Justin Kelly
P New Hampshire Fisher Cats| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | A+TOR | 36 | 0 | 45 | 1.80 | 4.10 | 17.8% | 8.4% | — | K 13.7% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.60 | |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX2 levels | 29 | 0 | 33 | 2.43 | 2.56 | 23.7% | 8.1% | — | K 18.5% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.17 | |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX2 levels | 26 | 0 | 32 | 5.91 | 4.44 | 17.2% | 9.6% | — | K 13.3% · BB 11.2% · FIP 5.72 | |
| 2026 | 27 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2027PROJ | 28 | MLBTOR | — | — | 0 | 4.92 | 4.92 | 17.9% | 10.1% | — | ||
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 29 | MLBTOR | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4.94 | 4.99 | 18.2% | 10.3% | -0.0 | ||
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | 11 | 1 | 21 | 91 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 9% | 1.9 | 15.5% | 14.3% | 1.2% | 4.2% | 6.33 | 5.93 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | Dunedin Blue Jays | 11 | 1 | 21 | 91 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 9% | 1.9 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 6.33 | 4.69 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 70 | 310 | 62 | 21 | 13 | 0% | 1.8 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.99 | 5.97 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 70 | 310 | 62 | 21 | 13 | 0% | 1.8 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 13.2% | 4.2% | 4.99 | 4.64 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | 36 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.7% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.80 | 4.60 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ RAW | Vancouver Canadians | 36 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.8% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 1.80 | 4.10 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 33 | 135 | 32 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 0.9% | 2.43 | 3.17 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 33 | 135 | 32 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 0.9% | 2.43 | 3.17 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 33 | 135 | 32 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 8.1% | 15.6% | 0.7% | 2.43 | 2.56 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 32 | 157 | 27 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.3% | 11.2% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 5.91 | 5.72 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 32 | 157 | 27 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.3% | 11.2% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 5.91 | 5.72 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 32 | 157 | 27 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 5.91 | 4.44 | — |
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.9% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.92 | — |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | TOR | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | TOR | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 4.61 | -0.0 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 158 | 79 | 39 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 4.61 | -0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 141 | 1 | 202 | 884 | 133 | 86 | 34 | 1% | 1.4 | 15.0% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.14 | 5.20 | -0.1 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 140 | 1 | 200 | 875 | 132 | 85 | 34 | 1% | 1.4 | 15.0% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.14 | 5.20 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 26 IPFIP 4.72 → 5.72 (+1.00)K% 16.4% → 13.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 16.41% | — | ×0.810 | 13.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 10.16% | — | ×1.100 | 11.17% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.12% | ÷0.885 | ×1.200 | 4.24% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).
Result: FIP 4.72 → 5.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 6 IPFIP 2.23 → 2.84 (+0.61)K% 20.7% → 15.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 20.69% | — | ×0.740 | 15.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 6.90% | — | ×1.180 | 8.14% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷1.284 | ×1.300 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).
Result: FIP 2.23 → 2.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Vancouver Canadians · 18 IPFIP 2.02 → 2.83 (+0.81)K% 29.7% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 29.73% | — | ×0.770 | 22.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 5.41% | — | ×1.150 | 6.22% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.35% | ÷1.062 | ×1.250 | 1.59% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).
Result: FIP 2.02 → 2.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 16 IPFIP 3.17 → 3.58 (+0.41)K% 16.4% → 13.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 16.39% | — | ×0.810 | 13.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 11.48% | — | ×1.100 | 12.62% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷1.145 | ×1.200 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 129).
Result: FIP 3.17 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Vancouver Canadians · 45 IPFIP 4.09 → 4.60 (+0.50)K% 17.8% → 13.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 17.80% | — | ×0.770 | 13.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 8.38% | — | ×1.150 | 9.63% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.62% | ÷1.253 | ×1.250 | 2.61% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).
Result: FIP 4.09 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Vancouver Canadians · 40 IPFIP 4.20 → 5.23 (+1.03)K% 17.9% → 13.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 17.93% | — | ×0.770 | 13.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 6.52% | — | ×1.150 | 7.50% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.26% | ÷0.952 | ×1.250 | 4.28% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).
Result: FIP 4.20 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADunedin Blue Jays · 30 IPFIP 5.11 → 7.06 (+1.94)K% 23.0% → 17.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 23.02% | — | ×0.740 | 17.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 7.14% | — | ×1.180 | 8.43% |
| HR / BF /BF | 5.56% | ÷0.916 | ×1.300 | 7.88% |
Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).
Result: FIP 5.11 → 7.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ADunedin Blue Jays · 21 IPFIP 4.68 → 5.93 (+1.25)K% 20.9% → 15.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 20.88% | — | ×0.740 | 15.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 12.09% | — | ×1.180 | 14.26% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.30% | ÷1.010 | ×1.300 | 4.24% |
Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).
Result: FIP 4.68 → 5.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).