Tommy McCollum — OGILVIE

Tommy McCollum P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 260 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 98

ERA4.28

FIP4.28

K%21.0%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

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CMD5555

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	9	0	13	65	15	15	1	0%	1.4	17.1%	27.2%	-10.2%	2.0%	6.39	6.21	—
2021	22	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	9	0	13	65	15	15	1	0%	1.4	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	1.5%	6.39	5.31	—
2022	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	23	0	31	118	52	15	3	0%	1.3	32.6%	15.0%	17.6%	3.3%	1.45	4.06	—
2022	23	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	23	0	31	118	52	15	3	0%	1.3	44.1%	12.7%	31.4%	2.5%	1.45	2.45	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	44	185	67	32	0	0%	1.0	30.2%	18.5%	11.7%	0.0%	2.64	2.90	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	44	185	67	32	0	0%	1.0	30.2%	18.5%	11.7%	0.0%	2.64	2.90	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	44	185	67	32	0	0%	1.0	36.2%	17.3%	18.9%	0.0%	2.64	2.24	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	42	0	46	210	50	26	4	0%	1.1	19.3%	13.6%	5.7%	2.0%	5.09	4.30	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	42	0	46	210	50	26	4	0%	1.1	19.3%	13.6%	5.7%	2.0%	5.09	4.30	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	42	0	46	210	50	26	4	0%	1.1	23.8%	12.4%	11.4%	1.9%	5.09	3.75	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	0	56	231	59	15	3	0%	1.2	20.9%	6.5%	14.4%	1.9%	3.07	3.18	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	0	56	231	59	15	3	0%	1.2	20.9%	6.5%	14.4%	1.9%	3.07	3.18	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	47	0	56	231	59	15	3	0%	1.2	25.5%	6.5%	19.0%	1.3%	3.07	2.49	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	39	0	50	229	59	21	13	0%	1.3	20.9%	10.1%	10.8%	6.8%	6.89	6.35	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	39	0	50	229	59	21	13	0%	1.3	20.9%	10.1%	10.8%	6.8%	6.89	6.35	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	TB	39	0	50	229	59	21	13	0%	1.3	25.8%	9.2%	16.6%	5.7%	6.89	5.20	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	TB	5	0	5	23	5	2	1	0%	1.1	21.0%	8.8%	12.3%	2.7%	4.28	4.28	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	55	252	64	23	14	—	—	25.3%	9.1%	16.2%	5.4%	6.63	6.15	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TB	55	0	58	244	52	22	7	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.0%	12.2%	2.8%	4.33	4.37	+0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	TB	52	0	55	233	49	21	7	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.2%	11.9%	3.0%	4.42	4.49	+0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	TB	21	0	22	93	20	8	3	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.0%	12.2%	2.8%	4.33	4.37	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	TB	30	0	31	131	28	12	4	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.2%	11.9%	3.0%	4.42	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	52	221	47	20	6	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	2.9%	4.38	4.06	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	76	23	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	2.9%	4.38	4.06	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		204	0	239	1038	242	136	29	0%	1.2	23.3%	13.1%	10.2%	2.8%	4.14	4.35	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		170	0	200	867	202	114	25	0%	1.2	23.3%	13.1%	10.2%	2.8%	4.14	4.35	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tommy McCollum (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	21.0%	8.8%	2.7%	—	4.43	21.1%	12.0%	113	+0.15	—	—	—
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	91
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	90
Ryan Kelly R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	20.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.241	3.21	20.8%	14.2%	43	-0.31	2.49	131	89
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	89
Blake Treinen R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	27	SU	3.10	23.2%	9.3%	1.4%	.314	2.62	26.4%	19.2%	223	-0.48	1.53	547	88
Justin De Fratus R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	27	SU	3.84	18.8%	8.3%	2.3%	.325	4.61	12.4%	6.9%	279	+0.77	3.84	500	88
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	87
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	87
Blake Smith R 2015 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.59	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.42	3.17	124	87
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	87
Cole Sulser R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	22.6%	10.2%	1.9%	.321	2.85	28.2%	18.4%	140	-0.67	2.39	547	86
Andrew Robinson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	17.6%	6.3%	2.5%	.246	3.64	22.7%	14.4%	97	-0.13	3.19	160	86
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	86
Bryan Shaw R 2015 · 3.90 FIP	27	SU	3.90	20.4%	6.8%	3.0%	.276	3.54	23.3%	15.0%	198	-0.36	2.78	596	86
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	85
Pedro Beato R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	17.4%	7.5%	1.6%	.276	3.93	19.0%	11.2%	192	+0.46	3.47	295	85
Chaz Roe R 2015 · 3.14 FIP	28	SU	3.14	20.7%	8.4%	1.3%	.300	2.73	28.4%	20.7%	140	-0.41	1.72	257	85
Jhan Mariñez R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	27	SU	3.16	18.6%	6.7%	1.4%	.294	4.02	19.0%	10.6%	106	+0.86	3.16	253	85
Conor Mullee R 2015 · 3.26 FIP	27	SU	3.26	17.7%	7.2%	1.4%	.290	2.64	24.2%	16.3%	55	-0.62	2.17	110	85
Steve Geltz R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	27	SU	3.95	22.7%	8.6%	3.1%	.209	4.90	22.2%	12.0%	89	+0.95	3.57	157	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	21.1%	9.0%	1.09	4.34
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79