Carson Fulmer

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 33 RHP 6'0" / 210 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MIX2 levels	38	9	90	4.12	4.11	21.1%	9.6%	0.5	K 21.4% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.06
2025	31	MIX2 levels	35	6	84	4.63	3.98	21.1%	8.9%	0.6	K 19.1% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.13
2026	32	AAASEA	34	20	128	5.15	5.01	17.2%	9.0%	—	K 14.8% · BB 8.1% · FIP 5.18
2027PROJ	33	MLBSEA	9	0	9	4.82	5.05	17.8%	8.7%	-0.1
2028PROJ10% MLB	34	MLBSEA	4	0	4	5.14	5.36	16.9%	9.2%	-0.0
2029PROJ5% MLB	35	MLBSEA	2	0	2	5.47	5.69	15.9%	9.7%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs53

K%43

FB Velo25

CompsChris Jakubauskas (age 32) · Ivan Maldonado (age 35) · Rudy Gonzalez (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA4.82

FIP5.05

K%17.8%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%9.1%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p4724.9%

p4321.1%

xwOBA vs

p530.309

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	23	93	26	9	2	100%	2.6	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	2.5%	1.96	4.15	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	23	93	26	9	2	100%	2.6	28.0%	9.7%	18.3%	2.2%	1.96	3.14	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	21	115	511	114	63	10	72%	4.0	18.6%	13.4%	5.3%	2.4%	5.02	4.54	+1.2
2016	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	21	115	511	114	63	10	72%	4.0	22.3%	12.3%	10.0%	2.0%	5.02	3.89	+2.1
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	30	149	671	115	78	22	94%	4.7	15.4%	12.1%	3.3%	3.2%	5.48	5.06	+0.6
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	30	149	671	115	78	22	94%	4.7	17.1%	11.6%	5.5%	3.3%	5.48	5.04	+0.6
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	17	100	468	91	65	18	50%	2.9	17.9%	14.3%	3.5%	3.5%	6.21	5.31	+0.1
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	17	100	468	91	65	18	50%	2.9	19.4%	13.9%	5.6%	3.8%	6.21	5.57	-0.2
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	61	285	76	41	7	5%	1.4	24.5%	14.8%	9.8%	2.4%	5.43	4.19	+0.3
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	2	61	285	76	41	7	5%	1.4	26.7%	14.4%	12.3%	2.5%	5.43	4.11	+0.3
2020	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	10	0	10	46	11	5	1	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.9%	13.0%	2.2%	4.35	3.65	+0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	10	0	10	46	11	5	1	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.9%	13.0%	2.2%	4.35	3.68	+0.1
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	2	67	303	75	34	7	4%	1.2	22.7%	11.6%	11.2%	2.3%	5.40	3.88	+0.5
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	2	67	303	75	34	7	4%	1.2	24.8%	11.2%	13.5%	2.3%	5.40	3.75	+0.6
2022	28	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	49	1	57	242	62	33	4	2%	1.2	22.5%	14.3%	8.2%	1.8%	2.86	4.01	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Dodgers	49	1	57	242	62	33	4	2%	1.2	25.6%	13.6%	12.0%	1.7%	2.86	3.58	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	13	55	245	46	33	7	81%	3.4	15.0%	13.3%	1.7%	2.9%	4.58	5.11	+0.2
2023	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	13	55	245	46	33	7	81%	3.4	18.8%	13.5%	5.3%	2.9%	4.58	4.88	+0.3
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	9	90	394	83	38	11	24%	2.4	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	2.8%	4.12	4.06	+0.5
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	9	90	394	83	38	11	24%	2.4	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	2.8%	4.12	4.06	+0.5
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	9	90	394	83	38	11	24%	2.4	21.1%	9.6%	11.4%	2.8%	4.12	4.11	+0.5
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	6	84	361	76	32	10	17%	2.4	19.1%	8.3%	10.8%	2.9%	4.63	4.13	+0.4
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	6	84	361	76	32	10	17%	2.4	19.1%	8.3%	10.8%	2.9%	4.63	4.13	+0.4
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	6	84	361	76	32	10	17%	2.4	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	2.8%	4.63	3.98	+0.6
2026	32	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	34	20	128	577	99	52	22	59%	3.8	14.8%	8.1%	6.6%	4.2%	5.15	5.18	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	34	20	128	577	99	52	22	59%	3.8	14.8%	8.1%	6.6%	4.2%	5.15	5.18	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	34	20	128	577	99	52	22	59%	3.8	17.2%	9.0%	8.1%	3.8%	5.15	5.01	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			127	24	257	1154	231	133	40	19%	2.0	20.0%	11.5%	8.5%	3.5%	5.44	4.88	-1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	SEA	9	0	9	38	7	3	1	0%	1.0	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	3.6%	4.82	5.05	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	SEA	42	0	44	187	31	17	7	0%	1.1	16.9%	9.2%	7.7%	3.9%	5.14	5.36	-0.4
2029	35	MLB MLE	SEA	32	0	33	140	22	14	6	0%	1.0	15.9%	9.7%	6.2%	4.2%	5.47	5.69	-0.4
2028	34	MLB CTX	SEA	4	0	4	17	3	2	1	0%	1.0	16.9%	9.2%	7.7%	3.9%	5.14	5.36	-0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	SEA	2	0	2	8	1	1	0	0%	1.0	15.9%	9.7%	6.2%	4.2%	5.47	5.69	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		133	24	263	1179	235	135	41	18%	2.0	19.9%	11.5%	8.5%	3.5%	5.43	4.78	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		101	18	200	898	179	103	31	18%	2.0	19.9%	11.5%	8.5%	3.5%	5.43	4.78	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		387	130	938	4196	782	491	124	34%	2.4	18.6%	11.7%	6.9%	3.0%	4.93	4.63	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	28	200	895	167	105	26	34%	2.4	18.6%	11.7%	6.9%	3.0%	4.93	4.63	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 128 IPFIP 4.89 → 5.18 (+0.30)K% 17.2% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.16%	—	×0.860	14.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.01%	—	×0.900	8.11%
HR / BF /BF	3.81%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.19%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.89 → 5.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 54 IPFIP 3.60 → 3.86 (+0.27)K% 21.0% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.01%	—	×0.860	18.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×0.900	7.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.10%	÷0.989	×1.100	2.34%

Result: FIP 3.60 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 41 IPFIP 4.95 → 5.11 (+0.16)K% 17.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.46%	—	×0.860	15.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.81%	—	×0.900	13.33%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷1.003	×1.100	2.90%

Result: FIP 4.95 → 5.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 57 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.01 (+0.44)K% 25.6% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.62%	—	×0.880	22.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.050	14.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.65%	÷0.997	×1.100	1.82%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALouisville Bats · 41 IPFIP 3.39 → 3.75 (+0.36)K% 27.3% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.880	24.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.23%	—	×1.050	11.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷1.088	×1.100	2.16%

Result: FIP 3.39 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAACharlotte Knights · 34 IPFIP 2.74 → 3.10 (+0.36)K% 33.6% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.55%	—	×0.880	29.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.82%	—	×1.050	14.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷1.212	×1.100	1.19%

Result: FIP 2.74 → 3.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAACharlotte Knights · 68 IPFIP 4.89 → 4.88 (−0.01)K% 20.4% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.39%	—	×0.880	17.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.49%	—	×1.050	14.16%
HR / BF /BF	3.29%	÷1.319	×1.100	2.74%

Result: FIP 4.89 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAACharlotte Knights · 126 IPFIP 4.86 → 5.02 (+0.17)K% 16.8% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.84%	—	×0.880	14.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.40%	—	×1.050	11.97%
HR / BF /BF	3.16%	÷1.150	×1.100	3.02%

Result: FIP 4.86 → 5.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Fulmer (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	5.50	16.4%	7.0%	77	+0.45	—	—	—
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	76
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	73
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	70
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	69
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	69
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	67
Mike Fyhrie R 2002 · 3.86 FIP	32	SW	3.86	13.7%	9.0%	1.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	173	66
Angel Castro R 2016 · 5.42 FIP	33	SW	5.42	12.3%	9.1%	4.0%	.304	3.51	14.5%	7.1%	139	-1.91	3.51	292	66
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	66
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	65
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	64
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	64
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	64
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	63
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	2.16	306	63
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2017 · 5.96 FIP	32	SW	5.96	10.0%	13.0%	3.8%	.316	4.50	21.3%	16.2%	15	-1.46	3.39	212	63
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	59
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	59
Fernando Villalobos R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	10.6%	8.0%	2.7%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	152	59
Joe Roa R 2004 · 4.36 FIP	32	SU	4.36	14.8%	7.5%	2.8%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	258	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	44	19.0%	10.9%	1.39	5.31
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*