Nick Kuzia — OGILVIE

Nick Kuzia P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%20.5%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 2	16	0	21	99	24	12	2	0%	1.3	16.5%	15.2%	1.3%	2.8%	4.35	5.18	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	AZL Padres 2	16	0	21	99	24	12	2	0%	1.3	24.2%	12.1%	12.1%	2.0%	4.35	3.78	—
2018	22	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	2	0	7	26	4	1	3	0%	3.3	15.4%	3.8%	11.5%	11.5%	4.05	8.62	—
2018	22	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	2	0	7	26	4	1	3	0%	3.3	15.4%	3.8%	11.5%	11.5%	4.05	8.20	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	0	60	270	62	26	11	0%	1.6	17.6%	11.0%	6.6%	4.3%	4.65	5.35	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	0	60	270	62	26	11	0%	1.6	23.0%	9.6%	13.3%	4.1%	4.65	4.72	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	53	219	71	26	5	0%	1.3	25.3%	12.6%	12.7%	3.6%	3.42	4.54	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	53	219	71	26	5	0%	1.3	32.4%	11.9%	20.5%	2.3%	3.42	3.12	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	56	255	54	30	6	2%	1.4	18.0%	13.9%	4.0%	3.5%	4.98	5.28	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	56	255	54	30	6	2%	1.4	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	2.4%	4.98	4.17	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	45	0	55	248	51	29	5	0%	1.2	16.7%	12.9%	3.8%	2.3%	5.24	4.60	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	45	0	55	248	51	29	5	0%	1.2	16.7%	12.9%	3.8%	2.3%	5.24	4.60	—
2023	27	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	45	0	55	248	51	29	5	0%	1.2	20.6%	11.7%	8.9%	2.0%	5.24	4.01	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	COL	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.9%	9.6%	3.0%	4.76	4.76	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	COL	33	0	35	147	30	16	5	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.1%	9.3%	3.2%	4.83	4.91	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	COL	10	0	11	46	9	5	1	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.1%	9.3%	3.2%	4.83	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	9	5	1	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.1%	9.3%	3.2%	4.83	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	92	18	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.1%	9.3%	3.2%	4.83	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		182	1	251	1117	210	141	40	1%	1.4	18.8%	12.6%	6.2%	3.6%	4.55	5.07	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	1	200	890	168	112	32	1%	1.4	18.8%	12.6%	6.2%	3.6%	4.55	5.07	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Kuzia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	20.5%	10.9%	3.0%	—	4.91	20.4%	9.3%	35	+0.15	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	91
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	90
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	88
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	85
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	85
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	84
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	83
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	83
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	83
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	82
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	82
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	82
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	79
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	79
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	78
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	77
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	77
Pedro Beato R 2017 · 3.86 FIP	30	SU	3.86	16.2%	8.7%	1.8%	.227	3.64	19.8%	13.1%	97	-0.22	3.47	295	77
Roman Mendez R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SU	4.42	20.8%	11.1%	3.0%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	230	77
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	20.5%	11.0%	1.19	4.79
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84