Marco Raya
P
St. Paul Saints
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.4 · 2029
ERA4.80
FIP4.80
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.8%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%8.9%
IP99
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 19 | 17 | 65 | 263 | 76 | 23 | 8 | 21.4% | 10.3% | 4.0% | 3.05 | 4.77 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 20 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 22 | 22 | 63 | 257 | 65 | 22 | 6 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 4.02 | 3.98 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 21 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 25 | 25 | 98 | 418 | 103 | 44 | 8 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.55 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 30 | 20 | 99 | 451 | 102 | 57 | 16 | 19.9% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 6.02 | 4.58 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 7 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 9 | 6 | 2 | — | — | — | 10.12 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 35 | 20 | 5 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 48 | 207 | 44 | 26 | 7 | 21.2% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 5.70 | 3.99 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 117 | 495 | 106 | 53 | 14 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.65 | 4.59 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 131 | 552 | 121 | 55 | 16 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.46 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 25 | 25 | 138 | 581 | 129 | 58 | 17 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.42 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 26 | 26 | 141 | 594 | 132 | 59 | 17 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.43 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 26 | 26 | 141 | 594 | 131 | 59 | 17 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.46 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 25 | 25 | 137 | 580 | 127 | 58 | 17 | 22.0% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.50 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 133 | 563 | 123 | 57 | 17 | 21.8% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.56 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 129 | 543 | 117 | 55 | 17 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.64 | +1.0 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 124 | 521 | 111 | 54 | 16 | 21.2% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.72 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 118 | 498 | 104 | 52 | 16 | 20.9% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.82 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 112 | 473 | 97 | 51 | 16 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 4.86 | 4.93 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 90 | 49 | 15 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.98 | 5.05 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 99 | 417 | 82 | 47 | 15 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 5.19 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 103 | 84 | 332 | 1429 | 290 | 168 | 43 | 20.3% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.53 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 51 | 200 | 861 | 175 | 101 | 26 | 20.3% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.53 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Marco Raya (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.49 | 21.9% | 11.7% | 386 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.4% | .311 | 4.99 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.09 | 3.35 | 394 | 94 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 93 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.86 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .314 | 4.51 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.35 | 4.05 | 164 | 92 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.84 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .254 | 4.24 | 18.1% | 6.2% | 130 | -0.60 | 4.16 | 159 | 92 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.48 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.10 | 4.15 | 338 | 92 |
| Grayson Thurman R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.71 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.7% | .319 | 4.82 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.11 | 4.56 | 132 | 91 |
| Hayden Snelsire R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.15 | 18.9% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .272 | 3.84 | 18.2% | 11.8% | 79 | -1.31 | 3.84 | 122 | 91 |
| Sean Isaac R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.27 | 19.5% | 12.3% | 2.3% | .342 | 3.77 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 128 | -0.50 | 3.27 | 155 | 91 |
| Kyle Marman R 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 91 |
| Davison Palermo R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.30 | 19.0% | 12.4% | 2.3% | .246 | 4.95 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 108 | +0.65 | 4.30 | 151 | 91 |
| Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .243 | 5.19 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.09 | 4.10 | 112 | 90 |
| Kasey Ford R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.67 | 20.3% | 14.5% | 2.6% | .310 | 4.26 | 21.9% | 5.8% | 98 | -0.41 | 2.53 | 114 | 90 |
| Hunter Dula R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .340 | 4.56 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 91 | +0.66 | 3.90 | 132 | 90 |
| Jayson McKinley R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.39 | 17.5% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .308 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 134 | -0.80 | 2.36 | 173 | 90 |
| Junior Rincon R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.93 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .318 | 3.76 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 82 | -1.17 | 3.52 | 113 | 89 |
| Blake Holub R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.62 | 21.7% | 15.3% | 2.6% | .339 | 3.87 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 156 | -0.75 | 3.42 | 202 | 89 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 89 |
| Brandyn Sittinger R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.38 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 2.6% | .324 | 3.97 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 72 | -0.41 | 3.54 | 152 | 89 |
| Vince Arobio R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.47 | 20.5% | 12.0% | 2.9% | .365 | 3.69 | 24.1% | 16.2% | 55 | -0.78 | 3.69 | 118 | 88 |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.46 | 20.5% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .238 | 4.67 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 61 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 161 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.4 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +1.3 | $12M | +$10M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.2 | $11M | +$8M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.1 | $11M | +$6M |
| Totals | $14M | $69M | +$56M | ||