Luis Arejula
P
Hudson Valley Renegades
+0.3
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.1%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%12.1%
IP55
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Yankees 2 | 12 | 10 | 44 | 186 | 60 | 13 | 3 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | 4.30 | 3.49 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 8 | 2 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 15.1% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 3.24 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 14 | 0 | 16 | 78 | 17 | 10 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.96 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 33 | 0 | 55 | 235 | 49 | 28 | 3 | 15.9% | 13.8% | 1.6% | 2.96 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 51 | 23 | 7 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 55 | — | 55 | 234 | 53 | 22 | 7 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 55 | — | 55 | 234 | 54 | 22 | 7 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 53 | 22 | 7 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 52 | 22 | 7 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 51 | 22 | 7 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 47 | 21 | 7 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 46 | — | 46 | 192 | 42 | 20 | 6 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 39 | 19 | 6 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 36 | 18 | 6 | 21.0% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 33 | 17 | 6 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 5.02 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 67 | 12 | 132 | 571 | 106 | 64 | 10 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 1.8% | 3.69 | 3.91 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 102 | 18 | 200 | 867 | 161 | 97 | 15 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 1.8% | 3.69 | 3.91 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Arejula (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.35 | 22.8% | 13.3% | 166 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 93 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 93 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 93 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 93 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .353 | 4.76 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.72 | 4.04 | 106 | 92 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.78 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .294 | 3.31 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 2.87 | 223 | 91 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 91 |
| Randall Delgado R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 91 |
| Cole Ayers R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.90 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .298 | 5.05 | 15.2% | -0.4% | 32 | +1.15 | 3.60 | 171 | 89 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.65 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 1.8% | .282 | 4.58 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +0.93 | 2.57 | 304 | 89 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.49 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .262 | 6.13 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.64 | 3.49 | 207 | 89 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.95 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 174 | 89 |
| Bryan Pope R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.96 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .332 | 5.16 | 12.7% | -0.3% | 22 | +1.20 | 3.96 | 148 | 89 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.51 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .293 | 7.98 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.47 | 4.42 | 155 | 88 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 88 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 88 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 88 |
| Breckin Williams R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.63 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .282 | 2.78 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.85 | 2.77 | 107 | 88 |
| Trey McLoughlin R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.79 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.94 | 22.8% | 8.7% | 55 | +0.15 | 3.78 | 178 | 88 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.73 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 104 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Arb-1 | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Arb-2 | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.3M |
| 2035 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $7M | +$3M | ||