Justin Kelly
P
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 108
ERA4.73
FIP4.73
K%20.0%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%10.2%
ROS IP18
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 11 | 1 | 21 | 91 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 9% | 1.9 | 15.5% | 14.3% | 1.2% | 4.2% | 6.33 | 5.91 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 11 | 1 | 21 | 91 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 9% | 1.9 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 6.33 | 4.69 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 70 | 310 | 62 | 21 | 13 | 0% | 1.8 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.99 | 6.23 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 70 | 310 | 62 | 21 | 13 | 0% | 1.8 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 13.2% | 4.2% | 4.99 | 4.64 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 36 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.7% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.80 | 4.35 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 36 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.8% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 1.80 | 4.10 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 33 | 135 | 32 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 0.8% | 2.43 | 3.14 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 33 | 135 | 32 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 8.1% | 15.6% | 0.7% | 2.43 | 2.56 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 32 | 157 | 27 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.3% | 11.2% | 2.1% | 4.9% | 5.91 | 6.06 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 32 | 157 | 27 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 5.91 | 4.44 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 17 | 0 | 18 | 75 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.77 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.39 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 160 | 80 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 141 | 1 | 202 | 884 | 133 | 86 | 36 | 1% | 1.4 | 15.0% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.14 | 5.29 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 140 | 1 | 200 | 875 | 132 | 85 | 36 | 1% | 1.4 | 15.0% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.14 | 5.29 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Kelly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.73 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | — | 4.77 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 20 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 86 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .339 | 3.34 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.90 | 3.31 | 166 | 86 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 84 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 84 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 83 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 82 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 82 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 81 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 81 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 81 |
| Carter Rustad R 2024 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 81 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .417 | 2.87 | 19.5% | 13.2% | 71 | -1.12 | 1.94 | 143 | 81 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.09 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .336 | 4.52 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 124 | -0.57 | 3.05 | 221 | 80 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 80 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 80 |
| Guido Knudson R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.83 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 106 | 80 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 80 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 79 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.06 | 15.1% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.62 | 13.9% | 6.8% | 44 | +0.56 | 4.06 | 101 | 79 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 79 |