Zach Bryant — OGILVIE

Zach Bryant P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%18.4%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP59

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 2	5	0	8	32	11	3	0	0%	1.6	34.4%	9.4%	25.0%	0.0%	1.12	1.38	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs 2	5	0	8	32	11	3	0	0%	1.6	34.4%	9.4%	25.0%	0.0%	1.12	1.48	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	37	0	48	195	65	18	6	0%	1.3	25.7%	10.6%	15.1%	4.3%	3.54	4.65	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	37	0	48	195	65	18	6	0%	1.3	33.3%	9.2%	24.1%	3.1%	3.54	3.14	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	28	0	33	154	30	24	9	0%	1.2	15.8%	17.1%	-1.4%	7.0%	7.64	7.77	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	28	0	33	154	30	24	9	0%	1.2	19.5%	15.6%	3.9%	5.8%	7.64	7.01	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	3	34	152	34	14	5	13%	1.5	18.0%	9.6%	8.4%	3.7%	4.76	4.85	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	3	34	152	34	14	5	13%	1.5	18.0%	9.6%	8.4%	3.7%	4.76	4.85	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	3	34	152	34	14	5	13%	1.5	22.4%	9.2%	13.2%	3.3%	4.76	4.25	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	32	0	48	215	50	21	6	0%	1.5	18.8%	10.7%	8.1%	3.0%	6.14	4.51	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	32	0	48	215	50	21	6	0%	1.5	18.8%	10.7%	8.1%	3.0%	6.14	4.51	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	32	0	48	215	50	21	6	0%	1.5	23.3%	9.8%	13.5%	2.8%	6.14	3.95	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	39	0	57	259	44	27	7	0%	1.5	13.8%	11.5%	2.3%	3.2%	5.34	5.17	—
YTD	28	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	39	0	57	259	44	27	7	0%	1.5	13.8%	11.5%	2.3%	3.2%	5.34	5.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	TEX	39	0	57	259	44	27	7	0%	1.5	17.0%	10.4%	6.6%	2.7%	5.34	4.47	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TEX	54	0	56	237	44	26	8	0%	1.0	18.7%	11.1%	7.6%	3.2%	5.00	5.06	-0.3
2028	30	MLB MLE	TEX	50	0	53	223	42	25	8	0%	1.1	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	3.4%	5.08	5.18	-0.4
2027	29	MLB CTX	TEX	17	0	18	76	14	8	2	0%	1.1	18.7%	11.1%	7.6%	3.2%	5.00	5.06	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	TEX	26	0	27	114	21	13	4	0%	1.0	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	3.4%	5.08	5.18	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	0	45	189	35	21	6	0%	1.0	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	3.3%	5.05	4.75	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	157	94	27	0%	1.1	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	3.3%	5.05	4.75	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		164	3	229	1007	189	117	40	2%	1.4	18.8%	11.7%	7.1%	3.9%	5.23	5.16	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	3	200	879	165	103	35	2%	1.4	18.8%	11.7%	7.1%	3.9%	5.23	5.16	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Bryant (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	18.4%	11.0%	3.0%	—	5.12	18.7%	7.5%	109	+0.13	—	—	—
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	92
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	88
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	88
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	87
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	87
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	87
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	84
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	84
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	83
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	83
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	83
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	83
Logan Bawcom R 2017 · 4.06 FIP	28	SU	4.06	18.2%	10.7%	2.1%	.298	5.19	15.0%	6.4%	164	+1.13	3.73	399	82
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	82
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	82
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	82
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	82
David Goforth R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	28	SU	5.09	13.6%	10.2%	3.4%	.282	4.07	14.1%	5.5%	68	-1.02	3.98	256	82
Collin Balester R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	14.2%	9.3%	2.1%	.240	3.20	21.2%	15.4%	43	-1.02	3.20	116	81
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	18.6%	11.1%	1.24	5.02
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21