Carson Fulmer — OGILVIE

Carson Fulmer P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 32 RHP 6'0" / 210 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.53

FIP4.64

K%20.5%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP55

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p4724.9%

p4321.1%

xwOBA vs

p530.309

FB+2.4 (47%)

CH+0.6 (29%)

SI (21%)

CU (6%)

CT-0.7 (18%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	23	93	26	9	2	100%	2.6	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	2.5%	1.96	4.15	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	23	93	26	9	2	100%	2.6	28.0%	9.7%	18.3%	2.2%	1.96	3.14	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	21	115	511	114	63	10	72%	4.0	18.6%	13.4%	5.3%	2.4%	5.02	4.54	+0.5
2016	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	21	115	511	114	63	10	72%	4.0	22.3%	12.3%	10.0%	2.0%	5.02	3.89	+1.4
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	30	149	671	115	78	22	94%	4.7	15.4%	12.1%	3.3%	3.2%	5.48	5.06	-0.3
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	30	149	671	115	78	22	94%	4.7	17.1%	11.6%	5.5%	3.3%	5.48	5.04	-0.2
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	17	100	468	91	65	18	50%	2.9	17.9%	14.3%	3.5%	3.5%	6.21	5.31	-0.5
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	17	100	468	91	65	18	50%	2.9	19.4%	13.9%	5.6%	3.8%	6.21	5.57	-0.8
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	61	285	76	41	7	5%	1.4	24.5%	14.8%	9.8%	2.4%	5.43	4.19	+0.3
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	2	61	285	76	41	7	5%	1.4	26.7%	14.4%	12.3%	2.5%	5.43	4.11	+0.3
2020	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	10	0	10	46	11	5	1	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.9%	13.0%	2.2%	4.35	3.65	+0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	10	0	10	46	11	5	1	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.9%	13.0%	2.2%	4.35	3.68	+0.1
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	2	67	303	75	34	7	4%	1.2	22.7%	11.6%	11.2%	2.3%	5.40	3.88	+0.5
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	2	67	303	75	34	7	4%	1.2	24.8%	11.2%	13.5%	2.3%	5.40	3.75	+0.6
2022	28	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	49	1	57	242	62	33	4	2%	1.2	22.5%	14.3%	8.2%	1.8%	2.86	4.01	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Dodgers	49	1	57	242	62	33	4	2%	1.2	25.6%	13.6%	12.0%	1.7%	2.86	3.58	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	13	55	245	46	33	7	81%	3.4	14.5%	13.3%	1.2%	2.9%	4.58	5.16	-0.2
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	13	55	245	46	33	7	81%	3.4	14.5%	13.3%	1.2%	2.9%	4.58	5.16	-0.2
2023	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	13	55	245	46	33	7	81%	3.4	18.8%	13.5%	5.3%	2.9%	4.58	4.88	+0.0
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	9	90	394	83	38	11	24%	2.4	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	2.8%	4.12	4.06	+0.5
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	9	90	394	83	38	11	24%	2.4	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	2.8%	4.12	4.06	+0.5
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	9	90	394	83	38	11	24%	2.4	21.1%	9.6%	11.4%	2.8%	4.12	4.11	+0.5
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	6	84	361	76	32	10	17%	2.4	18.7%	8.3%	10.4%	2.9%	4.63	4.16	+0.4
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	6	84	361	76	32	10	17%	2.4	18.7%	8.3%	10.4%	2.9%	4.63	4.16	+0.4
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	6	84	361	76	32	10	17%	2.4	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	2.8%	4.63	3.98	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			127	24	257	1154	231	133	40	19%	2.0	20.0%	11.5%	8.5%	3.5%	5.44	4.88	-1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	32	18	117	531	90	48	21	56%	3.6	14.1%	8.1%	5.9%	4.4%	5.32	5.33	—
YTD	32	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	32	18	117	531	90	48	21	56%	3.6	14.1%	8.1%	5.9%	4.4%	5.32	5.33	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	AAA RAW	SEA	32	18	117	531	90	48	21	56%	3.6	16.9%	9.0%	7.9%	4.0%	5.32	4.98	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	SEA	48	0	51	214	42	21	7	0%	1.1	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.4%	4.76	4.92	-0.2
2028	34	MLB MLE	SEA	44	0	46	194	36	20	7	0%	1.0	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	3.7%	5.04	5.22	-0.3
2029	35	MLB MLE	SEA	39	0	41	174	31	19	7	0%	1.1	17.8%	10.9%	6.9%	4.0%	5.35	5.56	-0.5
2027	33	MLB CTX	SEA	18	0	19	80	16	8	3	0%	1.1	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.4%	4.76	4.92	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	SEA	14	0	15	63	12	7	2	0%	1.1	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	3.7%	5.04	5.22	-0.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	SEA	10	0	11	46	8	5	2	0%	1.1	17.8%	10.9%	6.9%	4.0%	5.35	5.56	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		170	24	302	1344	267	152	47	14%	1.8	19.9%	11.3%	8.5%	3.5%	5.37	4.78	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		113	16	200	891	177	101	31	14%	1.8	19.9%	11.3%	8.5%	3.5%	5.37	4.78	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		385	128	927	4150	768	487	123	33%	2.4	18.5%	11.7%	6.8%	3.0%	4.95	4.65	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	28	200	895	166	105	27	33%	2.4	18.5%	11.7%	6.8%	3.0%	4.95	4.65	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Fulmer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	20.5%	9.4%	3.1%	—	5.21	18.8%	8.5%	138	+0.57	—	—	—
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	71
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	67
Miguel Socolovich R 2018 · 3.55 FIP	32	SU	3.55	20.8%	5.6%	2.7%	.338	3.55	18.4%	13.7%	42	+0.00	2.65	283	67
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	33	SW	4.95	18.3%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.81	11.4%	6.4%	27	-1.14	3.80	284	66
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	65
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	65
Casey Coleman R 2019 · 5.06 FIP	32	SW	5.06	18.4%	9.0%	4.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	306	65
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	65
Hector Velázquez R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	32	SU	3.81	19.2%	8.3%	2.3%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.75	536	64
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	64
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	64
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	64
Sam LeCure R 2016 · 4.17 FIP	32	SW	4.17	16.6%	6.5%	3.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	171	63
Collin McHugh R 2019 · 4.25 FIP	32	SW	4.25	25.9%	9.5%	3.9%	.259	2.09	28.8%	24.3%	133	-2.16	1.77	806	63
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	14.0%	6.6%	4.2%	.268	5.28	17.5%	9.7%	166	+0.25	3.97	567	62
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	62
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	62
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	62
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	62
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	19.3%	10.0%	1.35	4.89
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63