Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | A | Modesto Nuts | 26 | 23 | 133 | 600 | 119 | 63 | 10 | 88% | 5.1 | 14.7% | 12.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.98 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Modesto Nuts | 26 | 23 | 133 | 600 | 119 | 63 | 10 | 88% | 5.1 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 1.7% | 4.94 | 3.71 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 29 | 13 | 83 | 389 | 82 | 40 | 8 | 45% | 2.9 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 5.75 | 4.27 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 29 | 13 | 83 | 389 | 82 | 40 | 8 | 45% | 2.9 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 2.1% | 5.75 | 3.82 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 28 | 3 | 54 | 245 | 40 | 28 | 10 | 11% | 1.9 | 12.6% | 13.1% | -0.6% | 4.8% | 6.17 | 6.31 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 28 | 3 | 54 | 245 | 40 | 28 | 10 | 11% | 1.9 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.17 | 5.58 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 36 | 42 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.3% | 14.4% | -2.0% | 3.1% | 5.97 | 5.97 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 38 | 40 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.3% | 14.0% | -0.7% | 3.2% | 5.86 | 5.89 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 38 | 38 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.8% | 13.9% | -0.0% | 3.3% | 5.84 | 5.90 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 14 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.3% | 14.0% | -0.7% | 3.2% | 5.86 | 5.89 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 21 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.8% | 13.9% | -0.0% | 3.3% | 5.84 | 5.90 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 0 | 61 | 256 | 35 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 13.9% | -0.3% | 3.3% | 5.85 | 5.52 | -0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 116 | 119 | 26 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 13.9% | -0.3% | 3.3% | 5.85 | 5.52 | -0.3 | ||
| Career | — | 83 | 39 | 270 | 1234 | 182 | 153 | 36 | 47% | 3.3 | 14.7% | 12.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 5.43 | 5.02 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 29 | 200 | 914 | 135 | 113 | 27 | 47% | 3.3 | 14.7% | 12.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 5.43 | 5.02 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shaddon Peavyhouse (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.97 | 12.3% | 14.4% | 3.1% | — | 5.89 | 13.6% | -0.4% | 133 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 87 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 83 |
| Alex Caldera R 2028 · 5.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.56 | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.61 | 11.9% | 0.8% | 84 | -0.95 | 4.61 | 120 | 79 |
| Chris Jensen R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.29 | 12.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 488 | 79 |
| Robbie Peto R 2024 · 5.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.71 | 15.3% | 13.4% | 4.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.38 | 232 | 77 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 6.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.66 | 12.4% | 14.8% | 5.0% | .314 | 4.38 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 70 | -2.28 | 3.26 | 118 | 75 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 75 |
| Colby Morris R 2024 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 75 |
| Jordan Geber R 2026 · 6.11 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.11 | 14.2% | 18.0% | 3.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 239 | 75 |
| Brad Allen R 2026 · 6.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.07 | 14.7% | 13.2% | 4.6% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 149 | 74 |
| Mike Connolly R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 74 |
| Luis Niebla R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 11.6% | 13.2% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 156 | 74 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 5.97 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.97 | 15.5% | 15.7% | 4.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 261 | 72 |
| Victor Mateo R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.32 | 10.2% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .370 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.51 | 199 | 72 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.81 | 11.8% | 11.3% | 2.3% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 160 | 70 |
| Jacob Dahlstrand R 2024 · 5.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.70 | 8.6% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 119 | 70 |
| Luis Romero R 2026 · 6.19 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.19 | 13.8% | 10.1% | 5.4% | .293 | 5.65 | 11.8% | -1.9% | 68 | -0.54 | 3.99 | 293 | 70 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 69 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.88 | 12.9% | 13.9% | 2.0% | .375 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.51 | 151 | 69 |
| Yordy Cabrera R 2025 · 4.95 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.95 | 12.2% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .335 | 3.48 | 15.7% | 6.8% | 61 | -1.47 | 3.48 | 159 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 13.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.89 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |