Juan Bello
P
Asheville Tourists
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 173 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.9 · 2029
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 115
ERA5.09
FIP5.09
K%17.1%
BB%12.7%
K-BB%4.4%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cubs Red | 9 | 8 | 31 | 126 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 89% | 3.5 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | 4.02 | 3.83 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cubs Red | 9 | 8 | 31 | 126 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 89% | 3.5 | 27.0% | 5.6% | 21.4% | 2.4% | 4.02 | 2.84 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 4 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 75% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 19.0% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 10.38 | 3.50 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 4 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 75% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 19.0% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 10.38 | 3.56 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 22 | 22 | 90 | 363 | 91 | 28 | 5 | 100% | 4.1 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 3.21 | 3.89 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 22 | 22 | 90 | 363 | 91 | 28 | 5 | 100% | 4.1 | 25.1% | 7.7% | 17.4% | 1.4% | 3.21 | 2.73 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 17 | 9 | 66 | 287 | 66 | 32 | 5 | 53% | 3.9 | 17.7% | 12.8% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 3.70 | 3.98 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 17 | 9 | 66 | 287 | 66 | 32 | 5 | 53% | 3.9 | 23.0% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 1.7% | 3.70 | 3.54 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 52 | 222 | 38 | 28 | 6 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.1% | 12.7% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 5.09 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 54 | 230 | 43 | 27 | 6 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.5% | 11.6% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 4.90 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 46 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 4.75 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 57 | 239 | 48 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 4.64 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 57 | 239 | 49 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.58 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 48 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.3% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 21 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.5% | 11.6% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 4.94 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 32 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.79 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 39 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 42 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 43 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.3% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 37 | 37 | 212 | 894 | 178 | 96 | 24 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.71 | 4.29 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 168 | 91 | 23 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.71 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 52 | 42 | 191 | 797 | 146 | 83 | 15 | 81% | 3.7 | 18.4% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 1.9% | 3.68 | 3.90 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 44 | 200 | 835 | 153 | 86 | 16 | 81% | 3.7 | 18.4% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 1.9% | 3.68 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Bello (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.09 | 17.1% | 12.7% | 2.6% | — | 4.69 | 19.3% | 8.3% | 167 | -0.40 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 89 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 89 |
| Ryan Harvey R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.98 | 16.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .294 | 3.81 | 16.9% | 3.9% | 66 | -1.17 | 3.56 | 112 | 88 |
| Nick Garcia R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .274 | 4.88 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 265 | +0.57 | 4.27 | 384 | 87 |
| Jeremy Lee R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.8% | 11.5% | 1.7% | .318 | 5.28 | 11.2% | -0.5% | 46 | +1.22 | 4.06 | 125 | 87 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 86 |
| Jared Lyons R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.1% | 15.3% | 1.9% | .345 | 3.85 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 164 | -0.55 | 3.27 | 218 | 85 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 85 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 84 |
| TJ Nichols R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.96 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .310 | 5.17 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 174 | +1.21 | 3.96 | 245 | 84 |
| Brandon Decker R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.90 | 18.3% | 12.6% | 1.4% | .296 | 4.11 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 33 | +0.21 | 3.90 | 117 | 84 |
| Nick Hull R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.25 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .251 | 4.81 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.56 | 3.93 | 268 | 84 |
| Braden Webb R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.32 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.76 | 17.9% | 1.8% | 172 | +0.44 | 4.32 | 308 | 84 |
| Luke Gabrysh R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.59 | 13.8% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .271 | 5.55 | 21.8% | 8.1% | 59 | +0.96 | 4.59 | 138 | 84 |
| Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.22 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .293 | 5.23 | 15.4% | 6.7% | 157 | +1.01 | 3.46 | 246 | 83 |
| Ike Buxton R 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 83 |
| Mac Sceroler R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.46 | 17.6% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .318 | 4.22 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 200 | -0.24 | 3.81 | 275 | 83 |
| Khristian Curtis R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.39 | 18.8% | 14.4% | 3.7% | .275 | 4.58 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 183 | -0.81 | 4.52 | 258 | 83 |
| Chris McElvain R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.79 | 15.8% | 11.6% | 2.9% | .275 | 5.18 | 16.0% | 4.7% | 191 | +0.39 | 4.01 | 287 | 83 |
| Jacob Meador R 2027 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 55 | 19.3% | 11.1% | 1.02 | 4.75 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |