Santiago Castellanos

Santiago Castellanos P FCL Twins

Age 18 RHP 5'10" / 150 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION2 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 98

ERA4.29

FIP4.29

K%23.4%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%13.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5060

CTRL4045

K†5565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	9	8	29	121	36	9	0	89%	3.2	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	0.0%	2.79	2.57	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	9	8	29	121	36	9	0	89%	3.2	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	0.0%	2.79	2.57	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	9	8	29	121	36	9	0	89%	3.2	29.8%	7.4%	22.3%	0.0%	2.79	1.55	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	2	2	2	9	1	6	0	100%	0.8	—	—	—	—	10.80	—	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	2	2	2	9	1	6	0	100%	0.8	—	—	—	—	10.80	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	MIN	2	2	2	9	1	6	0	100%	0.8	11.1%	66.7%	-55.6%	0.0%	10.80	10.61	—
ROS	18	MLB MLE	MIN	1	1	5	21	5	2	1	100%	5.0	23.4%	9.5%	13.9%	2.9%	4.29	4.29	+0.0
2026 TOT	18	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	7	30	6	8	1	—	—	19.8%	26.5%	-6.7%	2.0%	5.91	3.22	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	84	356	86	32	10	100%	5.6	24.1%	9.1%	15.0%	2.9%	4.21	4.16	+0.7
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIN	22	22	118	500	122	43	14	100%	5.4	24.5%	8.7%	15.8%	2.8%	4.12	4.05	+1.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIN	29	29	158	669	166	56	18	100%	5.5	24.8%	8.4%	16.4%	2.8%	4.03	3.96	+1.8
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIN	32	32	175	739	190	59	20	100%	5.5	25.7%	8.0%	17.7%	2.7%	3.90	3.81	+2.3
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIN	33	33	180	760	201	58	20	100%	5.5	26.4%	7.7%	18.7%	2.7%	3.77	3.68	+2.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIN	32	32	180	760	205	57	20	100%	5.6	27.0%	7.5%	19.5%	2.6%	3.66	3.58	+2.9
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIN	31	31	180	760	208	56	20	100%	5.8	27.4%	7.3%	20.0%	2.6%	3.58	3.53	+3.0
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIN	30	30	180	760	210	55	20	100%	6.0	27.6%	7.3%	20.3%	2.6%	3.53	3.50	+3.0
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIN	30	30	177	749	206	55	20	100%	5.9	27.6%	7.4%	20.2%	2.7%	3.54	3.54	+2.9
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIN	29	29	172	726	199	55	20	100%	5.9	27.5%	7.5%	19.9%	2.8%	3.59	3.63	+2.6
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIN	27	27	164	694	189	54	20	100%	6.1	27.2%	7.8%	19.5%	2.9%	3.69	3.76	+2.2
2038	30	MLB MLE	MIN	26	26	154	652	175	52	20	100%	5.9	26.9%	8.1%	18.8%	3.1%	3.84	3.94	+1.8
2039	31	MLB MLE	MIN	24	24	144	608	161	51	20	100%	6.0	26.5%	8.4%	18.1%	3.3%	4.02	4.14	+1.3
2027	19	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	41	173	42	16	5	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.1%	15.0%	2.9%	4.22	4.17	+0.4
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	86	363	89	32	10	100%	5.4	24.5%	8.7%	15.8%	2.8%	4.13	4.06	+0.9
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIN	24	24	134	566	140	48	16	100%	5.6	24.8%	8.4%	16.4%	2.8%	4.04	3.97	+1.5
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIN	29	29	157	663	170	53	18	100%	5.4	25.7%	8.0%	17.7%	2.7%	3.91	3.82	+2.0
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIN	30	30	167	705	186	54	19	100%	5.6	26.4%	7.7%	18.7%	2.7%	3.78	3.69	+2.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIN	30	30	169	714	193	53	19	100%	5.6	27.0%	7.5%	19.5%	2.6%	3.67	3.59	+2.7
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIN	29	29	171	722	198	53	19	100%	5.9	27.4%	7.3%	20.0%	2.6%	3.59	3.54	+2.8
