Felix Arronde
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
+1.1
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.9 · 2030
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.9%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%9.7%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.9peak
2030
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Royals White | 11 | 2 | 24 | 114 | 24 | 14 | 1 | 14.3% | 15.4% | 1.2% | 5.25 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL KC Glass | 12 | 12 | 35 | 164 | 50 | 13 | 4 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 6.94 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 13 | 7 | 49 | 198 | 58 | 21 | 5 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 2.22 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 23 | 21 | 110 | 439 | 103 | 32 | 9 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 2.94 | 4.15 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 26 | 24 | 129 | 517 | 101 | 42 | 9 | 15.0% | 9.3% | 2.2% | 2.80 | 4.22 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 2 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 10 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.24 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 96 | 47 | 14 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | KC | — | — | 128 | 541 | 106 | 50 | 16 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.25 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | KC | 25 | 25 | 139 | 587 | 118 | 51 | 16 | 20.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.39 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | KC | 28 | 28 | 153 | 645 | 134 | 55 | 18 | 20.8% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.31 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | KC | 29 | 29 | 160 | 674 | 142 | 57 | 19 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.28 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | KC | 30 | 30 | 162 | 686 | 145 | 58 | 19 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.29 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | KC | 29 | 29 | 162 | 684 | 144 | 58 | 19 | 21.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.32 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | KC | 29 | 29 | 158 | 669 | 140 | 57 | 19 | 20.9% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.36 | +1.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | KC | 28 | 28 | 154 | 649 | 134 | 56 | 19 | 20.7% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | KC | 27 | 27 | 148 | 626 | 128 | 55 | 19 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | KC | 26 | 26 | 142 | 601 | 122 | 54 | 18 | 20.2% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | KC | 25 | 25 | 136 | 574 | 114 | 52 | 18 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +1.0 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | KC | 23 | 23 | 129 | 546 | 107 | 51 | 18 | 19.6% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.79 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 122 | 514 | 99 | 49 | 17 | 19.2% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.92 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 90 | 47 | 17 | 18.7% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.97 | 5.05 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 87 | 68 | 355 | 1466 | 254 | 147 | 38 | 17.3% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 3.35 | 4.33 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 38 | 200 | 826 | 143 | 83 | 21 | 17.3% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 3.35 | 4.33 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Felix Arronde (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.32 | 20.7% | 12.1% | 451 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.79 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .297 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 155 | +0.28 | 3.32 | 315 | 95 |
| Austin Cates R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 93 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 93 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .299 | 4.10 | 24.1% | 14.5% | 424 | +0.27 | 3.31 | 571 | 93 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 93 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.55 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.9% | .280 | 3.89 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 142 | +0.34 | 3.55 | 252 | 92 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.17 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.02 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 296 | -0.15 | 3.77 | 420 | 92 |
| Colton Eastman R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .304 | 4.97 | 17.0% | 2.8% | 155 | +0.64 | 4.19 | 349 | 92 |
| Grant Rogers R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.08 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .297 | 3.89 | 14.2% | 7.6% | 150 | -0.19 | 3.89 | 262 | 91 |
| Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .287 | 3.98 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 362 | -0.36 | 3.84 | 494 | 91 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 91 |
| Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.66 | 20.4% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .315 | 3.76 | 18.2% | 12.0% | 120 | +0.10 | 3.66 | 229 | 91 |
| Brandon Birdsell R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.91 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .266 | 4.11 | 19.9% | 13.7% | 154 | +0.20 | 3.91 | 262 | 90 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 90 |
| Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.12 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 2.8% | .314 | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.6% | 445 | +0.40 | 4.07 | 663 | 90 |
| Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .285 | 5.74 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 160 | +2.02 | 3.72 | 256 | 90 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 89 |
| Logan Martin R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .278 | 4.06 | 15.9% | 4.9% | 91 | +0.11 | 3.95 | 193 | 89 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 89 |
| Austin Love R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .358 | 3.57 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.73 | 3.57 | 182 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.9 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.7 | $16M | +$12M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.5 | $15M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +1.3 | $13M | +$5M |
| Totals | $20M | $94M | +$73M | ||