Hunter Gregory

P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AATOR	43	2	76	5.54	3.23	26.7%	11.1%	—	K 21.6% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.84
2025	26	MIX2 levels	44	1	56	5.17	5.11	23.5%	13.3%	—	K 19.3% · BB 13.4% · FIP 6.05
2026	27	AAMIN	24	0	29	9.42	6.00	21.9%	6.8%	—	K 17.8% · BB 7.5% · FIP 6.62
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIN	1	0	1	5.28	5.28	19.2%	10.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBMIN	13	0	14	5.26	5.31	19.4%	10.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBMIN	18	0	19	5.33	5.42	19.3%	10.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control50Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsLuis Mateo (age 27) · Brandon Cunniff (age 28) · Tyler Walker (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.28

FIP5.28

K%19.2%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%8.7%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	0	6	33	6	3	2	0%	1.0	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	6.1%	13.50	6.04	—
2021	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	0	6	33	6	3	2	0%	1.0	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	6.1%	13.50	6.93	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	10	6	32	145	40	11	3	60%	3.2	21.2%	8.7%	12.5%	2.7%	7.24	3.90	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	10	6	32	145	40	11	3	60%	3.2	27.6%	7.6%	20.0%	2.1%	7.24	2.85	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	11	60	267	67	26	6	42%	2.3	20.0%	12.1%	7.8%	2.0%	4.65	4.06	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	11	60	267	67	26	6	42%	2.3	25.1%	9.7%	15.4%	2.2%	4.65	3.47	—
2024	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	43	2	76	341	91	38	6	5%	1.8	21.6%	12.3%	9.4%	1.8%	5.54	3.84	—
2024	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	43	2	76	341	91	38	6	5%	1.8	21.6%	12.3%	9.4%	1.8%	5.54	3.84	—
2024	25	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	43	2	76	341	91	38	6	5%	1.8	26.7%	11.1%	15.5%	1.8%	5.54	3.23	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	56	255	60	34	10	2%	1.3	19.3%	13.4%	5.9%	5.2%	5.17	6.05	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	56	255	60	34	10	2%	1.3	19.3%	13.4%	5.9%	5.2%	5.17	6.05	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	1	56	255	60	34	10	2%	1.3	23.5%	13.3%	10.2%	3.9%	5.17	5.11	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	24	0	29	146	32	10	9	0%	1.2	17.8%	7.5%	10.2%	7.4%	9.42	6.62	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	24	0	29	146	32	10	9	0%	1.2	17.8%	7.5%	10.2%	7.4%	9.42	6.62	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	24	0	29	146	32	10	9	0%	1.2	21.9%	6.8%	15.1%	6.2%	9.42	6.00	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIN	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.5%	8.7%	3.8%	5.28	5.28	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIN	42	0	45	188	36	20	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.6%	8.8%	3.9%	5.26	5.31	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIN	35	0	37	156	30	17	6	0%	1.1	19.3%	10.8%	8.5%	4.0%	5.33	5.42	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIN	13	0	14	59	11	6	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.6%	8.8%	3.9%	5.26	5.31	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIN	18	0	19	80	15	9	3	0%	1.1	19.3%	10.8%	8.5%	4.0%	5.33	5.42	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	0	33	139	27	15	6	0%	1.1	19.3%	10.7%	8.7%	4.0%	5.30	4.99	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	91	36	0%	1.1	19.3%	10.7%	8.7%	4.0%	5.30	4.99	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		153	20	259	1187	239	135	42	13%	1.7	20.1%	11.4%	8.8%	3.5%	6.08	4.77	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	15	200	917	184	104	32	13%	1.7	20.1%	11.4%	8.8%	3.5%	6.08	4.77	-1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 29 IPFIP 5.50 → 6.62 (+1.12)K% 21.9% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.92%	—	×0.810	17.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.85%	—	×1.100	7.53%
HR / BF /BF	6.16%	÷1.000	×1.200	7.40%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.50 → 6.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 44 IPFIP 4.18 → 5.42 (+1.24)K% 25.1% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.13%	—	×0.810	20.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.42%	—	×1.100	10.37%
HR / BF /BF	3.66%	÷0.885	×1.200	4.97%

Result: FIP 4.18 → 5.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 11 IPFIP 7.26 → 7.93 (+0.67)K% 18.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.75%	—	×0.860	16.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.00%	—	×0.900	22.50%
HR / BF /BF	4.69%	÷0.847	×1.100	6.09%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 7.26 → 7.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 76 IPFIP 3.22 → 3.84 (+0.62)K% 26.7% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.69%	—	×0.810	21.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.14%	—	×1.100	12.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.76%	÷1.145	×1.200	1.84%

Result: FIP 3.22 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Vancouver Canadians · 56 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.06 (+0.70)K% 25.9% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.91%	—	×0.770	19.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.150	12.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷1.253	×1.250	2.02%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 4 IPFIP 4.58 → 6.06 (+1.49)K% 15.0% → 10.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.00%	—	×0.680	10.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.005	×1.400	6.97%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 4.58 → 6.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Vancouver Canadians · 32 IPFIP 2.87 → 3.90 (+1.04)K% 27.6% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.59%	—	×0.770	21.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.59%	—	×1.150	8.72%
HR / BF /BF	2.07%	÷0.952	×1.250	2.72%

Result: FIP 2.87 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADunedin Blue Jays · 6 IPFIP 6.04 → 7.60 (+1.56)K% 18.2% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.740	13.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.180	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	6.06%	÷1.010	×1.300	7.80%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 6.04 → 7.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Gregory (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.28	19.2%	10.5%	3.8%	—	5.36	19.3%	8.7%	82	+0.08	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	86
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	85
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	85
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	84
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	82
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	81
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	81
Fernery Ozuna R 2023 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	19.0%	11.6%	4.9%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	157	81
J.J. Putz R 2005 · 4.36 FIP	28	SU	4.36	17.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.270	2.24	31.4%	25.1%	196	-2.12	1.43	563	81
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	80
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	80
Woo-Suk Go R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	17.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.359	4.16	21.5%	10.2%	64	-0.64	3.57	116	80
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	79
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	79
Ryan Middendorf R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	19.1%	9.0%	4.0%	.293	4.41	12.7%	-1.1%	34	-0.43	1.27	164	79
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	79
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	19.3%	10.6%	1.51	5.29
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*