Derek Casey — OGILVIE

Derek Casey P South Bend Cubs

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%24.3%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%14.1%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	23	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	22	21	104	445	82	32	13	95%	4.7	13.6%	8.5%	5.2%	4.2%	5.02	5.30	—
2019	23	A RAW	South Bend Cubs	22	21	104	445	82	32	13	95%	4.7	18.4%	7.2%	11.2%	2.9%	5.02	4.07	—
2021	25	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	11	11	58	252	73	20	2	100%	5.3	22.3%	9.1%	13.2%	1.1%	3.24	2.96	—
2021	25	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	11	11	58	252	73	20	2	100%	5.3	29.0%	7.9%	21.0%	0.8%	3.24	2.07	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	3	23	102	34	12	3	21%	1.6	30.6%	14.2%	16.4%	4.3%	3.13	4.67	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	3	23	102	34	12	3	21%	1.6	30.6%	14.2%	16.4%	4.3%	3.13	4.67	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	3	23	102	34	12	3	21%	1.6	33.3%	11.8%	21.6%	2.9%	3.13	3.40	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	CHC	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	24.3%	10.2%	14.1%	3.0%	4.37	4.37	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	CHC	3	3	20	84	20	9	3	100%	6.7	23.8%	10.5%	13.4%	3.2%	4.49	4.57	+0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	CHC	1	1	6	25	6	3	1	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.5%	13.4%	3.2%	4.49	4.57	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	6	26	6	3	1	100%	6.1	23.8%	10.5%	13.4%	3.2%	4.49	4.19	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	198	99	33	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.5%	13.4%	3.2%	4.49	4.19	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		47	35	185	799	148	75	26	74%	3.9	18.5%	9.4%	9.1%	3.2%	4.22	4.48	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	38	200	862	160	81	28	74%	3.9	18.5%	9.4%	9.1%	3.2%	4.22	4.48	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Derek Casey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	24.3%	10.2%	3.0%	—	4.57	23.8%	13.4%	20	+0.20	—	—	—
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	676	71
Ricky Nolasco R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	32	SP	3.22	20.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.382	4.41	17.9%	11.7%	379	+1.19	3.22	425	71
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	68
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	67
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	66
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	65
Chris Mazza R 2020 · 3.94 FIP	30	SP-	3.94	21.3%	11.0%	2.3%	.348	3.95	21.4%	13.5%	111	+0.01	3.29	563	63
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	355	62
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	62
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	62
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	493	61
Justin Masterson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP-	4.10	18.2%	10.5%	2.2%	.307	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.37	3.50	269	60
Andrew Triggs R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP	4.68	23.6%	9.9%	4.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	1.66	242	59
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	59
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	58
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	58
Forrest Snow R 2019 · 5.53 FIP	30	SP	5.53	18.8%	8.5%	5.3%	.371	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	406	58
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	58
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	58
Tyler Cloyd R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	30	SP-	4.51	16.0%	6.8%	3.5%	.293	4.99	17.2%	9.8%	170	+0.48	3.89	250	58