Brandon Beckel
P
Jersey Shore BlueClaws
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA4.93
FIP4.93
K%16.7%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%6.4%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 6.75 | 6.83 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 6.75 | 6.85 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 3 | 54 | 232 | 65 | 22 | 3 | 10% | 1.8 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 1.6% | 3.33 | 3.66 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 3 | 54 | 232 | 65 | 22 | 3 | 10% | 1.8 | 28.0% | 9.5% | 18.5% | 1.3% | 3.33 | 2.64 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 7 | 78 | 330 | 71 | 30 | 7 | 25% | 2.8 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 3.58 | 4.30 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 7 | 78 | 330 | 71 | 30 | 7 | 25% | 2.8 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 2.1% | 3.58 | 3.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 19 | 3 | 43 | 180 | 51 | 10 | 5 | 16% | 2.3 | 21.8% | 6.4% | 15.4% | 3.5% | 3.95 | 3.97 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PHI | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 47 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 4.93 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.7% | 10.2% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 4.93 | 4.93 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 111 | 464 | 98 | 39 | 13 | — | — | 21.2% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.55 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.7% | 10.2% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 4.93 | 4.55 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 51 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 53 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 53 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 35 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 41 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 0 | 127 | 534 | 98 | 52 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.37 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 155 | 82 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 81 | 13 | 179 | 759 | 142 | 70 | 19 | 16% | 2.2 | 18.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 3.66 | 4.08 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 90 | 14 | 200 | 846 | 159 | 78 | 22 | 16% | 2.2 | 18.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 3.66 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Beckel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.75 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 203 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.09 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 274 | -0.16 | 3.69 | 366 | 88 |
| Conor Steinbaugh R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.77 | 16.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 6.87 | 14.3% | 0.8% | 39 | +2.10 | 4.77 | 107 | 88 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 88 |
| Scott Burke R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.84 | 14.2% | 7.7% | 3.6% | .316 | 5.01 | 14.9% | 6.7% | 61 | +0.17 | 4.84 | 119 | 88 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.50 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .286 | 4.16 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.34 | 3.28 | 252 | 87 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 87 |
| Tai Tiedemann R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .305 | 5.99 | 9.8% | -0.2% | 118 | +2.25 | 3.74 | 190 | 86 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.92 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .263 | 5.66 | 16.1% | -1.3% | 133 | +1.74 | 3.39 | 281 | 85 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 84 |
| Tyler Barnette R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.53 | 13.0% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .333 | 3.99 | 10.7% | -3.5% | 13 | -0.54 | 3.53 | 173 | 84 |
| David Reid-Foley R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.89 | 13.8% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .308 | 6.53 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 33 | +1.64 | 4.89 | 110 | 84 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 84 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 84 |
| Diego Granado R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.26 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .335 | 4.40 | 15.5% | 1.1% | 40 | -0.86 | 4.40 | 110 | 84 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 278 | 83 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 83 |
| Pedro Echemendia R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.76 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .286 | 4.02 | 11.0% | 5.9% | 72 | -0.74 | 4.02 | 141 | 83 |
| David Trexler R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.91 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 2.9% | .313 | 4.44 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 31 | -0.47 | 4.44 | 100 | 83 |
| Devin Burke R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.61 | 11.7% | 7.0% | 3.0% | .275 | 3.97 | 13.7% | 8.8% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.97 | 149 | 83 |
| Adam Leverett R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.05 | 15.4% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .309 | 4.76 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 161 | +0.71 | 3.26 | 376 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 1.11 | 4.81 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |