Marco Raya

P St. Paul Saints

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	25	25	98	4.05	3.41	24.6%	10.5%	—	K 20.1% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.50
2025	22	AAAMIN	30	20	99	6.02	4.87	22.6%	12.6%	—	K 19.5% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.61
2026	23	MIX2 levels	49	1	70	5.12	4.83	26.7%	9.4%	-0.2	K 23.9% · BB 8.2% · FIP 5.34
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIN	43	0	45	5.08	5.08	21.8%	11.0%	-0.3
2028PROJ80% MLB	25	MLBMIN	63	0	66	4.97	4.94	22.2%	10.4%	-0.3
2029PROJ87% MLB	26	MLBMIN	69	0	72	4.88	4.86	22.4%	10.2%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.180First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 3.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsJeff Niemann (age 25) · Casey Legumina (age 24) · Keagan Gillies (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 113

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%21.8%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%10.9%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$8M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.180 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	19	17	65	263	76	23	8	89%	3.4	21.4%	10.3%	11.1%	4.0%	3.05	4.77	—
2022	19	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	19	17	65	263	76	23	8	89%	3.4	28.9%	8.7%	20.2%	3.0%	3.05	3.42	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	63	257	65	22	6	100%	2.8	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	2.5%	4.02	3.99	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	63	257	65	22	6	100%	2.8	25.3%	8.6%	16.7%	2.3%	4.02	3.32	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	98	418	103	44	8	100%	3.9	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	2.8%	4.05	4.50	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	98	418	103	44	8	100%	3.9	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	2.8%	4.05	4.50	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	98	418	103	44	8	100%	3.9	24.6%	10.5%	14.1%	1.9%	4.05	3.41	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	30	20	99	451	102	57	16	67%	3.3	19.5%	11.4%	8.1%	3.1%	6.02	4.61	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	30	20	99	451	102	57	16	67%	3.3	19.5%	11.4%	8.1%	3.1%	6.02	4.61	—
2025	22	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	30	20	99	451	102	57	16	67%	3.3	22.6%	12.6%	10.0%	3.5%	6.02	4.87	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	70	288	77	27	15	2%	1.4	23.9%	8.2%	15.7%	5.9%	5.12	5.34	-0.6
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	70	288	77	27	15	2%	1.4	23.9%	8.2%	15.7%	5.9%	5.12	5.34	-0.6
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	1	70	288	77	27	15	2%	1.4	26.7%	9.4%	17.4%	5.2%	5.12	4.83	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	2.0	16.0%	12.0%	4.0%	4.0%	3.00	5.43	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIN	43	0	45	190	41	21	7	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.0%	10.9%	3.7%	5.08	5.08	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	79	0	83	351	78	36	13	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	3.7%	4.96	4.93	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	79	0	83	352	79	36	13	0%	1.1	22.4%	10.2%	12.3%	3.6%	4.87	4.85	-0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	79	0	82	348	78	35	13	0%	1.0	22.4%	10.1%	12.3%	3.6%	4.85	4.86	-0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	77	0	80	340	76	35	13	0%	1.0	22.2%	10.2%	12.1%	3.7%	4.89	4.93	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	71	0	75	315	69	33	12	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.4%	11.6%	3.9%	4.99	5.06	-0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	64	0	68	285	62	31	12	0%	1.1	21.7%	10.7%	10.9%	4.1%	5.14	5.24	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	63	0	66	279	62	29	10	0%	1.0	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	3.7%	4.97	4.94	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	69	0	72	304	68	31	11	0%	1.0	22.4%	10.2%	12.3%	3.6%	4.88	4.86	-0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	70	0	74	312	70	32	11	0%	1.1	22.4%	10.1%	12.3%	3.6%	4.86	4.87	-0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	70	0	74	312	70	32	12	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.2%	12.1%	3.7%	4.90	4.94	-0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	66	0	69	291	64	30	11	0%	1.0	22.0%	10.4%	11.6%	3.9%	5.00	5.07	-0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	60	0	63	266	58	29	11	0%	1.1	21.7%	10.7%	10.9%	4.1%	5.15	5.25	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		402	0	425	1794	396	185	68	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.3%	11.7%	3.8%	4.93	4.61	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	844	186	87	32	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.3%	11.7%	3.8%	4.93	4.61	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		145	85	394	1677	348	177	60	59%	2.7	20.7%	10.6%	10.2%	3.6%	4.56	4.64	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	43	200	851	176	90	30	59%	2.7	20.7%	10.6%	10.2%	3.6%	4.56	4.64	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 64 IPFIP 4.83 → 5.34 (+0.50)K% 27.8% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.76%	—	×0.860	23.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.13%	—	×0.900	8.21%
HR / BF /BF	5.32%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.86%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.83 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 99 IPFIP 4.74 → 4.61 (−0.13)K% 22.6% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.62%	—	×0.860	19.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.64%	—	×0.900	11.37%
HR / BF /BF	3.55%	÷1.253	×1.100	3.12%

Result: FIP 4.74 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 93 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.50 (+1.00)K% 24.8% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.81%	—	×0.810	20.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.03%	—	×1.100	12.13%
HR / BF /BF	2.01%	÷0.845	×1.200	2.85%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 34 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.90 (+0.86)K% 29.5% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.55%	—	×0.770	22.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×1.150	6.97%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.134	×1.250	3.34%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 127).

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAWichita Wind Surge · 29 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.09 (+0.45)K% 20.8% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.80%	—	×0.810	16.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.20%	—	×1.100	12.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.60%	÷1.231	×1.200	1.56%

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 65 IPFIP 3.44 → 4.77 (+1.33)K% 28.9% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.90%	—	×0.740	21.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.75%	—	×1.180	10.32%
HR / BF /BF	3.04%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.95%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.44 → 4.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marco Raya (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.7%	—	4.88	22.3%	12.1%	249	-0.20	—	—	—
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	82
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	80
Keagan Gillies R 2022 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP-	5.68	17.2%	11.3%	4.7%	.370	3.54	23.5%	13.9%	142	-2.14	2.93	177	79
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	79
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	78
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	75
Jared Kollar R 2022 · 5.13 FIP	24	SW	5.13	16.9%	6.2%	4.9%	.359	4.43	14.4%	6.7%	332	-0.70	3.85	345	75
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	74
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	74
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	74
Greyfer Eregua R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP-	4.87	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	73
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	72
Jeff Manship R 2009 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	14.4%	10.3%	2.7%	.330	4.23	14.9%	9.5%	51	-0.46	2.83	250	72
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	72
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	72
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	24	SW	5.11	18.2%	9.9%	4.2%	.304	3.67	18.0%	9.9%	189	-1.44	3.51	330	71
Hunter Gregory R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.0%	12.1%	2.0%	.322	5.10	20.1%	8.3%	161	+1.04	3.84	249	71
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	71
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	70
Austin Bergner R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	24	SW	4.99	24.0%	10.9%	4.6%	.277	4.87	21.6%	10.0%	274	-0.12	4.06	464	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	78	22.1%	10.4%	1.45	4.94
Rich DeLucia ('90-'99, 1 WAR*)	3.1	78	23.2%*	10.5%*	1.55*	4.65*
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Joey Wentz ('25)	1.5	76	21.1%	9.9%	1.36	5.57