Connor Cooke

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 203 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	22	MIX2 levels	25	8	57	5.21	2.50	30.9%	7.0%	—	K 23.7% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.35
2023	23	MIX3 levels	38	0	44	4.06	2.24	40.6%	9.6%	—	K 33.3% · BB 6.9% · FIP 2.93
2024	24	AAATOR	33	0	32	4.55	5.09	20.3%	18.9%	—	K 17.4% · BB 17.0% · FIP 5.02
2025	25	No MLB games played
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBTOR	6	0	6	4.76	4.76	21.9%	11.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	28	MLBTOR	14	0	15	4.77	4.80	21.9%	11.8%	-0.0
2029PROJ47% MLB	29	MLBTOR	18	0	19	4.83	4.90	21.8%	11.8%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsFernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 27) · Cole McDonald (age 27) · Ronald Peña (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%21.9%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	5	18	8	1	1	0%	1.0	44.4%	5.6%	38.9%	5.6%	1.80	3.10	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	5	18	8	1	1	0%	1.0	44.4%	5.6%	38.9%	5.6%	1.80	3.10	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	8	57	243	75	17	5	32%	2.3	23.7%	8.4%	15.3%	2.2%	5.21	3.35	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	8	57	243	75	17	5	32%	2.3	30.9%	7.0%	23.9%	2.1%	5.21	2.50	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	44	197	80	19	5	0%	1.2	33.3%	6.9%	26.4%	3.2%	4.06	2.93	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	0	44	197	80	19	5	0%	1.2	40.6%	9.6%	31.0%	2.5%	4.06	2.24	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	33	0	32	148	30	28	3	0%	1.0	17.4%	17.0%	0.4%	2.3%	4.55	5.02	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	33	0	32	148	30	28	3	0%	1.0	17.4%	17.0%	0.4%	2.3%	4.55	5.02	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	33	0	32	148	30	28	3	0%	1.0	20.3%	18.9%	1.4%	2.0%	4.55	5.09	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TOR	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	3.0%	4.76	4.76	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	44	0	46	196	43	23	6	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.8%	10.1%	3.1%	4.77	4.80	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	38	0	40	167	36	20	5	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.8%	10.0%	3.2%	4.83	4.90	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	14	0	15	63	14	7	2	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.8%	10.1%	3.1%	4.77	4.80	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	18	0	19	80	17	9	3	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.8%	10.0%	3.2%	4.83	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		32	0	34	143	31	17	5	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.8%	10.1%	3.1%	4.80	4.47	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	100	29	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.8%	10.1%	3.1%	4.80	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		101	8	138	606	157	60	16	8%	1.4	25.9%	9.9%	16.0%	2.6%	4.57	3.61	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	12	200	878	227	87	23	8%	1.4	25.9%	9.9%	16.0%	2.6%	4.57	3.61	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 32 IPFIP 4.90 → 5.02 (+0.12)K% 20.3% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.27%	—	×0.860	17.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.92%	—	×0.900	17.03%
HR / BF /BF	2.03%	÷0.990	×1.100	2.25%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 4.90 → 5.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 25 IPFIP 1.89 → 2.93 (+1.03)K% 41.1% → 33.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.07%	—	×0.810	33.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.100	6.88%
HR / BF /BF	2.68%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.21%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.89 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAABuffalo Bisons · 10 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.39 (+0.38)K% 32.6% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.61%	—	×0.860	28.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.57%	—	×0.900	17.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷0.916	×1.100	2.61%

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Vancouver Canadians · 9 IPFIP 1.37 → 2.46 (+1.09)K% 48.7% → 37.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	48.72%	—	×0.770	37.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.150	8.85%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.253	×1.250	2.56%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 1.37 → 2.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADunedin Blue Jays · 46 IPFIP 2.14 → 3.35 (+1.21)K% 32.0% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.98%	—	×0.740	23.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.11%	—	×1.180	8.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷0.916	×1.300	2.16%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 2.14 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Vancouver Canadians · 11 IPFIP 4.11 → 5.49 (+1.38)K% 26.1% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.770	20.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.52%	—	×1.150	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷0.952	×1.250	5.71%

Result: FIP 4.11 → 5.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Cooke (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.85	21.8%	10.1%	86	+0.09	—	—	—
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	87
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	86
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	86
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	85
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	85
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	85
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	85
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	85
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	84
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	84
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	84
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	83
Jason Motte R 2009 · 4.62 FIP	27	SU	4.62	22.1%	9.0%	4.1%	.297	2.84	26.9%	21.0%	192	-1.78	2.22	387	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	83
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	83
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	83
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	83
Ryan Garton R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	25.2%	11.3%	2.3%	.252	4.15	23.5%	10.8%	108	+0.48	3.14	307	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	21.8%	11.8%	1.19	4.78
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*