Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.08 | 5.53 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.08 | 5.75 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 20 | 72 | 325 | 62 | 35 | 3 | 83% | 3.0 | 14.6% | 12.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 3.75 | 4.17 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 20 | 72 | 325 | 62 | 35 | 3 | 83% | 3.0 | 19.1% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 0.9% | 3.75 | 3.38 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 9 | 67 | 299 | 54 | 38 | 5 | 41% | 3.0 | 14.3% | 15.1% | -0.8% | 2.4% | 5.54 | 5.13 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 9 | 67 | 299 | 54 | 38 | 5 | 41% | 3.0 | 18.1% | 12.7% | 5.4% | 1.7% | 5.54 | 4.17 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 12 | 0 | 17 | 82 | 19 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 17.8% | 15.4% | 2.4% | 7.6% | 6.88 | 7.73 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SEA | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 37 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 11.6% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 4.83 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.9% | 11.6% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 4.83 | 4.83 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 63 | 276 | 56 | 34 | 10 | — | — | 20.2% | 12.2% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 5.38 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.9% | 11.6% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 4.83 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 39 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.75 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 43 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 37 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 17 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.75 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 78 | 0 | 82 | 344 | 69 | 39 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 4.38 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 169 | 96 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 66 | 29 | 164 | 746 | 115 | 108 | 19 | 44% | 2.5 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 4.71 | 5.02 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 80 | 35 | 200 | 908 | 140 | 131 | 23 | 44% | 2.5 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 4.71 | 5.02 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sam Whiting (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 18.9% | 11.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 135 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 90 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 86 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.26 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 4.0% | .321 | 3.22 | 25.9% | 16.8% | 60 | -2.04 | 2.63 | 213 | 83 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 82 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.65 | 19.5% | 11.5% | 99 | +0.39 | 3.81 | 233 | 82 |
| Phil Klein R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 82 |
| Grant Black R 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 82 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.03 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .275 | 8.37 | 16.9% | -3.1% | 25 | +4.34 | 4.03 | 161 | 81 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.56 | 17.8% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 259 | 80 |
| Noah Bremer R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 80 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 80 |
| Layne Somsen R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 1.3% | .265 | 4.04 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 92 | +0.32 | 3.67 | 154 | 80 |
| Corey Baker R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.4% | .295 | 4.83 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 170 | +1.15 | 2.94 | 267 | 80 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 79 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 79 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 79 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 78 |
| Brad Allen R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.3% | .315 | 6.07 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 87 | +1.85 | 4.22 | 149 | 78 |
| C.J. Culpepper R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.74 | 21.0% | 12.8% | 1.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 253 | 78 |
| Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .306 | 4.97 | 15.4% | 5.1% | 183 | +0.73 | 3.41 | 390 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 45 | 19.8% | 11.4% | 1.07 | 4.77 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |