Jose Montero — OGILVIE

Jose Montero P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 193 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION101 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%13.9%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%1.0%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	11	10	40	173	53	11	3	91%	3.6	20.8%	7.9%	12.9%	2.5%	3.40	3.72	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	11	10	40	173	53	11	3	91%	3.6	30.6%	6.4%	24.3%	1.7%	3.40	2.24	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	4	42	186	44	10	4	31%	3.3	16.8%	6.3%	10.5%	3.3%	4.04	4.32	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	4	42	186	44	10	4	31%	3.3	16.8%	6.3%	10.5%	3.3%	4.04	4.32	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	4	42	186	44	10	4	31%	3.3	23.7%	5.4%	18.3%	2.2%	4.04	2.96	—
2024	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	16	96	401	87	44	4	64%	3.8	16.1%	12.9%	3.1%	1.2%	3.47	4.04	—
2024	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	16	96	401	87	44	4	64%	3.8	16.1%	12.9%	3.1%	1.2%	3.47	4.04	—
2024	21	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	25	16	96	401	87	44	4	64%	3.8	21.7%	11.0%	10.7%	1.0%	3.47	3.20	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	23	23	103	445	87	43	5	100%	4.5	15.1%	11.1%	3.9%	1.2%	3.93	3.92	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	23	23	103	445	87	43	5	100%	4.5	15.1%	11.1%	3.9%	1.2%	3.93	3.92	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	23	23	103	445	87	43	5	100%	4.5	19.6%	9.7%	9.9%	1.1%	3.93	3.29	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	30	14	101	431	84	47	13	47%	3.4	15.4%	12.3%	3.2%	3.7%	4.26	5.37	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	30	14	101	431	84	47	13	47%	3.4	15.4%	12.3%	3.2%	3.7%	4.26	5.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	CIN	10	8	46	184	41	22	5	80%	4.6	22.3%	12.0%	10.3%	2.7%	3.13	4.22	—
2026	23	AA RAW	CIN	20	6	55	247	43	25	8	30%	2.8	17.4%	10.1%	7.3%	3.2%	5.20	4.69	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	CIN	6	0	7	28	4	4	1	0%	1.1	13.9%	12.9%	1.0%	2.4%	5.26	5.26	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	108	459	88	51	14	—	—	19.2%	11.0%	8.1%	3.0%	4.32	5.36	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CIN	18	18	102	429	68	51	11	100%	5.7	15.8%	11.8%	4.0%	2.4%	5.06	4.98	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	18	18	103	435	74	49	11	100%	5.7	17.0%	11.3%	5.7%	2.5%	4.90	4.83	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	103	435	76	48	11	100%	6.1	17.6%	11.0%	6.5%	2.5%	4.81	4.77	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	102	429	76	47	11	100%	6.0	17.7%	11.0%	6.7%	2.6%	4.79	4.79	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	98	416	73	46	11	100%	6.2	17.6%	11.2%	6.4%	2.7%	4.84	4.88	+0.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	94	397	69	45	11	100%	5.9	17.3%	11.4%	5.9%	2.8%	4.94	5.01	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	88	374	63	44	11	100%	5.9	17.0%	11.7%	5.3%	3.0%	5.09	5.18	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	45	190	30	22	5	100%	5.6	15.8%	11.8%	4.0%	2.6%	5.17	5.09	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	69	291	49	33	8	100%	5.8	17.0%	11.3%	5.7%	2.7%	5.01	4.94	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	82	346	61	38	9	100%	5.9	17.6%	11.0%	6.5%	2.7%	4.92	4.88	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	87	367	65	41	10	100%	6.2	17.7%	11.0%	6.7%	2.8%	4.90	4.90	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	CIN	15	15	88	372	65	42	11	100%	5.9	17.6%	11.2%	6.4%	2.9%	4.96	5.00	+0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	86	363	63	41	11	100%	6.1	17.3%	11.4%	5.9%	3.0%	5.06	5.13	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	82	346	59	41	11	100%	5.9	17.0%	11.7%	5.3%	3.3%	5.22	5.31	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	90	537	2268	391	257	65	100%	6.0	17.2%	11.3%	5.9%	2.9%	5.02	4.65	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	146	96	24	100%	6.0	17.2%	11.3%	5.9%	2.9%	5.02	4.65	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		102	67	382	1636	265	180	37	66%	3.7	16.2%	11.0%	5.2%	2.2%	3.86	4.36	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	35	200	856	139	94	19	66%	3.7	16.2%	11.0%	5.2%	2.2%	3.86	4.36	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Montero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	13.9%	12.9%	2.4%	—	4.86	16.8%	5.4%	308	-0.40	—	—	—
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	87
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	87
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	86
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	85
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	84
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	84
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	84
Chase Cohen R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.22	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.47	3.52	263	83
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	82
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	82
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	82
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	82
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	81
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	81
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	81
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	81
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	81
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	81
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	81
Cesar Gomez R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	14.0%	9.0%	1.9%	.364	4.89	16.1%	7.0%	196	+0.78	4.11	345	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	95	16.8%	11.5%	1.01	4.95
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04