Nick Merkel — OGILVIE

Nick Merkel P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 28 RHP 6'7" / 255 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.32

FIP4.32

K%21.8%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	24	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Blue	3	3	8	31	4	2	0	100%	2.6	12.9%	6.5%	6.5%	0.0%	3.52	2.83	—
2022	24	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers Blue	3	3	8	31	4	2	0	100%	2.6	12.9%	6.5%	6.5%	0.0%	3.52	2.84	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	76	312	94	19	9	0%	2.2	22.8%	7.1%	15.7%	3.5%	3.79	3.99	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	76	312	94	19	9	0%	2.2	22.8%	7.1%	15.7%	3.5%	3.79	3.99	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	76	312	94	19	9	0%	2.2	30.1%	6.1%	24.0%	2.9%	3.79	2.92	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	40	3	79	331	87	32	3	8%	2.0	21.3%	10.6%	10.7%	0.9%	3.43	3.15	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	40	3	79	331	87	32	3	8%	2.0	21.3%	10.6%	10.7%	0.9%	3.43	3.15	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	40	3	79	331	87	32	3	8%	2.0	26.3%	9.7%	16.6%	0.9%	3.43	2.60	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	27	114	30	12	1	0%	1.3	21.8%	12.2%	9.5%	0.9%	3.04	3.33	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	27	114	30	12	1	0%	1.3	21.8%	12.2%	9.5%	0.9%	3.04	3.33	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	27	114	30	12	1	0%	1.3	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	0.9%	3.04	2.69	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	20	0	25	109	24	8	3	0%	1.3	17.8%	8.1%	9.8%	3.3%	6.04	4.43	—
YTD	28	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	20	0	25	109	24	8	3	0%	1.3	17.8%	8.1%	9.8%	3.3%	6.04	4.43	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	MIL	20	0	25	109	24	8	3	0%	1.3	22.0%	7.3%	14.7%	2.8%	6.04	3.68	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIL	25	0	26	109	24	11	3	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.5%	11.2%	2.7%	4.40	4.45	+0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIL	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.5%	11.2%	2.7%	4.40	4.45	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.5%	11.2%	2.7%	4.40	4.07	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	99	25	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.5%	11.2%	2.7%	4.40	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		117	6	214	897	190	82	19	5%	1.8	21.2%	9.1%	12.0%	2.1%	3.82	3.61	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	6	200	837	177	76	17	5%	1.8	21.2%	9.1%	12.0%	2.1%	3.82	3.61	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Merkel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	21.8%	10.4%	2.5%	—	4.45	21.8%	11.2%	26	+0.13	—	—	—
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	84
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	84
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	83
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	83
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	83
Andrew Robinson R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	28	SU	3.19	22.2%	7.9%	1.8%	.247	4.32	23.4%	14.6%	39	+1.13	3.19	160	83
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	82
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	82
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	82
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	82
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	82
Michael Mariot R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	22.6%	9.0%	2.1%	.327	4.79	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.28	2.40	676	82
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	82
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	82
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	81
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	21.9%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.09	24.6%	16.4%	87	-0.42	2.32	186	81
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	81
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	21.8%	10.5%	1.00	4.36
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68