Michael King — OGILVIE

Michael King P San Diego Padres

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION175 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA3.74

FIP3.96

K%22.0%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 190 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p4624.7%

p4120.8%

xwOBA vs

p400.323

FB+2.5 (48%)

SL+2.4 (19%)

CT+1.1 (6%)

SI (28%)

CH (27%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	9	45	5	3	0	0%	1.9	11.1%	6.7%	4.4%	0.0%	5.79	3.01	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	9	45	5	3	0	0%	1.9	11.1%	6.7%	4.4%	0.0%	5.79	2.99	—
2017	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	26	25	149	597	106	21	14	96%	5.7	13.1%	4.2%	9.0%	2.6%	3.14	3.95	—
2017	22	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	26	25	149	597	106	21	14	96%	5.7	17.8%	3.5%	14.2%	2.3%	3.14	3.32	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	24	161	624	152	28	8	96%	6.5	19.8%	5.0%	14.8%	1.4%	1.79	2.84	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	24	161	624	152	28	8	96%	6.5	24.4%	4.5%	19.9%	1.3%	1.79	2.38	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	7	44	191	45	10	4	64%	4.0	19.6%	5.3%	14.2%	2.7%	5.73	3.60	+0.7
2019	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	11	7	44	191	45	10	4	64%	4.0	23.6%	5.2%	18.3%	2.1%	5.73	2.92	+1.1
2020	25	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	9	4	27	121	26	11	5	44%	3.0	21.5%	9.1%	12.4%	3.9%	7.76	4.56	-0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	9	4	27	121	26	11	5	44%	3.0	21.5%	9.1%	12.4%	4.1%	7.76	4.83	-0.1
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	7	69	298	73	23	7	28%	2.8	22.5%	8.4%	14.2%	2.0%	3.65	3.38	+1.0
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	7	69	298	73	23	7	28%	2.8	24.5%	7.7%	16.8%	2.3%	3.65	3.30	+1.0
2022	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	34	0	51	199	66	14	3	0%	1.5	33.2%	7.0%	26.1%	1.4%	2.29	1.97	+1.6
2022	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	34	0	51	199	66	14	3	0%	1.5	33.2%	7.0%	26.1%	1.5%	2.29	2.10	+1.5
2023	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	49	9	105	431	127	31	10	18%	2.1	29.5%	7.2%	22.3%	2.2%	2.75	2.72	+2.3
2023	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	49	9	105	431	127	31	10	18%	2.1	29.5%	7.2%	22.3%	2.2%	2.75	2.72	+2.3
2023	28	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	49	9	105	431	127	31	10	18%	2.1	29.5%	7.2%	22.3%	2.3%	2.75	2.80	+2.2
2024	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	31	30	174	726	201	61	17	97%	5.6	27.7%	8.4%	19.3%	2.3%	2.95	3.08	+3.9
2024	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	31	30	174	726	201	61	17	97%	5.6	27.7%	8.4%	19.3%	2.3%	2.95	3.08	+3.9
2024	29	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	31	30	174	726	201	61	17	97%	5.6	27.7%	8.4%	19.3%	2.3%	2.95	3.11	+3.9
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	77	324	81	27	14	100%	4.8	24.7%	8.4%	16.2%	3.8%	3.99	4.17	+0.7
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	77	324	81	27	14	100%	4.8	24.7%	8.4%	16.2%	3.8%	3.99	4.17	+0.7
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	77	324	81	27	14	100%	4.8	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	4.3%	3.99	4.42	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			191	94	670	2780	707	232	73	49%	3.5	25.4%	8.3%	17.1%	2.6%	3.19	3.44	+8.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	30	30	175	711	148	66	20	100%	5.8	20.8%	9.3%	11.5%	2.7%	3.03	4.02	+1.8
YTD	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	30	30	175	711	148	66	20	100%	5.8	20.8%	9.3%	11.5%	2.7%	3.03	4.02	+1.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	MLB RAW	SD	30	30	175	711	148	66	20	100%	5.8	20.8%	9.3%	11.5%	2.8%	3.03	4.06	+1.7
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	SD	30	30	175	711	148	66	20	100%	5.8	20.8%	9.3%	11.5%	2.8%	3.03	4.06	+1.7
ROS	31	MLB MLE	SD	3	3	15	65	14	6	2	100%	5.1	22.0%	9.0%	13.0%	2.9%	3.74	3.96	+0.2