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIN	28	28	171	722	199	53	19	100%	6.1	27.6%	7.3%	20.3%	2.6%	3.54	3.51	+2.9
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIN	28	28	168	709	196	52	19	100%	6.0	27.6%	7.4%	20.2%	2.7%	3.55	3.55	+2.7
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIN	27	27	163	688	189	52	19	100%	6.0	27.5%	7.5%	19.9%	2.8%	3.60	3.64	+2.5
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIN	26	26	156	659	179	51	19	100%	6.0	27.2%	7.8%	19.5%	2.9%	3.70	3.77	+2.1
2038	30	MLB CTX	MIN	24	24	147	621	167	50	19	100%	6.1	26.9%	8.1%	18.8%	3.1%	3.85	3.95	+1.7
2039	31	MLB CTX	MIN	23	23	137	578	153	49	19	100%	6.0	26.5%	8.4%	18.1%	3.3%	4.03	4.15	+1.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		334	334	1867	7883	2100	614	220	100%	5.6	26.6%	7.8%	18.9%	2.8%	3.76	3.37	+35.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	225	66	24	100%	5.6	26.6%	7.8%	18.9%	2.8%	3.76	3.37	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		11	10	31	130	25	17	0	91%	2.8	19.6%	13.3%	6.3%	0.0%	3.23	3.13	+28.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	65	200	848	166	112	0	91%	2.8	19.6%	13.3%	6.3%	0.0%	3.23	3.13	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Santiago Castellanos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	23.4%	9.5%	2.9%	—	4.04	24.5%	15.9%	361	-0.25	—	—	—
Shawndrick Oduber R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	18	SP	3.99	22.0%	7.2%	3.4%	.337	5.40	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.41	3.99	104	85
Marco Raya R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.44	19.5%	8.3%	254	-0.33	3.99	380	83
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	81
Matt Manning R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	18	SP	3.10	25.6%	7.2%	2.3%	.373	3.19	23.4%	13.1%	258	+0.09	2.83	714	79
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	79
Jonathan Stiever R 2018 · 4.39 FIP	21	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.308	4.25	20.7%	14.2%	219	-0.14	4.23	247	79
Jose Montero R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP	3.72	20.8%	7.9%	2.5%	.377	4.03	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.31	3.72	375	78
Gilberto Batista R 2023 · 3.63 FIP	18	SP-	3.63	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.323	5.53	15.1%	5.0%	210	+1.90	3.63	250	78
Carlos Naveda R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	18	SP	3.77	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.297	2.63	16.9%	11.7%	64	-1.14	2.63	120	76
Jordy Vargas R 2022 · 4.35 FIP	18	SP	4.35	22.1%	10.0%	3.4%	.239	4.64	19.8%	6.3%	95	+0.29	3.02	290	76
Andry Rondon R 2015 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	76
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	76
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	899	76
Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.32	206	76
Nelfy Ynfante R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	18	SP	4.22	18.1%	10.7%	2.4%	.309	4.71	16.8%	5.5%	225	+0.49	3.70	297	76
Luis Valdez R 2023 · 3.39 FIP	18	SP	3.39	18.6%	6.7%	1.8%	.270	6.44	17.8%	5.1%	36	+3.05	3.39	103	75
Dahian Santos R 2021 · 4.91 FIP	18	SP-	4.91	24.2%	10.1%	4.7%	.316	4.72	25.1%	10.2%	161	-0.19	4.57	197	75
Javier Bartolozzi R 2023 · 3.39 FIP	18	SP	3.39	16.9%	8.1%	1.2%	.325	4.56	13.8%	5.4%	125	+1.17	3.39	164	75
Jarlin Susana R 2022 · 3.23 FIP	18	SP	3.23	26.7%	13.9%	1.1%	.273	3.51	24.5%	9.8%	214	+0.28	2.68	260	75
Adrian Navas R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	19	SP	3.67	18.5%	11.9%	1.2%	.272	5.27	16.8%	7.1%	145	+1.60	3.67	204	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.6	152	26.5%	7.9%	1.08	3.79
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45