Moises Castillo — OGILVIE

Moises Castillo P ACL Reds

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 157 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.8 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.49

FIP5.49

K%17.9%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%2.7%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	11	9	36	150	40	14	3	82%	3.3	18.1%	11.7%	6.5%	2.8%	3.22	4.58	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	11	9	36	150	40	14	3	82%	3.3	18.1%	11.7%	6.5%	2.8%	3.22	4.58	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	11	9	36	150	40	14	3	82%	3.3	26.7%	9.3%	17.3%	2.0%	3.22	3.13	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	13	10	51	222	58	26	2	77%	3.9	17.8%	14.6%	3.1%	1.3%	3.51	4.16	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	13	10	51	222	58	26	2	77%	3.9	17.8%	14.6%	3.1%	1.3%	3.51	4.16	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	13	10	51	222	58	26	2	77%	3.9	26.1%	11.7%	14.4%	0.9%	3.51	2.87	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	9	1	16	80	29	9	1	11%	1.8	24.6%	14.1%	10.6%	1.7%	9.56	3.76	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	9	1	16	80	29	9	1	11%	1.8	24.6%	14.1%	10.6%	1.7%	9.56	3.76	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	CIN	9	1	16	80	29	9	1	11%	1.8	36.2%	11.2%	25.0%	1.2%	9.56	2.15	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	48	205	40	27	6	100%	6.1	19.3%	13.4%	5.9%	2.8%	5.21	5.11	-0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	50	212	43	26	6	100%	5.6	20.4%	12.2%	8.2%	2.8%	4.97	4.85	+0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	52	218	46	25	6	100%	5.7	21.1%	11.5%	9.6%	2.8%	4.79	4.69	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	52	220	47	24	6	100%	5.8	21.5%	11.0%	10.5%	2.8%	4.66	4.59	+0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	52	220	48	24	6	100%	5.8	21.7%	11.0%	10.7%	2.8%	4.60	4.57	+0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	51	217	47	24	6	100%	5.7	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	2.8%	4.60	4.61	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	24	101	20	14	3	100%	6.0	19.3%	13.4%	5.9%	3.1%	5.33	5.23	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	37	156	32	19	5	100%	6.2	20.4%	12.2%	8.2%	3.0%	5.09	4.97	+0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	43	182	38	21	5	100%	5.4	21.1%	11.5%	9.6%	3.0%	4.91	4.81	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	46	194	42	21	6	100%	5.8	21.5%	11.0%	10.5%	3.0%	4.78	4.71	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	48	203	44	22	6	100%	6.0	21.7%	11.0%	10.7%	3.0%	4.72	4.69	+0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	48	203	44	22	6	100%	6.0	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	3.1%	4.72	4.73	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	42	245	1033	218	119	31	100%	5.8	21.1%	11.5%	9.6%	3.0%	4.88	4.44	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	178	97	25	100%	5.9	21.1%	11.5%	9.6%	3.0%	4.88	4.44	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		33	20	104	452	86	61	8	61%	3.1	19.1%	13.6%	5.6%	1.9%	4.34	4.23	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	39	200	872	167	118	16	61%	3.1	19.1%	13.6%	5.6%	1.9%	4.34	4.23	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Moises Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	17.9%	15.2%	2.9%	—	4.88	20.3%	7.9%	150	-0.61	—	—	—
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	88
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	87
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	85
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.62	298	85
Luis Garcia R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	21	SP-	4.30	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.65	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.65	3.40	535	84
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	84
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	84
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	84
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	83
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	83
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	83
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	83
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	82
Nestor Lorant R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SW	5.53	18.7%	18.2%	3.1%	.280	3.86	20.5%	11.3%	249	-1.67	2.73	373	82
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	82
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	82
Luis De La Cruz R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	20	SW	4.31	17.5%	16.9%	1.0%	.281	5.19	18.3%	-2.9%	124	+0.88	3.55	158	82
Kristian Cardozo R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	20	SW	4.89	16.3%	13.5%	2.7%	.358	6.76	13.6%	-4.3%	15	+1.87	3.49	138	81
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	81
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	50	20.6%	12.1%	1.09	4.88
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77