Braden Bristo
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+0.2
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
xFIP6.14
SIERA5.57
K%23.3%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%13.3%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5555
CT+1.0
FB+0.8
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | 10 | 0 | 15 | 71 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 16.3% | 10.6% | 2.0% | 6.00 | 4.15 | +0.1 |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 6 | 0 | 11 | 52 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 14.2% | 15.9% | 2.6% | 3.97 | 5.34 | -0.1 |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Tampa Tarpons | 35 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 63 | 24 | 3 | 20.1% | 12.0% | 1.8% | 2.14 | 3.89 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Trenton Thunder | 38 | 0 | 66 | 263 | 84 | 20 | 5 | 25.0% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 2.60 | 3.40 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 38 | 1 | 50 | 218 | 61 | 29 | 7 | 24.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 41 | 1 | 53 | 243 | 64 | 30 | 6 | 23.2% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 47 | 1 | 57 | 272 | 68 | 36 | 14 | 22.9% | 14.3% | 6.8% | 7.06 | 6.73 | -1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | DET | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 46 | 20 | 6 | 23.3% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | DET | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | DET | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 22.8% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | DET | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 39 | 18 | 6 | 22.4% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | DET | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 36 | 17 | 6 | 22.1% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.85 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | DET | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 33 | 16 | 6 | 21.6% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 4.97 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 215 | 3 | 307 | 1352 | 304 | 167 | 45 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 3.3% | 4.28 | 4.60 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 140 | 2 | 200 | 880 | 198 | 109 | 29 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 3.3% | 4.28 | 4.60 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Braden Bristo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 23.3% | 10.1% | 3.3% | — | 4.72 | 22.8% | 12.5% | 129 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 87 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 85 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 82 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 81 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 81 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.39 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.70 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.31 | 2.80 | 410 | 79 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 78 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 78 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 77 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 77 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 77 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 77 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 76 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 76 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 76 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 75 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.09 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .278 | 3.53 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.56 | 2.31 | 403 | 75 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 75 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .266 | 3.49 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 29 | -0.20 | 3.46 | 295 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.