Luis Arejula
P
Hudson Valley Renegades
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
K%22.1%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Yankees 2 | 12 | 10 | 44 | 186 | 60 | 13 | 3 | 83% | 3.7 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 2.0% | 4.30 | 3.46 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Yankees 2 | 12 | 10 | 44 | 186 | 60 | 13 | 3 | 83% | 3.7 | 32.3% | 7.0% | 25.3% | 1.6% | 4.30 | 2.15 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 8 | 2 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 25% | 2.1 | 15.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 3.24 | 4.59 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 8 | 2 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 25% | 2.1 | 22.2% | 5.6% | 16.7% | 2.8% | 3.24 | 3.46 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 16 | 78 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.8% | 12.8% | 9.0% | 0.0% | 4.96 | 2.88 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 16 | 78 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.8% | 12.8% | 9.0% | 0.0% | 4.96 | 2.86 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 55 | 235 | 49 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 15.9% | 13.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.96 | 4.37 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 55 | 235 | 49 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 1.3% | 2.96 | 3.56 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 36 | 0 | 38 | 162 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 37 | 0 | 39 | 164 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 0 | 17 | 70 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 3.98 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 84 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 67 | 12 | 132 | 571 | 106 | 64 | 10 | 18% | 2.0 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 3.69 | 3.90 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 102 | 18 | 200 | 867 | 161 | 97 | 15 | 18% | 2.0 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 3.69 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Arejula (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.36 | 22.6% | 13.0% | 39 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 88 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 88 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 85 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 85 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 84 |
| Carlo Reyes R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .318 | 3.98 | 24.1% | 12.9% | 61 | -0.28 | 2.79 | 229 | 84 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 84 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 83 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 83 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 83 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 278 | 83 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 82 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 82 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 82 |
| Joshua Loeschorn R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .272 | 4.60 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 67 | +0.86 | 3.04 | 135 | 82 |
| Cole Ayers R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .298 | 5.00 | 15.2% | -0.4% | 32 | +1.14 | 3.52 | 171 | 82 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.95 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +1.22 | 2.65 | 304 | 82 |
| Josh Advocate R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | +0.01 | 3.58 | 118 | 82 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 82 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.08 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 100 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 39 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 1.11 | 4.43 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |