Tyler Schlaffer — OGILVIE

Tyler Schlaffer P Knoxville Smokies

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION86 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%17.2%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%3.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4545

CTRL3545

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 2	3	0	5	24	5	1	0	0%	1.8	20.8%	4.2%	16.7%	0.0%	3.38	1.87	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs 2	3	0	5	24	5	1	0	0%	1.8	20.8%	4.2%	16.7%	0.0%	3.38	1.79	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	55	247	55	22	7	100%	4.6	16.1%	10.7%	5.5%	3.8%	4.58	5.17	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	55	247	55	22	7	100%	4.6	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	2.8%	4.58	3.95	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	80	330	86	33	11	100%	4.2	20.0%	12.1%	7.8%	4.4%	3.81	5.39	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	80	330	86	33	11	100%	4.2	26.1%	10.0%	16.1%	3.3%	3.81	3.97	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	15	78	349	67	40	7	71%	3.7	14.5%	13.3%	1.2%	2.8%	5.29	5.08	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	15	78	349	67	40	7	71%	3.7	14.5%	13.3%	1.2%	2.8%	5.29	5.08	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	15	78	349	67	40	7	71%	3.7	19.2%	11.5%	7.7%	2.0%	5.29	4.08	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	105	429	102	46	9	100%	5.0	18.7%	12.1%	6.6%	2.5%	3.53	4.41	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	105	429	102	46	9	100%	5.0	18.7%	12.1%	6.6%	2.5%	3.53	4.41	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	105	429	102	46	9	100%	5.0	23.8%	10.7%	13.1%	2.1%	3.53	3.59	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	31	12	86	367	101	44	5	39%	2.8	22.3%	13.2%	9.1%	1.6%	4.20	3.79	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	31	12	86	367	101	44	5	39%	2.8	22.3%	13.2%	9.1%	1.6%	4.20	3.79	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	CHC	31	12	86	367	101	44	5	39%	2.8	27.5%	12.0%	15.5%	1.4%	4.20	3.04	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CHC	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	17.2%	13.4%	3.8%	2.8%	5.26	5.26	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	92	392	105	47	6	—	—	26.9%	12.1%	14.8%	1.5%	4.27	3.88	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	16	16	94	398	72	51	11	100%	5.9	18.1%	12.8%	5.3%	2.8%	5.14	5.12	-0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	93	392	72	49	11	100%	6.2	18.4%	12.5%	5.9%	2.9%	5.09	5.09	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	90	380	70	47	11	100%	6.0	18.4%	12.4%	6.0%	3.0%	5.10	5.14	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	86	363	66	45	11	100%	6.1	18.3%	12.5%	5.7%	3.1%	5.18	5.24	-0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	81	341	61	44	11	100%	6.2	17.9%	12.8%	5.1%	3.3%	5.33	5.42	-0.5
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	41	173	31	22	5	100%	5.9	18.1%	12.8%	5.3%	2.8%	5.14	5.12	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	59	249	46	31	7	100%	5.9	18.4%	12.5%	5.9%	2.9%	5.09	5.09	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	68	287	53	36	9	100%	6.2	18.4%	12.4%	6.0%	3.0%	5.10	5.14	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	70	296	54	37	9	100%	5.8	18.3%	12.5%	5.7%	3.1%	5.18	5.24	-0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	69	291	52	37	10	100%	5.8	17.9%	12.8%	5.1%	3.3%	5.33	5.42	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	308	1300	237	164	40	100%	6.0	18.2%	12.6%	5.6%	3.1%	5.17	4.84	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	154	107	26	100%	6.0	18.2%	12.6%	5.6%	3.1%	5.17	4.84	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		107	79	409	1746	323	214	50	74%	3.8	18.5%	12.3%	6.3%	2.9%	4.20	4.67	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	39	200	853	158	105	25	74%	3.8	18.5%	12.3%	6.3%	2.9%	4.20	4.67	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Schlaffer (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	17.2%	13.4%	2.8%	—	5.12	18.3%	5.7%	277	-0.14	—	—	—
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	85
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	85
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	84
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	84
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	84
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	83
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	82
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.30	22.5%	7.6%	102	-0.46	3.74	283	81
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	81
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	81
Cole Percival R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.0%	14.3%	1.6%	.335	4.23	18.6%	8.6%	99	-0.10	3.58	327	81
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	80
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	80
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	80
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	80
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	79
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	79
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	79
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	79
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	86	18.1%	12.7%	1.16	5.18
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39