William Kempner

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 222 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAARPIL-6040-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	MIX3 levels	38	5	63	3.73	3.08	28.1%	10.8%	—	K 21.5% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.02
2025	24	MIX3 levels	48	0	68	2.26	2.45	33.6%	14.1%	—	K 27.1% · BB 14.7% · FIP 3.14
2026	25	MIX2 levels	33	0	44	3.68	2.92	35.3%	12.8%	0.9	K 31.4% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.22
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIA	23	0	24	4.25	4.18	29.6%	13.9%	0.1
2028PROJ76% MLB	27	MLBMIA	37	0	39	4.24	4.23	29.0%	13.5%	0.1
2029PROJ81% MLB	28	MLBMIA	36	0	38	4.29	4.32	28.5%	13.4%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%81

FB Velo64

xwOBA vs56

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 86%

CompsPeyton Gray (age 26) · Eric Reyzelman (age 23) · Zach Franklin (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 96

ERA4.25

FIP4.18

K%29.6%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%15.7%

Proj IP35

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p9034.1%

p8128.0%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	2	9	43	11	6	1	40%	1.8	25.6%	14.0%	11.6%	2.3%	5.00	3.98	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	2	9	43	11	6	1	40%	1.8	25.6%	14.0%	11.6%	2.3%	5.00	4.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	5	63	278	78	30	5	13%	1.6	21.5%	12.2%	9.3%	2.2%	3.73	4.02	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	5	63	278	78	30	5	13%	1.6	28.1%	10.8%	17.3%	1.8%	3.73	3.08	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	68	283	95	40	2	0%	1.4	27.1%	14.7%	12.4%	0.9%	2.26	3.14	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	68	283	95	40	2	0%	1.4	27.1%	14.7%	12.4%	0.9%	2.26	3.14	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	68	283	95	40	2	0%	1.4	33.6%	14.1%	19.4%	0.7%	2.26	2.45	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	44	187	66	24	4	0%	1.3	31.4%	11.8%	19.6%	2.3%	3.68	3.22	+0.7
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	44	187	66	24	4	0%	1.3	31.4%	11.8%	19.6%	2.3%	3.68	3.22	+0.7
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	44	187	66	24	4	0%	1.3	35.3%	12.8%	22.5%	2.1%	3.68	2.92	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	0	12	50	14	4	1	0%	1.4	28.0%	8.0%	20.0%	2.0%	2.92	2.86	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIA	23	0	24	101	30	14	3	0%	1.0	29.6%	13.9%	15.7%	2.6%	4.25	4.18	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIA	49	0	52	219	64	30	6	0%	1.1	29.0%	13.5%	15.5%	2.7%	4.24	4.23	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIA	44	0	47	197	56	26	6	0%	1.1	28.5%	13.4%	15.1%	2.8%	4.29	4.32	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIA	37	0	39	165	48	22	4	0%	1.1	29.0%	13.5%	15.5%	2.7%	4.24	4.23	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIA	36	0	38	160	46	21	5	0%	1.1	28.5%	13.4%	15.1%	2.8%	4.29	4.32	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		83	0	90	376	108	48	10	0%	1.1	28.6%	12.7%	15.9%	2.7%	4.08	3.76	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	0	200	840	241	107	22	0%	1.1	28.6%	12.7%	15.9%	2.7%	4.08	3.76	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		124	7	183	791	206	103	14	6%	1.5	26.1%	13.1%	13.0%	1.7%	3.24	3.51	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		135	8	200	863	225	113	15	6%	1.5	26.1%	13.1%	13.0%	1.7%	3.24	3.51	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 32 IPFIP 2.95 → 3.33 (+0.38)K% 38.0% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.96%	—	×0.860	32.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.60%	—	×0.900	13.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.41%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.95 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 27 IPFIP 1.27 → 2.13 (+0.85)K% 35.1% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.14%	—	×0.770	27.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.01%	—	×1.150	10.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.006	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 1.27 → 2.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 24 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.07 (+0.72)K% 32.3% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.29%	—	×0.810	26.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.62%	—	×1.100	17.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.103	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 17 IPFIP 4.27 → 4.72 (+0.45)K% 32.9% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.89%	—	×0.860	28.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.74%	—	×0.900	17.76%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.903	×1.100	3.21%

Result: FIP 4.27 → 4.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Eugene Emeralds · 34 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.51 (+1.11)K% 32.6% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.64%	—	×0.770	25.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.03%	—	×1.150	10.38%
HR / BF /BF	3.47%	÷1.076	×1.250	4.03%

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASan Jose Giants · 27 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.45 (+0.79)K% 23.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.39%	—	×0.740	17.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.10%	—	×1.180	14.27%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.890	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASan Jose Giants · 6 IPFIP 5.06 → 6.29 (+1.23)K% 21.4% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.43%	—	×0.740	15.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.180	16.86%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.063	×1.300	4.37%

Result: FIP 5.06 → 6.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
William Kempner (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.27	28.7%	15.3%	99	+0.09	—	—	—
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	84
Eric Reyzelman R 2024 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	30.3%	15.6%	2.4%	.261	4.78	24.5%	8.6%	94	+0.97	3.81	117	82
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	81
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	81
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.36	21.4%	10.8%	92	+0.05	3.89	168	81
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	80
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	79
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	79
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.09	246	79
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	78
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	77
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	77
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	77
Josh Roenicke R 2009 · 3.25 FIP	26	SU	3.25	23.9%	10.9%	1.5%	.341	4.17	15.4%	4.7%	124	+0.92	3.25	500	77
Collin Baumgartner R 2024 · 2.99 FIP	25	SU	2.99	26.1%	11.5%	1.2%	.280	4.13	22.6%	8.4%	77	+1.14	2.99	134	77
Logan Boyer R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	26	SU	3.71	25.0%	12.3%	2.1%	.267	4.65	17.5%	3.5%	54	+0.94	3.71	121	77
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	76
Lucas Wepf R 2024 · 3.80 FIP	24	SU	3.80	27.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.304	4.09	25.4%	11.8%	80	+0.29	2.90	195	76
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	76
Pierce Johnson R 2017 · 3.09 FIP	26	SU	3.09	27.8%	11.7%	1.6%	.374	3.71	25.0%	13.7%	86	+0.62	2.75	598	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	50	28.9%	13.1%	1.03	4.15
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
Chad Fox ('09)	1.1	57	25.8%	13.2%	0.87	3.79
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*