Payton Martin
P
Tulsa Drillers
+0.1
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'0" / 170 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.5 · 2030
ERA4.80
FIP4.80
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.9%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%10.2%
IP81
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2030
K†4555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 14 | 12 | 40 | 159 | 48 | 15 | 1 | 22.3% | 11.1% | 0.8% | 2.04 | 3.06 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 19 | 19 | 72 | 315 | 54 | 35 | 9 | 13.0% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 3.75 | 5.55 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 21 | 19 | 81 | 341 | 82 | 25 | 10 | 18.1% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 4.32 | 4.67 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 2 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 10.12 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 81 | 343 | 68 | 33 | 11 | 19.9% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 4.80 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 87 | 368 | 72 | 38 | 11 | 19.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 5.13 | 4.50 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 19 | 19 | 104 | 440 | 93 | 40 | 14 | 21.0% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.59 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 123 | 519 | 112 | 45 | 16 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.46 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 25 | 25 | 136 | 576 | 127 | 49 | 18 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.39 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 135 | 51 | 19 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.37 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 27 | 27 | 146 | 618 | 137 | 52 | 19 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.38 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 27 | 27 | 146 | 617 | 137 | 52 | 19 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 26 | 26 | 143 | 603 | 133 | 51 | 19 | 22.1% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.45 | +1.4 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 25 | 25 | 138 | 585 | 128 | 50 | 19 | 21.9% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +1.2 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 24 | 24 | 134 | 565 | 122 | 49 | 19 | 21.6% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 23 | 23 | 128 | 542 | 116 | 48 | 18 | 21.4% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 123 | 518 | 109 | 47 | 18 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.77 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 21 | 21 | 116 | 492 | 102 | 46 | 18 | 20.7% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 94 | 44 | 17 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 4.92 | 5.00 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 52 | 198 | 840 | 142 | 92 | 25 | 16.9% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 3.81 | 4.69 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 52 | 200 | 847 | 143 | 93 | 25 | 16.9% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 3.81 | 4.69 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Payton Martin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 19.9% | 9.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.47 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 364 | -0.33 | — | — | — |
| Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.29 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .293 | 3.81 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 69 | -0.48 | 3.51 | 157 | 94 |
| Will Sanders R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.90 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.5% | .297 | 4.22 | 20.2% | 11.5% | 139 | -0.68 | 4.01 | 231 | 94 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 93 |
| Mason Hickman R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 5.45 | 24.0% | 10.8% | 181 | +0.72 | 4.73 | 300 | 92 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 92 |
| Josh Bostick R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.71 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .304 | 5.41 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 119 | +0.70 | 4.71 | 226 | 91 |
| Riley Thompson R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 91 |
| Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.43 | 19.3% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .335 | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 254 | -0.37 | 3.55 | 357 | 91 |
| Bryce Conley R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.72 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.89 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.17 | 4.28 | 448 | 91 |
| Derek True R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 18.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .333 | 4.96 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 60 | +0.05 | 4.91 | 157 | 91 |
| Devereaux Harrison R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.96 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 3.5% | .252 | 4.82 | 17.2% | 4.7% | 230 | -0.14 | 4.73 | 324 | 91 |
| Houston Roth R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .263 | 4.85 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.23 | 3.77 | 350 | 90 |
| David Perez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.20 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.21 | 3.99 | 151 | 90 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 90 |
| Nick Davila R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.89 | 18.0% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.07 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 196 | +0.18 | 3.46 | 341 | 90 |
| Will Rudy R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .299 | 5.29 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 113 | +0.50 | 4.79 | 194 | 90 |
| Jake Christianson R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.73 | 3.99 | 188 | 90 |
| Kyle Scott R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.19 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.94 | 15.9% | 4.3% | 42 | -0.25 | 3.94 | 138 | 90 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 89 |
| Osmer Morales R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .319 | 4.56 | 19.2% | 9.6% | 345 | +0.26 | 3.14 | 429 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.4 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.5 | $14M | +$12M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.4 | $14M | +$10M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.2 | $12M | +$7M |
| Totals | $14M | $80M | +$66M | ||