Felix Arronde
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.3 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 108
ERA4.73
FIP4.73
K%16.7%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%7.7%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Royals White | 11 | 2 | 24 | 114 | 24 | 14 | 1 | 18% | 2.2 | 14.3% | 15.4% | -1.0% | 1.2% | 5.25 | 4.51 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Royals White | 11 | 2 | 24 | 114 | 24 | 14 | 1 | 18% | 2.2 | 21.1% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 0.9% | 5.25 | 3.39 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL KC Glass | 12 | 12 | 35 | 164 | 50 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 2.9 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 4.5% | 6.94 | 5.08 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL KC Glass | 12 | 12 | 35 | 164 | 50 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 2.9 | 30.5% | 7.9% | 22.6% | 2.4% | 6.94 | 2.84 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 7 | 49 | 198 | 58 | 21 | 5 | 54% | 3.7 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 2.22 | 4.42 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 7 | 49 | 198 | 58 | 21 | 5 | 54% | 3.7 | 29.3% | 10.6% | 18.7% | 2.5% | 2.22 | 3.35 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 23 | 21 | 110 | 439 | 103 | 32 | 9 | 91% | 4.8 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 2.94 | 4.13 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 23 | 21 | 110 | 439 | 103 | 32 | 9 | 91% | 4.8 | 23.5% | 7.3% | 16.2% | 2.1% | 2.94 | 3.16 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 26 | 24 | 129 | 517 | 101 | 42 | 9 | 92% | 4.9 | 15.0% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 2.80 | 4.25 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 26 | 24 | 129 | 517 | 101 | 42 | 9 | 92% | 4.9 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 1.7% | 2.80 | 3.42 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 14 | 14 | 60 | 258 | 55 | 27 | 14 | 100% | 4.3 | 17.3% | 11.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.98 | 6.67 | -1.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 46 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.7% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | KC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | KC | — | — | 124 | 532 | 101 | 52 | 22 | — | — | 18.9% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 4.85 | 5.66 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | KC | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.7% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.30 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | KC | 27 | 27 | 152 | 643 | 122 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.48 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | KC | 26 | 26 | 154 | 651 | 132 | 54 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.34 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | KC | 26 | 26 | 154 | 651 | 137 | 54 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.27 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | KC | 25 | 25 | 152 | 642 | 135 | 53 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | KC | 25 | 25 | 147 | 622 | 130 | 53 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.39 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | KC | 23 | 23 | 141 | 594 | 123 | 52 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.52 | +1.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 132 | 559 | 114 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.70 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 124 | 521 | 104 | 49 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.9% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.90 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 53 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 103 | 435 | 88 | 36 | 12 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.29 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 109 | 43 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.22 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 130 | 549 | 115 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 131 | 553 | 116 | 47 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.34 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 128 | 540 | 112 | 47 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.47 | +1.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 122 | 515 | 105 | 46 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.64 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 97 | 45 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.9% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.84 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 155 | 155 | 920 | 3886 | 796 | 336 | 113 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.05 | +14.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 173 | 73 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.05 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 99 | 80 | 406 | 1690 | 289 | 173 | 54 | 81% | 4.1 | 17.1% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 3.59 | 4.71 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 39 | 200 | 832 | 142 | 85 | 27 | 81% | 4.1 | 17.1% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 3.59 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Felix Arronde (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.73 | 16.7% | 9.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.7% | 461 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Michael Lorenzen R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.61 | 14.7% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .289 | 3.58 | 20.1% | 12.0% | 214 | -1.03 | 3.20 | 1,151 | 89 |
| Jordan Jackson R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 2.4% | .323 | 5.46 | 13.1% | 1.7% | 74 | +1.22 | 4.24 | 193 | 88 |
| Buck Farmer R 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.54 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .307 | 4.08 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 370 | -0.46 | 3.05 | 907 | 85 |
| Sam Highfill R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 84 |
| Duncan Robinson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.06 | 14.5% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .278 | 3.57 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 153 | -0.49 | 3.48 | 279 | 84 |
| Barrett Astin R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.95 | 15.0% | 9.9% | 1.6% | .304 | 3.84 | 18.4% | 10.9% | 152 | -0.11 | 3.84 | 303 | 83 |
| Brady Feigl R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.81 | 15.9% | 7.0% | 2.1% | .333 | 5.77 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 122 | +1.96 | 3.81 | 257 | 83 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 15.7% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .260 | 4.50 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 343 | +0.44 | 3.73 | 725 | 83 |
| Jonathan Cannon R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.71 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .311 | 4.59 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 364 | -0.12 | 4.33 | 485 | 83 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.80 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 2.1% | .299 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 14.5% | 424 | +0.26 | 3.80 | 651 | 82 |
| Tony Dibrell R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.59 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.79 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 58 | +1.20 | 4.21 | 347 | 82 |
| Benton Moss R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.78 | 15.8% | 7.8% | 1.9% | .297 | 4.76 | 15.1% | 9.1% | 172 | +0.98 | 3.78 | 310 | 82 |
| Kyle Lloyd R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 18.3% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .327 | 3.81 | 17.3% | 8.9% | 324 | -0.69 | 3.46 | 572 | 82 |
| Jamison Hill R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.09 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .280 | 4.70 | 16.1% | 3.0% | 202 | -0.39 | 4.44 | 326 | 82 |
| Brandon Birdsell R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.78 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 2.0% | .266 | 4.26 | 19.9% | 13.7% | 154 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 262 | 82 |
| Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.30 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .287 | 3.81 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 362 | -0.49 | 3.73 | 540 | 82 |
| Tyler Cravy R 2029 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.08 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.3% | .305 | 4.72 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 138 | +0.64 | 4.01 | 276 | 82 |
| Rafael Montero R 2028 · 4.66 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.6% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .325 | 3.79 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 177 | -0.87 | 2.38 | 663 | 82 |
| Angel Ventura R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.10 | 17.9% | 10.9% | 2.1% | .285 | 4.56 | 14.8% | 4.8% | 153 | +0.46 | 3.32 | 393 | 82 |
| Ty Cummings R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.18 | 14.2% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .282 | 5.67 | 15.1% | 5.6% | 34 | +0.49 | 4.14 | 267 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 145 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 1.14 | 4.50 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS | 9 | 125 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 4.25 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |