Tommy McCollum
P
Montgomery Biscuits
+0.3
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 260 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.26
FIP4.26
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%12.8%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL6060
CMD5555
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 9 | 0 | 13 | 65 | 15 | 15 | 1 | 17.1% | 27.2% | 2.0% | 6.39 | 6.21 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 23 | 0 | 31 | 118 | 52 | 15 | 3 | 32.6% | 15.0% | 3.3% | 1.45 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 44 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 67 | 32 | 0 | 30.2% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 2.64 | 2.90 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 42 | 0 | 46 | 210 | 50 | 26 | 4 | 19.3% | 13.6% | 2.0% | 5.09 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 47 | 0 | 56 | 231 | 59 | 15 | 3 | 20.9% | 6.5% | 1.9% | 3.07 | 3.19 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 4 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TB | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | TB | — | — | 42 | 179 | 38 | 14 | 4 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 4.40 | 3.75 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 22.2% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TB | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 22.2% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TB | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | TB | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | TB | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | TB | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 21.3% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | TB | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 169 | 0 | 194 | 829 | 197 | 114 | 14 | 23.8% | 13.8% | 1.7% | 3.49 | 3.75 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 175 | 0 | 200 | 856 | 203 | 118 | 14 | 23.8% | 13.8% | 1.7% | 3.49 | 3.75 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tommy McCollum (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.15 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 2.7% | — | 4.25 | 22.2% | 13.5% | 109 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 89 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .339 | 3.39 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.73 | 3.11 | 166 | 86 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 84 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.37 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .237 | 2.63 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.74 | 2.40 | 362 | 84 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .276 | 6.26 | 27.5% | 9.3% | 50 | +2.97 | 2.80 | 155 | 84 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 84 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 84 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 83 |
| Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 83 |
| Jack Dallas R 2025 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.58 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 169 | 83 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 83 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 82 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 82 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 82 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2028 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 82 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 82 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.60 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 2.0% | .340 | 3.98 | 21.8% | 13.6% | 94 | +0.38 | 2.68 | 177 | 81 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 81 |
| Stephen Fife R 2028 · 3.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.10 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.0% | .329 | 3.65 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 152 | +0.55 | 3.10 | 179 | 81 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.