Felix Arronde

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	A+KC	26	24	129	2.80	3.42	19.5%	8.1%	—	K 15.0% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.23
2026	23	AANorthwest Ark…	24	22	105	6.49	6.00	18.8%	11.2%	—	K 15.2% · BB 12.3% · FIP 6.77
2027PROJ	24	MLBKC	1	1	3	5.65	5.65	16.1%	10.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBKC	9	9	51	5.39	5.30	18.3%	9.9%	0.1
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBKC	12	12	72	5.21	5.13	19.6%	9.7%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 3.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsPaxton Schultz (age 24) · Juan Carlos Sulbaran (age 25) · Forrest Snow (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.65

FIP5.65

K%16.1%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%5.4%

Proj IP149

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals White	11	2	24	114	24	14	1	18%	2.2	14.3%	15.4%	-1.0%	1.2%	5.25	4.51	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals White	11	2	24	114	24	14	1	18%	2.2	21.1%	12.3%	8.8%	0.9%	5.25	3.39	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL KC Glass	12	12	35	164	50	13	4	100%	2.9	20.7%	9.9%	10.8%	3.9%	6.94	4.74	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL KC Glass	12	12	35	164	50	13	4	100%	2.9	30.5%	7.9%	22.6%	2.4%	6.94	2.84	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	49	198	58	21	5	54%	3.7	20.2%	12.1%	8.1%	2.7%	2.22	4.42	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	7	49	198	58	21	5	54%	3.7	29.3%	10.6%	18.7%	2.5%	2.22	3.35	—
2024	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	21	110	439	103	32	9	91%	4.8	17.4%	8.6%	8.8%	2.6%	2.94	4.16	—
2024	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	21	110	439	103	32	9	91%	4.8	17.4%	8.6%	8.8%	2.6%	2.94	4.16	—
2024	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	23	21	110	439	103	32	9	91%	4.8	23.5%	7.3%	16.2%	2.1%	2.94	3.16	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	26	24	129	517	101	42	9	92%	4.9	15.0%	9.3%	5.7%	2.2%	2.80	4.23	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	26	24	129	517	101	42	9	92%	4.9	15.0%	9.3%	5.7%	2.2%	2.80	4.23	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	26	24	129	517	101	42	9	92%	4.9	19.5%	8.1%	11.4%	1.7%	2.80	3.42	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	24	22	105	484	91	54	25	92%	4.4	15.2%	12.3%	3.0%	6.2%	6.49	6.77	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	24	22	105	484	91	54	25	92%	4.4	15.2%	12.3%	3.0%	6.2%	6.49	6.77	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	24	22	105	484	91	54	25	92%	4.4	18.8%	11.2%	7.6%	5.2%	6.49	6.00	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	KC	1	1	3	13	2	1	1	100%	3.0	16.1%	10.8%	5.4%	4.0%	5.65	5.65	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	117	495	90	49	19	100%	5.9	18.3%	9.9%	8.3%	3.8%	5.39	5.30	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	108	455	89	44	17	100%	6.0	19.6%	9.7%	9.9%	3.8%	5.21	5.13	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	102	429	85	42	16	100%	6.0	19.7%	9.7%	10.0%	3.8%	5.14	5.13	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	96	405	80	40	16	100%	6.0	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.9%	5.16	5.19	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	89	376	73	38	15	100%	5.9	19.4%	10.0%	9.4%	4.0%	5.26	5.32	+0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	81	341	65	35	14	100%	6.2	19.0%	10.3%	8.7%	4.2%	5.40	5.50	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	51	215	39	21	8	100%	5.7	18.3%	9.9%	8.3%	3.8%	5.39	5.30	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	72	304	60	30	11	100%	6.0	19.6%	9.7%	9.9%	3.8%	5.21	5.13	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	79	334	66	32	13	100%	6.1	19.7%	9.7%	10.0%	3.8%	5.14	5.13	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	81	342	67	33	13	100%	5.8	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.9%	5.16	5.19	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	78	329	64	33	13	100%	6.0	19.4%	10.0%	9.4%	4.0%	5.26	5.32	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	73	308	59	32	13	100%	6.1	19.0%	10.3%	8.7%	4.2%	5.40	5.50	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	73	434	1832	354	181	72	100%	5.9	19.3%	9.9%	9.4%	3.9%	5.25	4.88	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	163	83	33	100%	6.0	19.3%	9.9%	9.4%	3.9%	5.25	4.88	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		109	88	452	1916	318	203	66	81%	4.1	16.6%	10.6%	6.0%	3.4%	4.08	4.93	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	39	200	848	141	90	29	81%	4.1	16.6%	10.6%	6.0%	3.4%	4.08	4.93	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 105 IPFIP 5.76 → 6.77 (+1.01)K% 18.8% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.80%	—	×0.810	15.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.16%	—	×1.100	12.27%
HR / BF /BF	5.17%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.20%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.76 → 6.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 129 IPFIP 3.43 → 4.23 (+0.79)K% 19.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.54%	—	×0.770	15.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.12%	—	×1.150	9.34%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷0.983	×1.250	2.21%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 3.43 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AColumbia Fireflies · 110 IPFIP 3.17 → 4.16 (+0.99)K% 23.5% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.46%	—	×0.740	17.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.29%	—	×1.180	8.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.05%	÷1.020	×1.300	2.61%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.17 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Royals · 39 IPFIP 2.88 → 4.42 (+1.53)K% 29.7% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.68%	—	×0.680	20.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×1.250	12.10%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.71%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.88 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AColumbia Fireflies · 10 IPFIP 5.06 → 6.49 (+1.43)K% 27.9% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.91%	—	×0.740	20.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.95%	—	×1.180	16.47%
HR / BF /BF	4.65%	÷1.089	×1.300	5.55%

