Juan Bello
P
Asheville Tourists
+0.3
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 173 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.9 · 2029
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.0%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%10.6%
IP74
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cubs Red | 9 | 8 | 31 | 126 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 4 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 10.38 | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 22 | 22 | 90 | 363 | 91 | 28 | 5 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 1.9% | 3.21 | 3.74 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 17 | 9 | 66 | 287 | 66 | 32 | 5 | 17.7% | 12.8% | 1.6% | 3.70 | 4.10 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 74 | 311 | 65 | 32 | 8 | 20.9% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 76 | 323 | 71 | 31 | 9 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.37 | 4.30 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 75 | 30 | 9 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.26 | 4.19 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 79 | 335 | 77 | 30 | 9 | 23.0% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.18 | 4.12 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 79 | 335 | 78 | 30 | 9 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.11 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 79 | 333 | 77 | 30 | 9 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.12 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 76 | 29 | 9 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.14 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 74 | 29 | 9 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.17 | 4.19 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 74 | 311 | 71 | 28 | 9 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.25 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 68 | 28 | 9 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.32 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 64 | 27 | 9 | 22.4% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.41 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 61 | 26 | 8 | 22.0% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.51 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 57 | 26 | 8 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 52 | 25 | 8 | 21.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 52 | 42 | 191 | 797 | 146 | 83 | 15 | 18.4% | 10.4% | 1.9% | 3.68 | 3.90 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 44 | 200 | 835 | 153 | 87 | 16 | 18.4% | 10.4% | 1.9% | 3.68 | 3.90 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Bello (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 20.9% | 10.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.20 | 22.5% | 13.3% | 234 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.71 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | .295 | 5.34 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.63 | 4.71 | 137 | 94 |
| Craig Missigman R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.02 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.04 | 19.2% | 10.4% | 53 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 124 | 94 |
| Nick Garcia R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.54 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.03 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 265 | +0.49 | 4.28 | 355 | 94 |
| William Kempner R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .277 | 3.24 | 27.3% | 11.8% | 68 | -0.80 | 3.24 | 129 | 93 |
| Cade Winquest R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.37 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.94 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 135 | -0.43 | 3.84 | 213 | 92 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .305 | 3.40 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.57 | 2.58 | 408 | 92 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.24 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.43 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.19 | 4.24 | 225 | 92 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .306 | 4.78 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.22 | 3.98 | 371 | 92 |
| Joan Gregorio R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.32 | 18.0% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .269 | 4.21 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 208 | -0.11 | 3.71 | 301 | 91 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.1% | .275 | 4.24 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.26 | 3.32 | 181 | 91 |
| Matt Frawley R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.39 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 139 | 91 |
| Brett Standlee R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.11 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | 4.48 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.37 | 4.11 | 128 | 91 |
| Ryan Long R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.34 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.2% | .263 | 4.70 | 16.6% | 7.3% | 292 | +0.36 | 4.22 | 365 | 91 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.63 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 2.6% | .292 | 2.66 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -1.97 | 2.66 | 145 | 90 |
| Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.45 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.6% | .325 | 4.61 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 105 | +0.16 | 4.10 | 174 | 90 |
| Alec Barger R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.51 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.8% | .289 | 4.17 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.34 | 3.86 | 242 | 90 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.45 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .331 | 6.10 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.65 | 4.45 | 283 | 90 |
| Tyler Skulina R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.29 | 18.3% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .242 | 5.36 | 13.0% | -1.0% | 147 | +1.07 | 4.29 | 222 | 90 |
| Brendan Collins R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.69 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 122 | 90 |
| Levi Wells R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.35 | 20.0% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .360 | 3.54 | 19.5% | 9.7% | 110 | -0.81 | 2.08 | 170 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| Totals | $8M | $23M | +$15M | ||