Derek Casey
P
South Bend Cubs
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
K%23.6%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%14.2%
ROS IP10
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | A | South Bend Cubs | 22 | 21 | 104 | 445 | 82 | 32 | 13 | 95% | 4.7 | 13.6% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.02 | 5.54 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | South Bend Cubs | 22 | 21 | 104 | 445 | 82 | 32 | 13 | 95% | 4.7 | 18.4% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 5.02 | 4.07 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 11 | 11 | 58 | 252 | 73 | 20 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | 3.24 | 3.01 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 11 | 11 | 58 | 252 | 73 | 20 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 29.0% | 7.9% | 21.0% | 0.8% | 3.24 | 2.07 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 3 | 23 | 102 | 34 | 12 | 3 | 21% | 1.6 | 30.6% | 14.2% | 16.4% | 3.7% | 3.13 | 4.33 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 3 | 23 | 102 | 34 | 12 | 3 | 21% | 1.6 | 33.3% | 11.8% | 21.6% | 2.9% | 3.13 | 3.40 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 1 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.14 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 198 | 66 | 33 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.14 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 47 | 35 | 185 | 799 | 148 | 75 | 27 | 74% | 3.9 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.22 | 4.59 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 38 | 200 | 862 | 160 | 81 | 29 | 74% | 3.9 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.22 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Derek Casey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.52 | 23.1% | 13.5% | 20 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.52 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.31 | 3.21 | 425 | 73 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.22 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.3% | .333 | 4.92 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.30 | 2.32 | 676 | 71 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 69 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 68 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 68 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 65 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 64 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.66 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 114 | -0.51 | 3.26 | 493 | 64 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 63 |
| Chris Mazza R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.90 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .348 | 3.84 | 21.4% | 13.5% | 111 | -0.06 | 3.27 | 563 | 62 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 62 |
| Andrew Triggs R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.57 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 4.0% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.66 | 242 | 62 |
| Tyler Herron R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 60 |
| Justin Masterson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 60 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.37 | 18.8% | 8.5% | 5.1% | .371 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 406 | 60 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.22 | 29.1% | 10.5% | 2.3% | .400 | 3.54 | 26.2% | 11.7% | 32 | +0.32 | 3.22 | 537 | 60 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 59 |
| Cody Anderson R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.36 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 279 | 59 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.58 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .293 | 5.01 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 170 | +0.43 | 3.89 | 250 | 59 |
| Anthony DeSclafani R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.35 | 15.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .309 | 3.93 | 21.0% | 15.4% | 286 | -1.42 | 3.41 | 981 | 59 |