Miguel Ullola

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	28	24	130	4.28	3.45	31.1%	14.0%	—	K 25.2% · BB 15.1% · FIP 4.41
2025	23	AAAHOU	28	23	114	3.88	3.65	26.6%	15.9%	—	K 22.9% · BB 14.3% · FIP 3.87
2026	24	MIX2 levels	50	12	83	3.80	3.97	30.7%	13.6%	0.6	K 27.1% · BB 12.4% · FIP 4.29
2027PROJ	25	MLBHOU	45	0	47	4.49	4.71	26.1%	14.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ81% MLB	26	MLBHOU	68	0	71	4.56	4.64	25.9%	14.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ86% MLB	27	MLBHOU	67	0	70	4.60	4.65	25.6%	13.6%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

K%70

FB Velo54

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 3.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 83%

CompsJake Lee (age 24) · Mitch Neunborn (age 26) · Sean Mooney (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.49

FIP4.71

K%26.1%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%11.3%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p6327.4%

p7025.8%

xwOBA vs

p900.245

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	10	5	24	106	38	21	1	50%	2.4	24.4%	24.8%	-0.4%	1.3%	4.07	4.90	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	10	5	24	106	38	21	1	50%	2.4	35.8%	19.8%	16.0%	0.9%	4.07	3.10	—
2022	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	11	72	313	120	55	3	50%	3.3	28.4%	20.7%	7.6%	1.3%	3.25	4.05	—
2022	20	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	11	72	313	120	55	3	50%	3.3	38.3%	17.6%	20.8%	1.0%	3.25	2.60	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	13	91	419	116	63	12	52%	3.6	21.3%	17.3%	4.0%	2.9%	5.86	5.10	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	25	13	91	419	116	63	12	52%	3.6	27.7%	15.0%	12.6%	2.9%	5.86	4.35	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	130	549	171	77	12	86%	4.7	25.2%	15.1%	10.2%	2.8%	4.28	4.41	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	130	549	171	77	12	86%	4.7	25.2%	15.1%	10.2%	2.8%	4.28	4.41	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	130	549	171	77	12	86%	4.7	31.1%	14.0%	17.1%	2.2%	4.28	3.45	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	28	23	114	492	131	78	7	82%	4.1	22.9%	14.3%	8.6%	1.6%	3.88	3.87	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	28	23	114	492	131	78	7	82%	4.1	22.9%	14.3%	8.6%	1.6%	3.88	3.87	—
2025	23	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	28	23	114	492	131	78	7	82%	4.1	26.6%	15.9%	10.8%	1.4%	3.88	3.65	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	12	83	345	106	47	11	24%	1.7	27.1%	12.4%	14.7%	3.5%	3.80	4.29	+0.3
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	12	83	345	106	47	11	24%	1.7	27.1%	12.4%	14.7%	3.5%	3.80	4.29	+0.3
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	12	83	345	106	47	11	24%	1.7	30.7%	13.6%	17.1%	3.2%	3.80	3.97	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			11	2	17	62	16	5	2	18%	1.5	25.8%	8.1%	17.7%	3.2%	2.16	3.64	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	HOU	45	0	47	198	52	29	6	0%	1.0	26.1%	14.8%	11.3%	2.8%	4.49	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	83	0	88	369	96	52	11	0%	1.1	25.9%	14.0%	11.9%	2.9%	4.56	4.64	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	77	0	81	341	87	46	10	0%	1.0	25.6%	13.6%	12.0%	2.9%	4.60	4.65	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	HOU	73	0	77	325	82	44	10	0%	1.1	25.3%	13.5%	11.8%	3.0%	4.66	4.71	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	HOU	67	0	70	296	73	40	9	0%	1.0	24.6%	13.6%	11.1%	3.2%	4.78	4.86	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	HOU	60	0	63	265	63	37	9	0%	1.0	23.9%	13.9%	10.1%	3.4%	4.95	5.07	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	68	0	71	300	78	42	9	0%	1.0	25.9%	14.0%	11.9%	2.9%	4.56	4.64	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	67	0	70	296	76	40	9	0%	1.0	25.6%	13.6%	12.0%	2.9%	4.60	4.65	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	HOU	66	0	69	291	74	39	9	0%	1.0	25.3%	13.5%	11.8%	3.0%	4.66	4.71	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	HOU	61	0	64	270	67	37	9	0%	1.0	24.6%	13.6%	11.1%	3.2%	4.78	4.86	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	HOU	55	0	58	245	59	34	8	0%	1.1	23.9%	13.9%	10.1%	3.4%	4.95	5.07	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		327	2	348	1463	368	197	45	1%	1.1	25.2%	13.5%	11.7%	3.1%	4.58	4.36	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	1	200	840	211	113	26	1%	1.1	25.2%	13.5%	11.7%	3.1%	4.58	4.36	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		163	88	514	2224	549	359	53	54%	3.2	24.7%	16.2%	8.5%	2.4%	4.24	4.37	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	34	200	865	213	140	21	54%	3.2	24.7%	16.2%	8.5%	2.4%	4.24	4.37	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 66 IPFIP 4.04 → 4.40 (+0.36)K% 31.8% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.80%	—	×0.860	27.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.84%	—	×0.900	13.36%
HR / BF /BF	3.18%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.50%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.04 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 114 IPFIP 3.64 → 3.87 (+0.23)K% 26.6% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.63%	—	×0.860	22.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.85%	—	×0.900	14.27%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷0.961	×1.100	1.63%

Result: FIP 3.64 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 127 IPFIP 3.44 → 4.41 (+0.97)K% 31.1% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.14%	—	×0.810	25.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.70%	—	×1.100	15.07%
HR / BF /BF	2.25%	÷0.970	×1.200	2.78%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.44 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Asheville Tourists · 91 IPFIP 4.24 → 5.10 (+0.86)K% 27.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.68%	—	×0.770	21.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.04%	—	×1.150	17.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.218	×1.250	2.94%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 144).

Result: FIP 4.24 → 5.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 72 IPFIP 2.61 → 4.05 (+1.44)K% 38.3% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.34%	—	×0.740	28.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.57%	—	×1.180	20.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.96%	÷0.949	×1.300	1.31%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.61 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Astros · 24 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.90 (+1.80)K% 35.8% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.85%	—	×0.680	24.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.81%	—	×1.250	24.76%
HR / BF /BF	0.94%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.32%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Ullola (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.67	25.6%	11.9%	245	-0.04	—	—	—
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	74
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	74
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	73
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	73
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	72
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	72
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	72
Pierce Johnson R 2016 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	22.9%	15.7%	3.4%	.321	3.55	24.8%	13.4%	121	-1.48	2.75	598	70
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	70
Brandon Morrow R 2009 · 4.89 FIP	25	SW	4.89	20.1%	13.7%	3.2%	.284	3.37	25.5%	16.4%	450	-1.52	2.67	922	69
Cody Morris R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	25	SP-	3.74	31.3%	11.6%	3.3%	.256	4.45	23.6%	8.9%	72	+0.71	2.23	256	69
Michael King R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	25	SW	4.56	21.5%	9.1%	3.9%	.316	2.74	28.3%	20.8%	219	-1.82	1.97	1,024	68
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	68
Sean Douglass R 2004 · 4.94 FIP	25	SW	4.94	20.1%	13.4%	3.4%	.274	4.82	14.7%	6.4%	87	-0.12	4.81	200	68
Burch Smith R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	23	SP-	5.18	27.5%	12.0%	5.3%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	418	67
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	67
Peyton Pallette R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	.309	3.59	25.9%	13.5%	119	-0.79	3.54	273	67
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	67
Marcos Tineo R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	25	SW	4.57	22.2%	14.4%	2.8%	.320	7.13	7.8%	-24.1%	10	+2.56	3.52	273	66
Cole McDonald R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	25	SW	5.07	26.5%	19.8%	3.1%	.403	3.87	23.6%	11.6%	93	-1.20	2.81	153	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	77	25.3%	13.7%	1.17	4.57
Dennis Higgins ('66-'72, 1 WAR*)	2.1	82	24.5%*	12.2%*	0.94*	4.34*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57