Juan Bello — OGILVIE

Juan Bello P Asheville Tourists

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 173 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 115

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%17.1%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%4.4%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	9	8	31	126	34	7	3	89%	3.5	18.3%	6.9%	11.4%	2.5%	4.02	3.83	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	9	8	31	126	34	7	3	89%	3.5	27.0%	5.6%	21.4%	2.4%	4.02	2.84	—
2023	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	4	3	4	21	5	4	0	75%	1.1	23.8%	19.0%	4.8%	0.0%	10.38	3.50	—
2023	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	4	3	4	21	5	4	0	75%	1.1	23.8%	19.0%	4.8%	0.0%	10.38	3.56	—
2024	20	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	22	90	363	91	28	5	100%	4.1	18.6%	9.1%	9.4%	2.2%	3.21	3.89	—
2024	20	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	22	90	363	91	28	5	100%	4.1	25.1%	7.7%	17.4%	1.4%	3.21	2.73	—
2025	21	A+	Asheville Tourists	17	9	66	287	66	32	5	53%	3.9	17.7%	12.8%	4.9%	1.4%	3.70	3.98	—
2025	21	A+	Asheville Tourists	17	9	66	287	66	32	5	53%	3.9	23.0%	11.1%	11.8%	1.7%	3.70	3.54	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	HOU	10	10	52	222	38	28	6	100%	5.2	17.1%	12.7%	4.4%	2.6%	5.09	5.09	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	HOU	10	10	54	230	43	27	6	100%	5.5	18.5%	11.6%	6.9%	2.6%	4.90	4.83	-0.2
2028	24	MLB	HOU	10	10	56	236	46	26	6	100%	5.6	19.4%	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	4.75	4.67	-0.1
2029	25	MLB	HOU	10	10	57	239	48	25	6	100%	5.7	20.0%	10.6%	9.4%	2.6%	4.64	4.57	-0.0
2030	26	MLB	HOU	9	9	57	239	49	25	6	100%	6.3	20.3%	10.5%	9.8%	2.6%	4.58	4.55	0.0
2031	27	MLB	HOU	9	9	56	236	48	25	6	100%	6.2	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	2.7%	4.58	4.59	-0.0
2032	28	MLB	HOU	9	9	54	228	46	25	6	100%	6.0	20.2%	10.8%	9.4%	2.8%	4.63	4.67	-0.1
2033	29	MLB	HOU	9	9	52	218	43	24	6	100%	5.7	19.9%	11.0%	8.9%	2.9%	4.73	4.80	-0.2
2027	23	MLB	HOU	5	5	27	114	21	13	3	100%	5.4	18.5%	11.6%	6.9%	2.7%	4.94	4.87	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	HOU	7	7	39	165	32	18	4	100%	5.6	19.4%	11.0%	8.5%	2.7%	4.79	4.71	-0.1
2029	25	MLB	HOU	8	8	46	194	39	21	5	100%	5.8	20.0%	10.6%	9.4%	2.7%	4.68	4.61	-0.0
2030	26	MLB	HOU	8	8	49	207	42	22	6	100%	6.1	20.3%	10.5%	9.8%	2.7%	4.62	4.59	-0.0
2031	27	MLB	HOU	8	8	50	211	43	22	6	100%	6.2	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	2.8%	4.62	4.63	-0.0
2032	28	MLB	HOU	8	8	50	211	43	23	6	100%	6.2	20.2%	10.8%	9.4%	2.9%	4.68	4.72	-0.1
2033	29	MLB	HOU	8	8	48	203	40	22	6	100%	6.0	19.9%	11.0%	8.9%	3.0%	4.78	4.85	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			53	53	310	1308	260	141	37	100%	5.8	19.9%	10.8%	9.1%	2.8%	4.71	4.32	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	168	91	24	100%	5.9	19.9%	10.8%	9.1%	2.8%	4.71	4.32	+2.5
Career	—			52	42	191	797	146	83	15	81%	3.7	18.4%	10.4%	8.0%	1.9%	3.68	3.90	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—			54	44	200	835	153	86	16	81%	3.7	18.4%	10.4%	8.0%	1.9%	3.68	3.90	+3.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Bello (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	17.1%	12.7%	2.6%	—	4.69	19.3%	8.3%	167	-0.40	—	—	—
Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	18.8%	11.2%	3.0%	.295	5.39	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.83	4.56	137	89
Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.53	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.05	4.07	338	89
Ryan Harvey R 2026 · 4.98 FIP	22	SP	4.98	16.7%	13.1%	3.0%	.294	3.81	16.9%	3.9%	66	-1.17	3.56	112	88
Nick Garcia R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	18.3%	12.3%	2.2%	.274	4.88	17.3%	5.9%	265	+0.57	4.27	384	87
Jeremy Lee R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP-	4.06	16.8%	11.5%	1.7%	.318	5.28	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.22	4.06	125	87
Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP-	4.92	18.6%	15.7%	2.5%	.340	4.59	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.33	4.45	194	86
Jared Lyons R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP-	4.40	20.1%	15.3%	1.9%	.345	3.85	19.6%	10.9%	164	-0.55	3.27	218	85
Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP-	4.45	21.5%	12.1%	3.0%	.275	4.09	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.36	3.05	181	85
Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	18.4%	11.5%	2.4%	.306	4.68	16.2%	5.7%	316	+0.34	3.90	371	84
TJ Nichols R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	22	SP-	3.96	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.310	5.17	21.9%	14.5%	174	+1.21	3.96	245	84
Brandon Decker R 2027 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	18.3%	12.6%	1.4%	.296	4.11	21.5%	10.8%	33	+0.21	3.90	117	84
Nick Hull R 2027 · 4.25 FIP	23	SP-	4.25	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.81	18.9%	7.5%	176	+0.56	3.93	268	84
Braden Webb R 2026 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP-	4.32	18.0%	12.5%	2.1%	.276	4.76	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.44	4.32	308	84
Luke Gabrysh R 2026 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP	4.59	13.8%	11.8%	2.1%	.271	5.55	21.8%	8.1%	59	+0.96	4.59	138	84
Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP-	4.22	17.8%	10.2%	2.4%	.293	5.23	15.4%	6.7%	157	+1.01	3.46	246	83
Ike Buxton R 2027 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP-	4.93	16.8%	15.2%	2.4%	.241	4.68	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.25	4.52	196	83
Mac Sceroler R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.22	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.24	3.81	275	83
Khristian Curtis R 2026 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	18.8%	14.4%	3.7%	.275	4.58	21.4%	9.3%	183	-0.81	4.52	258	83
Chris McElvain R 2026 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	15.8%	11.6%	2.9%	.275	5.18	16.0%	4.7%	191	+0.39	4.01	287	83
Jacob Meador R 2027 · 5.28 FIP	23	SP-	5.28	15.6%	14.0%	3.1%	.301	6.83	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.55	5.28	139	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	55	19.5%	11.1%	1.04	4.73
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	7	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40