Tyler Schlaffer
P
Knoxville Smokies
+0.4
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.8 · 2027
ERA4.71
FIP4.71
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.0%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%9.0%
IP96
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2027
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 12 | 12 | 55 | 247 | 55 | 22 | 7 | 16.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 4.58 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 19 | 19 | 80 | 330 | 86 | 33 | 11 | 20.0% | 12.1% | 4.4% | 3.81 | 5.34 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 21 | 15 | 78 | 349 | 67 | 40 | 7 | 14.5% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 5.29 | 5.04 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 21 | 21 | 105 | 429 | 102 | 46 | 9 | 18.7% | 12.1% | 2.4% | 3.53 | 4.39 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 2 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 12.60 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 96 | 405 | 81 | 45 | 11 | 20.0% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.71 | 4.71 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 101 | 430 | 89 | 49 | 13 | 20.7% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 5.10 | 4.48 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 89 | 46 | 12 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.65 | 4.63 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 93 | 47 | 13 | 20.7% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.61 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 106 | 450 | 93 | 47 | 13 | 20.7% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 104 | 440 | 91 | 46 | 13 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.66 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 87 | 45 | 13 | 20.4% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 98 | 412 | 83 | 44 | 13 | 20.2% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.75 | 4.79 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 94 | 395 | 79 | 43 | 12 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.83 | 4.88 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 74 | 41 | 12 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 4.98 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 69 | 40 | 12 | 19.2% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 5.09 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 80 | 338 | 64 | 38 | 12 | 18.9% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 5.13 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 75 | 316 | 65 | 34 | 11 | 20.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 5.10 | 5.07 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 78 | 69 | 329 | 1404 | 250 | 170 | 46 | 17.8% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.33 | 4.91 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 42 | 200 | 854 | 152 | 103 | 28 | 17.8% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.33 | 4.91 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Schlaffer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.71 | 20.0% | 11.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.62 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 316 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 92 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 90 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 90 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .284 | 3.50 | 22.7% | 14.3% | 84 | -1.40 | 3.50 | 368 | 89 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 88 |
| Corey Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .295 | 5.02 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 170 | +1.25 | 3.08 | 267 | 88 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.93 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.6% | .286 | 5.22 | 16.8% | 4.4% | 61 | +0.29 | 4.24 | 367 | 88 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.02 | 19.7% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .319 | 4.03 | 23.9% | 13.7% | 166 | -0.99 | 3.98 | 481 | 87 |
| David Lebron R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .336 | 5.70 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +1.40 | 4.30 | 144 | 87 |
| Trent Sellers R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 87 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 86 |
| J.P. France R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.6% | .285 | 4.26 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -1.07 | 4.07 | 530 | 86 |
| Phil Klein R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .280 | 3.12 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.76 | 3.12 | 178 | 85 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 85 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 85 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 84 |
| Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.12 | 14.4% | 3.5% | 146 | +0.66 | 3.37 | 353 | 84 |
| Tim Atherton R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 84 |
| Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 199 | 84 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| Totals | $5M | $16M | +$11M | ||