Hunter Gregory — OGILVIE

Hunter Gregory P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%20.0%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	0	6	33	6	3	2	0%	1.0	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	6.1%	13.50	6.04	—
2021	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	0	6	33	6	3	2	0%	1.0	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	6.1%	13.50	6.93	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	10	6	32	145	40	11	3	60%	3.2	21.2%	8.7%	12.5%	2.7%	7.24	3.90	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	10	6	32	145	40	11	3	60%	3.2	27.6%	7.6%	20.0%	2.1%	7.24	2.85	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	11	60	267	67	26	6	42%	2.3	20.0%	12.1%	7.8%	2.0%	4.65	4.06	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	11	60	267	67	26	6	42%	2.3	20.0%	12.1%	7.8%	2.0%	4.65	4.06	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	11	60	267	67	26	6	42%	2.3	25.1%	9.7%	15.4%	2.2%	4.65	3.47	—
2024	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	43	2	76	341	91	38	6	5%	1.8	21.6%	12.3%	9.4%	1.8%	5.54	3.84	—
2024	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	43	2	76	341	91	38	6	5%	1.8	21.6%	12.3%	9.4%	1.8%	5.54	3.84	—
2024	25	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	43	2	76	341	91	38	6	5%	1.8	26.7%	11.1%	15.5%	1.8%	5.54	3.23	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	56	255	60	34	10	2%	1.3	19.2%	13.4%	5.7%	5.2%	5.17	6.06	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	56	255	60	34	10	2%	1.3	19.2%	13.4%	5.7%	5.2%	5.17	6.06	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	1	56	255	60	34	10	2%	1.3	23.5%	13.3%	10.2%	3.9%	5.17	5.11	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	24	0	29	146	32	10	9	0%	1.2	17.8%	7.5%	10.2%	7.4%	9.42	6.62	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	24	0	29	146	32	10	9	0%	1.2	17.8%	7.5%	10.2%	7.4%	9.42	6.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	MIN	24	0	29	146	32	10	9	0%	1.2	21.9%	6.8%	15.1%	6.2%	9.42	5.50	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	MIN	6	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.1	20.0%	12.6%	7.4%	3.4%	5.23	5.23	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	35	173	37	13	10	—	—	21.6%	7.7%	13.9%	5.7%	8.66	6.37	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIN	65	0	68	287	58	36	10	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.4%	7.8%	3.4%	5.19	5.22	-0.5
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIN	62	0	65	274	55	34	10	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.4%	7.8%	3.5%	5.22	5.29	-0.5
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIN	25	0	26	110	22	14	4	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.4%	7.8%	3.4%	5.19	5.22	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIN	34	0	36	152	31	19	5	0%	1.1	20.2%	12.4%	7.8%	3.5%	5.22	5.29	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	261	53	32	9	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.4%	7.8%	3.5%	5.21	4.88	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	104	29	0%	1.1	20.2%	12.4%	7.8%	3.5%	5.21	4.88	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		153	20	259	1187	239	135	42	13%	1.7	20.1%	11.4%	8.7%	3.5%	6.08	4.78	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	15	200	917	184	104	32	13%	1.7	20.1%	11.4%	8.7%	3.5%	6.08	4.78	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Gregory (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	20.0%	12.6%	3.4%	—	5.25	20.2%	7.8%	133	+0.02	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	88
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	87
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	86
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	85
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	84
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	84
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	83
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	83
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	83
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	83
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	83
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	83
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	82
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	82
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	82
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	82
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	82
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	82
Chris Beck R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	27	SU	4.82	17.4%	12.2%	3.0%	.305	5.28	18.1%	9.3%	41	+0.46	3.22	313	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	20.1%	12.5%	1.33	5.21
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15