Justin Kelly — OGILVIE

Justin Kelly P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.04

FIP5.04

K%16.4%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	11	1	21	91	19	11	3	9%	1.9	15.5%	14.3%	1.2%	4.2%	6.33	5.93	—
2021	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	11	1	21	91	19	11	3	9%	1.9	20.9%	12.1%	8.8%	3.3%	6.33	4.69	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	70	310	62	21	13	0%	1.8	15.1%	7.9%	7.2%	5.7%	4.99	5.97	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	70	310	62	21	13	0%	1.8	20.0%	6.8%	13.2%	4.2%	4.99	4.64	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	36	0	45	191	34	16	5	0%	1.2	13.7%	9.6%	4.1%	2.6%	1.80	4.60	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	36	0	45	191	34	16	5	0%	1.2	13.7%	9.6%	4.1%	2.6%	1.80	4.60	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	36	0	45	191	34	16	5	0%	1.2	17.8%	8.4%	9.4%	2.6%	1.80	4.10	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	33	135	32	11	1	0%	1.1	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	0.9%	2.43	3.17	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	33	135	32	11	1	0%	1.1	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	0.9%	2.43	3.17	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	33	135	32	11	1	0%	1.1	23.7%	8.1%	15.6%	0.7%	2.43	2.56	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	32	157	27	15	4	0%	1.2	13.3%	11.2%	2.1%	4.2%	5.91	5.72	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	32	157	27	15	4	0%	1.2	13.3%	11.2%	2.1%	4.2%	5.91	5.72	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	32	157	27	15	4	0%	1.2	17.2%	9.6%	7.6%	2.5%	5.91	4.44	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	TOR	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	16.4%	10.2%	6.2%	3.0%	5.04	5.04	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TOR	19	0	20	84	14	9	3	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.2%	6.8%	3.1%	5.02	5.05	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	TOR	8	0	8	34	6	3	1	0%	1.0	17.0%	10.2%	6.8%	3.1%	5.02	5.05	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	32	5	3	1	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.2%	6.8%	3.1%	5.02	4.67	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	133	80	27	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.2%	6.8%	3.1%	5.02	4.67	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		141	1	202	884	133	86	34	1%	1.4	15.0%	9.7%	5.4%	3.9%	4.14	5.20	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	1	200	875	132	85	34	1%	1.4	15.0%	9.7%	5.4%	3.9%	4.14	5.20	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	16.4%	10.2%	3.0%	—	5.05	17.0%	6.8%	20	+0.01	—	—	—
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	88
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	87
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	86
Adrian Garza R 2015 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	14.9%	10.5%	4.2%	.360	4.17	13.1%	6.5%	84	-1.30	3.94	229	85
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	84
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	84
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Tucker Healy R 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	15.6%	11.5%	2.0%	.321	5.20	19.2%	8.7%	24	+0.87	2.82	174	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	82
Michael Blazek R 2016 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	17.9%	11.9%	3.3%	.336	4.43	17.5%	8.0%	124	-0.49	2.99	221	82
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	82
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	82
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	82
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	82
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	82
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	82
Jonathan Aro R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	27	SU	3.97	17.3%	10.9%	1.7%	.280	3.28	12.7%	9.3%	64	-0.69	2.57	323	81