Bradley Brehmer — OGILVIE

Bradley Brehmer P Frederick Keys

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 205 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 47 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.27

FIP4.27

K%20.8%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP47

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	16	14	70	310	61	25	6	88%	4.4	14.6%	9.5%	5.0%	2.5%	4.61	4.43	—
2023	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	16	14	70	310	61	25	6	88%	4.4	14.6%	9.5%	5.0%	2.5%	4.61	4.43	—
2023	23	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	16	14	70	310	61	25	6	88%	4.4	19.7%	8.1%	11.6%	1.9%	4.61	3.54	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	66	291	79	19	3	0%	1.9	21.3%	7.4%	13.9%	1.1%	4.09	2.83	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	66	291	79	19	3	0%	1.9	21.3%	7.4%	13.9%	1.1%	4.09	2.83	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	66	291	79	19	3	0%	1.9	27.1%	6.5%	20.6%	1.0%	4.09	2.16	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	30	0	37	152	37	15	2	0%	1.2	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	2.2%	4.82	4.29	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	30	0	37	152	37	15	2	0%	1.2	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	2.2%	4.82	4.29	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A RAW	BAL	5	0	6	21	10	1	0	0%	1.1	47.6%	4.8%	42.9%	0.0%	3.18	-0.32	—
2026	26	A+ RAW	BAL	22	0	28	113	25	11	2	0%	1.3	22.1%	9.7%	12.4%	1.8%	3.49	3.44	—
2026	26	AA RAW	BAL	3	0	3	18	2	3	0	0%	1.1	11.1%	16.7%	-5.6%	0.0%	18.90	4.27	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	BAL	56	0	58	247	52	21	7	0%	1.0	21.0%	8.4%	12.7%	2.8%	4.30	4.31	+0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	BAL	54	0	57	239	50	21	7	0%	1.1	21.1%	8.6%	12.5%	2.9%	4.36	4.40	+0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	BAL	20	0	21	89	19	7	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	8.4%	12.7%	2.8%	4.30	4.31	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	BAL	31	0	33	139	29	12	4	0%	1.1	21.1%	8.6%	12.5%	2.9%	4.36	4.40	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	0	55	232	49	20	7	0%	1.1	21.1%	8.5%	12.6%	2.9%	4.34	3.98	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	73	26	0%	1.1	21.1%	8.5%	12.6%	2.9%	4.34	3.98	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		81	14	174	753	133	68	14	17%	2.1	17.7%	9.0%	8.6%	1.9%	4.46	3.78	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	16	200	867	153	78	16	17%	2.1	17.7%	9.0%	8.6%	1.9%	4.46	3.78	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bradley Brehmer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	20.8%	8.2%	2.7%	—	4.35	21.1%	12.6%	115	+0.08	—	—	—
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	88
Joe Navilhon R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	26	SU	3.23	20.5%	7.7%	1.6%	.322	4.28	23.4%	16.7%	99	+1.05	2.25	273	87
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	86
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	85
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	85
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	85
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	85
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	84
Ryan Halstead R 2018 · 4.08 FIP	26	SU	4.08	18.0%	6.7%	3.0%	.296	3.24	16.1%	8.7%	64	-0.84	3.12	222	84
John Brebbia R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	26	SU	4.11	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.346	3.20	27.6%	21.4%	215	-0.91	2.89	575	84
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	84
Conor Mullee R 2015 · 3.26 FIP	27	SU	3.26	17.7%	7.2%	1.4%	.290	2.64	24.2%	16.3%	55	-0.62	2.17	110	84
Cole Johnson R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	26	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.4%	1.5%	.311	3.61	14.0%	9.2%	49	+0.09	3.52	101	84
Josh Martin R 2016 · 3.38 FIP	26	SU	3.38	19.1%	8.7%	1.4%	.279	4.06	21.5%	10.2%	92	+0.68	2.41	225	83
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	83
Esmerling De La Rosa R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	26	SU	3.40	20.5%	7.2%	2.0%	.313	4.86	14.1%	5.8%	66	+1.46	2.89	237	83
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	83
Shawn Armstrong R 2017 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	22.1%	9.2%	3.3%	.282	3.18	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.03	1.79	651	83
Carlos Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	26	SU	3.78	18.2%	8.7%	2.0%	.266	4.37	14.3%	2.3%	36	+0.59	3.75	154	83
Stephen Perakslis R 2017 · 3.07 FIP	26	SW	3.07	21.3%	8.2%	1.3%	.313	5.15	11.8%	5.9%	42	+2.08	3.07	211	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	21.0%	8.4%	1.10	4.31
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19