Marco Raya — OGILVIE

Marco Raya P St. Paul Saints

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.3 · 2029 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%20.1%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$19M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL4045

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$4M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$6M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$8M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	19	17	65	263	76	23	8	89%	3.4	21.4%	10.3%	11.1%	4.0%	3.05	4.77	—
2022	19	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	19	17	65	263	76	23	8	89%	3.4	28.9%	8.7%	20.2%	3.0%	3.05	3.42	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	63	257	65	22	6	100%	2.8	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	2.5%	4.02	3.99	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	63	257	65	22	6	100%	2.8	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	2.5%	4.02	3.99	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	63	257	65	22	6	100%	2.8	25.3%	8.6%	16.7%	2.3%	4.02	3.32	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	98	418	103	44	8	100%	3.9	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	2.8%	4.05	4.50	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	98	418	103	44	8	100%	3.9	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	2.8%	4.05	4.50	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	98	418	103	44	8	100%	3.9	24.6%	10.5%	14.1%	1.9%	4.05	3.41	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	30	20	99	451	102	57	16	67%	3.3	18.8%	11.4%	7.4%	3.1%	6.02	4.67	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	30	20	99	451	102	57	16	67%	3.3	18.8%	11.4%	7.4%	3.1%	6.02	4.67	—
2025	22	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	30	20	99	451	102	57	16	67%	3.3	22.6%	12.6%	10.0%	3.5%	6.02	4.87	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	2.0	16.0%	12.0%	4.0%	4.0%	3.00	5.43	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	46	1	67	279	74	26	15	2%	1.5	22.9%	8.1%	14.7%	6.1%	5.35	5.53	—
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	46	1	67	279	74	26	15	2%	1.5	22.9%	8.1%	14.7%	6.1%	5.35	5.53	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	MIN	43	1	61	254	70	23	14	2%	1.4	27.6%	9.1%	18.5%	5.5%	5.58	4.95	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	MIN	3	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	2.0	16.0%	12.0%	4.0%	4.0%	3.00	5.46	—
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	MIN	3	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	2.0	16.0%	12.0%	4.0%	4.0%	3.00	5.46	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	MIN	6	0	6	26	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	3.1%	4.57	4.57	-0.0
ROS	23	MLB CTX	MIN	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	3.1%	4.58	4.58	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	74	305	79	29	16	—	—	26.0%	9.5%	16.4%	5.2%	5.28	5.45	-0.6
FULL	23	MLB A+C	MIN	—	—	12	52	79	29	16	—	—	153.1%	56.2%	96.9%	30.5%	31.68	14.04	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIN	102	0	107	452	92	50	14	0%	1.0	20.4%	11.0%	9.5%	3.0%	4.87	4.80	-0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	115	0	120	508	107	52	15	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.3%	10.6%	3.0%	4.73	4.67	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	121	0	127	537	114	55	16	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.2%	11.1%	3.0%	4.66	4.63	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	123	0	129	546	116	56	17	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.2%	11.1%	3.1%	4.65	4.66	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	123	0	129	546	115	56	17	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.3%	10.8%	3.2%	4.70	4.74	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	118	0	124	522	109	55	17	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.5%	10.3%	3.3%	4.80	4.87	-0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	111	0	116	491	101	53	17	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.8%	9.7%	3.5%	4.95	5.05	-0.7
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIN	97	0	102	431	88	47	13	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.0%	9.5%	3.0%	4.88	4.81	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	109	0	114	481	101	50	15	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.3%	10.6%	3.0%	4.74	4.68	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	115	0	121	511	108	52	15	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.2%	11.1%	3.0%	4.67	4.64	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	117	0	123	519	110	53	16	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.2%	11.1%	3.1%	4.66	4.67	-0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	117	0	123	519	110	54	16	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.3%	10.8%	3.2%	4.71	4.75	-0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	111	0	117	494	103	52	16	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.5%	10.3%	3.3%	4.81	4.88	-0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	105	0	110	464	95	50	16	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.8%	9.7%	3.5%	4.96	5.06	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		781	0	823	3474	725	364	110	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.5%	10.4%	3.2%	4.75	4.41	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	88	27	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.5%	10.4%	3.2%	4.75	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		142	85	391	1668	340	176	60	60%	2.8	20.4%	10.6%	9.8%	3.6%	4.60	4.68	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	43	200	852	174	90	30	60%	2.8	20.4%	10.6%	9.8%	3.6%	4.60	4.68	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marco Raya (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	19.7%	12.0%	3.0%	—	4.69	20.9%	10.4%	355	-0.31	—	—	—
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	88
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	86
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	84
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	84
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	84
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	84
Joan Gregorio R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.18	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.69	301	83
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	83
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	82
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	82
Corey Black R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	23	SW	4.19	22.1%	13.9%	2.2%	.310	3.56	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.56	139	82
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	82
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	81
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	81
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	80
Adam Leverett R 2022 · 5.20 FIP	23	SW	5.20	20.6%	9.3%	4.9%	.338	4.10	13.8%	4.8%	154	-1.10	3.41	401	80
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	80
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	79
Connor Johnstone R 2018 · 4.40 FIP	23	SW	4.40	15.7%	7.6%	3.0%	.272	4.51	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.11	3.78	319	79
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	115	20.8%	10.6%	1.22	4.78
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45