Manuel Alvarez — OGILVIE

Manuel Alvarez P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%21.6%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	A MLE	Lake County Captains	12	0	11	54	10	7	1	0%	0.9	13.7%	15.3%	-1.6%	2.2%	10.97	5.11	—
2018	22	A RAW	Lake County Captains	12	0	11	54	10	7	1	0%	0.9	18.5%	13.0%	5.6%	1.9%	10.97	4.41	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	55	250	67	39	3	0%	1.3	20.1%	18.3%	1.8%	1.6%	3.74	4.58	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	55	250	67	39	3	0%	1.3	26.8%	15.6%	11.2%	1.2%	3.74	3.50	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	43	214	59	44	4	3%	1.2	24.4%	19.5%	4.9%	3.2%	7.33	5.26	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	1	43	214	59	44	4	3%	1.2	27.6%	20.6%	7.0%	1.9%	7.33	4.63	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	41	206	50	33	4	0%	1.2	20.2%	17.1%	3.2%	2.7%	7.75	5.02	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	41	206	50	33	4	0%	1.2	24.3%	16.0%	8.3%	1.9%	7.75	4.35	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	2	15	81	11	21	1	17%	1.2	11.8%	26.6%	-14.9%	2.1%	12.27	6.63	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	2	15	81	11	21	1	17%	1.2	11.8%	26.6%	-14.9%	2.1%	12.27	6.63	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	2	15	81	11	21	1	17%	1.2	13.6%	25.9%	-12.3%	1.2%	12.27	6.78	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	NYM	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	21.6%	12.3%	9.3%	3.0%	4.86	4.86	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	NYM	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.3%	12.3%	9.0%	3.2%	4.92	5.00	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	NYM	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	12.3%	9.0%	3.2%	4.92	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	12.3%	9.0%	3.2%	4.92	4.62	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	21.3%	12.3%	9.0%	3.2%	4.92	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		136	3	164	805	161	152	19	2%	1.2	20.0%	18.9%	1.1%	2.4%	6.90	5.12	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		166	4	200	980	196	185	23	2%	1.2	20.0%	18.9%	1.1%	2.4%	6.90	5.12	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Alvarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	21.6%	12.3%	3.0%	—	5.00	21.3%	9.0%	20	+0.14	—	—	—
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	89
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	88
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	82
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	82
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	80
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	79
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	76
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	76
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	75
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	74
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	74
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	74
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	73
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	73
Louis Coleman R 2016 · 3.87 FIP	30	SU	3.87	21.3%	10.4%	2.3%	.288	3.63	22.0%	10.9%	144	-0.24	3.10	256	72
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	72
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	72
Taylor Williams R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	30	SU	5.96	19.9%	14.1%	5.0%	.261	3.81	18.7%	8.9%	101	-2.15	2.51	309	72
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	72
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	72