Carson Fulmer
P
Tacoma Rainiers
Age 32
RHP
6'0" / 210 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION97 act + 61 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.58
FIP4.70
K%20.6%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP61
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 158 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2592.7
Whiff%
p4724.9%
K%
p4321.1%
xwOBA vs
p530.309
FB+2.4 (47%)
CH+0.6 (29%)
SI (21%)
CU (6%)
CT-0.7 (18%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 23 | 93 | 26 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 2.6 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 2.4% | 1.96 | 4.04 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 23 | 93 | 26 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 2.6 | 28.0% | 9.7% | 18.3% | 2.2% | 1.96 | 3.14 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 21 | 115 | 511 | 114 | 63 | 10 | 72% | 4.0 | 18.6% | 13.4% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 5.02 | 4.64 | +1.0 |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 21 | 115 | 511 | 114 | 63 | 10 | 72% | 4.0 | 22.3% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 2.0% | 5.02 | 3.89 | +2.0 |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 30 | 149 | 671 | 115 | 78 | 22 | 94% | 4.7 | 15.4% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 5.48 | 4.89 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 30 | 149 | 671 | 115 | 78 | 22 | 94% | 4.7 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 5.48 | 5.04 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 17 | 100 | 468 | 91 | 65 | 18 | 50% | 2.9 | 17.9% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 6.21 | 5.10 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 17 | 100 | 468 | 91 | 65 | 18 | 50% | 2.9 | 19.4% | 13.9% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 6.21 | 5.57 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 2 | 61 | 285 | 76 | 41 | 7 | 5% | 1.4 | 24.5% | 14.8% | 9.8% | 2.2% | 5.43 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 2 | 61 | 285 | 76 | 41 | 7 | 5% | 1.4 | 26.7% | 14.4% | 12.3% | 2.5% | 5.43 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 10 | 0 | 10 | 46 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 2.2% | 4.35 | 3.65 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 10 | 0 | 10 | 46 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 2.2% | 4.35 | 3.68 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 2 | 67 | 303 | 75 | 34 | 7 | 4% | 1.2 | 22.7% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 2.2% | 5.40 | 3.84 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 2 | 67 | 303 | 75 | 34 | 7 | 4% | 1.2 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 2.3% | 5.40 | 3.75 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 49 | 1 | 57 | 242 | 62 | 33 | 4 | 2% | 1.2 | 22.5% | 14.3% | 8.2% | 1.8% | 2.86 | 4.01 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 49 | 1 | 57 | 242 | 62 | 33 | 4 | 2% | 1.2 | 25.6% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 1.7% | 2.86 | 3.58 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 13 | 55 | 245 | 46 | 33 | 7 | 81% | 3.4 | 15.4% | 15.6% | -0.2% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 13 | 55 | 245 | 46 | 33 | 7 | 81% | 3.4 | 18.8% | 13.5% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 9 | 90 | 394 | 83 | 38 | 11 | 24% | 2.4 | 21.4% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.12 | 4.15 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 9 | 90 | 394 | 83 | 38 | 11 | 24% | 2.4 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.12 | 4.11 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 6 | 84 | 361 | 76 | 32 | 10 | 17% | 2.4 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.26 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 6 | 84 | 361 | 76 | 32 | 10 | 17% | 2.4 | 21.1% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 3.98 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 38 | 10 | 97 | 434 | 80 | 43 | 19 | 26% | 2.6 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.12 | 5.69 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | PIT | 58 | 0 | 61 | 256 | 53 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | PIT | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 158 | 690 | 133 | 68 | 27 | — | — | 19.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 5.53 | 5.31 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 6 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 20.6% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.32 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 53 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 46 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 48 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 40 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 5.10 | 5.29 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 43 | 0 | 46 | 192 | 34 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 11.2% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 5.41 | 5.62 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.98 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 5.10 | 5.29 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 11.2% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 5.41 | 5.62 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 180 | 24 | 312 | 1389 | 276 | 158 | 49 | 13% | 1.7 | 19.9% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 5.36 | 4.78 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 115 | 15 | 200 | 889 | 177 | 101 | 31 | 13% | 1.7 | 19.9% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 5.36 | 4.78 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 391 | 120 | 907 | 4053 | 769 | 498 | 118 | 31% | 2.3 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 5.03 | 4.65 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 86 | 26 | 200 | 893 | 169 | 110 | 26 | 31% | 2.3 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 5.03 | 4.65 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Fulmer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 20.6% | 9.7% | 3.2% | — | 5.28 | 18.9% | 8.3% | 152 | +0.58 | — | — | — |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 73 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 69 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.07 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 365 | 68 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 68 |
| Collin McHugh R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.07 | 25.9% | 9.5% | 3.6% | .259 | 2.10 | 28.8% | 24.3% | 133 | -1.97 | 1.79 | 806 | 68 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.60 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.59 | 18.4% | 13.7% | 42 | -0.01 | 2.60 | 283 | 67 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 67 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2029 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 67 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 66 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | .333 | 3.80 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | -1.18 | 3.80 | 284 | 66 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 65 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 65 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 64 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 64 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 64 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.00 | 18.4% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 306 | 64 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .420 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 203 | 64 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.91 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 536 | 64 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 63 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 53 | 19.4% | 10.4% | 1.38 | 4.94 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |