Michael King
P
San Diego Padres
+1.6
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 1.6 · 2026
ERA3.50
FIP3.84
xFIP4.56
SIERA4.42
K%26.2%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%17.8%
IP99
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.6peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p6026.9%
K%
p5523.2%
xwOBA vs
p390.325
FB+2.5 (47%)
SL+2.4 (21%)
CT+1.1 (5%)
SI (27%)
CH (27%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 5 | 0 | 9 | 45 | 5 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.79 | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 26 | 25 | 149 | 597 | 106 | 21 | 14 | 13.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.14 | 3.98 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 25 | 24 | 161 | 624 | 152 | 28 | 8 | 19.8% | 5.0% | 1.4% | 1.79 | 2.84 | +4.5 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 11 | 7 | 44 | 191 | 45 | 10 | 4 | 19.6% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 5.73 | 3.62 | +0.7 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | New York Yankees | 9 | 4 | 27 | 121 | 26 | 11 | 5 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 7.76 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | 25 | 7 | 69 | 298 | 73 | 23 | 7 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 3.65 | 3.46 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 34 | 0 | 51 | 199 | 66 | 14 | 3 | 33.2% | 7.0% | 1.4% | 2.29 | 1.98 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 49 | 9 | 105 | 431 | 127 | 31 | 10 | 29.5% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 2.75 | 2.68 | +3.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 31 | 30 | 174 | 726 | 201 | 61 | 17 | 27.7% | 8.4% | 2.1% | 2.95 | 2.99 | +4.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 16 | 16 | 77 | 324 | 81 | 27 | 14 | 24.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 3.99 | 3.98 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 4 | 4 | 23 | 93 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 1.1% | 2.78 | 3.24 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 77 | 324 | 80 | 29 | 8 | 24.6% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 3.08 | 3.53 | +1.4 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | SD | — | — | 99 | 417 | 100 | 39 | 9 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 2.2% | 3.01 | 3.46 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 95 | 402 | 97 | 36 | 10 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 3.80 | 4.03 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 91 | 384 | 90 | 36 | 10 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 4.16 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | SD | 16 | 16 | 86 | 365 | 83 | 34 | 10 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.30 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 82 | 344 | 75 | 33 | 10 | 21.9% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.45 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 76 | 322 | 74 | 29 | 10 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 37 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 67 | 28 | 9 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.51 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 38 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 59 | 27 | 9 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.70 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 235 | 126 | 888 | 3649 | 831 | 248 | 80 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 2.2% | 3.16 | 3.24 | +20.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 28 | 200 | 822 | 187 | 56 | 18 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 2.2% | 3.16 | 3.24 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael King (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.88 | 26.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.16 | 23.3% | 14.1% | 273 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.77 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .270 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.86 | 3.77 | 264 | 58 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 58 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.45 | 17.8% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 315 | 57 |
| Ervin Santana R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .273 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.12 | 3.75 | 720 | 57 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 57 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.51 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | +0.15 | 4.36 | 219 | 56 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2029 · 3.81 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.81 | 13.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | .281 | 5.01 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 59 | +1.20 | 3.81 | 162 | 56 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.46 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 145 | +0.30 | 4.16 | 325 | 56 |
| Ramon Ramirez R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.56 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .310 | 5.29 | 9.2% | -4.9% | 29 | +1.73 | 3.56 | 155 | 55 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.74 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .262 | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.63 | 3.74 | 240 | 55 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2028 · 3.00 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.00 | 19.1% | 6.2% | 1.3% | .333 | 4.11 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 184 | +1.11 | 3.00 | 407 | 55 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.13 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 248 | 54 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2028 · 3.64 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.64 | 12.2% | 6.5% | 1.4% | .313 | 4.15 | 11.8% | 3.5% | 216 | +0.51 | 3.41 | 394 | 54 |
| Scott McGregor R 2023 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 54 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.00 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.5% | .313 | 5.07 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | +0.07 | 4.87 | 294 | 54 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.86 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .328 | 4.86 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.00 | 4.54 | 269 | 54 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.14 | 12.5% | 8.5% | 1.9% | .351 | 4.35 | 11.7% | 4.0% | 89 | +0.21 | 4.14 | 275 | 54 |
| Yohan Pino R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.10 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.35 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.25 | 4.10 | 133 | 54 |
| Bruce Billings R 2024 · 3.11 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.11 | 15.6% | 5.6% | 1.1% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 121 | 54 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.07 | 15.7% | 12.9% | 1.2% | .310 | 3.58 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 30 | -0.49 | 3.58 | 139 | 54 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2020
Service 6.023 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
OPT
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $25M | +1.6 | $13M | -$12M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $25M | +1.3 | $11M | -$14M |
| 2028 | Ext / FA-deal | $25M | +1.1 | $9M | -$16M |
| Totals | $75M | $33M | -$42M | ||
| Options · projected decision | |||
| 2029 | PLAYER OPT | $28.0M / $5.0M buyout | EXERCISE |
| 2030 | PLAYER OPT | $30.0M / $5.0M buyout | EXERCISE |
| 2031 | MUTUAL OPT | $2026.0M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2032 | MUTUAL OPT | $15.0M / $3.8M buyout | DECLINE |
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$42M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$42M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.