Santiago Castellanos

Santiago Castellanos P FCL Twins

Age 18 RHP 5'10" / 150 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION2 act + 56 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117107vR 98

ERA4.29

FIP4.29

K%23.4%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%14.0%

ROS IP56

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5060

CTRL4045

K†5565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Twins	9	8	29	121	36	9	0	89%	3.2	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	0.0%	2.79	2.57	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Twins	9	8	29	121	36	9	0	89%	3.2	29.8%	7.4%	22.3%	0.0%	2.79	1.55	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	ROK	FCL Twins	2	2	2	9	1	6	0	100%	0.8	—	—	—	—	10.80	—	—
ROS	18	MLB	MIN	10	10	56	234	55	22	7	100%	5.5	23.4%	9.4%	14.0%	2.9%	4.29	4.29	+0.2
ROS	18	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.4%	9.4%	14.0%	2.9%	4.30	4.30	—
2026 TOT	18	MLB	MIN	—	—	57	243	56	28	7	—	—	23.0%	11.5%	11.4%	2.8%	4.48	4.16	+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	MIN	15	15	84	356	86	32	10	100%	5.6	24.1%	9.0%	15.0%	2.9%	4.21	4.16	+0.9
2028	20	MLB	MIN	22	22	118	500	122	43	14	100%	5.4	24.5%	8.6%	15.8%	2.8%	4.11	4.05	+1.9
2029	21	MLB	MIN	29	29	158	669	166	56	18	100%	5.5	24.8%	8.4%	16.4%	2.8%	4.02	3.96	+2.7
2030	22	MLB	MIN	32	32	175	739	190	59	20	100%	5.5	25.7%	8.0%	17.7%	2.7%	3.89	3.80	+3.3
2031	23	MLB	MIN	33	33	180	760	201	58	20	100%	5.5	26.4%	7.6%	18.8%	2.7%	3.76	3.67	+3.6
2032	24	MLB	MIN	32	32	180	760	205	56	20	100%	5.6	27.0%	7.4%	19.6%	2.6%	3.65	3.58	+3.8
2033	25	MLB	MIN	31	31	180	760	208	55	20	100%	5.8	27.4%	7.3%	20.1%	2.6%	3.57	3.52	+4.0
2034	26	MLB	MIN	30	30	180	760	210	55	20	100%	6.0	27.6%	7.3%	20.3%	2.6%	3.53	3.50	+4.0
2035	27	MLB	MIN	30	30	177	749	206	55	20	100%	5.9	27.6%	7.3%	20.2%	2.7%	3.54	3.54	+3.9
2036	28	MLB	MIN	29	29	172	726	199	54	20	100%	5.9	27.5%	7.5%	20.0%	2.8%	3.59	3.62	+3.6
2037	29	MLB	MIN	27	27	164	694	189	53	20	100%	6.1	27.2%	7.7%	19.5%	2.9%	3.69	3.75	+3.2
2038	30	MLB	MIN	26	26	154	652	175	52	20	100%	5.9	26.9%	8.0%	18.9%	3.1%	3.83	3.93	+2.7
2039	31	MLB	MIN	24	24	144	608	161	51	20	100%	6.0	26.5%	8.4%	18.1%	3.3%	4.01	4.13	+2.1
2027	19	MLB	MIN	7	7	41	173	42	16	5	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.0%	15.0%	2.9%	4.22	4.17	+0.2
2028	20	MLB	MIN	16	16	86	363	89	31	10	100%	5.4	24.5%	8.6%	15.8%	2.8%	4.12	4.06	+1.1
2029	21	MLB	MIN	24	24	134	566	140	47	16	100%	5.6	24.8%	8.4%	16.4%	2.8%	4.03	3.97	+2.2
2030	22	MLB	MIN	29	29	157	663	170	53	18	100%	5.4	25.7%	8.0%	17.7%	2.7%	3.90	3.81	+2.9
2031	23	MLB	MIN	30	30	167	705	186	54	19	100%	5.6	26.4%	7.6%	18.8%	2.7%	3.77	3.68	+3.4
2032	24	MLB	MIN	30	30	169	714	193	53	19	100%	5.6	27.0%	7.4%	19.6%	2.6%	3.66	3.59	+3.6
2033	25	MLB	MIN	29	29	171	722	198	53	19	100%	5.9	27.4%	7.3%	20.1%	2.6%	3.58	3.53	+3.7
2034	26	MLB	MIN	28	28	171	722	199	52	19	100%	6.1	27.6%	7.3%	20.3%	2.6%	3.54	3.51	+3.8
2035	27	MLB	MIN	28	28	168	709	196	52	19	100%	6.0	27.6%	7.3%	20.2%	2.7%	3.55	3.55	+3.6
2036	28	MLB	MIN	27	27	163	688	189	51	19	100%	6.0	27.5%	7.5%	20.0%	2.8%	3.60	3.63	+3.4
2037	29	MLB	MIN	26	26	156	659	179	51	19	100%	6.0	27.2%	7.7%	19.5%	2.9%	3.70	3.76	+3.0
2038	30	MLB	MIN	24	24	147	621	167	50	19	100%	6.1	26.9%	8.0%	18.9%	3.1%	3.84	3.94	+2.5
2039	31	MLB	MIN	23	23	137	578	153	48	19	100%	6.0	26.5%	8.4%	18.1%	3.3%	4.02	4.14	+2.0
