Lucas Wepf — OGILVIE

Lucas Wepf P Tulsa Drillers

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 192 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.33

FIP4.33

K%25.3%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%13.2%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	58	239	88	22	5	0%	1.4	27.6%	10.7%	16.9%	2.7%	3.39	3.62	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	58	239	88	22	5	0%	1.4	27.6%	10.7%	16.9%	2.7%	3.39	3.62	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	58	239	88	22	5	0%	1.4	36.8%	9.2%	27.6%	2.1%	3.39	2.33	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	56	236	82	23	6	0%	1.3	27.4%	10.9%	16.5%	3.0%	3.67	3.80	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	56	236	82	23	6	0%	1.3	27.4%	10.9%	16.5%	3.0%	3.67	3.80	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	56	236	82	23	6	0%	1.3	34.7%	9.7%	25.0%	2.5%	3.67	2.80	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	23	0	29	118	36	16	0	0%	1.3	24.7%	14.9%	9.8%	0.0%	2.79	2.90	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	23	0	29	118	36	16	0	0%	1.3	24.7%	14.9%	9.8%	0.0%	2.79	2.90	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	23	0	29	118	36	16	0	0%	1.3	30.5%	13.6%	16.9%	0.0%	2.79	2.27	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	41	0	51	207	66	24	7	0%	1.2	25.8%	12.8%	13.1%	4.1%	2.82	4.76	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	41	0	51	207	66	24	7	0%	1.2	25.8%	12.8%	13.1%	4.1%	2.82	4.76	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	LAD	41	0	51	207	66	24	7	0%	1.2	31.9%	11.6%	20.3%	3.4%	2.82	3.73	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	LAD	48	0	50	211	53	25	6	0%	1.0	25.1%	11.9%	13.2%	2.7%	4.35	4.36	+0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAD	46	0	48	204	51	24	6	0%	1.1	24.9%	11.8%	13.0%	2.9%	4.41	4.44	+0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	LAD	18	0	19	80	20	10	2	0%	1.1	25.1%	11.9%	13.2%	2.7%	4.35	4.36	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAD	28	0	29	122	30	14	3	0%	1.0	24.9%	11.8%	13.0%	2.9%	4.41	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	0	48	201	50	24	6	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.8%	13.1%	2.8%	4.39	4.03	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	210	101	25	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.8%	13.1%	2.8%	4.39	4.03	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		148	0	195	800	213	95	22	0%	1.3	26.7%	11.9%	14.8%	2.7%	3.24	3.86	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	0	200	822	219	98	23	0%	1.3	26.7%	11.9%	14.8%	2.7%	3.24	3.86	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Wepf (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	25.3%	12.1%	2.6%	—	4.40	25.0%	13.1%	98	+0.07	—	—	—
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	90
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	90
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	89
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	88
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	88
Neil Ramírez R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	26	SU	3.21	25.0%	10.0%	1.7%	.289	4.75	28.3%	17.6%	151	+1.54	3.21	220	87
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.58	19.9%	3.7%	131	+0.74	3.70	201	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.15	246	85
Maikel Cleto R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	25.8%	12.1%	2.4%	.214	3.13	25.0%	15.3%	55	-0.66	2.59	156	85
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	85
Dustin Antolin R 2016 · 3.43 FIP	26	SU	3.43	23.9%	13.1%	1.3%	.286	4.35	16.2%	1.8%	50	+0.92	2.95	159	84
Blake Smith R 2015 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.59	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.42	3.17	124	84
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	84
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	84
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	84
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	83
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	83
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	41	25.1%	11.9%	1.07	4.37
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68