Paul Gervase

P Oklahoma City Comets

Age 27 RHP 6'10" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	AATB	37	0	45	3.38	2.33	40.5%	9.5%	—	K 32.8% · BB 10.4% · FIP 3.46
2025	25	MIX2 levels	49	1	68	3.72	4.25	30.6%	11.3%	0.2	K 27.7% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.29
2026	26	MIX2 levels	43	0	57	4.29	3.96	30.2%	16.3%	0.4	K 26.8% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.38
2027PROJ	27	MLBLAD	40	0	42	4.65	4.65	27.4%	13.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ79% MLB	28	MLBLAD	37	0	39	4.66	4.70	26.9%	13.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ84% MLB	29	MLBLAD	34	0	36	4.73	4.80	26.4%	13.3%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsJason Bulger (age 29) · Peyton Gray (age 26) · Jose De La Torre (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%27.4%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%13.7%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	11	55	16	7	1	0%	1.4	20.3%	16.2%	4.1%	2.7%	5.56	4.91	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	0	11	55	16	7	1	0%	1.4	29.1%	12.7%	16.4%	1.8%	5.56	3.28	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	57	249	96	42	1	0%	1.5	28.0%	20.9%	7.1%	0.0%	2.05	3.38	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	57	249	96	42	1	0%	1.5	38.6%	16.9%	21.7%	0.4%	2.05	2.17	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	37	0	45	190	77	18	5	0%	1.2	32.8%	10.4%	22.4%	3.3%	3.38	3.46	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	37	0	45	190	77	18	5	0%	1.2	32.8%	10.4%	22.4%	3.3%	3.38	3.46	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	37	0	45	190	77	18	5	0%	1.2	40.5%	9.5%	31.1%	2.6%	3.38	2.33	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	68	284	87	32	12	2%	1.4	27.7%	9.6%	18.2%	4.2%	3.72	4.29	+0.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	68	284	87	32	12	2%	1.4	27.7%	9.6%	18.2%	4.2%	3.72	4.29	+0.2
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	1	68	284	87	32	12	2%	1.4	30.6%	11.3%	19.4%	4.2%	3.72	4.25	+0.2
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	57	252	76	41	6	0%	1.3	26.8%	14.9%	12.0%	3.0%	4.29	4.38	+0.1
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	57	252	76	41	6	0%	1.3	26.8%	14.9%	12.0%	3.0%	4.29	4.38	+0.1
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	57	252	76	41	6	0%	1.3	30.2%	16.3%	13.9%	2.4%	4.29	3.96	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	0	16	73	16	11	3	0%	1.6	21.9%	15.1%	6.8%	4.1%	3.38	5.60	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	LAD	40	0	42	177	49	24	6	0%	1.1	27.4%	13.7%	13.7%	3.2%	4.65	4.65	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAD	47	0	49	207	56	28	7	0%	1.0	26.9%	13.4%	13.5%	3.3%	4.66	4.70	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	LAD	41	0	43	181	48	24	6	0%	1.0	26.4%	13.3%	13.1%	3.4%	4.73	4.80	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAD	37	0	39	165	44	22	5	0%	1.1	26.9%	13.4%	13.5%	3.3%	4.66	4.70	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	LAD	34	0	36	152	40	20	5	0%	1.1	26.4%	13.3%	13.1%	3.4%	4.73	4.80	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		81	0	91	390	100	53	14	0%	1.1	25.7%	13.6%	12.1%	3.5%	4.46	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		179	0	200	856	220	116	31	0%	1.1	25.7%	13.6%	12.1%	3.5%	4.46	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		175	1	238	1030	290	145	27	1%	1.4	28.1%	14.1%	14.0%	2.7%	3.48	3.97	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	1	200	866	243	122	23	1%	1.4	28.1%	14.1%	14.0%	2.7%	3.48	3.97	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 49 IPFIP 4.07 → 4.38 (+0.31)K% 31.2% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.19%	—	×0.860	26.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.51%	—	×0.900	14.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.03%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.07 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 59 IPFIP 3.74 → 4.29 (+0.55)K% 32.2% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.24%	—	×0.860	27.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.61%	—	×0.900	9.55%
HR / BF /BF	3.67%	÷0.956	×1.100	4.23%

Result: FIP 3.74 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 45 IPFIP 2.32 → 3.46 (+1.13)K% 40.5% → 32.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.53%	—	×0.810	32.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.47%	—	×1.100	10.42%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.958	×1.200	3.30%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.32 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 47 IPFIP 2.33 → 3.38 (+1.05)K% 36.4% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.36%	—	×0.770	28.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×1.150	20.91%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.054	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 2.33 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 10 IPFIP 1.52 → 2.85 (+1.34)K% 50.0% → 40.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	50.00%	—	×0.810	40.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.100	11.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷0.925	×1.200	3.24%

Result: FIP 1.52 → 2.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASt. Lucie Mets · 10 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.91 (+1.31)K% 27.5% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.45%	—	×0.740	20.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.73%	—	×1.180	16.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷0.949	×1.300	2.69%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Gervase (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.75	26.6%	13.3%	92	+0.10	—	—	—
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	87
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	84
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	82
Anthony Varvaro R 2012 · 3.66 FIP	27	SU	3.66	27.6%	10.5%	2.8%	.311	3.30	17.7%	11.0%	139	-0.36	3.02	208	82
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	81
Scott Dohmann R 2005 · 4.93 FIP	27	SU	4.93	24.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.321	4.69	18.9%	7.5%	96	-0.24	4.28	173	81
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	81
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	81
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	79
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	79
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	79
Brooks Kriske R 2021 · 4.95 FIP	27	SU	4.95	28.6%	12.1%	5.0%	.261	4.27	30.0%	17.8%	88	-0.68	3.09	246	77
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	77
Colin McKee R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	29.3%	13.5%	4.1%	.302	4.40	16.6%	-4.7%	14	-0.20	4.18	148	77
Brian Sanches R 2006 · 5.30 FIP	27	SU	5.30	22.4%	10.2%	5.1%	.295	4.52	19.0%	10.1%	82	-0.78	3.39	229	77
Logan Boyer R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	26	SU	3.71	25.0%	12.3%	2.1%	.267	4.65	17.5%	3.5%	54	+0.94	3.71	121	77
Jesus Cruz R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	27	SU	4.50	28.4%	13.9%	3.7%	.258	3.94	18.6%	8.1%	61	-0.56	3.15	293	76
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	75
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	75
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	26.4%	13.6%	1.30	4.55
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*