Jimmy Joyce
P
Arkansas Travelers
+0.3
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.8%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%11.4%
IP62
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 6 | 6 | 22 | 98 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 3.22 | 3.78 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 25 | 25 | 121 | 541 | 140 | 54 | 14 | 20.3% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 5.58 | 4.24 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 16 | 16 | 70 | 287 | 83 | 20 | 5 | 22.7% | 7.8% | 2.2% | 2.57 | 3.40 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 28 | 10 | 61 | 274 | 61 | 35 | 3 | 17.8% | 14.2% | 1.7% | 5.46 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 6 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 57 | 27 | 7 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 56 | 27 | 7 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 60 | — | 60 | 251 | 55 | 26 | 7 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 53 | 25 | 7 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 51 | 25 | 7 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 48 | 24 | 7 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 45 | 23 | 7 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 42 | 23 | 7 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 39 | 22 | 7 | 20.3% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.99 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 36 | 21 | 6 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 5.11 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 81 | 57 | 284 | 1234 | 255 | 132 | 29 | 20.7% | 10.7% | 2.3% | 4.44 | 3.99 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 40 | 200 | 870 | 180 | 93 | 20 | 20.7% | 10.7% | 2.3% | 4.44 | 3.99 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jimmy Joyce (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.54 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 178 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 89 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 88 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 87 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.54 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 2.87 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.67 | 2.39 | 509 | 87 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 87 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 86 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 86 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 242 | 86 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .247 | 3.31 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.52 | 3.31 | 159 | 86 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 86 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .211 | 4.46 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 98 | +0.20 | 4.26 | 258 | 85 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 85 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.41 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .283 | 4.31 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.90 | 3.41 | 104 | 85 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 85 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.62 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.2% | .252 | 4.15 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 307 | 84 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 84 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.81 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.2% | .341 | 4.59 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | -0.22 | 3.74 | 223 | 84 |
| Steve Geltz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.88 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .209 | 4.78 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 89 | +0.90 | 3.57 | 157 | 84 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 84 |
| Brett McKinney R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 84 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.