Tommy McCollum

P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 260 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AAPHI	42	46	5.09	3.75	23.8%	12.4%	—	K 19.3% · BB 13.6% · FIP 4.30
2025	26	MIX3 levels	47	56	3.07	2.49	25.5%	6.5%	—	K 20.9% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.18
2026	27	AATB	39	50	6.89	5.40	25.8%	9.2%	—	K 20.9% · BB 10.1% · FIP 6.35
2027PROJ	28	MLBTB	1	1	4.80	4.80	20.9%	8.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBTB	14	15	4.83	4.88	20.9%	8.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBTB	19	20	4.92	5.01	20.8%	9.2%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control60Command55

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsNeil Wagner (age 29) · Tyler Walker (age 28) · Matt Ramsey (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%20.9%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	9	0	13	65	15	15	1	0%	1.4	17.1%	27.2%	-10.2%	2.0%	6.39	6.21	—
2021	22	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	9	0	13	65	15	15	1	0%	1.4	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	1.5%	6.39	5.31	—
2022	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	23	0	31	118	52	15	3	0%	1.3	32.6%	15.0%	17.6%	3.3%	1.45	4.06	—
2022	23	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	23	0	31	118	52	15	3	0%	1.3	44.1%	12.7%	31.4%	2.5%	1.45	2.45	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	44	185	67	32	0	0%	1.0	30.2%	18.5%	11.7%	0.0%	2.64	2.90	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	44	185	67	32	0	0%	1.0	36.2%	17.3%	18.9%	0.0%	2.64	2.24	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	42	0	46	210	50	26	4	0%	1.1	19.3%	13.6%	5.7%	2.0%	5.09	4.30	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	42	0	46	210	50	26	4	0%	1.1	19.3%	13.6%	5.7%	2.0%	5.09	4.30	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	42	0	46	210	50	26	4	0%	1.1	23.8%	12.4%	11.4%	1.9%	5.09	3.75	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	0	56	231	59	15	3	0%	1.2	20.9%	6.5%	14.4%	1.9%	3.07	3.18	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	0	56	231	59	15	3	0%	1.2	20.9%	6.5%	14.4%	1.9%	3.07	3.18	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	47	0	56	231	59	15	3	0%	1.2	25.5%	6.5%	19.0%	1.3%	3.07	2.49	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	39	0	50	229	59	21	13	0%	1.3	20.9%	10.1%	10.8%	6.8%	6.89	6.35	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	39	0	50	229	59	21	13	0%	1.3	20.9%	10.1%	10.8%	6.8%	6.89	6.35	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	39	0	50	229	59	21	13	0%	1.3	25.8%	9.2%	16.6%	5.7%	6.89	5.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TB	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	3.6%	4.80	4.80	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TB	45	0	47	199	42	18	7	0%	1.0	20.9%	8.8%	12.1%	3.7%	4.83	4.88	-0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	TB	38	0	40	168	35	15	7	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.2%	11.6%	3.9%	4.92	5.01	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	TB	14	0	15	63	13	6	2	0%	1.1	20.9%	8.8%	12.1%	3.7%	4.83	4.88	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	TB	19	0	20	84	18	8	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.2%	11.6%	3.9%	4.92	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	0	35	149	31	13	6	0%	1.0	20.8%	9.0%	11.8%	3.8%	4.88	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	74	34	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.0%	11.8%	3.8%	4.88	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		204	0	239	1038	242	136	29	0%	1.2	23.3%	13.1%	10.2%	2.8%	4.14	4.35	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		170	0	200	867	202	114	25	0%	1.2	23.3%	13.1%	10.2%	2.8%	4.14	4.35	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 50 IPFIP 5.20 → 6.35 (+1.15)K% 25.8% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.76%	—	×0.810	20.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.17%	—	×1.100	10.09%
HR / BF /BF	5.68%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.81%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.20 → 6.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 45 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.18 (+0.63)K% 25.8% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.81%	—	×0.810	20.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.91%	—	×1.100	6.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.036	×1.200	1.87%

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 8 IPFIP 1.13 → 1.90 (+0.77)K% 33.3% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.770	25.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.150	7.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.045	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 1.13 → 1.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 46 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.30 (+0.60)K% 23.8% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.810	19.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.38%	—	×1.100	13.62%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷1.137	×1.200	2.01%

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 35 IPFIP 1.83 → 2.90 (+1.07)K% 39.2% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.16%	—	×0.770	30.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.08%	—	×1.150	18.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.858	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.83 → 2.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAReading Fightin Phils · 9 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.29 (+0.69)K% 26.2% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.19%	—	×0.810	21.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.43%	—	×1.100	23.57%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.050	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AClearwater Threshers · 31 IPFIP 2.38 → 4.06 (+1.68)K% 44.1% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.07%	—	×0.740	32.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.71%	—	×1.180	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.54%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.31%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AClearwater Threshers · 13 IPFIP 4.92 → 6.21 (+1.29)K% 23.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.740	17.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.08%	—	×1.180	27.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷0.993	×1.300	2.01%

Result: FIP 4.92 → 6.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tommy McCollum (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	20.9%	8.5%	3.6%	—	4.94	20.8%	11.9%	87	+0.14	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	90
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	88
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	86
J.J. Putz R 2005 · 4.36 FIP	28	SU	4.36	17.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.270	2.24	31.4%	25.1%	196	-2.12	1.43	563	86
A.J. Schugel R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	20.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	6.37	17.6%	10.6%	13	+2.36	2.80	299	85
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	85
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	85
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	85
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	84
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	84
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	84
Shawn Camp R 2004 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	17.8%	5.2%	3.5%	.305	3.88	15.5%	10.5%	164	-0.30	2.79	589	84
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	84
Taylor Williams R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	28	SU	4.15	21.9%	8.4%	3.3%	.275	3.85	22.1%	12.1%	103	-0.30	2.51	309	83
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	82
Ryan Middendorf R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	19.1%	9.0%	4.0%	.293	4.41	12.7%	-1.1%	34	-0.43	1.27	164	82
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	20.9%	8.8%	1.45	4.84
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*