Jhoster Baez — OGILVIE

Jhoster Baez P FCL Astros

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.38

FIP5.38

K%21.4%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%5.2%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	12	6	37	161	41	19	2	50%	3.1	17.3%	14.8%	2.6%	1.9%	3.89	4.57	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	12	6	37	161	41	19	2	50%	3.1	17.3%	14.8%	2.6%	1.9%	3.89	4.57	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	12	6	37	161	41	19	2	50%	3.1	25.5%	11.8%	13.7%	1.2%	3.89	3.13	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	1	32	147	43	24	4	7%	2.1	20.3%	19.6%	0.7%	4.1%	7.03	6.11	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	1	32	147	43	24	4	7%	2.1	20.3%	19.6%	0.7%	4.1%	7.03	6.11	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	1	32	147	43	24	4	7%	2.1	29.3%	16.3%	12.9%	2.7%	7.03	4.29	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	1	52	273	51	52	5	4%	2.1	12.9%	21.9%	-9.1%	1.8%	6.62	5.80	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	1	52	273	51	52	5	4%	2.1	12.9%	21.9%	-9.1%	1.8%	6.62	5.80	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	HOU	13	1	33	158	38	28	2	8%	2.5	24.1%	17.7%	6.3%	1.3%	4.09	4.01	—
2026	21	A RAW	HOU	8	0	10	66	4	12	1	0%	1.2	6.1%	18.2%	-12.1%	1.5%	11.70	5.72	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	HOU	4	0	9	49	9	12	2	0%	2.2	18.4%	24.5%	-6.1%	4.1%	10.38	6.89	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	HOU	51	0	53	224	51	31	7	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.9%	8.7%	3.0%	5.08	4.95	-0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	52	0	55	233	54	29	7	0%	1.1	23.3%	12.3%	11.1%	2.9%	4.81	4.66	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	HOU	54	0	56	239	57	27	7	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.3%	12.6%	2.9%	4.60	4.47	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	HOU	54	0	57	242	59	26	7	0%	1.1	24.2%	10.6%	13.7%	2.9%	4.45	4.35	+0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	HOU	54	0	57	242	59	25	7	0%	1.1	24.4%	10.5%	13.9%	2.9%	4.38	4.33	+0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	HOU	25	0	26	110	25	15	3	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.9%	8.7%	3.0%	5.08	4.95	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	38	0	40	169	39	21	5	0%	1.1	23.3%	12.3%	11.1%	2.9%	4.81	4.66	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	HOU	45	0	47	198	47	22	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.3%	12.6%	2.9%	4.60	4.47	+0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	HOU	49	0	51	215	52	23	6	0%	1.0	24.2%	10.6%	13.7%	2.9%	4.45	4.35	+0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	HOU	50	0	52	220	54	23	6	0%	1.0	24.4%	10.5%	13.9%	2.9%	4.38	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		206	0	216	911	217	104	26	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.4%	12.4%	2.9%	4.61	4.12	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	96	24	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.4%	12.4%	2.9%	4.61	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		52	8	121	581	93	112	14	15%	2.3	16.0%	19.4%	-3.4%	2.4%	5.89	5.54	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	13	200	963	154	186	23	15%	2.3	16.0%	19.4%	-3.4%	2.4%	5.89	5.54	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhoster Baez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.38	21.4%	16.2%	3.0%	—	4.69	23.3%	10.8%	165	-0.69	—	—	—
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	87
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	86
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	85
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	84
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	83
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	83
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	83
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	83
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	83
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	82
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	82
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	82
Jordy Luciano R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	21	SU	4.97	24.9%	22.3%	2.1%	.306	5.33	17.1%	-4.8%	80	+0.36	4.97	104	82
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	82
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	82
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	81
Marc Davis R 2022 · 5.26 FIP	22	SU	5.26	20.7%	14.0%	3.9%	.151	4.87	17.1%	-0.3%	88	-0.39	4.02	111	81
Connor Walsh R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	22	SU	4.76	23.3%	20.7%	1.8%	.288	3.98	21.3%	6.8%	151	-0.78	3.36	266	81
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	81
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	50	23.6%	12.0%	1.12	4.70
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10