ROS	31	MLB CTX	SD	2	2	15	63	14	6	2	100%	7.5	22.0%	9.0%	13.0%	2.9%	3.74	3.96	+0.2
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	190	776	162	72	22	—	—	20.9%	9.3%	11.7%	2.8%	3.09	4.02	+2.0
FULL	31	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	190	804	162	72	22	—	—	20.2%	8.9%	11.3%	2.7%	3.09	4.02	+2.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	92	388	84	36	12	100%	6.6	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	3.1%	4.36	4.55	+0.4
2028	33	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	84	356	74	35	12	100%	6.5	20.8%	9.8%	11.0%	3.4%	4.64	4.83	+0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	92	388	84	36	12	100%	6.6	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	3.1%	4.36	4.55	+0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	84	355	74	35	12	100%	6.5	20.8%	9.8%	11.0%	3.4%	4.64	4.83	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		221	124	861	3589	879	309	99	56%	3.9	24.5%	8.6%	15.9%	2.8%	3.46	3.64	+13.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		51	29	200	833	204	72	23	56%	3.9	24.5%	8.6%	15.9%	2.8%	3.46	3.64	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		261	152	1040	4267	959	304	101	58%	4.0	22.5%	7.1%	15.4%	2.4%	3.15	3.40	+12.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	29	200	820	184	58	19	58%	4.0	22.5%	7.1%	15.4%	2.4%	3.15	3.40	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael King (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.92	26.4%	8.3%	2.9%	—	4.68	21.3%	11.7%	176	+0.76	—	—	—
Brad Peacock R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	25.1%	8.1%	4.0%	.261	4.15	22.8%	12.5%	96	-0.07	2.97	533	70
Tom Koehler R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	31	SP-	4.66	22.4%	9.0%	4.2%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	474	66
Dillon Gee R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP-	3.85	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	380	62
Chase Anderson R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	31	SP	4.39	20.9%	8.1%	3.7%	.259	5.39	19.2%	10.0%	218	+1.00	3.30	1,146	62
Phil Hughes R 2017 · 5.04 FIP	31	SP-	5.04	15.6%	4.5%	4.9%	.328	5.95	21.1%	15.2%	33	+0.91	4.62	301	61
Yu Darvish R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	31	SP	4.50	27.2%	11.7%	4.0%	.282	3.48	30.5%	24.0%	421	-1.02	1.97	1,253	58
Matt Cain R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	31	SP-	4.95	18.1%	7.8%	4.4%	.313	4.82	13.2%	5.6%	124	-0.13	4.82	294	58
Mike Wright Jr. R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	31	SP-	3.89	19.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.237	4.79	14.4%	1.1%	56	+0.90	3.76	725	57
Tyson Ross R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	19.2%	9.1%	2.9%	.263	5.68	15.4%	4.3%	35	+1.46	2.76	449	56
Bud Norris R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	31	SP-	4.00	20.6%	9.1%	2.7%	.305	3.58	27.5%	19.3%	120	-0.42	3.51	316	56
Garrett Richards R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	30	SP	3.99	26.9%	10.5%	3.3%	.276	4.36	19.4%	10.3%	188	+0.37	2.31	577	56
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	55
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	55
Félix Hernández R 2017 · 4.56 FIP	31	SP	4.56	22.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.278	5.08	18.0%	9.7%	227	+0.52	3.60	682	54
Lance Lynn R 2018 · 3.51 FIP	31	SP	3.51	23.0%	10.4%	1.9%	.330	3.13	27.5%	20.7%	449	-0.38	2.85	1,390	54
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	54
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	54
Kyle Gibson R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	31	SP	3.97	22.7%	7.9%	3.2%	.325	3.91	20.2%	12.4%	417	-0.06	3.56	1,689	54
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	53
Casey Lawrence R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	30	SP-	3.77	18.1%	4.4%	3.0%	.305	4.08	20.0%	14.8%	86	+0.31	3.57	1,365	53

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	92	23.1%	9.1%	1.21	4.21
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34