Bradley Brehmer
P
Frederick Keys
Age 26
RHP
6'6" / 205 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION22 act + 47 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 96
ERA4.18
FIP4.18
K%22.3%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP47
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 16 | 14 | 70 | 310 | 61 | 25 | 6 | 88% | 4.4 | 14.6% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 4.61 | 4.40 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 16 | 14 | 70 | 310 | 61 | 25 | 6 | 88% | 4.4 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 1.9% | 4.61 | 3.54 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 66 | 291 | 79 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.9 | 21.3% | 7.4% | 13.9% | 1.0% | 4.09 | 2.76 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 66 | 291 | 79 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.9 | 27.1% | 6.5% | 20.6% | 1.0% | 4.09 | 2.16 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 17 | 0 | 22 | 89 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.5% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 1.8% | 4.09 | 3.36 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BAL | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 44 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.3% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.18 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 69 | 287 | 73 | 23 | 6 | — | — | 25.5% | 8.0% | 17.5% | 2.2% | 4.15 | 3.92 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.3% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 3.80 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 195 | 44 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 42 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 40 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 70 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.97 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 76 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.97 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 68 | 14 | 158 | 690 | 126 | 59 | 12 | 21% | 2.3 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 4.32 | 3.58 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 86 | 18 | 200 | 872 | 160 | 74 | 15 | 21% | 2.3 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 4.32 | 3.58 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bradley Brehmer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.33 | 22.3% | 13.4% | 134 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .318 | 3.31 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.47 | 2.46 | 362 | 86 |
| Stephen Perakslis R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.17 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 1.5% | .313 | 5.36 | 11.8% | 5.9% | 42 | +2.19 | 3.17 | 211 | 85 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 85 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.1% | .292 | 5.11 | 20.4% | 15.3% | 41 | +1.57 | 3.08 | 210 | 84 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.81 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .316 | 6.96 | 13.7% | 6.1% | 26 | +3.15 | 3.81 | 233 | 84 |
| Joe Navilhon R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.06 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 1.3% | .322 | 4.41 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 99 | +1.35 | 2.12 | 273 | 83 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 83 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 83 |
| Madison Younginer IV R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.24 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .370 | 4.72 | 14.0% | -5.3% | 27 | +0.48 | 3.04 | 219 | 82 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 82 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 82 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 82 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 82 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 82 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 82 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 82 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.16 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .320 | 3.55 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.39 | 2.85 | 185 | 81 |
| Spencer Stockton R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .276 | 5.42 | 19.0% | 5.8% | 63 | +1.23 | 1.93 | 233 | 81 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 81 |
| Joe Broussard R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .316 | 3.66 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 95 | -0.18 | 2.61 | 304 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 45 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 1.11 | 4.26 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |