Brandon Beckel

P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	30	3	54	3.33	2.64	28.0%	9.5%	—	K 19.4% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.75
2025	23	MIX2 levels	28	7	78	3.58	3.60	21.5%	9.1%	—	K 17.1% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.36
2026	24	MIX2 levels	29	7	72	4.62	3.02	28.9%	7.2%	—	K 22.1% · BB 8.1% · FIP 4.09
2027PROJ	25	MLBPHI	—	—	0	4.68	4.68	19.2%	9.2%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBPHI	23	0	24	4.63	4.62	19.9%	9.2%	-0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBPHI	30	0	31	4.62	4.63	20.1%	9.3%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control50Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsDerek Gordon (age 25) · Emmanuel Chapman (age 25) · Jarret Whorff (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%19.2%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	4	17	2	2	1	0%	1.0	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	5.9%	6.75	6.83	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	0	4	17	2	2	1	0%	1.0	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	5.9%	6.75	6.85	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	3	54	232	65	22	3	10%	1.8	19.4%	10.3%	9.1%	1.8%	3.33	3.75	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	3	54	232	65	22	3	10%	1.8	19.4%	10.3%	9.1%	1.8%	3.33	3.75	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	3	54	232	65	22	3	10%	1.8	28.0%	9.5%	18.5%	1.3%	3.33	2.64	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	7	78	330	71	30	7	25%	2.8	17.1%	9.8%	7.2%	2.6%	3.58	4.36	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	7	78	330	71	30	7	25%	2.8	17.1%	9.8%	7.2%	2.6%	3.58	4.36	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	7	78	330	71	30	7	25%	2.8	21.5%	9.1%	12.4%	2.1%	3.58	3.60	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	7	72	304	88	22	8	24%	2.5	22.1%	8.1%	14.0%	3.3%	4.62	4.09	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	7	72	304	88	22	8	24%	2.5	22.1%	8.1%	14.0%	3.3%	4.62	4.09	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	7	72	304	88	22	8	24%	2.5	28.9%	7.2%	21.7%	2.6%	4.62	3.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.0%	4.68	4.68	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PHI	53	0	55	234	46	21	7	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.2%	10.7%	3.0%	4.63	4.62	-0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	PHI	47	0	49	206	42	19	6	0%	1.0	20.1%	9.3%	10.8%	3.1%	4.62	4.63	-0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	PHI	43	0	45	190	38	18	6	0%	1.0	20.2%	9.4%	10.7%	3.2%	4.67	4.70	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	PHI	39	0	41	174	35	17	6	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.6%	10.3%	3.3%	4.76	4.83	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	PHI	23	0	24	101	20	9	3	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.2%	10.7%	3.0%	4.63	4.62	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	PHI	30	0	31	131	26	12	4	0%	1.0	20.1%	9.3%	10.8%	3.1%	4.62	4.63	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	PHI	32	0	34	144	29	14	5	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.4%	10.7%	3.2%	4.67	4.70	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	PHI	32	0	34	144	29	14	5	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.6%	10.3%	3.3%	4.76	4.83	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	0	122	515	103	48	16	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.4%	10.6%	3.1%	4.67	4.32	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	79	26	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.4%	10.6%	3.1%	4.67	4.32	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		91	17	208	883	170	83	24	19%	2.3	19.3%	9.4%	9.9%	2.7%	3.94	4.15	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	16	200	849	164	80	23	19%	2.3	19.3%	9.4%	9.9%	2.7%	3.94	4.15	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 71 IPFIP 3.03 → 4.09 (+1.06)K% 28.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.67%	—	×0.770	22.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.00%	—	×1.150	8.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.67%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.03 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 76 IPFIP 3.53 → 4.36 (+0.83)K% 22.2% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.15%	—	×0.770	17.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.54%	—	×1.150	9.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.045	×1.250	2.65%

Result: FIP 3.53 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AClearwater Threshers · 47 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.75 (+0.91)K% 26.2% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.15%	—	×0.740	19.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.72%	—	×1.180	10.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.115	×1.300	1.79%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 7 IPFIP 1.62 → 2.61 (+0.99)K% 37.8% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.84%	—	×0.770	29.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.51%	—	×1.150	15.54%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.926	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.62 → 2.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Beckel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	19.2%	9.2%	3.0%	—	4.65	20.0%	10.7%	149	-0.03	—	—	—
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	91
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	90
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	90
Adam Warren R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	19.3%	8.5%	2.8%	.306	3.43	20.5%	13.1%	275	-0.66	2.65	548	87
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	87
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	87
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	86
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	85
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	85
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	84
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	84
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	84
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	83
Corey Baker R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SW	3.77	17.4%	10.2%	1.5%	.295	4.97	15.5%	7.3%	170	+1.20	3.06	267	83
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	83
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	83
Seth McGarry R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	17.1%	9.6%	3.2%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	261	82
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	82
Fernando Nieve R 2006 · 5.18 FIP	24	SW	5.18	17.0%	8.8%	4.4%	.240	4.67	14.3%	3.1%	37	-0.51	1.96	287	82
Ariel Peña R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SW	3.74	21.3%	9.5%	2.3%	.300	4.92	19.9%	5.6%	92	+1.18	3.74	223	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	52	19.8%	9.3%	1.20	4.67
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*