Payton Martin — OGILVIE

Payton Martin P Tulsa Drillers

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 118

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%16.5%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%6.0%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL4550

CMD4545

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	19	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	14	12	40	159	48	15	1	86%	2.8	22.3%	11.1%	11.2%	0.8%	2.04	3.05	—
2023	19	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	14	12	40	159	48	15	1	86%	2.8	30.2%	9.4%	20.8%	0.6%	2.04	2.14	—
2024	20	MIX	2 levels	19	19	72	315	54	35	9	100%	3.8	13.0%	12.9%	0.1%	3.3%	3.75	5.46	—
2024	20	MIX	2 levels	19	19	72	315	54	35	9	100%	3.8	17.1%	11.1%	6.0%	2.9%	3.75	4.68	—
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	21	19	81	341	82	25	10	90%	3.9	18.1%	8.4%	9.6%	3.7%	4.32	4.69	—
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	21	19	81	341	82	25	10	90%	3.9	24.0%	7.3%	16.7%	2.9%	4.32	3.60	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	AA	Tulsa Drillers	16	16	73	320	58	34	7	100%	4.6	14.7%	11.7%	3.0%	2.6%	5.40	4.78	+0.0
ROS	22	MLB	LAD	11	11	57	240	40	25	8	100%	5.2	16.5%	10.6%	6.0%	3.2%	5.19	5.19	-0.4
ROS	22	MLB	LAD	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	16.5%	10.6%	6.0%	3.1%	5.14	5.14	-0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB	LAD	—	—	130	560	98	59	15	—	—	17.4%	10.6%	6.8%	2.6%	5.31	4.96	+0.7
2026 FULL	22	MLB	LAD	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	16.5%	10.6%	6.0%	3.1%	5.14	4.76	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	LAD	11	11	59	249	46	25	8	100%	5.4	18.5%	9.9%	8.6%	3.2%	4.99	4.91	-0.2
2028	24	MLB	LAD	11	11	60	255	50	24	8	100%	5.5	19.6%	9.5%	10.1%	3.1%	4.82	4.74	-0.1
2029	25	MLB	LAD	10	10	61	259	52	24	8	100%	6.1	20.3%	9.3%	10.9%	3.1%	4.71	4.65	-0.1
2030	26	MLB	LAD	10	10	61	259	53	24	8	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.3%	11.2%	3.1%	4.65	4.62	-0.0
2031	27	MLB	LAD	10	10	60	255	52	24	8	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.4%	11.2%	3.1%	4.65	4.66	-0.1
2027	23	MLB	LAD	6	6	30	127	23	13	4	100%	5.0	18.5%	9.9%	8.6%	3.1%	4.94	4.86	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	LAD	8	8	43	182	36	17	5	100%	5.4	19.6%	9.5%	10.1%	3.0%	4.77	4.69	-0.1
2029	25	MLB	LAD	9	9	50	211	43	20	6	100%	5.6	20.3%	9.3%	10.9%	3.0%	4.66	4.60	-0.0
2030	26	MLB	LAD	9	9	54	228	47	21	7	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.3%	11.2%	3.0%	4.60	4.57	-0.0
2031	27	MLB	LAD	9	9	55	232	48	22	7	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.4%	11.2%	3.1%	4.60	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			40	40	231	977	196	92	30	100%	5.8	20.0%	9.5%	10.6%	3.0%	4.69	4.27	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	169	80	26	100%	5.8	20.0%	9.5%	10.6%	3.0%	4.69	4.27	+2.6
Career	—			70	66	266	1135	185	125	33	94%	3.8	16.3%	11.0%	5.3%	2.9%	4.12	4.70	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—			53	50	200	852	139	94	25	94%	3.8	16.3%	11.0%	5.3%	2.9%	4.12	4.70	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Payton Martin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	16.5%	10.6%	3.2%	—	4.76	19.5%	9.9%	181	-0.43	—	—	—
Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	18.8%	10.5%	3.4%	.331	6.04	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.32	4.72	283	90
Will Rudy R 2026 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	15.2%	9.2%	3.0%	.299	5.34	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.69	4.65	194	88
Ryan Harvey R 2026 · 4.98 FIP	22	SP	4.98	16.7%	13.1%	3.0%	.294	3.81	16.9%	3.9%	66	-1.17	3.56	112	88
Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	19.6%	12.4%	3.6%	.321	4.92	22.7%	6.2%	260	-0.10	4.38	406	87
Tommy Mace R 2027 · 5.24 FIP	23	SP	5.24	16.0%	12.1%	3.6%	.261	5.13	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.11	4.93	501	87
Drew McDaniel R 2026 · 5.03 FIP	22	SP	5.03	14.1%	9.1%	3.6%	.323	5.65	18.6%	8.5%	122	+0.62	4.72	200	87
Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	19.3%	9.9%	2.4%	.268	5.93	17.4%	2.1%	47	+1.87	4.06	101	87
Cole Wiper R 2027 · 5.38 FIP	23	SP	5.38	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.33	15.6%	5.2%	136	-1.05	3.85	170	86
Marcelo Perez R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	18.0%	8.6%	2.5%	.288	4.99	14.1%	6.7%	217	+0.97	4.02	285	86
Michael Ross R 2027 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP-	5.05	16.3%	9.9%	3.8%	.275	5.83	12.5%	3.6%	64	+0.78	5.05	146	86
Cade Kuehler R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP	4.21	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	6.79	14.5%	2.4%	73	+2.58	4.21	123	85
Brandon White R 2027 · 5.11 FIP	23	SP	5.11	16.7%	10.3%	3.8%	.264	4.10	17.7%	10.4%	245	-1.01	3.90	264	85
Will Sanders R 2026 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP	5.17	19.3%	11.8%	4.0%	.297	4.04	20.9%	12.5%	167	-1.13	3.89	259	85
Bradley Brehmer R 2027 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	14.6%	9.5%	2.4%	.349	2.88	21.3%	13.7%	82	-1.52	2.76	153	85
Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	19.0%	8.9%	3.8%	.290	5.32	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.60	3.31	191	85
Riley Thompson R 2027 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP	4.88	16.5%	9.4%	3.6%	.288	5.29	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.41	4.52	340	85
Reid Schaller R 2026 · 5.22 FIP	22	SP	5.22	16.3%	13.8%	3.2%	.241	4.48	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.74	3.49	186	85
Tyler Skulina R 2027 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP	4.46	18.3%	11.6%	2.6%	.242	5.24	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+0.78	4.46	222	85
Archie Bradley R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	16.0%	10.4%	2.4%	.315	3.18	24.6%	16.2%	327	-1.18	2.25	570	85
Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	19.3%	9.9%	2.5%	.305	3.42	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.68	2.58	408	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6	60	19.4%	9.7%	1.21	4.83
Drew VerHagen ('23)	6	43	19.7%	9.4%	1.40	4.82
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Adam Conley ('19)	5	83	19.7%	9.5%	1.17	4.82
José Ruiz ('24)	5	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Brandon Maurer ('18)	4	53	21.5%	8.8%	1.06	5.20