Felix Arronde — OGILVIE

Felix Arronde P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.5 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION105 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%16.7%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL5050

CMD4550

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$7M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$13M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals White	11	2	24	114	24	14	1	18%	2.2	14.3%	15.4%	-1.0%	1.2%	5.25	4.51	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals White	11	2	24	114	24	14	1	18%	2.2	21.1%	12.3%	8.8%	0.9%	5.25	3.39	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL KC Glass	12	12	35	164	50	13	4	100%	2.9	20.7%	9.9%	10.8%	3.9%	6.94	4.74	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL KC Glass	12	12	35	164	50	13	4	100%	2.9	30.5%	7.9%	22.6%	2.4%	6.94	2.84	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	49	198	58	21	5	54%	3.7	20.2%	12.1%	8.1%	2.7%	2.22	4.42	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	49	198	58	21	5	54%	3.7	20.2%	12.1%	8.1%	2.7%	2.22	4.42	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	7	49	198	58	21	5	54%	3.7	29.3%	10.6%	18.7%	2.5%	2.22	3.35	—
2024	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	21	110	439	103	32	9	91%	4.8	17.4%	8.6%	8.8%	2.6%	2.94	4.16	—
2024	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	21	110	439	103	32	9	91%	4.8	17.4%	8.6%	8.8%	2.6%	2.94	4.16	—
2024	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	23	21	110	439	103	32	9	91%	4.8	23.5%	7.3%	16.2%	2.1%	2.94	3.16	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	26	24	129	517	101	42	9	92%	4.9	15.0%	9.3%	5.7%	2.2%	2.80	4.23	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	26	24	129	517	101	42	9	92%	4.9	15.0%	9.3%	5.7%	2.2%	2.80	4.23	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	26	24	129	517	101	42	9	92%	4.9	19.5%	8.1%	11.4%	1.7%	2.80	3.42	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	24	22	105	484	91	54	25	92%	4.4	15.2%	12.3%	3.0%	6.2%	6.49	6.77	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	24	22	105	484	91	54	25	92%	4.4	15.2%	12.3%	3.0%	6.2%	6.49	6.77	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	KC	24	22	105	484	91	54	25	92%	4.4	18.8%	11.2%	7.6%	5.2%	6.49	5.76	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	KC	2	2	13	53	9	5	1	100%	6.3	16.7%	9.0%	7.7%	2.7%	4.72	4.72	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	118	537	100	59	26	—	—	18.6%	10.9%	7.6%	4.9%	6.31	6.55	-2.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	KC	27	27	152	643	122	55	18	100%	5.6	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	2.7%	4.56	4.48	+0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	154	651	132	54	18	100%	5.9	20.2%	8.3%	11.9%	2.7%	4.42	4.34	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	154	651	137	54	18	100%	5.9	21.0%	8.3%	12.8%	2.8%	4.32	4.27	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	25	25	152	642	135	53	18	100%	6.1	21.0%	8.3%	12.7%	2.8%	4.31	4.30	+1.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	25	25	147	622	130	53	18	100%	5.9	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	2.9%	4.36	4.39	+0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	141	594	123	52	18	100%	6.1	20.7%	8.7%	12.0%	3.1%	4.46	4.52	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	22	22	132	559	114	50	18	100%	6.0	20.3%	9.0%	11.3%	3.3%	4.60	4.70	+0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	124	521	104	49	18	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.4%	10.6%	3.5%	4.78	4.90	0.0
2035	32	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	114	482	94	47	18	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	3.7%	4.99	5.12	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	67	283	53	24	7	100%	5.6	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	2.5%	4.45	4.37	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	103	435	88	36	11	100%	5.7	20.2%	8.3%	11.9%	2.5%	4.31	4.23	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	123	519	109	43	13	100%	6.2	21.0%	8.3%	12.8%	2.6%	4.21	4.16	+0.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	130	549	115	46	14	100%	5.9	21.0%	8.3%	12.7%	2.6%	4.19	4.18	+0.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	131	553	116	47	15	100%	6.0	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	2.7%	4.24	4.27	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	21	21	128	540	112	47	15	100%	6.1	20.7%	8.7%	12.0%	2.8%	4.33	4.39	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	122	515	105	46	16	100%	6.1	20.3%	9.0%	11.3%	3.0%	4.47	4.57	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	KC	19	19	115	486	97	45	16	100%	6.1	19.9%	9.4%	10.6%	3.2%	4.64	4.76	0.0
2035	32	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	107	452	88	44	16	100%	5.9	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	3.5%	4.84	4.97	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	172	1026	4333	883	379	123	100%	6.0	20.4%	8.8%	11.6%	2.8%	4.40	4.04	+10.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	172	74	24	100%	6.0	20.4%	8.8%	11.6%	2.8%	4.40	4.04	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		109	88	452	1916	318	203	66	81%	4.1	16.6%	10.6%	6.0%	3.4%	4.08	4.93	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	39	200	848	141	90	29	81%	4.1	16.6%	10.6%	6.0%	3.4%	4.08	4.93	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Felix Arronde (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	16.7%	9.0%	2.7%	—	4.36	20.1%	11.7%	461	-0.36	—	—	—
Michael Lorenzen R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	14.7%	8.7%	2.9%	.289	3.56	20.1%	12.0%	214	-1.02	3.17	1,178	90
Jordan Jackson R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.36	4.15	193	88
Buck Farmer R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP-	4.41	16.4%	7.4%	3.2%	.307	4.01	19.6%	10.9%	370	-0.40	3.16	907	85
Barrett Astin R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	23	SP	3.98	15.0%	9.9%	1.6%	.304	3.77	18.4%	10.9%	152	-0.21	3.71	303	85
Brady Feigl R 2019 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP	3.93	15.9%	7.0%	2.3%	.333	5.26	19.4%	9.8%	122	+1.33	3.93	257	84
Benton Moss R 2016 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	15.8%	7.8%	2.1%	.297	4.75	15.1%	9.1%	172	+0.85	3.90	310	84
Duncan Robinson R 2017 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	14.5%	6.5%	2.1%	.278	3.51	15.4%	10.2%	153	-0.35	3.41	279	84
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	84
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	84
Kyle Lloyd R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP-	4.03	18.3%	8.1%	2.7%	.327	3.80	17.3%	8.9%	324	-0.23	3.50	572	83
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	83
Will Warren R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP	3.83	18.4%	8.6%	2.2%	.299	4.06	23.5%	14.5%	424	+0.23	3.82	695	83
Tony Dibrell R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.18	347	83
Angel Ventura R 2016 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP-	4.28	17.9%	10.9%	2.4%	.285	4.66	14.8%	4.8%	153	+0.38	3.42	393	83
Derek Diamond R 2023 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	14.4%	6.9%	3.6%	.307	4.58	15.9%	10.1%	151	-0.15	3.53	270	82
Kyle Luckham R 2023 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	14.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.286	4.27	13.7%	6.7%	376	-0.13	3.78	501	82
Rafael Montero R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	16.6%	11.0%	3.0%	.325	3.81	23.3%	13.2%	177	-0.95	2.43	670	82
Randy Bell R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	14.4%	6.6%	3.0%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	120	82
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	82
Jackson Stephens R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	23	SP	4.54	16.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.304	4.02	17.9%	9.0%	166	-0.52	2.77	813	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.1	142	19.9%	8.7%	1.16	4.54
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14