Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | DSL D-backs 1 | 16 | 3 | 40 | 154 | 58 | 14 | 1 | 19% | 2.5 | 25.6% | 11.4% | 14.2% | 0.9% | 1.57 | 2.88 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | DSL D-backs 1 | 16 | 3 | 40 | 154 | 58 | 14 | 1 | 19% | 2.5 | 37.7% | 9.1% | 28.6% | 0.6% | 1.57 | 1.58 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Kane County Cougars | 7 | 0 | 17 | 66 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 2.4 | 12.3% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 1.08 | 2.96 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Kane County Cougars | 7 | 0 | 17 | 66 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 2.4 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 10.6% | 0.0% | 1.08 | 2.50 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 19 | 0 | 24 | 104 | 25 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.5% | 15.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.12 | 4.90 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 19 | 0 | 24 | 104 | 25 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.0% | 13.5% | 10.6% | 1.9% | 4.12 | 3.85 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 48 | 1 | 65 | 270 | 85 | 22 | 8 | 2% | 1.4 | 29.3% | 9.1% | 20.2% | 3.7% | 3.86 | 3.79 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 48 | 1 | 65 | 270 | 85 | 22 | 8 | 2% | 1.4 | 31.5% | 8.1% | 23.3% | 3.0% | 3.86 | 3.10 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 8 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | 7.36 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 9.3% | 19.2% | 3.3% | 4.02 | 4.05 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 9.3% | 19.2% | 3.3% | 4.02 | 4.05 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 31 | 136 | 35 | 17 | 7 | — | — | 25.6% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 5.4% | 4.80 | 3.10 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 26 | 109 | 35 | 17 | 7 | — | — | 32.2% | 16.0% | 16.1% | 6.7% | 5.86 | 6.12 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 34 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 9.6% | 17.6% | 3.5% | 4.20 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 9.6% | 17.6% | 3.5% | 4.20 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 76 | 0 | 79 | 341 | 91 | 36 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 10.6% | 16.1% | 4.2% | 4.60 | 4.50 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 192 | 0 | 200 | 859 | 230 | 91 | 35 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 10.6% | 16.1% | 4.2% | 4.60 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 98 | 4 | 153 | 629 | 152 | 71 | 18 | 4% | 1.6 | 24.1% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 3.17 | 4.05 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 128 | 5 | 200 | 820 | 198 | 93 | 23 | 4% | 1.6 | 24.1% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 3.17 | 4.05 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yaramil Hiraldo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.05 | 28.5% | 9.3% | 3.3% | — | 4.30 | 27.2% | 17.6% | 36 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.66 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.61 | 3.05 | 176 | 83 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.04 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 281 | 81 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 80 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 80 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 80 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 78 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 78 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 77 |
| C.C. Lee R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.96 | 28.4% | 9.6% | 1.9% | .359 | 3.00 | 34.7% | 25.6% | 25 | +0.04 | 2.50 | 121 | 77 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.05 | 26.0% | 6.2% | 4.3% | .288 | 4.80 | 17.7% | 9.1% | 118 | +0.75 | 2.90 | 227 | 77 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 76 |
| Blake Parker R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 28.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.84 | 28.4% | 21.3% | 195 | +0.48 | 2.61 | 339 | 76 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.90 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 3.4% | .282 | 3.17 | 28.4% | 19.9% | 104 | -0.73 | 2.33 | 445 | 75 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 74 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 74 |
| James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.08 | 30.4% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .338 | 3.26 | 24.7% | 15.1% | 87 | +0.18 | 1.60 | 312 | 73 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 73 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 2.99 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.99 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .280 | 3.50 | 23.7% | 15.4% | 87 | +0.51 | 2.39 | 332 | 73 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2027 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 73 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.23 | 26.0% | 8.6% | 2.3% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 178 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 31 | 27.7% | 9.5% | 1.31 | 4.12 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |