Brandon Beckel — OGILVIE

Brandon Beckel P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%16.7%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%6.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	4	17	2	2	1	0%	1.0	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	5.9%	6.75	6.83	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	4	17	2	2	1	0%	1.0	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	5.9%	6.75	6.83	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	0	4	17	2	2	1	0%	1.0	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	5.9%	6.75	6.85	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	3	54	232	65	22	3	10%	1.8	19.4%	10.3%	9.1%	1.8%	3.33	3.75	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	3	54	232	65	22	3	10%	1.8	19.4%	10.3%	9.1%	1.8%	3.33	3.75	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	3	54	232	65	22	3	10%	1.8	28.0%	9.5%	18.5%	1.3%	3.33	2.64	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	7	78	330	71	30	7	25%	2.8	17.1%	9.8%	7.2%	2.6%	3.58	4.36	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	7	78	330	71	30	7	25%	2.8	17.1%	9.8%	7.2%	2.6%	3.58	4.36	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	7	78	330	71	30	7	25%	2.8	21.5%	9.1%	12.4%	2.1%	3.58	3.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	29	7	72	304	88	22	8	24%	2.5	22.1%	8.1%	14.0%	3.3%	4.62	4.09	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	29	7	72	304	88	22	8	24%	2.5	22.1%	8.1%	14.0%	3.3%	4.62	4.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	PHI	28	7	71	300	86	21	8	25%	2.5	28.7%	7.0%	21.7%	2.7%	4.69	3.03	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	PHI	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.04	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	PHI	5	0	6	24	4	2	1	0%	1.1	16.7%	10.3%	6.4%	2.9%	4.96	4.96	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	78	328	92	24	9	—	—	28.1%	7.5%	20.6%	2.6%	4.65	4.15	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PHI	68	0	71	301	54	30	9	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.9%	8.0%	2.9%	4.84	4.80	-0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	PHI	68	0	71	301	56	30	9	0%	1.1	18.5%	9.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.77	4.74	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	PHI	67	0	70	297	56	29	9	0%	1.0	18.7%	9.8%	8.8%	2.9%	4.76	4.76	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	PHI	65	0	68	288	54	29	9	0%	1.0	18.7%	10.0%	8.7%	3.0%	4.80	4.84	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	PHI	62	0	65	275	51	28	9	0%	1.0	18.4%	10.2%	8.2%	3.2%	4.90	4.97	-0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	PHI	58	0	61	258	47	27	9	0%	1.1	18.1%	10.5%	7.6%	3.4%	5.05	5.14	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	PHI	30	0	31	131	23	13	4	0%	1.0	17.8%	9.9%	8.0%	2.9%	4.84	4.80	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	PHI	45	0	47	198	37	19	6	0%	1.0	18.5%	9.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.77	4.74	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	PHI	51	0	54	228	43	22	7	0%	1.1	18.7%	9.8%	8.8%	2.9%	4.76	4.76	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	PHI	54	0	57	241	45	24	7	0%	1.1	18.7%	10.0%	8.7%	3.0%	4.80	4.84	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	PHI	54	0	57	241	44	25	8	0%	1.1	18.4%	10.2%	8.2%	3.2%	4.90	4.97	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	PHI	52	0	55	232	42	24	8	0%	1.1	18.1%	10.5%	7.6%	3.4%	5.05	5.14	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		288	0	302	1275	235	128	39	0%	1.0	18.4%	10.1%	8.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.51	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	85	26	0%	1.1	18.4%	10.1%	8.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		91	17	208	883	170	83	24	19%	2.3	19.3%	9.4%	9.9%	2.7%	3.94	4.15	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	16	200	849	164	80	23	19%	2.3	19.3%	9.4%	9.9%	2.7%	3.94	4.15	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Beckel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	16.7%	10.3%	2.9%	—	4.77	18.3%	8.5%	213	-0.19	—	—	—
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	90
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	89
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	88
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	88
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	86
Tai Tiedemann R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	23	SU	3.87	17.5%	9.8%	1.8%	.305	5.78	9.8%	-0.2%	118	+1.91	3.87	190	86
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	86
Corey Baker R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SW	3.77	17.4%	10.2%	1.5%	.295	4.97	15.5%	7.3%	170	+1.20	3.06	267	85
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	84
Tyler Barnette R 2016 · 4.46 FIP	24	SW	4.46	13.0%	10.0%	2.2%	.333	3.99	10.7%	-3.5%	13	-0.47	3.57	173	84
J.C. Flowers R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	24	SU	4.02	17.6%	8.9%	2.3%	.263	5.44	15.6%	-0.3%	133	+1.42	3.59	281	83
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	83
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	83
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	83
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	83
Tyler Wehrle R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	15.8%	10.5%	1.8%	.300	5.42	15.1%	3.4%	60	+1.36	4.06	141	83
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	83
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	83
Adam Leverett R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	24	SW	4.09	15.4%	10.8%	1.7%	.309	5.03	15.1%	7.4%	186	+0.94	3.41	401	83
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	68	18.1%	10.1%	1.17	4.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86