William Kempner — OGILVIE

William Kempner P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 222 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.11

FIP4.11

K%25.7%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—35

CTRL—35

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p9034.1%

p8128.0%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	2	9	43	11	6	1	40%	1.8	25.6%	14.0%	11.6%	2.3%	5.00	3.98	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	2	9	43	11	6	1	40%	1.8	25.6%	14.0%	11.6%	2.3%	5.00	4.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	5	63	278	78	30	5	13%	1.6	21.5%	12.2%	9.3%	2.2%	3.73	4.02	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	5	63	278	78	30	5	13%	1.6	21.5%	12.2%	9.3%	2.2%	3.73	4.02	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	5	63	278	78	30	5	13%	1.6	28.1%	10.8%	17.3%	1.8%	3.73	3.08	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	68	283	95	40	2	0%	1.4	26.8%	14.7%	12.2%	0.9%	2.26	3.17	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	68	283	95	40	2	0%	1.4	26.8%	14.7%	12.2%	0.9%	2.26	3.17	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	68	283	95	40	2	0%	1.4	33.6%	14.1%	19.4%	0.7%	2.26	2.45	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	0	12	50	14	4	1	0%	1.4	28.0%	8.0%	20.0%	2.0%	2.92	2.86	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	33	0	44	187	66	24	4	0%	1.3	30.6%	11.8%	18.8%	2.3%	3.68	3.29	—
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	33	0	44	187	66	24	4	0%	1.3	30.6%	11.8%	18.8%	2.3%	3.68	3.29	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	MIA	24	0	32	137	52	20	3	0%	1.3	38.0%	14.6%	23.4%	2.2%	3.98	2.95	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	MIA	9	0	12	50	14	4	1	0%	1.4	28.0%	8.0%	20.0%	2.0%	2.92	2.85	+0.3
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	MIA	9	0	12	50	14	4	1	0%	1.4	28.0%	8.0%	20.0%	2.0%	2.92	2.85	+0.3
ROS	25	MLB MLE	MIA	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.1	25.7%	14.1%	11.6%	2.5%	4.11	4.11	+0.0
ROS	25	MLB CTX	MIA	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	25.7%	14.1%	11.6%	2.5%	4.11	4.11	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	45	192	67	25	4	—	—	35.1%	12.9%	22.2%	2.1%	3.69	3.31	+0.7
FULL	25	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	13	57	67	25	4	—	—	118.3%	43.4%	74.9%	7.3%	12.38	2.59	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIA	67	0	70	296	74	39	8	0%	1.0	24.9%	13.1%	11.8%	2.5%	4.44	4.43	+0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIA	66	0	69	291	72	38	8	0%	1.0	24.8%	12.9%	11.9%	2.6%	4.45	4.46	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIA	64	0	67	282	70	36	8	0%	1.0	24.6%	12.9%	11.8%	2.7%	4.50	4.54	+0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIA	61	0	64	270	66	35	8	0%	1.0	24.3%	13.0%	11.4%	2.9%	4.60	4.66	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIA	63	0	66	279	69	37	7	0%	1.0	24.9%	13.1%	11.8%	2.5%	4.44	4.43	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIA	63	0	66	279	69	36	7	0%	1.0	24.8%	12.9%	11.9%	2.6%	4.45	4.46	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIA	61	0	64	270	67	35	7	0%	1.0	24.6%	12.9%	11.8%	2.7%	4.50	4.54	+0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIA	58	0	61	258	63	33	7	0%	1.1	24.3%	13.0%	11.4%	2.9%	4.60	4.66	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		254	0	270	1137	282	145	30	0%	1.1	24.8%	12.8%	12.1%	2.7%	4.42	4.08	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	843	209	108	22	0%	1.1	24.8%	12.8%	12.1%	2.7%	4.42	4.08	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		124	7	183	791	204	103	14	6%	1.5	25.8%	13.1%	12.7%	1.7%	3.24	3.54	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		135	8	200	863	222	113	15	6%	1.5	25.8%	13.1%	12.7%	1.7%	3.24	3.54	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
William Kempner (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	24.4%	14.4%	2.5%	—	4.48	24.8%	11.8%	206	-0.16	—	—	—
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	88
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	458	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	87
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	87
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	87
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	87
Mason Vinyard R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.67	19.3%	5.9%	147	+0.94	3.60	207	87
Eduard Santos R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	25	SU	3.51	28.1%	15.2%	1.6%	.265	3.49	24.0%	10.0%	79	-0.02	2.04	138	86
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	86
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	85
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	85
Pat Light R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	25	SU	4.10	21.1%	13.1%	2.1%	.276	4.63	11.8%	-2.3%	55	+0.53	4.10	172	85
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.15	246	85
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	85
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	84
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	84
Justin Evans R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	25	SU	3.63	23.6%	14.3%	1.3%	.323	4.80	16.4%	-7.9%	14	+1.17	3.63	105	84
Maikel Cleto R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	25.8%	12.1%	2.4%	.214	3.13	25.0%	15.3%	55	-0.66	2.59	156	84
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	24.6%	13.2%	1.03	4.52
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64