Jimmy Joyce — OGILVIE

Jimmy Joyce P Arkansas Travelers

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%19.9%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	22	98	31	7	2	100%	3.7	25.0%	9.0%	16.0%	3.0%	3.22	3.78	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	22	98	31	7	2	100%	3.7	31.6%	7.1%	24.5%	2.0%	3.22	2.43	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	121	541	140	54	14	100%	4.8	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	2.8%	5.58	4.28	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	121	541	140	54	14	100%	4.8	25.9%	10.0%	15.9%	2.6%	5.58	3.63	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	70	287	83	20	5	100%	4.4	22.7%	7.8%	14.8%	2.2%	2.57	3.39	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	70	287	83	20	5	100%	4.4	22.7%	7.8%	14.8%	2.2%	2.57	3.39	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	70	287	83	20	5	100%	4.4	28.9%	7.0%	22.0%	1.7%	2.57	2.51	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	10	61	274	61	35	3	36%	2.2	17.8%	14.2%	3.6%	1.7%	5.46	4.30	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	10	61	274	61	35	3	36%	2.2	17.8%	14.2%	3.6%	1.7%	5.46	4.30	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	10	61	274	61	35	3	36%	2.2	22.3%	12.8%	9.5%	1.1%	5.46	3.46	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	6	0	9	34	7	4	0	0%	1.6	20.6%	11.8%	8.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.85	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	6	0	9	34	7	4	0	0%	1.6	20.6%	11.8%	8.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.85	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	6	0	9	34	7	4	0	0%	1.6	20.6%	11.8%	8.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.89	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	SEA	1	1	3	13	3	1	0	100%	3.0	19.9%	11.8%	8.1%	2.8%	4.82	4.82	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SEA	7	7	42	177	36	21	5	100%	6.0	20.1%	11.7%	8.4%	2.9%	4.82	4.85	+0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	SEA	3	3	16	68	14	8	2	100%	5.3	20.1%	11.7%	8.4%	2.9%	4.82	4.85	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	16	66	13	8	2	100%	5.2	20.1%	11.7%	8.4%	2.9%	4.82	4.47	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	165	102	25	100%	6.0	20.1%	11.7%	8.4%	2.9%	4.82	4.47	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		81	57	284	1234	255	132	29	70%	3.5	20.7%	10.7%	10.0%	2.4%	4.44	4.00	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	40	200	870	180	93	20	70%	3.5	20.7%	10.7%	10.0%	2.4%	4.44	4.00	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jimmy Joyce (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	19.9%	11.8%	2.8%	—	4.85	20.1%	8.4%	42	+0.03	—	—	—
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	77
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	76
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	76
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	75
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	75
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	74
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	74
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	73
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	73
Kyle Lloyd R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	18.2%	9.8%	2.6%	.336	4.75	17.2%	9.3%	110	+0.52	3.50	572	72
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	72
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	72
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	72
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	72
André Rienzo R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	27	SW	4.22	15.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.264	4.02	19.8%	5.1%	74	-0.20	3.53	200	72
Chase Whitley R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP-	4.10	19.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.217	3.22	18.0%	11.8%	81	-0.88	3.09	159	71
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	71
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	71
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	71
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	43	20.0%	11.7%	1.10	4.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82