Lucas Wepf

P Tulsa Drillers

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 192 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	43	56	3.67	2.80	34.7%	9.7%	—	K 27.4% · BB 10.9% · FIP 3.80
2025	25	AALAD	23	29	2.79	2.27	30.5%	13.6%	—	K 24.7% · BB 14.9% · FIP 2.90
2026	26	AALAD	41	51	2.82	3.71	31.9%	11.6%	—	K 25.8% · BB 12.8% · FIP 4.76
2027PROJ	27	MLBLAD	1	1	4.58	4.58	25.4%	12.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBLAD	10	10	4.60	4.64	25.0%	12.3%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsFernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 27) · Jason Bulger (age 29) · Chaz Roe (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%25.4%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%12.9%

Proj IP32

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	58	239	88	22	5	0%	1.4	27.6%	10.7%	16.9%	2.7%	3.39	3.62	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	58	239	88	22	5	0%	1.4	36.8%	9.2%	27.6%	2.1%	3.39	2.33	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	56	236	82	23	6	0%	1.3	27.4%	10.9%	16.5%	3.0%	3.67	3.80	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	56	236	82	23	6	0%	1.3	27.4%	10.9%	16.5%	3.0%	3.67	3.80	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	56	236	82	23	6	0%	1.3	34.7%	9.7%	25.0%	2.5%	3.67	2.80	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	23	0	29	118	36	16	0	0%	1.3	24.7%	14.9%	9.8%	0.0%	2.79	2.90	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	23	0	29	118	36	16	0	0%	1.3	24.7%	14.9%	9.8%	0.0%	2.79	2.90	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	23	0	29	118	36	16	0	0%	1.3	30.5%	13.6%	16.9%	0.0%	2.79	2.27	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	41	0	51	207	66	24	7	0%	1.2	25.8%	12.8%	13.1%	4.1%	2.82	4.76	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	41	0	51	207	66	24	7	0%	1.2	25.8%	12.8%	13.1%	4.1%	2.82	4.76	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	41	0	51	207	66	24	7	0%	1.2	31.9%	11.6%	20.3%	3.4%	2.82	3.71	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	LAD	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	25.4%	12.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAD	25	0	26	111	28	14	3	0%	1.1	25.0%	12.3%	12.8%	3.1%	4.60	4.64	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAD	10	0	10	42	11	5	1	0%	1.0	25.0%	12.3%	12.8%	3.1%	4.60	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.1	25.0%	12.3%	12.8%	3.1%	4.60	4.26	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	202	101	20	0%	1.1	25.0%	12.3%	12.8%	3.1%	4.60	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		148	0	195	800	213	95	22	0%	1.3	26.7%	11.9%	14.8%	2.7%	3.24	3.86	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	0	200	822	219	98	23	0%	1.3	26.7%	11.9%	14.8%	2.7%	3.24	3.86	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AATulsa Drillers · 51 IPFIP 3.73 → 4.76 (+1.03)K% 31.9% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.88%	—	×0.810	25.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.59%	—	×1.100	12.75%
HR / BF /BF	3.38%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.06%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.73 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AATulsa Drillers · 29 IPFIP 2.24 → 2.90 (+0.66)K% 30.5% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.51%	—	×0.810	24.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.56%	—	×1.100	14.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.957	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.24 → 2.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATulsa Drillers · 27 IPFIP 3.27 → 4.07 (+0.80)K% 30.4% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.40%	—	×0.810	24.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.20%	—	×1.100	12.32%
HR / BF /BF	2.40%	÷1.063	×1.200	2.71%

Result: FIP 3.27 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Great Lakes Loons · 29 IPFIP 2.26 → 3.49 (+1.23)K% 39.6% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.64%	—	×0.770	30.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.11%	—	×1.150	9.32%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.036	×1.250	3.26%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.26 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 33 IPFIP 0.59 → 1.80 (+1.21)K% 43.6% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.61%	—	×0.740	32.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.02%	—	×1.180	7.10%
HR / BF /BF	0.75%	÷1.025	×1.300	0.95%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 0.59 → 1.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Great Lakes Loons · 25 IPFIP 4.45 → 5.90 (+1.45)K% 28.3% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.30%	—	×0.770	21.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.21%	—	×1.150	15.19%
HR / BF /BF	3.77%	÷0.951	×1.250	4.96%

Result: FIP 4.45 → 5.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Wepf (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	25.4%	12.4%	3.0%	—	4.64	25.0%	12.8%	26	+0.06	—	—	—
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	90
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	86
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	86
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	85
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	85
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	85
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	84
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	84
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	84
Scott Dohmann R 2005 · 4.93 FIP	27	SU	4.93	24.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.321	4.69	18.9%	7.5%	96	-0.24	4.28	173	84
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	83
Anthony Varvaro R 2012 · 3.66 FIP	27	SU	3.66	27.6%	10.5%	2.8%	.311	3.30	17.7%	11.0%	139	-0.36	3.02	208	82
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	82
Ryan Garton R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	25.2%	11.3%	2.3%	.252	4.15	23.5%	10.8%	108	+0.48	3.14	307	82
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	82
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	81
Jason Motte R 2009 · 4.62 FIP	27	SU	4.62	22.1%	9.0%	4.1%	.297	2.84	26.9%	21.0%	192	-1.78	2.22	387	81
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	81
Spencer Patton R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	27	SU	3.47	26.8%	9.6%	2.6%	.295	2.79	30.3%	18.1%	57	-0.68	2.79	239	81
Brian Sanches R 2006 · 5.30 FIP	27	SU	5.30	22.4%	10.2%	5.1%	.295	4.52	19.0%	10.1%	82	-0.78	3.39	229	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	25.2%	12.4%	1.19	4.59
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*