Juan Bello

P Asheville Tourists

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 173 lbs A+ peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ACHC	22	22	90	3.21	2.73	25.1%	7.7%	—	K 18.6% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.77
2025	21	A+HOU	17	9	66	3.70	3.54	23.0%	11.1%	—	K 17.7% · BB 12.8% · FIP 4.15
2027PROJ	23	MLBHOU	—	—	0	5.17	5.17	17.4%	12.7%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBHOU	5	5	27	5.00	4.94	18.6%	11.7%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBHOU	5	5	30	4.86	4.80	19.3%	11.1%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command40

CompsRyan Atkinson (age 23) · Jeremy Lee (age 22) · Tanner Hall (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%17.4%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%4.7%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	9	8	31	126	34	7	3	89%	3.5	18.3%	6.9%	11.4%	2.9%	4.02	4.02	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	9	8	31	126	34	7	3	89%	3.5	27.0%	5.6%	21.4%	2.4%	4.02	2.84	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	4	3	4	21	5	4	0	75%	1.1	23.8%	19.0%	4.8%	0.0%	10.38	3.50	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	4	3	4	21	5	4	0	75%	1.1	23.8%	19.0%	4.8%	0.0%	10.38	3.56	—
2024	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	22	90	363	91	28	5	100%	4.1	18.6%	9.1%	9.4%	2.0%	3.21	3.77	—
2024	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	22	90	363	91	28	5	100%	4.1	18.6%	9.1%	9.4%	2.0%	3.21	3.77	—
2024	20	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	22	90	363	91	28	5	100%	4.1	25.1%	7.7%	17.4%	1.4%	3.21	2.73	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	17	9	66	287	66	32	5	53%	3.9	17.7%	12.8%	4.9%	1.7%	3.70	4.15	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	17	9	66	287	66	32	5	53%	3.9	17.7%	12.8%	4.9%	1.7%	3.70	4.15	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	17	9	66	287	66	32	5	53%	3.9	23.0%	11.1%	11.8%	1.7%	3.70	3.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.4%	12.7%	4.7%	2.8%	5.17	5.17	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	62	260	48	31	7	100%	5.6	18.6%	11.7%	6.9%	2.8%	5.00	4.94	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	8	8	45	191	37	21	5	100%	5.7	19.3%	11.1%	8.2%	2.8%	4.86	4.80	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	7	7	44	187	37	21	5	100%	6.3	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	2.8%	4.79	4.76	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	7	7	43	181	36	20	5	100%	6.1	19.8%	11.0%	8.8%	2.9%	4.78	4.78	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	5	5	27	114	21	13	3	100%	5.4	18.6%	11.7%	6.9%	2.8%	5.00	4.94	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	5	5	30	127	24	14	4	100%	6.0	19.3%	11.1%	8.2%	2.8%	4.86	4.80	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	35	148	29	16	4	100%	5.8	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	2.8%	4.79	4.76	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	37	156	31	17	4	100%	6.2	19.8%	11.0%	8.8%	2.9%	4.78	4.78	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		22	22	128	542	105	61	15	100%	5.8	19.4%	11.2%	8.2%	2.8%	4.85	4.43	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	164	95	23	100%	5.9	19.4%	11.2%	8.2%	2.8%	4.85	4.43	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		52	42	191	797	146	83	16	81%	3.7	18.4%	10.4%	8.0%	2.0%	3.68	3.94	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	44	200	835	153	86	16	81%	3.7	18.4%	10.4%	8.0%	2.0%	3.68	3.94	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 A+Asheville Tourists · 66 IPFIP 3.53 → 4.15 (+0.62)K% 23.0% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.00%	—	×0.770	17.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.15%	—	×1.150	12.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷1.297	×1.250	1.68%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 159).

Result: FIP 3.53 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 90 IPFIP 2.72 → 3.77 (+1.05)K% 25.1% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.07%	—	×0.740	18.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.71%	—	×1.180	9.10%
HR / BF /BF	1.38%	÷0.908	×1.300	1.97%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.72 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Cubs · 4 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.75 (+1.25)K% 23.8% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.680	16.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.05%	—	×1.250	23.81%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Cubs Red · 31 IPFIP 2.83 → 4.02 (+1.18)K% 27.0% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.98%	—	×0.680	18.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.250	6.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.154	×1.400	2.89%

Result: FIP 2.83 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Bello (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	17.4%	12.7%	2.8%	—	4.85	19.1%	7.8%	151	-0.32	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	89
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	88
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	87
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	87
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	85
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	85
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	85
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.83	17.8%	6.5%	200	+0.57	4.26	292	85
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	84
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	84
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	84
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	84
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	83
Sam Whiting R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	14.6%	12.3%	1.3%	.320	4.88	17.1%	3.5%	105	+0.76	4.12	177	83
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	82
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	82
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	82
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	82
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	81
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	51	18.8%	11.6%	1.10	4.94
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*