Braden Bristo — OGILVIE

Braden Bristo P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%22.4%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

CT+1.0

FB+0.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	10	0	15	71	17	6	1	0%	1.5	16.3%	10.6%	5.7%	2.0%	6.00	4.15	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	10	0	15	71	17	6	1	0%	1.5	23.9%	8.5%	15.5%	1.4%	6.00	2.90	—
2017	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	6	0	11	52	10	7	1	0%	1.9	14.2%	15.9%	-1.7%	2.6%	3.97	5.36	—
2017	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	6	0	11	52	10	7	1	0%	1.9	19.2%	13.5%	5.8%	1.9%	3.97	4.34	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	55	233	63	24	3	0%	1.6	20.1%	12.0%	8.1%	1.8%	2.14	3.93	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	55	233	63	24	3	0%	1.6	27.0%	10.3%	16.7%	1.3%	2.14	2.83	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	66	263	84	20	5	0%	1.7	25.0%	8.6%	16.4%	2.4%	2.60	3.41	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	66	263	84	20	5	0%	1.7	31.9%	7.6%	24.3%	1.9%	2.60	2.45	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	38	1	50	218	61	29	7	3%	1.3	24.6%	14.0%	10.7%	3.1%	4.86	4.48	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	38	1	50	218	61	29	7	3%	1.3	28.0%	13.3%	14.7%	3.2%	4.86	4.22	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	41	1	53	243	64	30	6	2%	1.3	23.2%	13.0%	10.2%	2.7%	4.56	4.27	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	41	1	53	243	64	30	6	2%	1.3	26.3%	12.3%	14.0%	2.5%	4.56	3.85	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	57	272	68	36	14	2%	1.2	21.6%	12.3%	9.3%	7.1%	7.06	6.71	-1.4
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	57	272	68	36	14	2%	1.2	21.6%	12.3%	9.3%	7.1%	7.06	6.71	-1.4
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	57	272	68	36	14	2%	1.2	25.0%	13.2%	11.8%	5.1%	7.06	5.79	-0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	7	30	5	3	0	0%	2.3	16.7%	10.0%	6.7%	0.0%	2.57	2.96	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	DET	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	22.4%	10.6%	11.8%	3.3%	4.74	4.74	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	DET	29	0	30	128	28	14	5	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	3.5%	4.83	4.92	-0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	DET	10	0	11	46	10	5	2	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	3.5%	4.83	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	18	77	15	8	2	0%	1.3	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	2.2%	3.96	3.93	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		150	0	200	849	165	88	22	0%	1.3	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	2.2%	3.96	3.93	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		215	3	307	1352	300	162	46	1%	1.4	22.2%	12.0%	10.3%	3.4%	4.28	4.60	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	2	200	880	195	105	30	1%	1.4	22.2%	12.0%	10.3%	3.4%	4.28	4.60	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braden Bristo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	22.4%	10.6%	3.3%	—	4.92	22.1%	11.2%	30	+0.18	—	—	—
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	88
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	85
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	84
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	83
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	79
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	79
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	78
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	77
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	77
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	77
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	76
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	76
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	76
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	75
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	74
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	74
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	74
Pedro Beato R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.1%	6.4%	2.9%	.266	3.49	16.8%	9.3%	29	-0.22	3.47	295	74
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	73
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	22.3%	10.7%	1.32	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33