Matt Jachec — OGILVIE

Matt Jachec P Akron RubberDucks

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 205 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 96

ERA4.18

FIP4.18

K%21.0%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	14	60	18	3	1	0%	1.6	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	1.7%	4.50	2.11	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	14	60	18	3	1	0%	1.6	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	1.7%	4.50	2.11	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	14	60	18	3	1	0%	1.6	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	1.7%	4.50	2.10	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	72	305	104	18	7	0%	2.0	25.8%	6.8%	18.9%	2.7%	4.38	3.29	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	72	305	104	18	7	0%	2.0	25.8%	6.8%	18.9%	2.7%	4.38	3.29	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	72	305	104	18	7	0%	2.0	34.1%	5.9%	28.2%	2.3%	4.38	2.23	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	28	122	23	10	1	0%	1.2	15.6%	7.4%	8.2%	1.2%	2.86	3.41	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	28	122	23	10	1	0%	1.2	15.6%	7.4%	8.2%	1.2%	2.86	3.41	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	28	122	23	10	1	0%	1.2	18.9%	8.2%	10.7%	0.8%	2.86	2.99	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	22	1	31	126	45	12	3	5%	1.4	27.3%	10.3%	17.0%	3.4%	2.01	3.95	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	22	1	31	126	45	12	3	5%	1.4	27.3%	10.3%	17.0%	3.4%	2.01	3.95	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	CLE	3	0	4	12	8	0	0	0%	1.3	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2026	25	AA RAW	CLE	18	0	26	107	36	10	3	0%	1.5	33.6%	9.3%	24.3%	2.8%	2.05	2.98	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	CLE	1	1	1	7	1	2	0	100%	1.0	14.3%	28.6%	-14.3%	0.0%	9.00	5.51	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CLE	62	0	65	274	59	21	8	0%	1.0	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	2.8%	4.18	4.17	+0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	CLE	61	0	64	269	58	21	8	0%	1.0	21.6%	7.8%	13.8%	2.9%	4.21	4.22	+0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	CLE	27	0	28	118	25	9	3	0%	1.0	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	2.8%	4.18	4.17	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CLE	38	0	40	169	36	13	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	7.8%	13.8%	2.9%	4.21	4.22	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	69	291	63	22	8	0%	1.0	21.5%	7.7%	13.9%	2.9%	4.20	3.82	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	64	23	0%	1.1	21.5%	7.7%	13.9%	2.9%	4.20	3.82	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		90	1	146	613	150	46	15	1%	1.6	24.5%	7.5%	17.0%	2.5%	3.58	3.33	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	1	200	842	206	63	21	1%	1.6	24.5%	7.5%	17.0%	2.5%	3.58	3.33	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Jachec (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	21.0%	7.4%	2.8%	—	4.19	21.5%	13.9%	129	+0.01	—	—	—
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	90
Blake Goldsberry R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	25	SU	3.43	23.6%	8.3%	2.3%	.257	5.26	23.6%	12.0%	44	+1.83	3.43	117	89
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	87
Joe Colón J R 2015 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	19.4%	7.4%	1.6%	.312	4.07	20.7%	7.8%	65	+0.80	3.27	113	86
Matt Carasiti R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	22.2%	7.6%	2.7%	.313	3.36	23.4%	12.8%	93	-0.32	2.80	312	86
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.36	22.2%	13.5%	185	+0.63	3.73	223	85
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	85
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	85
Daniel Corcino R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	17.2%	7.5%	3.2%	.238	4.76	19.4%	8.2%	263	+0.39	3.84	299	85
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	85
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	84
Colton Hock R 2021 · 3.77 FIP	25	SU	3.77	21.3%	7.2%	2.8%	.304	3.83	17.7%	11.7%	60	+0.06	3.29	253	84
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	84
Seth Frankoff R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	26	SU	4.01	19.6%	7.4%	2.9%	.312	4.29	20.0%	11.3%	177	+0.28	2.88	263	83
Nelson Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	19.6%	7.7%	1.8%	.293	4.98	17.7%	7.8%	115	+1.56	3.42	258	83
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	83
Alex Phillips R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	24	SU	3.26	22.0%	8.0%	1.8%	.263	4.62	23.2%	14.6%	72	+1.36	3.26	139	83
Trey McLoughlin R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	23.7%	8.4%	3.0%	.295	4.59	20.8%	8.4%	121	+0.80	3.77	244	83
Will Vest R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	21.8%	8.5%	2.5%	.282	3.65	20.9%	11.9%	124	-0.06	2.56	448	83
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	51	21.4%	7.6%	1.10	4.19
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47