Santiago Castellanos

P FCL Twins

Age 19 RHP 5'10" / 150 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP45OGV rank#102ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKMIN	9	8	29	2.79	1.55	29.8%	7.4%	—	K 20.2% · BB 9.3% · FIP 2.57
2026	18	ROKMIN	2	2	2	10.80	12.70	11.1%	66.7%	—	K 11.1% · BB 66.7% · FIP 10.61
2027PROJ	19	MLBMIN	—	—	0	4.26	4.26	24.1%	9.4%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBMIN	7	7	38	4.20	4.15	24.6%	9.1%	0.6
2029PROJ73% MLB	21	MLBMIN	13	13	73	4.12	4.05	24.8%	8.7%	1.2

Next 3 projected WAR 1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 8.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 86%

CompsMarco Raya (age 19) · Jonathan Stiever (age 21) · Luis Arejula (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.26

FIP4.26

K%24.1%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%14.7%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	9	8	29	121	36	9	0	89%	3.2	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	0.0%	2.79	2.57	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	9	8	29	121	36	9	0	89%	3.2	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	0.0%	2.79	2.57	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	9	8	29	121	36	9	0	89%	3.2	29.8%	7.4%	22.3%	0.0%	2.79	1.55	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	2	2	2	9	1	6	0	100%	0.8	11.1%	66.7%	-55.6%	0.0%	10.80	10.61	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	2	2	2	9	1	6	0	100%	0.8	11.1%	66.7%	-55.6%	0.0%	10.80	10.61	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	2	2	2	9	1	6	0	100%	0.8	11.1%	66.7%	-55.6%	0.0%	10.80	12.70	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.1%	9.4%	14.7%	2.9%	4.26	4.26	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	77	323	79	29	9	100%	5.5	24.6%	9.1%	15.5%	2.9%	4.19	4.14	+1.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIN	18	18	100	420	104	36	12	100%	5.5	24.8%	8.7%	16.1%	2.8%	4.11	4.04	+1.6
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIN	23	23	127	537	138	44	15	100%	5.5	25.6%	8.2%	17.4%	2.8%	3.98	3.89	+2.3
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIN	24	24	130	550	145	43	15	100%	5.4	26.3%	7.9%	18.4%	2.8%	3.86	3.77	+2.5
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIN	24	24	132	556	149	43	15	100%	5.5	26.9%	7.7%	19.2%	2.7%	3.75	3.68	+2.7
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIN	22	22	130	550	150	41	15	100%	5.9	27.3%	7.5%	19.7%	2.7%	3.67	3.62	+2.8
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIN	22	22	131	553	152	41	15	100%	6.0	27.5%	7.5%	20.0%	2.7%	3.63	3.60	+2.8
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIN	21	21	128	541	149	41	15	100%	6.1	27.5%	7.6%	19.9%	2.8%	3.63	3.63	+2.7
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	123	518	142	40	15	100%	6.1	27.3%	7.7%	19.6%	2.9%	3.68	3.72	+2.5
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	115	484	131	38	15	100%	6.0	27.1%	8.0%	19.1%	3.0%	3.78	3.85	+2.1
2038	30	MLB MLE	MIN	17	17	104	440	118	36	14	100%	6.1	26.7%	8.2%	18.5%	3.2%	3.93	4.03	+1.7
2039	31	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	93	394	104	34	13	100%	5.8	26.3%	8.6%	17.7%	3.4%	4.11	4.23	+1.3
2040	32	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	82	347	90	31	13	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.0%	16.9%	3.7%	4.32	4.45	+0.9
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	38	160	39	15	5	100%	5.4	24.6%	9.1%	15.5%	2.9%	4.20	4.15	+0.6
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	73	308	77	27	9	100%	5.6	24.8%	8.7%	16.1%	2.9%	4.12	4.05	+1.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIN	19	19	107	452	116	37	13	100%	5.6	25.6%	8.2%	17.4%	2.8%	3.99	3.90	+1.9
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIN	21	21	117	494	130	39	14	100%	5.6	26.3%	7.9%	18.4%	2.8%	3.87	3.78	+2.3
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIN	22	22	121	511	137	39	14	100%	5.5	26.9%	7.7%	19.2%	2.7%	3.76	3.69	+2.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIN	21	21	122	515	140	39	14	100%	5.8	27.3%	7.5%	19.7%	2.7%	3.68	3.63	+2.6
