Jhoster Baez

P FCL Astros

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDSL Astros Or…	12	6	37	3.89	3.13	25.5%	11.8%	—	K 17.3% · BB 14.8% · FIP 4.57
2025	20	MIX2 levels	15	1	32	7.03	4.29	29.3%	16.3%	—	K 20.3% · BB 19.6% · FIP 6.11
2026	21	MIX3 levels	25	1	52	6.62	5.40	18.7%	19.0%	—	K 12.9% · BB 21.9% · FIP 5.80
2027PROJ	22	MLBHOU	—	—	0	6.09	6.09	17.1%	19.3%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBHOU	16	0	17	5.67	5.51	19.1%	16.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBHOU	23	0	24	5.32	5.14	20.2%	14.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsConor Grady (age 22) · Fabian Anguamea (age 22) · Garrett Apker (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.09

FIP6.09

K%17.1%

BB%19.3%

K-BB%-2.2%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	12	6	37	161	41	19	2	50%	3.1	17.3%	14.8%	2.6%	1.9%	3.89	4.57	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	12	6	37	161	41	19	2	50%	3.1	17.3%	14.8%	2.6%	1.9%	3.89	4.57	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	12	6	37	161	41	19	2	50%	3.1	25.5%	11.8%	13.7%	1.2%	3.89	3.13	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	1	32	147	43	24	4	7%	2.1	20.3%	19.6%	0.7%	4.1%	7.03	6.11	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	1	32	147	43	24	4	7%	2.1	20.3%	19.6%	0.7%	4.1%	7.03	6.11	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	1	32	147	43	24	4	7%	2.1	29.3%	16.3%	12.9%	2.7%	7.03	4.29	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	1	52	273	51	52	5	4%	2.1	12.9%	21.9%	-9.1%	1.8%	6.62	5.80	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	1	52	273	51	52	5	4%	2.1	12.9%	21.9%	-9.1%	1.8%	6.62	5.80	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	1	52	273	51	52	5	4%	2.1	18.7%	19.0%	-0.4%	1.8%	6.62	5.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.1%	19.3%	-2.2%	2.9%	6.09	6.09	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	32	0	34	143	27	23	4	0%	1.1	19.1%	16.2%	2.8%	2.9%	5.67	5.51	-0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	HOU	32	0	34	143	29	20	4	0%	1.1	20.2%	14.2%	6.0%	2.9%	5.32	5.14	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	16	0	17	72	14	12	2	0%	1.1	19.1%	16.2%	2.8%	2.9%	5.67	5.51	-0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	HOU	23	0	24	101	20	14	3	0%	1.0	20.2%	14.2%	6.0%	2.9%	5.32	5.14	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	0	40	170	34	26	5	0%	1.1	19.7%	15.0%	4.7%	2.9%	5.46	4.92	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	129	25	0%	1.1	19.7%	15.0%	4.7%	2.9%	5.46	4.92	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		52	8	121	581	93	112	14	15%	2.3	16.0%	19.4%	-3.4%	2.4%	5.89	5.54	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	13	200	963	154	186	23	15%	2.3	16.0%	19.4%	-3.4%	2.4%	5.89	5.54	-1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Astros · 33 IPFIP 4.01 → 5.50 (+1.49)K% 24.1% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.05%	—	×0.680	16.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.72%	—	×1.250	22.15%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.77%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.01 → 5.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 10 IPFIP 5.72 → 6.52 (+0.80)K% 6.1% → 4.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	6.06%	—	×0.740	4.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×1.180	21.45%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.97%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.72 → 6.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Asheville Tourists · 9 IPFIP 6.89 → 8.27 (+1.38)K% 18.4% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.37%	—	×0.770	14.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.49%	—	×1.150	28.16%
HR / BF /BF	4.08%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.10%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.89 → 8.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Astros · 30 IPFIP 4.20 → 6.11 (+1.91)K% 29.9% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.85%	—	×0.680	20.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.67%	—	×1.250	19.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.99%	÷1.023	×1.400	4.09%

Result: FIP 4.20 → 6.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Astros Orange · 37 IPFIP 3.13 → 4.57 (+1.44)K% 25.5% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.47%	—	×0.680	17.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.80%	—	×1.250	14.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.24%	÷0.900	×1.400	1.93%

Result: FIP 3.13 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhoster Baez (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.09	17.1%	19.3%	2.9%	—	5.32	19.6%	4.4%	68	-0.77	—	—	—
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	87
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	84
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	83
Hansel Rosario R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SW	5.54	19.2%	22.2%	2.3%	.306	7.16	16.3%	-21.0%	19	+1.62	5.25	107	83
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	82
Derrick Turnbow R 2000 · 6.58 FIP	22	SU	6.58	13.8%	19.9%	3.9%	.257	1.43	28.3%	22.6%	15	-5.15	1.43	245	82
Frank Martinez R 2024 · 5.90 FIP	22	SU	5.90	20.0%	21.5%	3.2%	.268	5.08	16.8%	3.7%	77	-0.82	3.30	135	82
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	81
Justin Kelly R 2021 · 5.93 FIP	22	SU	5.93	15.5%	14.3%	4.2%	.259	4.93	15.4%	6.8%	149	-1.00	3.17	196	81
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	81
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	81
Tommy McCollum R 2021 · 6.21 FIP	22	SU	6.21	17.1%	27.2%	2.0%	.235	3.80	26.4%	10.9%	112	-2.41	2.90	219	81
Jake Eddington R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	23	SW	5.02	18.8%	24.1%	0.8%	.316	4.83	16.6%	-1.5%	105	-0.19	4.70	135	81
Brett Hanewich R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	22	SU	5.18	15.9%	17.6%	2.2%	.372	4.32	20.3%	2.8%	108	-0.86	4.24	134	80
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	80
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	80
Braden Bristo R 2017 · 5.36 FIP	22	SU	5.36	14.2%	15.9%	2.6%	.353	3.65	22.8%	12.6%	120	-1.71	3.41	300	80
Johan Moreno R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	21	SW	6.25	13.2%	16.7%	3.9%	.325	4.36	20.7%	8.0%	115	-1.89	3.09	216	80
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	80
Bernard Jose R 2024 · 6.14 FIP	21	SU	6.14	14.4%	19.0%	3.4%	.309	4.95	18.5%	6.4%	134	-1.19	4.44	222	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	30	19.0%	16.3%	1.12	5.65
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*