Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Braves | 16 | 0 | 26 | 117 | 30 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.4% | 19.2% | -1.8% | 2.2% | 2.73 | 5.25 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Braves | 16 | 0 | 26 | 117 | 30 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.6% | 15.4% | 10.3% | 1.7% | 2.73 | 3.86 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 34 | 160 | 44 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.6% | 20.3% | -0.7% | 1.5% | 4.46 | 4.86 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 34 | 160 | 44 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.5% | 16.9% | 10.6% | 1.2% | 4.46 | 3.65 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 38 | 0 | 46 | 215 | 66 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.7% | 17.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.72 | 5.78 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 38 | 0 | 46 | 215 | 66 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.7% | 14.4% | 16.3% | 3.3% | 5.72 | 4.24 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 76 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.8% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 1.5% | 2.04 | 3.45 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 76 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 34.1% | 12.6% | 21.5% | 0.9% | 2.04 | 2.31 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | 37 | 0 | 40 | 187 | 57 | 41 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 24.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 4.31 | 4.07 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | 37 | 0 | 40 | 187 | 57 | 41 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.5% | 21.9% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 4.31 | 3.33 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | 20 | 0 | 24 | 116 | 24 | 34 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.8% | 32.9% | -16.1% | 1.4% | 3.80 | 6.61 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ATL | 25 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 27 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 14.9% | 9.4% | 2.4% | 4.62 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ATL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 14.9% | 9.4% | 2.4% | 4.62 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 50 | 227 | 51 | 51 | 4 | — | — | 22.4% | 22.2% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 4.23 | 5.56 | -0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 24.3% | 14.9% | 9.4% | 2.4% | 4.62 | 4.24 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 25 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 27 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 14.3% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 4.57 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 14.3% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 4.57 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 14.3% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 4.57 | 4.19 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 116 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 14.3% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 4.57 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 178 | 0 | 223 | 1018 | 226 | 206 | 20 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.2% | 20.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.84 | 4.84 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 160 | 0 | 200 | 914 | 203 | 185 | 18 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.2% | 20.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.84 | 4.84 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Elison Joseph (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 24.3% | 14.9% | 2.4% | — | 4.57 | 24.4% | 10.1% | 26 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 89 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.00 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 1.9% | .284 | 2.56 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 165 | -1.44 | 1.52 | 452 | 87 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.02 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .305 | 7.93 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 58 | +3.91 | 3.54 | 153 | 86 |
| Justin Evans R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 1.5% | .323 | 4.80 | 16.4% | -7.9% | 14 | +1.07 | 3.73 | 105 | 86 |
| Matt Blackham R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 24.9% | 15.7% | 1.7% | .236 | 4.88 | 25.9% | 12.0% | 80 | +0.98 | 2.08 | 187 | 86 |
| Craig Brooks R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.02 | 23.4% | 15.1% | 1.8% | .260 | 5.40 | 31.1% | 15.9% | 59 | +1.38 | 3.30 | 229 | 85 |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.39 | 21.5% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.55 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 79 | +0.16 | 3.96 | 242 | 85 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 85 |
| Kyle Grana R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.67 | 21.7% | 13.9% | 1.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 109 | 85 |
| Dakota Mekkes R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 16.7% | 1.8% | 70 | +0.30 | 2.99 | 246 | 85 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2025 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 104 | 85 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.58 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 1.2% | .292 | 4.32 | 19.8% | 4.5% | 61 | +0.74 | 3.58 | 169 | 84 |
| Kyle Hill R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.7% | 14.9% | 1.2% | .282 | 4.92 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 73 | +1.18 | 3.62 | 156 | 84 |
| Jake Haberer R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 26.9% | 17.3% | 1.1% | .278 | 6.08 | 19.6% | 3.0% | 76 | +2.46 | 3.62 | 183 | 84 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 84 |
| Nick Ernst R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 84 |
| Carter Loewen R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 23.1% | 15.0% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.25 | 20.0% | 11.9% | 23 | -0.07 | 2.67 | 145 | 84 |
| Ben Hecht R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 84 |
| Cameron Gann R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 84 |
| Trey Benton R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.68 | 23.8% | 13.9% | 3.3% | .366 | 2.92 | 18.1% | 7.4% | 31 | -1.76 | 2.92 | 139 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 24.3% | 14.6% | 0.93 | 4.59 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |