Bradley Brehmer

P Frederick Keys

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 205 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	ABAL	16	14	70	4.61	3.54	19.7%	8.1%	—	K 14.6% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.43
2024	24	MIX2 levels	35	0	66	4.09	2.16	27.1%	6.5%	—	K 21.3% · BB 7.4% · FIP 2.83
2026	26	MIX3 levels	30	0	37	4.82	3.02	24.3%	9.9%	—	K 17.0% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.29
2027PROJ	27	MLBBAL	—	—	0	4.61	4.61	20.0%	9.9%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBBAL	6	0	6	4.63	4.66	20.2%	9.9%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsLuis Mateo (age 27) · Francisco Del Rosario (age 26) · Michael Dimock (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%20.0%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%10.1%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	16	14	70	310	61	25	6	88%	4.4	14.6%	9.5%	5.0%	2.5%	4.61	4.43	—
2023	23	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	16	14	70	310	61	25	6	88%	4.4	19.7%	8.1%	11.6%	1.9%	4.61	3.54	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	66	291	79	19	3	0%	1.9	21.3%	7.4%	13.9%	1.1%	4.09	2.83	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	66	291	79	19	3	0%	1.9	21.3%	7.4%	13.9%	1.1%	4.09	2.83	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	66	291	79	19	3	0%	1.9	27.1%	6.5%	20.6%	1.0%	4.09	2.16	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	37	152	37	15	2	0%	1.2	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	2.2%	4.82	4.29	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	37	152	37	15	2	0%	1.2	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	2.2%	4.82	4.29	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	0	37	152	37	15	2	0%	1.2	24.3%	9.9%	14.5%	1.3%	4.82	3.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.0%	9.9%	10.1%	2.8%	4.61	4.61	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	BAL	16	0	17	71	14	7	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.9%	10.3%	3.0%	4.63	4.66	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	BAL	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.2%	9.9%	10.3%	3.0%	4.63	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.2%	9.9%	10.3%	3.0%	4.63	4.28	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	161	97	32	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.9%	10.3%	3.0%	4.63	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		81	14	174	753	133	68	14	17%	2.1	17.7%	9.0%	8.6%	1.9%	4.46	3.78	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	16	200	867	153	78	16	17%	2.1	17.7%	9.0%	8.6%	1.9%	4.46	3.78	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 28 IPFIP 3.44 → 4.29 (+0.86)K% 22.1% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.12%	—	×0.770	17.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.73%	—	×1.150	11.19%
HR / BF /BF	1.77%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.21%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.44 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 6 IPFIP -0.32 → 0.84 (+1.15)K% 47.6% → 35.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	47.62%	—	×0.740	35.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.180	5.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP -0.32 → 0.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 35 IPFIP 1.92 → 2.77 (+0.85)K% 31.3% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.33%	—	×0.770	24.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.67%	—	×1.150	9.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.67%	÷1.026	×1.250	0.81%

Result: FIP 1.92 → 2.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABowie Baysox · 31 IPFIP 2.50 → 2.89 (+0.39)K% 22.7% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.70%	—	×0.810	18.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.26%	—	×1.100	4.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷1.249	×1.200	1.36%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 70 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.43 (+0.91)K% 19.7% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.68%	—	×0.740	14.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.06%	—	×1.180	9.52%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷1.020	×1.300	2.47%

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bradley Brehmer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	20.0%	9.9%	2.8%	—	4.66	20.2%	10.3%	17	+0.05	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	83
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	81
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	80
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	80
Cristhian Martinez R 2009 · 3.51 FIP	27	SU	3.51	16.1%	6.2%	1.8%	.294	3.46	19.8%	14.7%	177	-0.05	3.09	204	80
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	80
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	80
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	79
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	79
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	79
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	78
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	78
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	78
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	78
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	78
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	78
Zach Bryant R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	26	SU	4.85	18.0%	9.6%	3.7%	.313	4.87	16.1%	5.0%	106	+0.02	4.51	215	78
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	78
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	78
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	78