Carlton Perkins — OGILVIE

Carlton Perkins P Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 157149vR 141

ERA6.53

FIP6.53

K%14.3%

BB%21.1%

K-BB%-6.9%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	6	4	8	41	6	6	0	67%	1.4	14.6%	14.6%	0.0%	0.0%	10.80	3.72	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	6	4	8	41	6	6	0	67%	1.4	14.6%	14.6%	0.0%	0.0%	10.80	3.72	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	6	4	8	41	6	6	0	67%	1.4	14.6%	14.6%	0.0%	0.0%	10.80	3.82	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	9	58	272	72	35	2	41%	2.6	18.6%	15.7%	2.9%	1.2%	4.50	4.16	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	9	58	272	72	35	2	41%	2.6	18.6%	15.7%	2.9%	1.2%	4.50	4.16	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	9	58	272	72	35	2	41%	2.6	26.5%	12.9%	13.6%	0.7%	4.50	2.88	—
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	33	0	41	194	37	32	3	0%	1.2	14.1%	19.5%	-5.4%	2.4%	5.75	5.67	—
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	33	0	41	194	37	32	3	0%	1.2	14.1%	19.5%	-5.4%	2.4%	5.75	5.67	—
2025	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	33	0	41	194	37	32	3	0%	1.2	19.1%	16.5%	2.6%	1.5%	5.75	4.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	32	0	40	178	62	25	1	0%	1.3	24.7%	15.5%	9.1%	1.1%	3.57	3.61	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	32	0	40	178	62	25	1	0%	1.3	24.7%	15.5%	9.1%	1.1%	3.57	3.61	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	CWS	5	0	7	30	12	6	0	0%	1.4	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	2.57	2.26	—
2026	23	A RAW	CWS	21	0	25	114	38	15	1	0%	1.2	33.3%	13.2%	20.2%	0.9%	3.55	2.43	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	CWS	6	0	8	34	12	4	0	0%	1.3	35.3%	11.8%	23.5%	0.0%	4.50	1.61	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CWS	51	0	54	227	37	42	6	0%	1.1	16.2%	18.5%	-2.2%	2.9%	6.14	6.02	-0.9
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	52	0	54	230	40	39	7	0%	1.0	17.4%	16.8%	0.6%	2.9%	5.83	5.71	-0.7
2027	24	MLB CTX	CWS	22	0	23	97	16	18	3	0%	1.0	16.2%	18.5%	-2.2%	2.9%	6.14	6.02	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	34	0	36	152	26	26	4	0%	1.1	17.4%	16.8%	0.6%	2.9%	5.83	5.71	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	249	42	43	7	0%	1.1	16.9%	17.4%	-0.5%	2.9%	5.95	5.45	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	142	146	24	0%	1.1	16.9%	17.4%	-0.5%	2.9%	5.95	5.45	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		93	13	147	685	128	114	10	14%	1.6	18.7%	16.7%	2.0%	1.4%	4.95	4.42	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	18	200	930	174	155	13	14%	1.6	18.7%	16.7%	2.0%	1.4%	4.95	4.42	-3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlton Perkins (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.53	14.3%	21.1%	2.9%	—	5.86	16.8%	-0.8%	108	-0.67	—	—	—
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	87
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	85
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	84
Roman Phansalkar R 2022 · 6.38 FIP	24	SU	6.38	13.5%	18.4%	3.8%	.245	4.77	17.4%	4.0%	147	-1.61	4.33	164	84
Jake Gozzo R 2021 · 7.10 FIP	24	SU	7.10	14.3%	30.2%	2.5%	.200	5.35	15.8%	-0.7%	129	-1.75	4.32	162	83
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	83
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	83
Audry Lugo R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	23	SU	5.76	13.7%	16.3%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	113	83
Edgar Navarro R 2021 · 6.23 FIP	23	SU	6.23	13.3%	17.7%	3.7%	.297	4.20	18.7%	2.1%	87	-2.03	3.30	244	83
Jack Hartman R 2022 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	15.1%	20.3%	2.5%	.357	3.99	19.5%	8.6%	143	-1.79	3.46	161	82
Dallas Woolfolk R 2021 · 6.62 FIP	24	SU	6.62	12.9%	21.9%	3.3%	.324	5.12	14.0%	0.7%	50	-1.50	5.12	100	82
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	82
Alec Kenilvort R 2016 · 6.44 FIP	23	SU	6.44	15.1%	17.0%	4.5%	.333	3.97	18.3%	9.1%	85	-2.47	2.97	109	82
Luis Ledo R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	23	SU	5.51	17.1%	17.6%	3.0%	.329	3.65	20.8%	8.0%	85	-1.86	3.27	376	82
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	81
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	81
Yunior Thibo R 2021 · 6.35 FIP	23	SU	6.35	11.5%	15.8%	4.0%	.312	4.82	15.6%	-1.0%	95	-1.53	4.42	110	81
Jon Keller R 2016 · 5.48 FIP	23	SW	5.48	15.3%	20.9%	1.9%	.265	3.84	8.9%	-2.9%	15	-1.64	3.64	156	80
Zach Barnes R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	23	SU	5.35	18.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.378	5.03	14.9%	1.5%	119	-0.32	4.90	145	80
German Taveras R 2016 · 6.41 FIP	23	SU	6.41	10.9%	15.7%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	108	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	16.0%	18.8%	1.11	6.16
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77