Tyler Schlaffer

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	21	15	78	5.29	4.08	19.2%	11.5%	—	K 14.5% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.08
2025	24	MIX2 levels	21	21	105	3.53	3.59	23.8%	10.7%	—	K 18.7% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.41
2026	25	AACHC	31	12	86	4.20	3.04	27.5%	12.0%	—	K 22.3% · BB 13.2% · FIP 3.79
2027PROJ	26	MLBCHC	1	1	1	4.92	4.92	20.2%	13.8%	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	27	MLBCHC	3	3	20	4.87	4.89	20.3%	13.3%	0.1
2029PROJ46% MLB	28	MLBCHC	5	5	30	4.88	4.92	20.3%	13.0%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsDavid Lebron (age 25) · Nick Pasquale (age 26) · Jackson Finley (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%20.2%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%6.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 2	3	0	5	24	5	1	0	0%	1.8	20.8%	4.2%	16.7%	0.0%	3.38	1.87	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs 2	3	0	5	24	5	1	0	0%	1.8	20.8%	4.2%	16.7%	0.0%	3.38	1.79	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	55	247	55	22	7	100%	4.6	16.1%	10.7%	5.5%	3.8%	4.58	5.17	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	55	247	55	22	7	100%	4.6	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	2.8%	4.58	3.95	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	80	330	86	33	11	100%	4.2	20.0%	12.1%	7.8%	4.4%	3.81	5.39	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	80	330	86	33	11	100%	4.2	26.1%	10.0%	16.1%	3.3%	3.81	3.97	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	15	78	349	67	40	7	71%	3.7	14.5%	13.3%	1.2%	2.8%	5.29	5.08	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	15	78	349	67	40	7	71%	3.7	14.5%	13.3%	1.2%	2.8%	5.29	5.08	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	15	78	349	67	40	7	71%	3.7	19.2%	11.5%	7.7%	2.0%	5.29	4.08	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	105	429	102	46	9	100%	5.0	18.7%	12.1%	6.6%	2.5%	3.53	4.41	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	105	429	102	46	9	100%	5.0	18.7%	12.1%	6.6%	2.5%	3.53	4.41	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	105	429	102	46	9	100%	5.0	23.8%	10.7%	13.1%	2.1%	3.53	3.59	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	31	12	86	367	101	44	5	39%	2.8	22.3%	13.2%	9.1%	1.6%	4.20	3.79	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	31	12	86	367	101	44	5	39%	2.8	22.3%	13.2%	9.1%	1.6%	4.20	3.79	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	31	12	86	367	101	44	5	39%	2.8	27.5%	12.0%	15.5%	1.4%	4.20	3.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CHC	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	20.2%	13.8%	6.4%	2.5%	4.92	4.92	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	74	312	64	41	8	100%	6.2	20.3%	13.3%	7.1%	2.6%	4.87	4.89	+0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	65	276	56	36	8	100%	5.9	20.3%	13.0%	7.3%	2.8%	4.88	4.92	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	59	250	50	32	7	100%	5.9	20.2%	13.0%	7.2%	2.9%	4.95	5.02	+0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	53	225	45	30	7	100%	5.9	19.9%	13.1%	6.8%	3.1%	5.08	5.18	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	3	3	20	84	17	11	2	100%	6.7	20.3%	13.3%	7.1%	2.6%	4.87	4.89	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	5	5	30	127	26	16	3	100%	6.0	20.3%	13.0%	7.3%	2.8%	4.88	4.92	+0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	34	144	29	19	4	100%	5.7	20.2%	13.0%	7.2%	2.9%	4.95	5.02	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	35	148	29	19	5	100%	5.8	19.9%	13.1%	6.8%	3.1%	5.08	5.18	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	20	118	500	101	65	14	100%	5.9	20.2%	13.1%	7.1%	2.9%	4.96	4.64	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	171	110	24	100%	6.0	20.2%	13.1%	7.1%	2.9%	4.96	4.64	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		107	79	409	1746	323	214	50	74%	3.8	18.5%	12.3%	6.3%	2.9%	4.20	4.67	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	39	200	853	158	105	25	74%	3.8	18.5%	12.3%	6.3%	2.9%	4.20	4.67	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 86 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.79 (+0.74)K% 27.5% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.52%	—	×0.810	22.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.99%	—	×1.100	13.19%
HR / BF /BF	1.36%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.63%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 59 IPFIP 4.06 → 4.97 (+0.91)K% 24.8% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.79%	—	×0.770	19.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.57%	—	×1.150	13.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.89%	÷1.106	×1.250	3.27%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 4.06 → 4.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 45 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.68 (+0.67)K% 22.5% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.46%	—	×0.810	18.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.63%	—	×1.100	10.59%
HR / BF /BF	1.07%	÷0.911	×1.200	1.41%

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 45 IPFIP 5.08 → 6.20 (+1.12)K% 15.1% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.14%	—	×0.770	11.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.76%	—	×1.150	15.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷0.909	×1.250	3.78%

Result: FIP 5.08 → 6.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 34 IPFIP 2.29 → 3.22 (+0.92)K% 26.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.95%	—	×0.740	19.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.63%	—	×1.180	9.01%
HR / BF /BF	0.76%	÷0.908	×1.300	1.09%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.29 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 75 IPFIP 3.89 → 5.39 (+1.50)K% 27.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.01%	—	×0.740	19.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.29%	—	×1.180	12.14%
HR / BF /BF	3.22%	÷0.942	×1.300	4.44%

Result: FIP 3.89 → 5.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 41 IPFIP 4.24 → 5.54 (+1.30)K% 22.1% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.10%	—	×0.740	16.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.39%	—	×1.180	11.08%
HR / BF /BF	3.31%	÷0.977	×1.300	4.41%

Result: FIP 4.24 → 5.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Cubs · 14 IPFIP 2.97 → 4.14 (+1.17)K% 22.7% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.680	15.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.58%	—	×1.250	9.47%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.014	×1.400	2.09%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.97 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Schlaffer (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	4.94	20.3%	7.2%	198	+0.02	—	—	—
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	85
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	84
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	80
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	79
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	78
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	78
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	78
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	78
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	78
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	77
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	77
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	77
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	77
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	77
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	76
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	76
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	76
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	76
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	76
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	64	20.2%	13.3%	1.07	4.93
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88