Jimmy Joyce

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	16	16	70	2.57	2.51	28.9%	7.0%	—	K 22.7% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.39
2024	25	MIX2 levels	28	10	61	5.46	3.46	22.3%	12.8%	—	K 17.8% · BB 14.2% · FIP 4.30
2025	26	AASEA	6	0	9	0.00	2.89	20.6%	11.8%	—	K 20.6% · BB 11.8% · FIP 2.85
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBSEA	1	1	1	4.79	4.79	20.9%	11.6%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBSEA	2	2	12	4.82	4.87	20.9%	11.6%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsFabio Castillo (age 28) · Clay Condrey (age 27) · Zach Stewart (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%20.9%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	22	98	31	7	2	100%	3.7	25.0%	9.0%	16.0%	3.0%	3.22	3.78	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	22	98	31	7	2	100%	3.7	31.6%	7.1%	24.5%	2.0%	3.22	2.43	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	121	541	140	54	14	100%	4.8	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	2.8%	5.58	4.28	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	121	541	140	54	14	100%	4.8	25.9%	10.0%	15.9%	2.6%	5.58	3.63	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	70	287	83	20	5	100%	4.4	22.7%	7.8%	14.8%	2.2%	2.57	3.39	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	70	287	83	20	5	100%	4.4	28.9%	7.0%	22.0%	1.7%	2.57	2.51	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	10	61	274	61	35	3	36%	2.2	17.8%	14.2%	3.6%	1.7%	5.46	4.30	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	10	61	274	61	35	3	36%	2.2	17.8%	14.2%	3.6%	1.7%	5.46	4.30	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	10	61	274	61	35	3	36%	2.2	22.3%	12.8%	9.5%	1.1%	5.46	3.46	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	6	0	9	34	7	4	0	0%	1.6	20.6%	11.8%	8.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.85	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	6	0	9	34	7	4	0	0%	1.6	20.6%	11.8%	8.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.85	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	6	0	9	34	7	4	0	0%	1.6	20.6%	11.8%	8.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SEA	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	2.9%	4.79	4.79	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	6	6	39	165	34	19	5	100%	6.5	20.9%	11.6%	9.4%	3.1%	4.82	4.87	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	2	2	12	51	11	6	2	100%	6.0	20.9%	11.6%	9.4%	3.1%	4.82	4.87	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	12	52	11	6	2	100%	6.1	20.9%	11.6%	9.4%	3.1%	4.82	4.49	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	180	98	33	100%	6.0	20.9%	11.6%	9.4%	3.1%	4.82	4.49	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		81	57	284	1234	255	132	29	70%	3.5	20.7%	10.7%	10.0%	2.4%	4.44	4.00	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	40	200	870	180	93	20	70%	3.5	20.7%	10.7%	10.0%	2.4%	4.44	4.00	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAArkansas Travelers · 9 IPFIP 2.85 → 3.33 (+0.48)K% 20.6% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.59%	—	×0.810	16.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.100	12.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.800	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 60).

Result: FIP 2.85 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAArkansas Travelers · 59 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.30 (+0.80)K% 22.0% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.97%	—	×0.810	17.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.88%	—	×1.100	14.17%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷0.820	×1.200	1.66%

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Everett AquaSox · 39 IPFIP 2.41 → 3.51 (+1.10)K% 34.0% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.96%	—	×0.770	26.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.29%	—	×1.150	7.23%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷1.012	×1.250	3.11%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.41 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAArkansas Travelers · 31 IPFIP 2.61 → 3.24 (+0.64)K% 22.7% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.66%	—	×0.810	18.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.81%	—	×1.100	8.59%
HR / BF /BF	0.78%	÷0.853	×1.200	1.10%

Result: FIP 2.61 → 3.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Everett AquaSox · 113 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.28 (+0.71)K% 26.4% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.39%	—	×0.770	20.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.33%	—	×1.150	10.72%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.237	×1.250	2.81%

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AModesto Nuts · 8 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.75 (+0.85)K% 18.9% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.92%	—	×0.740	14.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.92%	—	×1.180	22.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.855	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Everett AquaSox · 17 IPFIP 2.77 → 3.78 (+1.01)K% 32.5% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.47%	—	×0.770	25.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.79%	—	×1.150	8.96%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷1.078	×1.250	3.01%

Result: FIP 2.77 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Mariners · 5 IPFIP 1.29 → 2.21 (+0.92)K% 28.6% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.680	19.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.250	5.95%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.904	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 1.29 → 2.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jimmy Joyce (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	20.9%	11.6%	2.9%	—	4.87	20.9%	9.3%	39	+0.08	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	80
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	76
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	73
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	73
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	71
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	70
Jake Walkinshaw R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	28	SP	4.03	16.1%	8.5%	2.2%	.244	3.83	15.7%	5.7%	92	-0.20	2.84	310	70
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	69
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	69
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	69
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	68
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	68
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	68
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	68
Mitch Neunborn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP	27	SP-	4.25	19.0%	12.0%	2.2%	.285	5.80	16.4%	6.5%	114	+1.55	3.65	248	68
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	68
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	67
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	67
Jason García R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	28	SP-	4.76	17.7%	13.5%	2.6%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	356	66
Chi Chi González R 2020 · 4.61 FIP	28	SP-	4.61	17.6%	11.0%	2.9%	.306	4.84	13.6%	7.1%	327	+0.23	4.01	800	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	40	20.9%	11.6%	1.16	4.80
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44