Gerson Moreno — OGILVIE

Gerson Moreno P Memphis Redbirds

Age 30 RHP 6'0" / 218 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%21.6%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	5	0	9	31	9	3	0	0%	1.9	29.0%	9.7%	19.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.87	—
2015	19	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	5	0	9	31	9	3	0	0%	1.9	29.0%	9.7%	19.4%	0.0%	0.00	2.14	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	50	219	54	28	4	0%	1.1	18.6%	14.8%	3.8%	2.0%	3.99	4.48	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	50	219	54	28	4	0%	1.1	24.7%	12.8%	11.9%	1.8%	3.99	3.66	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	50	221	66	24	5	0%	1.2	23.6%	12.1%	11.5%	2.0%	4.47	3.76	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	50	221	66	24	5	0%	1.2	29.9%	10.9%	19.0%	2.3%	4.47	3.20	—
2018	22	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	14	0	17	80	21	14	2	0%	1.2	21.3%	19.2%	2.0%	2.7%	5.29	5.22	—
2018	22	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	14	0	17	80	21	14	2	0%	1.2	26.2%	17.5%	8.8%	2.5%	5.29	4.63	—
2019	23	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers East	7	6	7	32	7	5	0	86%	1.0	21.9%	15.6%	6.2%	0.0%	8.10	3.23	—
2019	23	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers East	7	6	7	32	7	5	0	86%	1.0	21.9%	15.6%	6.2%	0.0%	8.10	3.25	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	49	220	73	29	9	0%	1.3	27.0%	12.9%	14.1%	5.0%	4.59	5.21	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	49	220	73	29	9	0%	1.3	33.2%	13.2%	20.0%	4.1%	4.59	4.28	—
2022	26	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	48	1	57	237	96	31	5	2%	1.2	32.8%	14.4%	18.4%	2.7%	3.32	3.65	—
2022	26	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	48	1	57	237	96	31	5	2%	1.2	40.5%	13.1%	27.4%	2.1%	3.32	2.50	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	59	0	72	305	91	46	5	0%	1.2	24.8%	13.6%	11.2%	1.7%	3.14	3.66	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	59	0	72	305	91	46	5	0%	1.2	24.8%	13.6%	11.2%	1.7%	3.14	3.66	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	59	0	72	305	91	46	5	0%	1.2	29.8%	15.1%	14.8%	1.6%	3.14	3.39	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	37	1	42	181	43	29	7	3%	1.1	19.7%	14.4%	5.3%	4.2%	6.00	5.59	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	37	1	42	181	43	29	7	3%	1.1	19.7%	14.4%	5.3%	4.2%	6.00	5.59	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	37	1	42	181	43	29	7	3%	1.1	23.8%	16.0%	7.7%	3.9%	6.00	5.29	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	14	0	15	60	15	11	0	0%	1.0	20.8%	16.5%	4.3%	0.0%	1.23	3.44	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	14	0	15	60	15	11	0	0%	1.0	20.8%	16.5%	4.3%	0.0%	1.23	3.44	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	14	0	15	60	15	11	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	18.3%	6.7%	0.0%	1.23	3.30	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	7	0	7	34	8	5	2	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	5.14	—	—
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	7	0	7	34	8	5	2	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	5.14	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	ROK RAW	STL	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	STL	6	0	6	31	6	5	2	0%	1.0	19.4%	16.1%	3.2%	6.5%	6.00	7.05	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	STL	19	0	20	84	18	12	3	0%	1.1	21.4%	13.7%	7.7%	3.1%	5.00	5.08	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	STL	7	0	7	30	6	4	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	13.7%	7.7%	3.1%	5.00	5.08	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	4	1	0%	1.1	21.4%	13.7%	7.7%	3.1%	5.00	4.70	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	109	27	0%	1.1	21.4%	13.7%	7.7%	3.1%	5.00	4.70	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		313	8	374	1620	395	228	43	3%	1.2	24.4%	14.1%	10.3%	2.7%	4.04	4.29	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	4	200	866	211	122	23	3%	1.2	24.4%	14.1%	10.3%	2.7%	4.04	4.29	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gerson Moreno (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	21.6%	13.8%	2.8%	—	5.08	21.4%	7.8%	20	+0.14	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	89
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	86
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	86
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	80
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	78
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	77
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	75
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	75
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	74
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	73
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	73
Cody Hall R 2018 · 3.92 FIP	30	SU	3.92	25.9%	17.5%	1.5%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	134	73
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	73
Louis Coleman R 2016 · 3.87 FIP	30	SU	3.87	21.3%	10.4%	2.3%	.288	3.63	22.0%	10.9%	144	-0.24	3.10	256	72
Roman Mendez R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SU	4.42	20.8%	11.1%	3.0%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	230	72
Taylor Williams R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	30	SU	5.96	19.9%	14.1%	5.0%	.261	3.81	18.7%	8.9%	101	-2.15	2.51	309	72
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	72
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	72
Daniel Hudson R 2017 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	24.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.301	4.01	24.1%	15.2%	140	-0.06	1.68	468	72
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	71