Lucas Wepf
P
Tulsa Drillers
Age 26
RHP
6'5" / 192 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 24 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 97
ERA4.25
FIP4.25
K%24.4%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%13.5%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 58 | 239 | 88 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 16.9% | 2.8% | 3.39 | 3.68 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 58 | 239 | 88 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 36.8% | 9.2% | 27.6% | 2.1% | 3.39 | 2.33 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 82 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.4% | 10.9% | 16.5% | 2.8% | 3.67 | 3.72 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 82 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 34.7% | 9.7% | 25.0% | 2.5% | 3.67 | 2.80 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 23 | 0 | 29 | 118 | 36 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.7% | 14.9% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 2.79 | 2.90 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 23 | 0 | 29 | 118 | 36 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.5% | 13.6% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 2.79 | 2.27 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 24 | 0 | 33 | 129 | 42 | 10 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 17.8% | 5.6% | 3.58 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAD | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.4% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.25 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 57 | 230 | 67 | 21 | 9 | — | — | 29.0% | 9.1% | 19.8% | 3.8% | 3.86 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 24.4% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 3.87 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 0 | 24 | 99 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 3.91 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 215 | 86 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 131 | 0 | 176 | 722 | 194 | 80 | 21 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.9% | 11.1% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 3.42 | 3.81 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 149 | 0 | 200 | 819 | 220 | 91 | 23 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.9% | 11.1% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 3.42 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Wepf (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.6% | — | 4.29 | 24.3% | 13.5% | 24 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 91 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 90 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.15 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.73 | 28.3% | 17.6% | 151 | +1.58 | 3.15 | 220 | 88 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 88 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 88 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.07 | 2.96 | 114 | 85 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.57 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .299 | 4.42 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 87 | -0.15 | 3.74 | 163 | 85 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 85 |
| Blake Smith R 2027 · 3.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.08 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.66 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.58 | 3.08 | 124 | 85 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .291 | 6.27 | 19.1% | -8.3% | 16 | +2.65 | 3.05 | 134 | 85 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 85 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 85 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.52 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .245 | 5.01 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 84 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .282 | 3.23 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -0.88 | 1.79 | 647 | 84 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .214 | 3.04 | 25.0% | 15.3% | 55 | -0.50 | 2.59 | 156 | 84 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 84 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 83 |
| Jeff Johnson R 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.12 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 1.2% | .284 | 3.59 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 55 | +0.47 | 2.49 | 160 | 83 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 82 |
| Logan Boyer R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.65 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .267 | 4.98 | 17.9% | 1.6% | 54 | +1.33 | 3.65 | 121 | 82 |