Juan Bello — OGILVIE

Juan Bello P Asheville Tourists

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 173 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%17.1%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%4.6%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	9	8	31	126	34	7	3	89%	3.5	18.3%	6.9%	11.4%	2.9%	4.02	4.02	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	9	8	31	126	34	7	3	89%	3.5	27.0%	5.6%	21.4%	2.4%	4.02	2.84	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	4	3	4	21	5	4	0	75%	1.1	23.8%	19.0%	4.8%	0.0%	10.38	3.50	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	4	3	4	21	5	4	0	75%	1.1	23.8%	19.0%	4.8%	0.0%	10.38	3.50	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	4	3	4	21	5	4	0	75%	1.1	23.8%	19.0%	4.8%	0.0%	10.38	3.56	—
2024	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	22	90	363	91	28	5	100%	4.1	18.6%	9.1%	9.4%	2.0%	3.21	3.77	—
2024	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	22	90	363	91	28	5	100%	4.1	18.6%	9.1%	9.4%	2.0%	3.21	3.77	—
2024	20	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	22	90	363	91	28	5	100%	4.1	25.1%	7.7%	17.4%	1.4%	3.21	2.73	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	17	9	66	287	66	32	5	53%	3.9	17.7%	12.8%	4.9%	1.7%	3.70	4.15	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	17	9	66	287	66	32	5	53%	3.9	17.7%	12.8%	4.9%	1.7%	3.70	4.15	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	17	9	66	287	66	32	5	53%	3.9	23.0%	11.1%	11.8%	1.7%	3.70	3.54	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	HOU	1	1	4	17	3	2	0	100%	4.0	17.1%	12.6%	4.6%	2.7%	5.10	5.10	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	84	353	65	40	9	100%	5.2	18.4%	11.4%	7.0%	2.7%	4.90	4.83	+0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	86	362	70	39	10	100%	5.7	19.2%	10.7%	8.5%	2.7%	4.75	4.67	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	87	367	72	38	10	100%	5.8	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	2.7%	4.64	4.58	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	87	367	73	37	10	100%	6.2	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	2.7%	4.58	4.55	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	86	361	72	37	10	100%	6.1	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	2.7%	4.59	4.59	+0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	83	350	70	37	10	100%	5.9	19.9%	10.4%	9.4%	2.8%	4.64	4.67	+0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	79	335	72	33	10	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.8%	11.8%	3.0%	4.58	4.53	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	74	315	67	32	10	100%	6.2	21.3%	10.2%	11.1%	3.2%	4.66	4.71	+0.2
2035	31	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	70	293	61	31	10	100%	5.8	20.9%	10.5%	10.4%	3.4%	4.81	4.91	-0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	41	173	32	20	4	100%	5.1	18.4%	11.4%	7.0%	2.6%	4.86	4.79	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	60	253	49	27	7	100%	5.5	19.2%	10.7%	8.5%	2.6%	4.71	4.63	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	71	300	59	31	8	100%	5.9	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	2.6%	4.60	4.54	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	76	321	64	33	8	100%	5.8	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	2.6%	4.54	4.51	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	77	325	65	33	9	100%	5.9	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	2.6%	4.55	4.55	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	76	321	64	33	9	100%	5.8	19.9%	10.4%	9.4%	2.7%	4.60	4.63	+0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	74	312	68	31	9	100%	6.2	21.6%	9.8%	11.8%	2.9%	4.54	4.49	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	70	296	63	30	9	100%	5.8	21.3%	10.2%	11.1%	3.1%	4.61	4.66	+0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	66	279	58	29	9	100%	6.0	20.9%	10.5%	10.4%	3.3%	4.76	4.86	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	104	611	2581	521	268	72	100%	5.9	20.2%	10.4%	9.8%	2.8%	4.62	4.24	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	170	88	24	100%	5.9	20.2%	10.4%	9.8%	2.8%	4.62	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		52	42	191	797	146	83	16	81%	3.7	18.4%	10.4%	8.0%	2.0%	3.68	3.94	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	44	200	835	153	86	16	81%	3.7	18.4%	10.4%	8.0%	2.0%	3.68	3.94	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Bello (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	17.1%	12.6%	2.7%	—	4.69	19.1%	8.3%	256	-0.41	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	89
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	88
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	87
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	85
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	85
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	85
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	84
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	84
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	84
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	84
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	84
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	83
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	83
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	83
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	83
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	83
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	82
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	82
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	79	19.9%	10.6%	1.10	4.71
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59