Result: FIP 5.06 → 6.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL KC Glass · 35 IPFIP 2.87 → 4.74 (+1.87)K% 30.5% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.49%	—	×0.680	20.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.93%	—	×1.250	9.91%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷0.879	×1.400	3.88%

Result: FIP 2.87 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Royals White · 24 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.51 (+1.15)K% 21.1% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.05%	—	×0.680	14.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.28%	—	×1.250	15.35%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.23%

Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Felix Arronde (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	4.0%	—	5.19	19.2%	9.4%	327	-0.46	—	—	—
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	83
Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2015 · 6.02 FIP	25	SP-	6.02	14.1%	9.1%	5.4%	.298	4.65	15.0%	6.1%	146	-1.37	4.65	278	83
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	81
Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SP	5.42	16.7%	11.0%	4.3%	.256	5.72	11.7%	-3.6%	23	+0.30	4.31	315	81
Luis Ortiz R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	24	SP	4.92	16.2%	11.1%	3.2%	.297	4.08	21.5%	13.0%	224	-0.84	3.06	585	81
Blade Tidwell R 2024 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP	4.87	19.0%	11.2%	3.6%	.274	4.11	21.1%	11.9%	241	-0.76	3.89	479	81
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	81
Preston Morrison R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	24	SP-	4.97	13.4%	7.8%	3.7%	.300	4.94	17.1%	9.4%	58	-0.03	2.93	305	81
Grahamm Wiest R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP-	5.13	11.1%	7.8%	3.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	120	80
Tony Dibrell R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.18	347	80
Edison Frias R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.19	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.71	4.14	279	80
Mike Vasil R 2024 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP	5.03	15.4%	7.7%	4.1%	.310	3.89	19.4%	8.3%	101	-1.14	3.63	429	80
Ofreidy Gómez R 2019 · 4.78 FIP	24	SP-	4.78	16.9%	10.8%	3.2%	.305	4.06	22.5%	6.1%	94	-0.72	3.58	664	80
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	79
Justin Vernia R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	23	SP-	5.27	17.0%	8.4%	4.6%	.296	4.46	14.7%	10.2%	79	-0.81	4.37	193	79
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	79
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	79
Carson LaRue R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	23	SP	5.25	15.3%	9.1%	4.2%	.307	4.64	21.0%	10.0%	16	-0.61	3.84	360	78
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	78
Shaddon Peavyhouse R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	24	SP	4.78	14.7%	12.4%	2.5%	.299	5.21	14.8%	2.5%	137	+0.43	4.43	270	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	106	18.6%	10.1%	1.52	5.34
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Jack Armstrong ('88-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.9	131	19.2%*	9.2%*	1.59*	4.89*
Armando Galarraga ('12)	2.7	108	14.6%	9.6%	1.56	4.78
Chris Knapp ('75-'80, -1 WAR*)	3.0	121	21.3%*	9.3%*	1.41*	5.48*