Luis Arejula

P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	20	ROKNYY	8	2	17	3.24	3.46	22.2%	5.6%	—	K 15.1% · BB 6.9% · FIP 4.71
2023	21	MIX2 levels	14	0	16	4.96	2.86	21.8%	12.8%	—	K 21.8% · BB 12.8% · FIP 2.88
2024	22	MIX2 levels	33	0	55	2.96	3.56	20.9%	11.9%	—	K 15.9% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.38
2025	23	No MLB games played
2026	24	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYY	—	—	0	4.74	4.74	21.2%	11.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBNYY	12	0	13	4.68	4.67	21.7%	11.0%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsBarrett Loseke (age 25) · Jarret Whorff (age 25) · Brad Deppermann (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%21.2%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 2	12	10	44	186	60	13	3	83%	3.7	21.9%	8.7%	13.2%	2.1%	4.30	3.52	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees 2	12	10	44	186	60	13	3	83%	3.7	32.3%	7.0%	25.3%	1.6%	4.30	2.15	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	8	2	17	72	16	4	2	25%	2.1	15.1%	6.9%	8.2%	3.6%	3.24	4.71	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	8	2	17	72	16	4	2	25%	2.1	22.2%	5.6%	16.7%	2.8%	3.24	3.46	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	16	78	17	10	0	0%	1.2	21.8%	12.8%	9.0%	0.0%	4.96	2.88	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	16	78	17	10	0	0%	1.2	21.8%	12.8%	9.0%	0.0%	4.96	2.86	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	55	235	49	28	3	0%	1.7	15.9%	13.8%	2.1%	1.6%	2.96	4.38	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	55	235	49	28	3	0%	1.7	15.9%	13.8%	2.1%	1.6%	2.96	4.38	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	55	235	49	28	3	0%	1.7	20.9%	11.9%	8.9%	1.3%	2.96	3.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.2%	11.3%	10.0%	3.0%	4.74	4.74	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	29	0	30	129	28	14	4	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.0%	10.6%	3.0%	4.68	4.67	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	12	0	13	55	12	6	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.0%	10.6%	3.0%	4.68	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	55	12	6	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.0%	10.6%	3.0%	4.68	4.29	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	91	30	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.0%	10.6%	3.0%	4.68	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		67	12	132	571	106	64	10	18%	2.0	18.6%	11.1%	7.4%	1.8%	3.69	3.94	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	18	200	867	161	97	16	18%	2.0	18.6%	11.1%	7.4%	1.8%	3.69	3.94	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 40 IPFIP 3.42 → 4.21 (+0.80)K% 22.1% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.09%	—	×0.770	17.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.21%	—	×1.150	14.04%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷1.032	×1.250	1.41%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 3.42 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ATampa Tarpons · 14 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.83 (+0.92)K% 17.5% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.46%	—	×0.740	12.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.180	13.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.59%	÷0.979	×1.300	2.11%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ATampa Tarpons · 10 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.81 (+0.71)K% 19.1% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.15%	—	×0.740	14.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.77%	—	×1.180	15.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.086	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Yankees · 6 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.66 (+1.11)K% 25.8% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.81%	—	×0.680	17.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.90%	—	×1.250	16.13%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.383	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 177).

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Yankees · 17 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.71 (+1.25)K% 22.2% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.680	15.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.250	6.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.066	×1.400	3.65%

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Yankees 2 · 44 IPFIP 2.15 → 3.52 (+1.37)K% 32.3% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.26%	—	×0.680	21.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.99%	—	×1.250	8.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.063	×1.400	2.12%

Result: FIP 2.15 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Arejula (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	21.2%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.67	21.7%	10.6%	30	-0.07	—	—	—
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	86
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	85
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	84
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	84
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	84
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	84
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	83
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	83
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	83
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	83
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	83
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	83
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	82
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	82
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	82
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	82
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	81
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	81
Brandon Beckel R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	19.4%	10.3%	1.8%	.250	4.23	19.5%	10.5%	147	+0.48	3.75	194	81
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	21.4%	11.2%	1.15	4.71
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*