Cameron Wagoner P Biloxi Shuckers
Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 187 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%22.3%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.0%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 97 IP
K: +3.2 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+3KBB: +0.4 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+0BBCONTACT: -2.3 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-2CONTACTSTAM: +12.5 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+12STAMTotal WAR: +1.45 (97 IP)+1.4WAR
0.00.51.00.00.30.30.20.00.00.0+$3M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5555
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M
2032Arb-1$0.6M
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.8M $-0.7M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202221MIX2 levels732075242143%2.832.0%2.7%29.3%1.3%1.831.47
202221MIX2 levels732075242143%2.832.0%2.7%29.3%1.3%1.831.63
202322A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers24221004548738792%4.214.8%9.6%5.1%1.8%5.674.07
202322A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers24221004548738792%4.219.2%8.4%10.8%1.5%5.673.41
▸ 2026 Season
202625AABiloxi Shuckers1902710639630%1.429.8%6.2%23.6%3.4%2.023.24+0.4
ROS25MLBMIL67070296662790%1.022.3%9.3%13.0%2.9%4.384.38+0.3
ROS25MLBMIL10141000%1.022.3%9.3%13.0%2.9%4.354.35+0.0
2026 TOT25MLBMIL97402105331226.1%8.3%17.8%2.9%3.734.06+1.4
2026 FULL25MLBMIL1611022.3%9.3%13.0%2.9%4.353.97+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202726MLBMIL67070296672790%1.022.6%9.2%13.4%2.9%4.364.35+0.3
202827MLBMIL66069291662790%1.022.6%9.3%13.3%3.0%4.384.39+0.3
202928MLBMIL64067282642790%1.022.5%9.4%13.1%3.1%4.434.47+0.2
203029MLBMIL61064270602690%1.022.3%9.7%12.7%3.2%4.534.60+0.0
203130MLBMIL57060254562590%1.122.0%10.0%12.0%3.4%4.684.77-0.2
203231MLBMIL53056236512490%1.121.6%10.3%11.3%3.7%4.864.98-0.3
202726MLBMIL30031131301240%1.022.6%9.2%13.4%2.9%4.334.32+0.1
202827MLBMIL42044186421750%1.022.6%9.3%13.3%2.9%4.354.36+0.1
202928MLBMIL49051215492070%1.022.5%9.4%13.1%3.0%4.404.44+0.1
203029MLBMIL50052220492170%1.022.3%9.7%12.7%3.2%4.494.56-0.0
203130MLBMIL50052220482270%1.022.0%10.0%12.0%3.4%4.644.73-0.1
203231MLBMIL48050211462280%1.021.6%10.3%11.3%3.6%4.824.94-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career26602801181263114380%1.122.2%9.7%12.6%3.2%4.524.20+3.9
/ 200 IP190020084418881270%1.122.2%9.7%12.6%3.2%4.524.20+2.8
Career5025146635123521350%2.919.3%8.2%11.1%2.0%4.493.62+3.0
/ 200 IP6834200868168711850%2.919.3%8.2%11.1%2.0%4.493.62+4.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Cameron Wagoner (OGILVIE) 4.38 22.3%9.3%2.9% 4.40 22.6%13.3%206 +0.02
Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP 25 SW 4.06 18.9%9.0%2.6%.311 4.48 17.3%3.8%141 +0.42 3.63 281 87
Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.72 FIP 25 SW 4.72 19.9%9.3%3.9%.315 4.72 146 85
Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.19 FIP 25 SW 4.19 19.7%10.6%2.6%.256 4.43 18.4%2.3%111 +0.24 3.87 192 85
Ariel Peña R 2027 · 3.91 FIP 26 SW 3.91 21.3%9.5%2.6%.300 4.91 19.9%5.6%92 +1.00 3.91 223 83
Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 4.13 FIP 27 SW 4.13 18.4%8.9%2.7%.315 5.25 13.8%4.9%18 +1.12 4.13 115 83
Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.26 FIP 25 SU 4.26 18.9%10.2%2.7%.271 4.65 19.5%11.5%99 +0.39 3.81 233 83
Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.71 FIP 25 SW 4.71 18.3%9.2%3.6%.337 3.27 22.7%12.7%50 -1.44 3.27 339 82
Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.65 FIP 25 SW 4.65 17.1%9.6%3.2%.289 3.44 20.0%7.8%45 -1.21 1.94 143 81
Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.89 FIP 25 SW 3.89 19.0%7.3%2.7%.331 5.46 20.8%10.6%47 +1.57 3.89 141 80
Coleman Huntley III R 2029 · 4.14 FIP 28 SW 4.14 20.2%7.4%3.3%.348 3.66 23.4%13.2%86 -0.48 2.38 160 80
Alex Colomé R 2027 · 3.37 FIP 26 SW 3.37 19.3%5.9%2.1%.309 2.98 25.5%19.3%191 -0.39 2.72 530 79
Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.31 FIP 25 SW 4.31 16.9%8.6%2.8%.338 3.01 22.4%12.3%71 -1.30 3.01 176 79
Noah Bremer R 2026 · 4.24 FIP 25 SW 4.24 18.0%9.4%2.7%.292 5.88 13.1%1.2%46 +1.64 3.14 271 78
Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.03 FIP 25 SU 4.03 16.8%9.3%2.1%.275 8.37 16.9%-3.1%25 +4.34 4.03 161 78
Corey Baker R 2026 · 3.68 FIP 25 SW 3.68 17.4%10.2%1.4%.295 4.83 15.5%7.3%170 +1.15 2.94 267 78
Andrew Bellatti R 2024 · 4.32 FIP 23 SU 4.32 19.3%8.8%3.2%.288 2.71 278 78
Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP 25 SU 4.36 21.7%10.1%3.3%.311 5.39 24.0%10.9%22 +1.03 4.36 152 78
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 5.26 FIP 25 SW 5.26 17.4%11.5%4.0%.321 3.22 25.9%16.8%60 -2.04 2.63 213 77
Jake Lyons R 2025 · 4.31 FIP 24 SW 4.31 20.1%8.5%3.4%.337 4.31 174 77
Phil Klein R 2027 · 3.83 FIP 26 SW 3.83 18.1%11.0%1.6%.280 3.17 24.5%17.9%97 -0.66 3.17 178 77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION76522.3%9.6%1.224.50
Jacob Barnes ('24)74222.1%9.6%1.214.58
Bryan Shaw ('23)86421.4%9.4%1.124.19
Shane Greene ('21)75621.4%8.5%1.164.67
José Ruiz ('24)55222.2%10.4%1.414.41
Drew VerHagen ('23)64319.7%9.4%1.404.82
Hansel Robles ('22)75925.3%10.1%1.163.86