Tim Naughton
P
Erie SeaWolves
+0.3
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.24
FIP4.24
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.8%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%13.7%
IP35
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 17 | 0 | 17 | 80 | 21 | 10 | 1 | 17.9% | 15.6% | 1.7% | 3.71 | 4.53 | +0.1 |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 24 | 0 | 32 | 157 | 33 | 22 | 1 | 15.6% | 16.5% | 1.0% | 4.45 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 47 | 0 | 52 | 236 | 74 | 26 | 2 | 24.0% | 13.0% | 0.6% | 2.79 | 3.06 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 36 | 0 | 44 | 205 | 58 | 39 | 4 | 22.9% | 20.9% | 2.0% | 5.36 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 16 | 0 | 18 | 83 | 25 | 15 | 3 | 26.5% | 19.0% | 4.1% | 5.60 | 5.51 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 36 | 3 | 51 | 214 | 60 | 19 | 5 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 43 | 0 | 60 | 256 | 73 | 33 | 4 | 23.1% | 14.2% | 2.0% | 3.00 | 4.06 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 21 | 0 | 35 | 142 | 43 | 13 | 2 | 25.6% | 8.3% | 1.7% | 2.57 | 2.92 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | DET | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 35 | 15 | 4 | 23.8% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | DET | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 23.5% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | DET | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 23.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | DET | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | DET | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 240 | 3 | 308 | 1373 | 308 | 197 | 25 | 22.5% | 14.3% | 1.8% | 3.86 | 4.02 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 156 | 2 | 200 | 892 | 200 | 128 | 16 | 22.5% | 14.3% | 1.8% | 3.86 | 4.02 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tim Naughton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.24 | 23.8% | 10.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.41 | 23.2% | 13.0% | 98 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 91 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 84 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 83 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 82 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 82 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2027 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 81 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 80 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 80 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 80 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 80 |
| Jose De La Torre R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.08 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.5% | .248 | 2.59 | 20.5% | 14.7% | 19 | -0.49 | 2.59 | 130 | 79 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 79 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.56 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +1.17 | 2.72 | 392 | 79 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 79 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 79 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 78 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 78 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.06 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .301 | 3.94 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | -0.12 | 1.69 | 468 | 78 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 78 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.