Cesar Espinal — OGILVIE

Cesar Espinal P ACL Brewers

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.47

FIP5.47

K%19.7%

BB%15.9%

K-BB%3.8%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	11	0	20	92	16	14	1	0%	1.8	11.8%	19.0%	-7.2%	1.8%	5.49	5.51	—
2022	16	ROK RAW	DSL BAL Black	11	0	20	92	16	14	1	0%	1.8	17.4%	15.2%	2.2%	1.1%	5.49	4.27	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	9	8	34	136	34	11	2	89%	3.8	17.0%	10.1%	6.9%	2.4%	3.18	4.28	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	9	8	34	136	34	11	2	89%	3.8	17.0%	10.1%	6.9%	2.4%	3.18	4.28	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	9	8	34	136	34	11	2	89%	3.8	25.0%	8.1%	16.9%	1.5%	3.18	2.84	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	5	19	93	23	19	1	45%	1.8	16.8%	25.5%	-8.7%	1.5%	3.72	5.75	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	5	19	93	23	19	1	45%	1.8	16.8%	25.5%	-8.7%	1.5%	3.72	5.75	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	11	5	19	93	23	19	1	45%	1.8	24.7%	20.4%	4.3%	1.1%	3.72	4.34	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	14	0	15	79	12	10	2	0%	1.1	10.3%	15.8%	-5.5%	3.7%	7.20	6.24	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	14	0	15	79	12	10	2	0%	1.1	10.3%	15.8%	-5.5%	3.7%	7.20	6.24	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	14	0	15	79	12	10	2	0%	1.1	15.2%	12.7%	2.5%	2.5%	7.20	5.23	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	24	0	30	125	35	26	3	0%	1.2	19.5%	18.7%	0.9%	4.8%	3.94	6.47	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	24	0	30	125	35	26	3	0%	1.2	19.5%	18.7%	0.9%	4.8%	3.94	6.47	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	MIL	15	0	21	87	25	13	3	0%	1.4	28.7%	14.9%	13.8%	3.4%	4.64	4.46	—
2026	20	A RAW	MIL	9	0	8	38	10	13	0	0%	0.9	26.3%	34.2%	-7.9%	0.0%	2.16	5.21	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIL	29	0	31	129	27	18	4	0%	1.1	20.6%	13.8%	6.8%	2.9%	5.20	5.10	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIL	14	0	15	63	13	9	2	0%	1.1	20.6%	13.8%	6.8%	2.9%	5.20	5.10	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	64	13	9	2	0%	1.1	20.6%	13.8%	6.8%	2.9%	5.20	4.71	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	120	27	0%	1.1	20.6%	13.8%	6.8%	2.9%	5.20	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		69	13	118	525	82	91	15	19%	1.7	15.7%	17.3%	-1.6%	2.9%	4.36	5.57	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	22	200	892	140	154	26	19%	1.7	15.7%	17.3%	-1.6%	2.9%	4.36	5.57	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cesar Espinal (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.47	19.7%	15.9%	3.0%	—	5.10	20.6%	6.8%	31	-0.37	—	—	—
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	86
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	86
Jonathan Jimenez R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	19	SU	5.41	16.4%	16.2%	3.0%	.333	5.09	14.1%	2.2%	178	-0.32	3.49	189	86
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	85
Tim Naughton R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	21	SU	4.53	17.9%	15.6%	1.8%	.312	3.58	20.7%	6.4%	83	-0.95	2.93	305	85
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	85
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	84
Michael Brewer R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	20	SU	4.30	23.7%	16.2%	2.1%	.303	4.69	19.7%	6.3%	114	+0.39	3.14	144	84
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	84
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	84
Alejandro Méndez R 2021 · 5.70 FIP	20	SU	5.70	14.6%	14.5%	3.6%	.321	5.60	15.8%	-7.5%	91	-0.10	4.65	136	83
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	83
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	83
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.10	167	83
Elison Joseph R 2021 · 5.31 FIP	20	SU	5.31	17.4%	19.2%	2.3%	.254	4.55	23.5%	6.8%	133	-0.76	3.32	217	83
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	82
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	82
Gerson Moreno R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	20	SU	4.48	18.6%	14.8%	2.0%	.278	4.13	23.0%	9.1%	67	-0.35	3.44	349	82
Ismael Aquino R 2019 · 4.89 FIP	20	SU	4.89	17.0%	16.5%	2.1%	.354	5.58	14.1%	-1.5%	14	+0.69	3.99	122	82
Devon Fisher R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.333	5.76	15.1%	0.9%	88	+1.37	4.39	102	82