Collin Baumgartner

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 28 RHP 6'6" / 250 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	45	56	1.92	2.12	33.3%	10.2%	—	K 26.1% · BB 11.5% · FIP 2.99
2025	26	MIX2 levels	49	61	2.66	3.20	28.6%	11.4%	—	K 23.7% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.68
2026	27	AAACOL	12	16	7.71	6.65	21.7%	26.1%	—	K 18.7% · BB 23.5% · FIP 5.81
2027PROJ	28	MLBCOL	2	2	5.03	5.03	21.8%	14.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBCOL	6	6	5.03	5.09	21.8%	14.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30) · Joe Colón J (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%21.8%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%7.0%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	8	33	8	3	0	0%	1.4	24.2%	9.1%	15.2%	0.0%	4.32	2.20	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	8	33	8	3	0	0%	1.4	24.2%	9.1%	15.2%	0.0%	4.32	2.26	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	56	225	75	23	2	0%	1.3	26.1%	11.5%	14.6%	1.2%	1.92	2.99	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	56	225	75	23	2	0%	1.3	26.1%	11.5%	14.6%	1.2%	1.92	2.99	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	56	225	75	23	2	0%	1.3	33.3%	10.2%	23.1%	0.9%	1.92	2.12	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	61	255	73	29	5	0%	1.2	23.7%	11.8%	11.9%	2.0%	2.66	3.68	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	61	255	73	29	5	0%	1.2	23.7%	11.8%	11.9%	2.0%	2.66	3.68	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	61	255	73	29	5	0%	1.2	28.6%	11.4%	17.3%	2.0%	2.66	3.20	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	12	0	16	92	20	24	2	0%	1.4	18.7%	23.5%	-4.8%	2.4%	7.71	5.81	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	12	0	16	92	20	24	2	0%	1.4	18.7%	23.5%	-4.8%	2.4%	7.71	5.81	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	12	0	16	92	20	24	2	0%	1.4	21.7%	26.1%	-4.3%	2.2%	7.71	6.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	COL	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	21.8%	14.9%	7.0%	2.7%	5.03	5.03	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	COL	15	0	16	67	15	10	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.5%	7.2%	2.9%	5.03	5.09	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	COL	6	0	6	25	6	4	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	14.5%	7.2%	2.9%	5.03	5.09	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	25	5	4	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	14.5%	7.2%	2.9%	5.03	4.71	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	137	34	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.5%	7.2%	2.9%	5.03	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		112	0	142	605	144	80	10	0%	1.3	23.8%	13.3%	10.5%	1.6%	3.04	3.67	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	0	200	852	203	113	14	0%	1.3	23.8%	13.3%	10.5%	1.6%	3.04	3.67	-1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 16 IPFIP 5.76 → 5.81 (+0.05)K% 21.7% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.74%	—	×0.860	18.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	26.09%	—	×0.900	23.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.39%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.76 → 5.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHartford Yard Goats · 39 IPFIP 3.18 → 3.76 (+0.58)K% 29.4% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.45%	—	×0.810	23.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.27%	—	×1.100	13.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.84%	÷1.255	×1.200	1.76%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 3.18 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 22 IPFIP 3.24 → 3.53 (+0.29)K% 27.2% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.17%	—	×0.860	23.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.78%	—	×0.900	8.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷1.017	×1.100	2.35%

Result: FIP 3.24 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHartford Yard Goats · 37 IPFIP 2.75 → 3.56 (+0.81)K% 28.7% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.66%	—	×0.810	23.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.83%	—	×1.100	11.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷0.916	×1.200	1.67%

Result: FIP 2.75 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFresno Grizzlies · 19 IPFIP 0.49 → 1.66 (+1.17)K% 44.1% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.12%	—	×0.740	32.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.180	10.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.002	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.49 → 1.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Collin Baumgartner (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	21.8%	14.9%	2.7%	—	5.09	21.8%	7.2%	16	+0.06	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	87
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	84
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	82
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	81
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	80
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	80
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	80
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80
Erik Davis R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	17.9%	13.5%	1.2%	.363	3.64	21.1%	11.3%	181	-0.31	3.05	227	79
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	79
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	79
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	78
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	78
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	78
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	78
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	78
José A. Váldez R 2018 · 4.02 FIP	28	SU	4.02	23.1%	16.2%	1.5%	.325	4.21	16.8%	6.2%	103	+0.19	4.02	328	78
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	77