Lucas Wepf
P
Tulsa Drillers
+0.3
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'5" / 192 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.25
FIP4.25
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.4%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%13.5%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 41 | 0 | 58 | 239 | 88 | 22 | 5 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 3.39 | 3.65 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 43 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 82 | 23 | 6 | 27.4% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 3.67 | 3.80 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 23 | 0 | 29 | 118 | 36 | 16 | 0 | 24.7% | 14.9% | 0.0% | 2.79 | 2.90 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 4 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.93 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAD | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 39 | 162 | 43 | 18 | 4 | 26.6% | 10.9% | 2.4% | 3.97 | 3.74 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 35 | 15 | 4 | 24.3% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 24.2% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 33 | 15 | 4 | 24.0% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.34 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 23.8% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 30 | — | 30 | 129 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 23.6% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 23.3% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 111 | 0 | 148 | 611 | 168 | 71 | 14 | 27.5% | 11.6% | 2.2% | 3.34 | 3.48 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 150 | 0 | 200 | 824 | 227 | 96 | 19 | 27.5% | 11.6% | 2.2% | 3.34 | 3.48 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Wepf (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.6% | — | 4.30 | 24.2% | 13.5% | 100 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 93 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 89 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 89 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 89 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 4.62 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 58 | +0.30 | 3.86 | 134 | 89 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.10 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .289 | 4.77 | 28.3% | 17.6% | 151 | +1.67 | 3.10 | 220 | 89 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 89 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 87 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 86 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 85 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.48 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .245 | 4.81 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.33 | 3.04 | 230 | 85 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 85 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 83 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.30 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | -0.02 | 3.45 | 161 | 83 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.36 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .291 | 2.98 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.38 | 2.67 | 178 | 83 |
| Blake Smith R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 83 |
| Peyton Gray R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 83 |
| Logan Boyer R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .267 | 4.91 | 17.9% | 1.6% | 54 | +1.21 | 3.70 | 121 | 82 |
| Reid Schaller R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.63 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 2.3% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 186 | 82 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .214 | 3.12 | 25.0% | 15.3% | 55 | -0.77 | 2.59 | 156 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.