Payton Martin — OGILVIE

Payton Martin P Tulsa Drillers

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION101 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%16.5%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 106 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL4550

CMD4545

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	14	12	40	159	48	15	1	86%	2.8	22.3%	11.1%	11.2%	0.8%	2.04	3.06	—
2023	19	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	14	12	40	159	48	15	1	86%	2.8	22.3%	11.1%	11.2%	0.8%	2.04	3.06	—
2023	19	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	14	12	40	159	48	15	1	86%	2.8	30.2%	9.4%	20.8%	0.6%	2.04	2.14	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	72	315	54	35	9	100%	3.8	13.0%	12.9%	0.1%	3.5%	3.75	5.54	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	72	315	54	35	9	100%	3.8	13.0%	12.9%	0.1%	3.5%	3.75	5.54	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	72	315	54	35	9	100%	3.8	17.1%	11.1%	6.0%	2.9%	3.75	4.68	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	81	341	82	25	10	90%	3.9	18.1%	8.4%	9.6%	3.7%	4.32	4.67	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	81	341	82	25	10	90%	3.9	18.1%	8.4%	9.6%	3.7%	4.32	4.67	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	19	81	341	82	25	10	90%	3.9	24.0%	7.3%	16.7%	2.9%	4.32	3.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	23	21	101	445	82	45	9	91%	4.4	14.9%	11.1%	3.8%	2.4%	5.61	4.58	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	23	21	101	445	82	45	9	91%	4.4	14.9%	11.1%	3.8%	2.4%	5.61	4.58	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AA RAW	LAD	23	21	101	445	82	45	9	91%	4.4	18.4%	10.1%	8.3%	2.0%	5.61	3.93	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	LAD	1	1	5	22	4	2	1	100%	5.2	16.5%	10.3%	6.2%	3.2%	5.17	5.17	-0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	106	467	86	47	10	—	—	18.3%	10.1%	8.2%	2.1%	5.59	4.61	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	103	433	80	42	14	100%	5.4	18.4%	9.6%	8.7%	3.2%	4.96	4.88	+0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	105	444	86	41	14	100%	5.5	19.5%	9.2%	10.2%	3.1%	4.80	4.72	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	106	450	90	41	14	100%	5.9	20.1%	9.0%	11.1%	3.1%	4.69	4.63	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	106	450	91	40	14	100%	5.9	20.3%	8.9%	11.4%	3.1%	4.63	4.60	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	105	443	90	40	14	100%	6.2	20.3%	9.0%	11.3%	3.1%	4.63	4.63	+0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	102	430	87	39	14	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.2%	11.0%	3.2%	4.68	4.72	+0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAD	16	16	97	410	82	39	14	100%	6.1	20.0%	9.4%	10.6%	3.4%	4.78	4.85	+0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	91	386	76	37	14	100%	6.1	19.6%	9.7%	9.9%	3.6%	4.93	5.03	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	51	215	40	21	7	100%	5.1	18.4%	9.6%	8.7%	3.3%	5.03	4.95	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	74	312	61	29	10	100%	5.7	19.5%	9.2%	10.2%	3.3%	4.87	4.79	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	87	367	74	33	12	100%	5.8	20.1%	9.0%	11.1%	3.2%	4.76	4.70	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	93	393	80	35	13	100%	5.8	20.3%	8.9%	11.4%	3.2%	4.70	4.67	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	95	401	82	36	13	100%	5.9	20.3%	9.0%	11.3%	3.3%	4.70	4.70	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	94	397	80	36	13	100%	5.9	20.2%	9.2%	11.0%	3.4%	4.76	4.80	+0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	90	380	76	36	13	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.4%	10.6%	3.5%	4.86	4.93	+0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	86	363	71	35	14	100%	6.1	19.6%	9.7%	9.9%	3.7%	5.01	5.11	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		114	114	670	2829	563	261	95	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.2%	10.7%	3.4%	4.82	4.44	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	168	78	28	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.2%	10.7%	3.4%	4.82	4.44	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		77	71	294	1260	204	137	36	92%	3.8	16.2%	10.9%	5.4%	2.8%	4.32	4.65	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	48	200	857	139	93	24	92%	3.8	16.2%	10.9%	5.4%	2.8%	4.32	4.65	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Payton Martin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	16.5%	10.3%	3.2%	—	4.74	19.3%	10.0%	314	-0.43	—	—	—
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	89
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	88
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	88
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	88
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	88
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	87
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	86
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	86
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.6%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	86
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	85
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	85
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	85
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	85
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	85
Archie Bradley R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	16.0%	10.4%	2.4%	.315	3.25	24.6%	16.2%	327	-1.15	2.23	570	84
Robbie Peto R 2021 · 5.81 FIP	23	SP	5.81	16.6%	10.7%	5.0%	.303	5.57	15.5%	-1.0%	161	-0.24	5.39	232	84
Hunter Dobbins R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	16.7%	8.6%	3.0%	.371	3.53	18.8%	10.7%	312	-0.88	3.00	498	84
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	84
Michael Matuella R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	13.5%	8.2%	2.3%	.342	4.66	16.5%	3.4%	94	+0.38	3.60	169	84
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	97	19.6%	9.3%	1.25	4.79
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45