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIN	21	21	124	524	144	39	14	100%	5.9	27.5%	7.5%	20.0%	2.7%	3.64	3.61	+2.7
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIN	20	20	122	515	141	39	14	100%	6.1	27.5%	7.6%	19.9%	2.8%	3.64	3.64	+2.6
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIN	20	20	117	494	135	38	14	100%	5.8	27.3%	7.7%	19.6%	2.9%	3.69	3.73	+2.3
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIN	18	18	109	460	125	37	14	100%	6.1	27.1%	8.0%	19.1%	3.0%	3.79	3.86	+2.0
2038	30	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	99	418	112	34	13	100%	6.2	26.7%	8.2%	18.5%	3.2%	3.94	4.04	+1.6
2039	31	MLB CTX	MIN	15	15	89	376	99	32	13	100%	5.9	26.3%	8.6%	17.7%	3.4%	4.12	4.24	+1.2
2040	32	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	78	329	85	30	12	100%	6.0	25.9%	9.0%	16.9%	3.7%	4.33	4.46	+0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		231	231	1315	5551	1479	444	163	100%	5.7	26.6%	8.0%	18.6%	2.9%	3.86	3.47	+31.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	225	68	25	100%	5.7	26.6%	8.0%	18.6%	2.9%	3.86	3.47	+4.7
Career	—	MLE		11	10	31	130	25	17	0	91%	2.8	19.6%	13.3%	6.3%	0.0%	3.23	3.13	+27.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	65	200	848	166	112	0	91%	2.8	19.6%	13.3%	6.3%	0.0%	3.23	3.13	+3.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKDSL Twins · 29 IPFIP 1.53 → 2.57 (+1.04)K% 29.8% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.75%	—	×0.680	20.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.44%	—	×1.250	9.30%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.953	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 1.53 → 2.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Santiago Castellanos (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.00	25.1%	16.5%	303	-0.26	—	—	—
Marco Raya R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.42	19.8%	8.6%	254	-0.35	3.99	383	82
Jonathan Stiever R 2018 · 4.39 FIP	21	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.308	4.25	20.7%	14.2%	219	-0.14	4.23	247	81
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	80
Payton Martin R 2023 · 3.06 FIP	19	SP	3.06	22.3%	11.1%	0.8%	.305	4.88	15.4%	4.6%	254	+1.82	3.06	294	80
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	79
Felix Arronde R 2022 · 4.74 FIP	19	SP	4.74	20.7%	9.9%	3.9%	.371	4.23	16.7%	7.3%	278	-0.51	4.16	442	78
Michael Grove R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP	4.39	24.3%	9.5%	3.9%	.409	5.45	21.8%	11.5%	176	+1.06	3.01	396	78
Reny Artiles R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	24.2%	12.4%	3.1%	.419	5.64	14.8%	-6.5%	109	+1.30	4.34	165	78
Jose Montero R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP	3.72	20.8%	7.9%	2.5%	.377	4.03	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.31	3.72	375	77
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	910	77
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	76
Clarke Schmidt R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	23.1%	8.5%	2.4%	.324	3.26	21.3%	13.1%	108	-0.27	2.77	537	76
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.86	20.8%	11.3%	236	-0.47	3.16	524	74
Andry Rondon R 2015 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	74
Yorman Gómez R 2022 · 3.36 FIP	19	SP	3.36	18.7%	6.2%	1.9%	.311	3.88	18.0%	6.7%	346	+0.52	3.18	494	74
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	74
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	74
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	74
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	74
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.6	109	26.5%	8.1%	1.13	3.88
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Jose DeLeon ('83-'95, 22 WAR*)	9.5	146	25.8%*	10.4%*	1.01*	4.17*
Woodie Fryman ('66-'83, 21 WAR*)	12.1	142	21.1%*	8.8%*	1.09*	4.43*
Jose Rijo ('84-'02, 33 WAR*)	9.4	145	25.9%*	8.4%*	0.93*	3.56*