Miguel Ullola — OGILVIE

Miguel Ullola P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

+0.2 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.4 · 2028

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%23.7%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%9.0%

IP116

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.4peak

2028

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	19	ROK	FCL Astros	10	5	24	106	38	21	1	24.4%	24.8%	1.3%	4.07	4.90	+0.0
2022	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	11	72	313	120	55	3	28.4%	20.7%	1.3%	3.25	4.04	+0.8
2023	21	A+	Asheville Tourists	25	13	91	419	116	63	12	21.3%	17.3%	2.8%	5.86	5.04	+0.2
2024	22	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	28	24	130	549	171	77	12	25.2%	15.1%	2.8%	4.28	4.41	+1.3
2025	23	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	28	23	114	492	131	78	7	23.4%	16.6%	1.6%	3.88	4.12	+1.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	3	3	12	50	19	6	0	33.4%	12.6%	0.0%	2.19	1.87	+0.4
ROS	24	MLB	HOU	46	—	46	195	46	29	5	23.7%	14.7%	2.4%	4.66	4.66	+0.2
2026 Total	24	MLB	HOU	—	—	59	245	65	35	5	26.6%	14.1%	1.9%	4.14	4.07	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	HOU	23	23	129	544	130	70	13	23.9%	12.9%	2.4%	4.51	4.44	+1.3
2028	26	MLB	HOU	25	25	136	574	137	71	14	24.0%	12.4%	2.5%	4.44	4.40	+1.4
2029	27	MLB	HOU	25	25	139	586	140	72	15	23.9%	12.2%	2.5%	4.41	4.40	+1.4
2030	28	MLB	HOU	25	25	139	586	139	71	15	23.8%	12.2%	2.6%	4.42	4.42	+1.4
2031	29	MLB	HOU	25	25	136	573	136	70	15	23.7%	12.3%	2.6%	4.45	4.47	+1.3
2032	30	MLB	HOU	24	24	132	556	130	69	15	23.5%	12.4%	2.7%	4.50	4.53	+1.1
2033	31	MLB	HOU	23	23	127	536	125	67	15	23.2%	12.5%	2.7%	4.56	4.61	+1.0
2034	32	MLB	HOU	22	22	122	515	118	65	15	22.9%	12.6%	2.8%	4.64	4.69	+0.8
2035	33	MLB	HOU	21	21	116	491	111	63	14	22.6%	12.8%	2.9%	4.73	4.79	+0.7
2036	34	MLB	HOU	20	20	111	467	104	61	14	22.3%	13.0%	3.0%	4.83	4.90	+0.5
2037	35	MLB	HOU	19	19	104	440	96	58	14	21.9%	13.2%	3.1%	4.95	5.02	+0.3
2038	36	MLB	HOU	18	18	97	411	88	56	13	21.5%	13.5%	3.2%	5.08	5.16	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			116	79	443	1929	474	335	41	24.6%	17.3%	2.1%	4.26	4.38	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—			52	36	200	870	214	151	18	24.6%	17.3%	2.1%	4.26	4.38	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Ullola (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	23.7%	14.7%	2.4%	—	4.41	23.9%	11.4%	404	-0.25	—	—	—
Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.52	4.13	103	91
Eduardo Herrera R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	25.5%	15.7%	2.1%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.34	4.10	127	91
Dylan Heid R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	24	SU	4.72	21.6%	16.9%	2.4%	.287	3.33	22.6%	9.0%	103	-1.39	2.65	135	91
Dakota Mekkes R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	24	SU	4.57	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.86	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.29	2.95	246	90
Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.61	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.69	4.92	103	89
Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	23.9%	14.0%	2.8%	.301	4.39	26.1%	10.7%	96	-0.02	3.95	143	88
Tyler Schimpf R 2025 · 4.03 FIP	23	SU	4.03	24.3%	15.9%	1.8%	.300	5.65	24.1%	7.1%	58	+1.62	3.37	126	88
Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	3.00	24.2%	12.6%	70	-1.56	2.12	117	87
Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	24	SW	4.61	22.7%	15.4%	2.7%	.298	4.70	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.09	4.23	222	87
Jonathan Sprinkle R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	24.8%	16.3%	2.0%	.331	6.32	17.4%	-5.5%	26	+2.12	3.66	109	87
Colin McKee R 2026 · 5.04 FIP	24	SU	5.04	24.2%	14.7%	3.9%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.69	4.16	148	86
Magnus Ellerts R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	24	SU	4.40	26.3%	19.3%	2.0%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	139	85
Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.51	18.6%	4.7%	123	-0.35	4.05	164	84
Shane Broyles R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	24	SW	4.02	24.3%	15.3%	1.9%	.328	3.62	26.4%	17.1%	108	-0.40	3.30	218	84
Grayson Thurman R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	24	SU	4.71	19.5%	14.1%	2.7%	.319	4.82	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.11	4.56	132	84
Hunter Parsons R 2026 · 5.36 FIP	24	SU	5.36	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.84	21.9%	9.9%	115	-0.52	4.76	183	84
Tommy Kahnle R 2027 · 4.17 FIP	25	SW	4.17	23.8%	14.8%	2.2%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.59	1.53	433	84
Johnathan Lavallee R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	26.2%	14.9%	1.7%	.245	5.14	20.4%	2.2%	32	+1.43	3.71	148	84
Walker Brockhouse R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	21.7%	16.7%	1.5%	.301	5.15	18.7%	4.0%	42	+0.95	4.20	126	84
Carlos Contreras R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.48	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.31	107	84

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$12M	+$11M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.4	$12M	+$11M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+1.3	$12M	+$10M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.1	$11M	+$7M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.0	$10M	+$6M
Totals		$12M		$69M	+$57M