Miguel Ullola
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.2 · 2028
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 50 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113
ERA4.98
FIP4.98
K%24.6%
BB%17.7%
K-BB%6.9%
ROS IP50
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | 10 | 5 | 24 | 106 | 38 | 21 | 1 | 50% | 2.4 | 24.4% | 24.8% | -0.4% | 1.3% | 4.07 | 4.90 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | 10 | 5 | 24 | 106 | 38 | 21 | 1 | 50% | 2.4 | 35.8% | 19.8% | 16.0% | 0.9% | 4.07 | 3.10 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 22 | 11 | 72 | 313 | 120 | 55 | 3 | 50% | 3.3 | 28.4% | 20.7% | 7.6% | 1.4% | 3.25 | 4.09 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 22 | 11 | 72 | 313 | 120 | 55 | 3 | 50% | 3.3 | 38.3% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 1.0% | 3.25 | 2.60 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 25 | 13 | 91 | 419 | 116 | 63 | 12 | 52% | 3.6 | 21.3% | 17.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 5.86 | 4.86 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 25 | 13 | 91 | 419 | 116 | 63 | 12 | 52% | 3.6 | 27.7% | 15.0% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 5.86 | 4.35 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 171 | 77 | 12 | 86% | 4.7 | 25.2% | 15.1% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.45 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 171 | 77 | 12 | 86% | 4.7 | 31.1% | 14.0% | 17.1% | 2.2% | 4.28 | 3.45 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 28 | 23 | 114 | 492 | 131 | 78 | 7 | 82% | 4.1 | 23.4% | 16.6% | 6.8% | 1.7% | 3.88 | 4.16 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 28 | 23 | 114 | 492 | 131 | 78 | 7 | 82% | 4.1 | 26.6% | 15.9% | 10.8% | 1.4% | 3.88 | 3.65 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | 25 | 10 | 54 | 234 | 75 | 35 | 8 | 40% | 2.2 | 27.2% | 16.7% | 10.5% | 4.0% | 4.83 | 5.11 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | HOU | 48 | 0 | 50 | 212 | 52 | 38 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 17.7% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 4.98 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | HOU | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 52 | 37 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 17.7% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 5.02 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 104 | 446 | 127 | 73 | 13 | — | — | 28.5% | 16.3% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 5.05 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 54 | 229 | 127 | 73 | 13 | — | — | 55.5% | 31.7% | 23.8% | 5.8% | 9.46 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 94 | 396 | 98 | 61 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.7% | 15.4% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 4.79 | 4.71 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 101 | 426 | 105 | 63 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.7% | 14.8% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 4.69 | 4.65 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 103 | 436 | 107 | 63 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.6% | 14.5% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.67 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 93 | 58 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.7% | 15.4% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 4.83 | 4.75 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 100 | 60 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 14.8% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 4.73 | 4.69 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 102 | 60 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.6% | 14.5% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.71 | 4.71 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 97 | 48 | 337 | 1421 | 354 | 216 | 36 | 49% | 3.5 | 24.9% | 15.2% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 4.74 | 4.33 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 28 | 200 | 843 | 210 | 128 | 21 | 49% | 3.5 | 24.9% | 15.2% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 4.74 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 138 | 86 | 485 | 2113 | 521 | 367 | 50 | 62% | 3.5 | 24.7% | 17.4% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 4.38 | 4.51 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 35 | 200 | 871 | 215 | 151 | 20 | 62% | 3.5 | 24.7% | 17.4% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 4.38 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Miguel Ullola (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.98 | 24.6% | 17.7% | 2.4% | — | 4.68 | 24.7% | 9.8% | 298 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 81 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 80 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.78 | 22.0% | 17.9% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.87 | 21.0% | 7.0% | 73 | +0.09 | 4.09 | 196 | 80 |
| Cory Lewis R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.23 | 20.9% | 19.5% | 2.6% | .354 | 5.34 | 19.5% | 4.8% | 44 | +0.11 | 3.39 | 284 | 79 |
| Ramsey David R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 78 |
| R.J. Freure R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.83 | 21.7% | 16.2% | 4.6% | .298 | 6.05 | 20.3% | 0.1% | 26 | +0.22 | 5.19 | 196 | 77 |
| Sean Mooney R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 76 |
| Niko Mazza R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.41 | 22.0% | 15.9% | 2.1% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 165 | 76 |
| Deylen Miley R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.65 | 21.7% | 18.4% | 1.9% | .320 | 5.05 | 22.3% | 4.8% | 88 | +0.40 | 2.07 | 185 | 74 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 74 |
| Andrew Lee R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.94 | 21.4% | 22.6% | 1.4% | .232 | 4.39 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 169 | -0.55 | 2.43 | 364 | 73 |
| Grant Ford R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 72 |
| Carlos Tavera R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.54 | 19.6% | 17.3% | 3.5% | .267 | 5.35 | 19.4% | 4.8% | 114 | -0.19 | 4.12 | 263 | 72 |
| Phillippe Aumont R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.64 | 19.6% | 18.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.31 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 64 | +0.67 | 4.64 | 147 | 72 |
| Jackson Finley R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.04 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 1.5% | .361 | 3.85 | 20.7% | 11.4% | 49 | -0.19 | 3.85 | 132 | 72 |
| Matt Ball R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 21.3% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 312 | 72 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 71 |
| Kevin Abel R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.01 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .347 | 4.69 | 17.8% | 4.1% | 319 | -0.32 | 4.41 | 421 | 71 |
| Danny Cody R 2026 · 6.00 FIP | 24 | SW | 6.00 | 20.5% | 15.0% | 5.0% | .369 | 6.37 | 11.4% | -6.9% | 37 | +0.37 | 6.00 | 106 | 71 |
| Jacob Odle R 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 25.2% | 17.0% | 3.3% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 104 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 88 | 24.7% | 15.4% | 0.97 | 4.76 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |