Moises Castillo
P
DSL Rojos
+0.1
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'0" / 157 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.6 · 2029
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.5%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.5%
IP46
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rojos | 11 | 9 | 36 | 150 | 40 | 14 | 3 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 3.22 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Rojos | 13 | 10 | 51 | 222 | 58 | 26 | 2 | 17.8% | 14.6% | 1.3% | 3.51 | 4.16 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | — | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 22.5% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | — | 49 | — | 49 | 205 | 48 | 19 | 6 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | — | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 51 | 19 | 6 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.10 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | — | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 54 | 19 | 6 | 24.7% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.08 | 4.01 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | — | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 55 | 19 | 6 | 25.0% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 3.96 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | — | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 56 | 19 | 6 | 25.2% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.94 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | — | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 55 | 18 | 6 | 25.3% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 3.95 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | — | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 54 | 18 | 6 | 25.2% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.98 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | — | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 53 | 18 | 6 | 25.1% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.00 | 4.02 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | — | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 51 | 18 | 6 | 24.9% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.08 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | — | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 49 | 17 | 6 | 24.6% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.16 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | — | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 46 | 17 | 6 | 24.4% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | — | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 44 | 16 | 6 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.28 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | — | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 41 | 16 | 6 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.38 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 19 | 88 | 372 | 67 | 50 | 7 | 17.9% | 13.4% | 1.9% | 3.39 | 4.33 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 43 | 200 | 849 | 153 | 114 | 16 | 17.9% | 13.4% | 1.9% | 3.39 | 4.33 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Moises Castillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.5% | 10.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.11 | 24.1% | 15.3% | 151 | -0.33 | — | — | — |
| Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 92 |
| Kyle Marman R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 91 |
| Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.40 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .275 | 4.62 | 16.1% | 5.5% | 43 | +0.22 | 4.40 | 140 | 90 |
| Tyler Gray R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.49 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .333 | 4.39 | 11.9% | 3.6% | 72 | -0.10 | 4.39 | 119 | 89 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.83 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.32 | 4.03 | 266 | 89 |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 89 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 88 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 2.8% | .296 | 3.44 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.05 | 2.98 | 107 | 88 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 88 |
| TJ Shook R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.4% | .311 | 4.99 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.09 | 3.35 | 394 | 88 |
| Jeremy Beasley R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.71 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .273 | 4.09 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 234 | -0.62 | 3.17 | 337 | 88 |
| Brandon Komar R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.74 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .327 | 4.93 | 16.7% | 5.7% | 198 | +0.19 | 3.03 | 538 | 87 |
| Luis Alvarado R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.24 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .276 | 5.18 | 18.7% | 4.4% | 140 | -0.06 | 4.91 | 162 | 87 |
| Ty Tice R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.29 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .271 | 3.52 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 108 | -0.77 | 3.24 | 288 | 87 |
| Juan Mendez R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.50 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.08 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.58 | 3.73 | 156 | 87 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.48 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.10 | 4.15 | 338 | 87 |
| Hunter Dula R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .340 | 4.56 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 91 | +0.66 | 3.90 | 132 | 87 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 87 |
| Brandon Beckel R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.74 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .250 | 4.34 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 76 | +0.60 | 3.74 | 123 | 87 |
| Austin Smith R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $3M | $11M | +$7M | ||