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			334	334	1867	7883	2100	612	220	100%	5.6	26.6%	7.8%	18.9%	2.8%	3.76	3.37	+44.4
/ 200 IP	—			36	36	200	844	225	66	24	100%	5.6	26.6%	7.8%	18.9%	2.8%	3.76	3.37	+4.8
Career	—			11	10	31	130	25	17	0	91%	2.8	19.6%	13.3%	6.3%	0.0%	3.23	3.13	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—			72	65	200	848	166	112	0	91%	2.8	19.6%	13.3%	6.3%	0.0%	3.23	3.13	+5.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Santiago Castellanos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	23.4%	9.4%	2.9%	—	4.04	24.5%	15.9%	361	-0.25	—	—	—
Shawndrick Oduber R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	18	SP	4.21	22.0%	7.2%	3.8%	.337	5.35	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.14	4.21	104	84
Sheng-En Lin R 2027 · 3.58 FIP	19	SP-	3.58	22.3%	9.6%	2.1%	.223	4.19	17.8%	3.4%	61	+0.61	3.58	108	84
Marco Raya R 2027 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.47	20.0%	8.0%	254	-0.30	3.83	358	83
Luis Arejula R 2027 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	21.9%	8.7%	2.0%	.318	4.42	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.96	3.46	115	81
Matt Manning R 2026 · 3.10 FIP	18	SP	3.10	25.6%	7.2%	2.3%	.373	3.10	23.4%	13.1%	258	+0.00	2.71	714	79
Jonathan Stiever R 2029 · 4.39 FIP	21	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.308	4.32	20.7%	14.2%	219	-0.07	3.96	247	79
Juan Bello R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	18	SP	3.83	18.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	+0.10	3.83	187	79
Jose Montero R 2027 · 3.77 FIP	19	SP	3.77	20.8%	7.9%	2.6%	.377	3.97	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.20	3.77	342	78
Ramon Marquez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP	19	SP	3.98	21.1%	8.8%	2.8%	.331	3.00	30.4%	19.8%	49	-0.98	3.00	104	78
Gilberto Batista R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	18	SP-	3.97	22.8%	6.2%	3.7%	.323	5.20	15.0%	4.5%	187	+1.23	3.97	227	78
Carlos Naveda R 2026 · 3.77 FIP	18	SP	3.77	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.297	2.63	16.9%	11.7%	64	-1.14	2.63	120	76
Luis Valdez R 2026 · 3.51 FIP	18	SP	3.51	18.6%	6.7%	2.1%	.270	6.61	18.2%	5.5%	34	+3.10	3.51	102	76
Andry Rondon R 2027 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	76
Jordany Ventura R 2027 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	76
Jordy Vargas R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	18	SP	4.46	22.1%	10.0%	3.6%	.239	4.56	19.8%	6.3%	95	+0.10	3.02	257	76
Nelfy Ynfante R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	18	SP	4.33	18.1%	10.7%	2.5%	.309	4.72	16.4%	5.0%	202	+0.39	3.71	274	76
Moises Castillo R 2027 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.08	19.4%	5.0%	65	-0.50	3.77	101	76
Kyle Glogoski R 2027 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.43	206	76
Carson Fulmer R 2029 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	21.4%	11.5%	2.4%	.259	4.87	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.83	3.84	879	76
Jarlin Susana R 2026 · 3.30 FIP	18	SP	3.30	26.7%	13.9%	1.3%	.273	3.54	24.5%	9.8%	214	+0.24	2.75	249	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	152	26.5%	7.8%	1.08	3.78
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	9	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46