Luis Arejula — OGILVIE

Luis Arejula P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%19.4%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 2	12	10	44	186	60	13	3	83%	3.7	21.9%	8.7%	13.2%	2.1%	4.30	3.52	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees 2	12	10	44	186	60	13	3	83%	3.7	32.3%	7.0%	25.3%	1.6%	4.30	2.15	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	8	2	17	72	16	4	2	25%	2.1	15.1%	6.9%	8.2%	3.6%	3.24	4.71	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	8	2	17	72	16	4	2	25%	2.1	22.2%	5.6%	16.7%	2.8%	3.24	3.46	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	16	78	17	10	0	0%	1.2	21.8%	12.8%	9.0%	0.0%	4.96	2.88	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	16	78	17	10	0	0%	1.2	21.8%	12.8%	9.0%	0.0%	4.96	2.88	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	16	78	17	10	0	0%	1.2	21.8%	12.8%	9.0%	0.0%	4.96	2.86	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	55	235	49	28	3	0%	1.7	15.9%	13.8%	2.1%	1.6%	2.96	4.38	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	55	235	49	28	3	0%	1.7	15.9%	13.8%	2.1%	1.6%	2.96	4.38	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	55	235	49	28	3	0%	1.7	20.9%	11.9%	8.9%	1.3%	2.96	3.56	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	NYY	3	0	3	13	2	2	0	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.5%	6.9%	2.9%	5.00	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYY	47	0	50	210	43	24	6	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.4%	9.0%	2.9%	4.84	4.78	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	47	0	50	210	44	23	6	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.2%	9.7%	2.9%	4.75	4.71	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYY	20	0	21	89	18	10	3	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.4%	9.0%	2.9%	4.84	4.78	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	31	0	33	139	29	16	4	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.2%	9.7%	2.9%	4.75	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	0	55	230	48	26	7	0%	1.0	20.7%	11.2%	9.4%	2.9%	4.79	4.36	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	95	26	0%	1.1	20.7%	11.2%	9.4%	2.9%	4.79	4.36	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		67	12	132	571	106	64	10	18%	2.0	18.6%	11.1%	7.4%	1.8%	3.69	3.94	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	18	200	867	161	97	16	18%	2.0	18.6%	11.1%	7.4%	1.8%	3.69	3.94	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Arejula (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	19.4%	12.5%	2.9%	—	4.75	20.6%	9.4%	100	-0.25	—	—	—
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	87
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	86
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	85
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	85
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	85
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	85
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	84
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	83
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	83
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	83
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	83
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	83
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	83
Armando Ruiz R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	24	SU	4.26	18.4%	11.4%	2.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	113	83
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	82
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	82
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	82
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	20.3%	11.6%	1.11	4.85
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64