Payton Martin

P Tulsa Drillers

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2030

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#597ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	19	19	72	3.75	4.68	17.1%	11.1%	—	K 13.0% · BB 12.9% · FIP 5.54
2025	21	MIX2 levels	21	19	81	4.32	3.60	24.0%	7.3%	—	K 18.1% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.67
2026	22	AALAD	23	21	101	5.61	3.97	18.4%	10.1%	—	K 14.9% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.58
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAD	1	1	1	5.17	5.17	15.4%	11.0%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBLAD	6	6	32	5.03	4.96	17.3%	10.2%	0.2
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBLAD	8	8	44	4.87	4.80	18.5%	9.7%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.6M2034Arb-2$0.7M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 6.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 80%

CompsTommy Mace (age 23) · Bradley Brehmer (age 23) · Jeremy Lee (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%15.4%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%4.4%

Proj IP71

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	14	12	40	159	48	15	1	86%	2.8	22.3%	11.1%	11.2%	0.8%	2.04	3.06	—
2023	19	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	14	12	40	159	48	15	1	86%	2.8	30.2%	9.4%	20.8%	0.6%	2.04	2.14	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	72	315	54	35	9	100%	3.8	13.0%	12.9%	0.1%	3.5%	3.75	5.54	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	72	315	54	35	9	100%	3.8	13.0%	12.9%	0.1%	3.5%	3.75	5.54	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	72	315	54	35	9	100%	3.8	17.1%	11.1%	6.0%	2.9%	3.75	4.68	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	81	341	82	25	10	90%	3.9	18.1%	8.4%	9.6%	3.7%	4.32	4.67	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	81	341	82	25	10	90%	3.9	18.1%	8.4%	9.6%	3.7%	4.32	4.67	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	19	81	341	82	25	10	90%	3.9	24.0%	7.3%	16.7%	2.9%	4.32	3.60	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	23	21	101	445	82	45	9	91%	4.4	14.9%	11.1%	3.8%	2.4%	5.61	4.58	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	23	21	101	445	82	45	9	91%	4.4	14.9%	11.1%	3.8%	2.4%	5.61	4.58	—
2026	22	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	23	21	101	445	82	45	9	91%	4.4	18.4%	10.1%	8.3%	2.0%	5.61	3.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAD	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	15.4%	11.0%	4.4%	2.9%	5.17	5.17	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	72	305	53	31	9	100%	5.6	17.3%	10.2%	7.2%	2.9%	4.96	4.89	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	66	277	51	27	8	100%	6.0	18.5%	9.7%	8.8%	2.9%	4.80	4.73	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	64	272	52	26	8	100%	5.9	19.2%	9.6%	9.6%	2.9%	4.71	4.66	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	62	263	51	25	8	100%	6.2	19.2%	9.6%	9.6%	2.9%	4.69	4.69	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	59	250	48	24	8	100%	5.9	19.1%	9.8%	9.3%	3.0%	4.74	4.77	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	55	232	44	23	7	100%	6.1	18.9%	10.0%	8.9%	3.2%	4.84	4.90	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAD	8	8	50	210	39	22	7	100%	6.2	18.5%	10.3%	8.2%	3.4%	4.98	5.08	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	32	135	23	14	4	100%	5.3	17.3%	10.2%	7.2%	3.0%	5.03	4.96	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	44	186	34	18	6	100%	5.5	18.5%	9.7%	8.8%	3.0%	4.87	4.80	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	51	215	41	21	6	100%	6.4	19.2%	9.6%	9.6%	3.0%	4.78	4.73	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	53	224	43	22	7	100%	5.9	19.2%	9.6%	9.6%	3.1%	4.76	4.76	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	53	224	43	22	7	100%	5.9	19.1%	9.8%	9.3%	3.2%	4.81	4.84	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	50	211	40	21	7	100%	6.2	18.9%	10.0%	8.9%	3.3%	4.91	4.97	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	46	194	36	20	7	100%	5.8	18.5%	10.3%	8.2%	3.5%	5.06	5.16	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	55	329	1387	260	137	44	100%	6.0	18.8%	9.9%	8.9%	3.2%	4.88	4.50	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	158	83	27	100%	5.9	18.8%	9.9%	8.9%	3.2%	4.88	4.50	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		77	71	294	1260	204	137	36	92%	3.8	16.2%	10.9%	5.4%	2.8%	4.32	4.65	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	48	200	857	139	93	24	92%	3.8	16.2%	10.9%	5.4%	2.8%	4.32	4.65	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AATulsa Drillers · 101 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.58 (+0.65)K% 18.4% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.43%	—	×0.810	14.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.11%	—	×1.100	11.12%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.43%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Great Lakes Loons · 67 IPFIP 4.19 → 5.28 (+1.09)K% 22.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.41%	—	×0.770	17.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.62%	—	×1.150	9.91%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷0.992	×1.250	4.34%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 4.19 → 5.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Dodgers · 14 IPFIP 0.29 → 1.19 (+0.90)K% 33.3% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.680	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.187	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 0.29 → 1.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Great Lakes Loons · 53 IPFIP 4.65 → 5.44 (+0.79)K% 14.5% → 11.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.48%	—	×0.770	11.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.14%	—	×1.150	9.37%
HR / BF /BF	3.17%	÷1.036	×1.250	3.82%

Result: FIP 4.65 → 5.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 19 IPFIP 4.58 → 5.76 (+1.17)K% 23.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.40%	—	×0.740	17.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.09%	—	×1.180	21.34%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.072	×1.300	2.58%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 4.58 → 5.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 40 IPFIP 2.09 → 3.06 (+0.97)K% 30.2% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.19%	—	×0.740	22.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.43%	—	×1.180	11.13%
HR / BF /BF	0.63%	÷1.025	×1.300	0.80%

Result: FIP 2.09 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Payton Martin (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.76	18.3%	8.5%	202	-0.41	—	—	—
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	89
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	87
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	87
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	87
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	86
Michael Matuella R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	13.5%	8.2%	2.3%	.342	4.66	16.5%	3.4%	94	+0.38	3.60	169	86
Cameron Wagoner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	14.8%	9.6%	1.9%	.326	2.66	29.0%	22.4%	43	-1.44	2.66	143	85
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	85
Cade Kuehler R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	7.37	12.2%	-2.2%	109	+3.15	4.22	159	85
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	84
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	84
Brett Wichrowski R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	21	SP	4.11	17.0%	11.2%	1.9%	.267	4.86	16.2%	5.6%	180	+0.75	4.03	269	84
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	84
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	84
Bryce Warrecker R 2024 · 5.43 FIP	22	SP	5.43	11.3%	11.7%	3.3%	.271	3.82	20.1%	9.6%	91	-1.61	2.47	154	84
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	84
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	84
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	83
Darren Bowen R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	16.7%	9.1%	2.2%	.312	6.06	14.4%	2.5%	150	+1.98	3.82	278	83
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	62	18.2%	10.0%	1.16	4.87
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Cliff Politte ('06)	2.1	51	19.3%	9.6%	1.23	4.40
John Grabow ('11)	2.4	60	19.0%	10.5%	1.04	4.31
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*