Tyler Schlaffer
P
Knoxville Smokies
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 118
ERA5.23
FIP5.23
K%17.2%
BB%13.2%
K-BB%4.1%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 20.8% | 4.2% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 1.87 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 20.8% | 4.2% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 1.79 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 55 | 247 | 55 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 4.6 | 16.1% | 10.7% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.58 | 5.21 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 55 | 247 | 55 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 4.6 | 22.3% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 3.95 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 80 | 330 | 86 | 33 | 11 | 100% | 4.2 | 20.0% | 12.1% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 3.81 | 5.54 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 80 | 330 | 86 | 33 | 11 | 100% | 4.2 | 26.1% | 10.0% | 16.1% | 3.3% | 3.81 | 3.97 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 15 | 78 | 349 | 67 | 40 | 7 | 71% | 3.7 | 14.5% | 13.3% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 5.29 | 5.25 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 15 | 78 | 349 | 67 | 40 | 7 | 71% | 3.7 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 2.0% | 5.29 | 4.08 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 105 | 429 | 102 | 46 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 18.7% | 12.1% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 3.53 | 4.35 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 105 | 429 | 102 | 46 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.8% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 2.1% | 3.53 | 3.59 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 16 | 11 | 49 | 227 | 64 | 32 | 3 | 69% | 3.1 | 22.8% | 15.5% | 7.3% | 1.6% | 6.20 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 47 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.2% | 13.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.23 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CHC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 13.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.23 | 5.23 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 114 | 501 | 111 | 68 | 11 | — | — | 22.2% | 13.6% | 8.6% | 2.1% | 5.65 | 4.70 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 17.2% | 13.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.23 | 4.85 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 54 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.2% | 12.7% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 5.12 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 54 | 37 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.6% | 12.5% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 5.07 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 53 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.7% | 12.5% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 5.09 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 24 | 17 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.2% | 12.7% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 5.12 | 5.11 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 34 | 23 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 18.6% | 12.5% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 5.07 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 40 | 27 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.7% | 12.5% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 5.09 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 126 | 533 | 99 | 67 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.5% | 12.6% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 5.09 | 4.73 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 157 | 106 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.5% | 12.6% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 5.09 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 92 | 78 | 373 | 1606 | 293 | 201 | 50 | 85% | 4.1 | 18.3% | 12.5% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.84 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 42 | 200 | 861 | 157 | 108 | 27 | 85% | 4.1 | 18.3% | 12.5% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.84 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Schlaffer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.23 | 17.2% | 13.2% | 2.8% | — | 5.11 | 18.5% | 5.9% | 206 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| David Lebron R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 87 |
| J.P. France R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 85 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 84 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 82 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 82 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 82 |
| Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 82 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.7% | .303 | 4.01 | 16.6% | 4.2% | 20 | -0.61 | 4.01 | 214 | 81 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 80 |
| Casey Steward R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 191 | 80 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.79 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.16 | 19.9% | 6.6% | 108 | +0.37 | 4.09 | 414 | 80 |
| Carlson Reed R 2024 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 79 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 79 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 13.2% | 3.7% | .319 | 4.17 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 196 | -0.99 | 4.00 | 512 | 79 |
| Michael Wagner R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.27 | 16.4% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 149 | 79 |
| Johendí Jiminian R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.42 | 14.0% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .282 | 4.43 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 94 | -0.99 | 3.93 | 419 | 78 |
| Trystan Vrieling R 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.66 | 16.8% | 17.2% | 3.3% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 297 | 78 |
| Luis Quiñones R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.73 | 23.5% | 17.5% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.91 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 160 | +0.18 | 3.93 | 323 | 78 |
| Phillippe Aumont R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.64 | 19.6% | 18.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.31 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 64 | +0.67 | 4.64 | 147 | 78 |
| Brett Daniels R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 3.1% | .357 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 77 | +0.20 | 3.98 | 270 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 18.2% | 12.7% | 1.11 | 5.13 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |