Jose Montero
P
Dayton Dragons
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 193 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.1 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION69 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 118
ERA5.23
FIP5.23
K%13.9%
BB%12.8%
K-BB%1.1%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Reds | 11 | 10 | 40 | 173 | 53 | 11 | 3 | 91% | 3.6 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 3.40 | 3.77 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Reds | 11 | 10 | 40 | 173 | 53 | 11 | 3 | 91% | 3.6 | 30.6% | 6.4% | 24.3% | 1.7% | 3.40 | 2.24 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 4 | 42 | 186 | 44 | 10 | 4 | 31% | 3.3 | 16.8% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.04 | 4.22 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 4 | 42 | 186 | 44 | 10 | 4 | 31% | 3.3 | 23.7% | 5.4% | 18.3% | 2.2% | 4.04 | 2.96 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 25 | 16 | 96 | 401 | 87 | 44 | 4 | 64% | 3.8 | 16.1% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 3.47 | 4.00 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 25 | 16 | 96 | 401 | 87 | 44 | 4 | 64% | 3.8 | 21.7% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 1.0% | 3.47 | 3.20 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 23 | 23 | 103 | 445 | 87 | 43 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 15.1% | 11.1% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 3.93 | 3.85 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 23 | 23 | 103 | 445 | 87 | 43 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 1.1% | 3.93 | 3.29 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 18 | 14 | 69 | 297 | 56 | 33 | 11 | 78% | 3.8 | 14.7% | 12.5% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 4.72 | 5.93 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 38 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 13.9% | 12.8% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 5.23 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.9% | 12.8% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 5.27 | 5.27 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 133 | 571 | 94 | 68 | 18 | — | — | 16.5% | 11.9% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 4.97 | 5.59 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 13.9% | 12.8% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 5.27 | 4.89 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 50 | 37 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.0% | 11.9% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 5.03 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 13 | 75 | 316 | 54 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.2% | 11.4% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 4.88 | 4.81 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 75 | 316 | 56 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 4.80 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 74 | 311 | 56 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.9% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 4.79 | 4.79 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 6 | 6 | 32 | 135 | 22 | 16 | 3 | 100% | 5.3 | 16.0% | 11.9% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 5.07 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 9 | 9 | 50 | 211 | 36 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.2% | 11.4% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 4.92 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 44 | 28 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 4.84 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 48 | 30 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.9% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 4.83 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 35 | 35 | 204 | 861 | 150 | 98 | 22 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 4.89 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 147 | 96 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 4.89 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 90 | 67 | 350 | 1502 | 242 | 164 | 33 | 74% | 3.9 | 16.1% | 10.9% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 3.91 | 4.34 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 38 | 200 | 859 | 139 | 94 | 19 | 74% | 3.9 | 16.1% | 10.9% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 3.91 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Montero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.23 | 13.9% | 12.8% | 2.4% | — | 4.84 | 17.0% | 5.5% | 224 | -0.39 | — | — | — |
| Brooks Auger R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .299 | 3.81 | 26.3% | 14.4% | 46 | -1.19 | 3.81 | 138 | 91 |
| Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 88 |
| Casey Steward R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 191 | 86 |
| Ben Hansen R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.86 | 12.5% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .372 | 4.29 | 21.5% | 13.2% | 88 | -0.57 | 4.29 | 149 | 86 |
| Tyler Schlaffer R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.5% | 13.3% | 3.1% | .298 | 4.24 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 154 | -1.01 | 4.01 | 363 | 85 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.25 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .251 | 4.81 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.56 | 3.93 | 268 | 85 |
| Sam Whiting R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.17 | 14.6% | 12.3% | 1.4% | .320 | 5.68 | 15.0% | -0.1% | 80 | +1.51 | 4.17 | 152 | 84 |
| Carlson Reed R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 83 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 83 |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.43 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .285 | 7.34 | 19.6% | 3.2% | 26 | +2.91 | 4.43 | 225 | 83 |
| Tommy Mace R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.24 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .261 | 5.13 | 14.7% | 2.7% | 376 | -0.11 | 4.93 | 501 | 83 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 83 |
| Chase Cohen R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 15.8% | 13.0% | 2.3% | .317 | 4.66 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 85 | -0.01 | 3.68 | 263 | 82 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 82 |
| Bradley Brehmer R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.40 | 14.6% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .349 | 2.88 | 21.3% | 13.7% | 82 | -1.52 | 2.76 | 153 | 82 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.91 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.03 | 15.9% | 0.6% | 115 | +0.12 | 4.62 | 195 | 82 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.39 | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 137 | 82 |
| Michael Ross R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.05 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 3.8% | .275 | 5.83 | 12.5% | 3.6% | 64 | +0.78 | 5.05 | 146 | 82 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 82 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.60 | 13.5% | 8.4% | 2.9% | .312 | 4.38 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 247 | -0.22 | 4.19 | 433 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 74 | 16.6% | 11.7% | 0.95 | 4.94 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |