Nick Garcia

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	42	0	57	3.30	3.78	23.3%	13.8%	—	K 19.3% · BB 13.6% · FIP 4.14
2025	26	AASF	14	0	16	8.04	5.78	20.5%	15.1%	—	K 16.6% · BB 16.6% · FIP 6.08
2026	27	MIX2 levels	43	1	59	2.44	2.86	28.2%	9.8%	—	K 24.4% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.20
2027PROJ	28	MLBSEA	3	0	3	4.30	4.30	23.1%	10.3%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBSEA	9	0	9	4.38	4.43	22.9%	10.4%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsColeman Huntley III (age 28) · Luis Santos (age 28) · Edwin Quirarte (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.30

FIP4.30

K%23.1%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP30

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	21	13	75	335	83	35	9	62%	3.6	18.3%	12.3%	6.0%	2.7%	4.22	4.59	—
2021	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	21	13	75	335	83	35	9	62%	3.6	24.8%	10.4%	14.3%	2.7%	4.22	3.85	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	23	113	467	109	46	15	92%	4.5	18.0%	11.3%	6.6%	3.2%	3.66	4.75	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	23	113	467	109	46	15	92%	4.5	23.3%	9.9%	13.5%	3.2%	3.66	4.12	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	26	18	94	439	83	38	20	69%	3.6	15.3%	9.5%	5.8%	5.3%	7.35	5.90	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	26	18	94	439	83	38	20	69%	3.6	18.9%	8.7%	10.3%	4.6%	7.35	5.30	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	57	253	59	35	4	0%	1.4	19.3%	13.6%	5.7%	1.7%	3.30	4.14	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	57	253	59	35	4	0%	1.4	19.3%	13.6%	5.7%	1.7%	3.30	4.14	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	57	253	59	35	4	0%	1.4	23.3%	13.8%	9.5%	1.6%	3.30	3.78	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	14	0	16	73	15	11	3	0%	1.1	16.6%	16.6%	0.1%	4.2%	8.04	6.08	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	14	0	16	73	15	11	3	0%	1.1	16.6%	16.6%	0.1%	4.2%	8.04	6.08	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	14	0	16	73	15	11	3	0%	1.1	20.5%	15.1%	5.5%	4.1%	8.04	5.78	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	59	245	69	24	4	2%	1.4	24.4%	8.9%	15.5%	1.9%	2.44	3.20	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	59	245	69	24	4	2%	1.4	24.4%	8.9%	15.5%	1.9%	2.44	3.20	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	1	59	245	69	24	4	2%	1.4	28.2%	9.8%	18.4%	1.6%	2.44	2.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SEA	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	2.7%	4.30	4.30	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	24	0	25	107	25	11	3	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	2.9%	4.38	4.43	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	2.9%	4.38	4.43	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	39	9	4	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	2.9%	4.38	4.05	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	86	21	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	2.9%	4.38	4.05	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		171	55	414	1812	333	204	59	32%	2.4	18.4%	11.3%	7.1%	3.2%	4.54	4.76	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	27	200	875	161	99	28	32%	2.4	18.4%	11.3%	7.1%	3.2%	4.54	4.76	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 56 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.20 (+0.30)K% 28.3% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.33%	—	×0.860	24.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.87%	—	×0.900	8.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.89%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 16 IPFIP 5.53 → 6.08 (+0.55)K% 20.5% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.55%	—	×0.810	16.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.07%	—	×1.100	16.58%
HR / BF /BF	4.11%	÷1.183	×1.200	4.17%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 5.53 → 6.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 35 IPFIP 1.99 → 2.55 (+0.57)K% 27.8% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.810	22.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.72%	—	×1.100	10.69%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.062	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.99 → 2.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 22 IPFIP 6.08 → 6.22 (+0.14)K% 17.4% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.43%	—	×0.860	14.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.27%	—	×0.900	17.34%
HR / BF /BF	3.67%	÷1.010	×1.100	4.00%

Result: FIP 6.08 → 6.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAHartford Yard Goats · 94 IPFIP 5.10 → 5.90 (+0.80)K% 18.9% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.91%	—	×0.810	15.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.66%	—	×1.100	9.52%
HR / BF /BF	4.56%	÷1.040	×1.200	5.25%

Result: FIP 5.10 → 5.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 113 IPFIP 4.14 → 4.75 (+0.61)K% 23.3% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.34%	—	×0.770	17.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.85%	—	×1.150	11.33%
HR / BF /BF	3.21%	÷1.273	×1.250	3.15%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 155).

Result: FIP 4.14 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ABradenton Marauders · 75 IPFIP 3.81 → 4.59 (+0.78)K% 24.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.78%	—	×0.740	18.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.45%	—	×1.180	12.33%
HR / BF /BF	2.69%	÷1.302	×1.300	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 160).

Result: FIP 3.81 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	23.1%	10.3%	2.7%	—	4.43	22.9%	12.5%	25	+0.13	—	—	—
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	79
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	75
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	75
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	75
Andrew Robinson R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	28	SU	3.19	22.2%	7.9%	1.8%	.247	4.32	23.4%	14.6%	39	+1.13	3.19	160	75
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	74
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	22.7%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.02	25.4%	17.1%	87	-0.43	2.32	186	74
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	74
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	74
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	73
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	72
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	71
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	71
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	71
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	71
Peter Tago R 2021 · 3.91 FIP	29	SU	3.91	21.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	207	71
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	71
Nick Merkel R 2024 · 3.15 FIP	26	SU	3.15	21.3%	10.6%	0.9%	.268	3.89	19.8%	9.7%	50	+0.74	3.15	205	71
Dayan Díaz R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	25.1%	8.7%	2.5%	.358	3.96	29.4%	19.3%	16	+0.51	3.08	205	71
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	23.0%	10.3%	1.07	4.34
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*