Jose Montero
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
+0.5
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 193 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.8 · 2030
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.0%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%8.6%
IP103
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.8peak
2030
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Reds | 11 | 10 | 40 | 173 | 53 | 11 | 3 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 3.40 | 3.74 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 13 | 4 | 42 | 186 | 44 | 10 | 4 | 16.8% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 4.04 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 25 | 16 | 96 | 401 | 87 | 44 | 4 | 16.1% | 12.9% | 1.2% | 3.47 | 4.06 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 23 | 23 | 103 | 445 | 87 | 43 | 5 | 15.1% | 11.1% | 1.2% | 3.93 | 3.91 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 2 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 103 | 435 | 83 | 45 | 11 | 19.0% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 107 | 455 | 84 | 47 | 11 | 18.4% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 4.69 | 4.35 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 122 | 513 | 104 | 50 | 13 | 20.2% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 4.40 | 4.34 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 25 | 25 | 135 | 570 | 119 | 52 | 14 | 20.8% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 4.30 | 4.24 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 26 | 142 | 600 | 127 | 55 | 15 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 4.25 | 4.22 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 26 | 145 | 612 | 129 | 56 | 15 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 4.24 | 4.23 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 26 | 145 | 611 | 129 | 56 | 16 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.26 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 26 | 142 | 597 | 125 | 55 | 16 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.28 | 4.30 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 25 | 25 | 137 | 580 | 120 | 54 | 15 | 20.8% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 4.37 | +1.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 24 | 24 | 132 | 559 | 115 | 53 | 15 | 20.5% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.44 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 109 | 52 | 15 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 122 | 513 | 102 | 50 | 15 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 21 | 21 | 115 | 487 | 95 | 49 | 15 | 19.6% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 88 | 47 | 14 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.86 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 102 | 429 | 81 | 45 | 14 | 18.8% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.91 | 4.99 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 74 | 54 | 285 | 1225 | 200 | 129 | 21 | 16.3% | 10.5% | 1.7% | 3.79 | 3.99 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 38 | 200 | 860 | 140 | 91 | 15 | 16.3% | 10.5% | 1.7% | 3.79 | 3.99 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Montero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 19.0% | 10.5% | 2.4% | — | 4.26 | 20.7% | 11.4% | 399 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 199 | 93 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .251 | 4.78 | 18.8% | 6.8% | 146 | +0.51 | 4.27 | 238 | 92 |
| Jeff Thompson R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 15.2% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.40 | 15.8% | 1.0% | 202 | -0.11 | 3.67 | 321 | 92 |
| Brett Daniels R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.47 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 152 | +0.52 | 3.95 | 270 | 92 |
| Wil Crowe R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.65 | 15.0% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .278 | 4.65 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 266 | +0.00 | 4.00 | 518 | 92 |
| Linder Castro R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .327 | 4.38 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 111 | -0.25 | 4.25 | 279 | 92 |
| Tyler Woessner R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.4% | 11.8% | 1.6% | .307 | 5.37 | 18.0% | 3.0% | 76 | +1.28 | 4.09 | 197 | 92 |
| Angel Ventura R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 17.9% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .285 | 4.64 | 14.8% | 4.8% | 153 | +0.30 | 3.44 | 393 | 92 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 1.8% | .311 | 3.86 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 203 | -0.22 | 3.77 | 295 | 91 |
| Chase Cohen R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.69 | 15.8% | 13.0% | 2.3% | .317 | 4.28 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 85 | -0.41 | 3.54 | 263 | 91 |
| Alex Royalty R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.33 | 14.9% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .302 | 4.50 | 17.7% | 8.6% | 40 | +0.17 | 4.33 | 151 | 91 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.2% | .290 | 4.25 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.26 | 3.75 | 283 | 91 |
| Daniel Blair R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 91 |
| Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.97 | 16.1% | 3.0% | 202 | +0.17 | 4.68 | 326 | 90 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .299 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 159 | -0.07 | 3.48 | 383 | 90 |
| Tony Dibrell R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.67 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 58 | +1.05 | 4.17 | 347 | 90 |
| Tyler Wehrle R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.08 | 15.8% | 10.5% | 1.8% | .300 | 5.43 | 15.1% | 3.4% | 60 | +1.35 | 4.08 | 141 | 90 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .263 | 4.85 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.23 | 3.77 | 350 | 90 |
| Adam Hill R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.99 | 15.6% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 6.14 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 91 | +1.15 | 4.99 | 213 | 90 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.73 | 3.99 | 188 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.7 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.7 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.6 | $15M | +$13M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.5 | $15M | +$12M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.3 | $13M | +$9M |
| Totals | $12M | $90M | +$78M | ||