Marco Raya
P
St. Paul Saints
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.8 · 2028
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125115vR 106
ERA4.67
FIP4.67
K%20.6%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%7.6%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 19 | 17 | 65 | 263 | 76 | 23 | 8 | 89% | 3.4 | 21.4% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 3.05 | 4.77 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 19 | 17 | 65 | 263 | 76 | 23 | 8 | 89% | 3.4 | 28.9% | 8.7% | 20.2% | 3.0% | 3.05 | 3.42 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 63 | 257 | 65 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 2.8 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 2.2% | 4.02 | 3.83 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 63 | 257 | 65 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 2.8 | 25.3% | 8.6% | 16.7% | 2.3% | 4.02 | 3.32 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 98 | 418 | 103 | 44 | 8 | 100% | 3.9 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 4.05 | 4.85 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 98 | 418 | 103 | 44 | 8 | 100% | 3.9 | 24.6% | 10.5% | 14.1% | 1.9% | 4.05 | 3.41 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 30 | 20 | 99 | 451 | 102 | 57 | 16 | 67% | 3.3 | 19.9% | 13.3% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 6.02 | 4.52 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 30 | 20 | 99 | 451 | 102 | 57 | 16 | 67% | 3.3 | 22.6% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 6.02 | 4.87 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 28 | 1 | 45 | 187 | 43 | 15 | 10 | 4% | 1.6 | 21.2% | 7.8% | 13.4% | 6.1% | 5.20 | 5.65 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | 55 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 50 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 13.0% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 50 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 13.0% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 102 | 429 | 93 | 46 | 17 | — | — | 21.7% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 4.0% | 4.90 | 5.10 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 63 | 268 | 93 | 46 | 17 | — | — | 34.7% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 6.5% | 7.92 | 5.93 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 63 | 36 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.88 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 72 | 303 | 66 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 72 | 303 | 66 | 33 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 71 | 298 | 65 | 33 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.0% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 68 | 289 | 63 | 33 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.9% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.73 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 65 | 276 | 60 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 62 | 260 | 55 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 60 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.89 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 62 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.7% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.67 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 63 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 62 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.0% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.66 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 60 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 57 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.6% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.81 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 52 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 135 | 77 | 520 | 2193 | 471 | 254 | 67 | 57% | 3.8 | 21.5% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.74 | 4.43 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 30 | 200 | 844 | 181 | 98 | 26 | 57% | 3.9 | 21.5% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.74 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 124 | 85 | 369 | 1576 | 321 | 177 | 54 | 69% | 3.0 | 20.3% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.67 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 46 | 200 | 854 | 174 | 96 | 29 | 69% | 3.0 | 20.3% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Marco Raya (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.01 | 20.5% | 13.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.70 | 21.6% | 10.2% | 214 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.91 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 158 | -0.45 | 3.34 | 236 | 87 |
| Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.40 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .330 | 3.82 | 25.6% | 15.0% | 145 | -0.58 | 2.52 | 275 | 87 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 86 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 85 |
| Grant Ford R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 85 |
| John Matthews R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 84 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2027 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 83 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 82 |
| Dean Deetz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 22.2% | 13.7% | 2.5% | .298 | 4.84 | 29.1% | 10.7% | 68 | +0.50 | 2.64 | 281 | 82 |
| James McArthur R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.37 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 3.5% | .304 | 4.20 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 131 | -1.17 | 3.53 | 352 | 81 |
| Ben Casparius R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.20 | 20.6% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .306 | 4.44 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 274 | -0.76 | 3.49 | 364 | 81 |
| Dawson Netz R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 80 |
| Peyton Pallette R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.86 | 20.7% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .309 | 3.87 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 101 | -0.99 | 3.80 | 255 | 80 |
| Jackson Finley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.04 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 1.5% | .361 | 3.85 | 20.7% | 11.4% | 49 | -0.19 | 3.85 | 132 | 80 |
| Brandon Decker R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.90 | 18.3% | 12.6% | 1.4% | .296 | 4.11 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 33 | +0.21 | 3.90 | 117 | 80 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.58 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .263 | 4.63 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.05 | 3.57 | 389 | 79 |
| Adrian Chaidez R 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.66 | 20.1% | 15.0% | 4.3% | .281 | 4.68 | 19.4% | 3.1% | 45 | -0.98 | 4.68 | 144 | 79 |
| Danny Cody R 2027 · 6.00 FIP | 24 | SW | 6.00 | 20.5% | 15.0% | 5.0% | .369 | 6.37 | 11.4% | -6.9% | 37 | +0.37 | 6.00 | 106 | 78 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.92 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .309 | 4.78 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.86 | 3.92 | 188 | 78 |
| Ryan Vanderhei R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.97 | 16.4% | 14.1% | 0.9% | .284 | 4.55 | 18.0% | 4.2% | 93 | +0.58 | 3.56 | 130 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 68 | 21.5% | 11.6% | 1.17 | 4.79 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Trevor Cahill ('21) | 7 | 67 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 1.29 | 4.66 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |