Jose Montero

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 193 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ACIN	25	16	96	3.47	3.20	21.7%	11.0%	—	K 16.1% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.04
2025	22	A+CIN	23	23	103	3.93	3.29	19.6%	9.7%	—	K 15.1% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.92
2026	23	MIX2 levels	30	14	101	4.26	4.50	19.5%	10.9%	—	K 15.4% · BB 12.3% · FIP 5.37
2027PROJ	24	MLBCIN	1	1	1	5.64	5.64	13.6%	13.3%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBCIN	5	5	30	5.41	5.35	15.5%	12.3%	0.0
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBCIN	7	7	41	5.26	5.21	16.5%	11.9%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsJacob Meador (age 23) · Jonathan Hughes (age 24) · Justin Miller (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.64

FIP5.64

K%13.6%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%0.3%

Proj IP71

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	11	10	40	173	53	11	3	91%	3.6	20.8%	7.9%	12.9%	2.5%	3.40	3.72	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	11	10	40	173	53	11	3	91%	3.6	30.6%	6.4%	24.3%	1.7%	3.40	2.24	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	4	42	186	44	10	4	31%	3.3	16.8%	6.3%	10.5%	3.3%	4.04	4.32	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	4	42	186	44	10	4	31%	3.3	23.7%	5.4%	18.3%	2.2%	4.04	2.96	—
2024	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	16	96	401	87	44	4	64%	3.8	16.1%	12.9%	3.1%	1.2%	3.47	4.04	—
2024	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	16	96	401	87	44	4	64%	3.8	16.1%	12.9%	3.1%	1.2%	3.47	4.04	—
2024	21	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	25	16	96	401	87	44	4	64%	3.8	21.7%	11.0%	10.7%	1.0%	3.47	3.20	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	23	23	103	445	87	43	5	100%	4.5	15.1%	11.1%	3.9%	1.2%	3.93	3.92	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	23	23	103	445	87	43	5	100%	4.5	15.1%	11.1%	3.9%	1.2%	3.93	3.92	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	23	23	103	445	87	43	5	100%	4.5	19.6%	9.7%	9.9%	1.1%	3.93	3.29	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	14	101	431	84	47	13	47%	3.4	15.4%	12.3%	3.2%	3.7%	4.26	5.37	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	14	101	431	84	47	13	47%	3.4	15.4%	12.3%	3.2%	3.7%	4.26	5.37	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	14	101	431	84	47	13	47%	3.4	19.5%	10.9%	8.6%	3.0%	4.26	4.50	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CIN	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	13.6%	13.3%	0.3%	3.0%	5.64	5.64	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	68	287	44	35	8	100%	6.2	15.5%	12.3%	3.2%	3.0%	5.41	5.35	+0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	61	259	43	31	8	100%	6.1	16.5%	11.9%	4.6%	3.0%	5.26	5.21	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	58	244	41	29	7	100%	5.8	16.8%	11.8%	5.0%	3.0%	5.21	5.20	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	55	231	39	27	7	100%	6.1	16.8%	11.8%	5.0%	3.1%	5.23	5.26	+0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	51	214	36	26	7	100%	6.3	16.6%	12.0%	4.5%	3.3%	5.33	5.39	+0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	46	196	32	24	7	100%	5.8	16.2%	12.3%	3.9%	3.5%	5.47	5.57	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	30	127	20	16	4	100%	6.0	15.5%	12.3%	3.2%	3.0%	5.41	5.35	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	41	173	29	21	5	100%	5.9	16.5%	11.9%	4.6%	3.0%	5.26	5.21	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	45	190	32	22	6	100%	5.6	16.8%	11.8%	5.0%	3.0%	5.21	5.20	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	46	194	33	23	6	100%	5.8	16.8%	11.8%	5.0%	3.1%	5.23	5.26	+0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	45	190	31	23	6	100%	5.6	16.6%	12.0%	4.5%	3.3%	5.33	5.39	+0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	42	177	29	22	6	100%	6.0	16.2%	12.3%	3.9%	3.5%	5.47	5.57	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	248	1047	172	126	33	100%	6.0	16.5%	12.0%	4.5%	3.1%	5.31	4.95	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	139	102	27	100%	6.0	16.5%	12.0%	4.5%	3.1%	5.31	4.95	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		102	67	382	1636	265	180	37	66%	3.7	16.2%	11.0%	5.2%	2.2%	3.86	4.36	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	35	200	856	139	94	19	66%	3.7	16.2%	11.0%	5.2%	2.2%	3.86	4.36	+0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 55 IPFIP 4.69 → 5.45 (+0.76)K% 17.4% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.41%	—	×0.810	14.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.12%	—	×1.100	11.13%
HR / BF /BF	3.24%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.89%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.69 → 5.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Dayton Dragons · 46 IPFIP 4.22 → 5.26 (+1.03)K% 22.3% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.28%	—	×0.770	17.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.96%	—	×1.150	13.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.72%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.40%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.22 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 103 IPFIP 3.29 → 3.92 (+0.63)K% 19.6% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.55%	—	×0.770	15.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.66%	—	×1.150	11.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷1.124	×1.250	1.25%

Result: FIP 3.29 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADaytona Tortugas · 96 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.04 (+0.84)K% 21.7% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.70%	—	×0.740	16.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.97%	—	×1.180	12.95%
HR / BF /BF	1.00%	÷1.078	×1.300	1.20%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Reds · 35 IPFIP 3.05 → 4.32 (+1.27)K% 24.7% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.68%	—	×0.680	16.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.06%	—	×1.250	6.33%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷1.059	×1.400	3.35%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.05 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 8 IPFIP 2.50 → 3.05 (+0.55)K% 17.9% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.86%	—	×0.740	13.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.180	8.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.060	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.50 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Reds · 40 IPFIP 2.27 → 3.72 (+1.45)K% 30.6% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.64%	—	×0.680	20.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.36%	—	×1.250	7.95%
HR / BF /BF	1.73%	÷0.970	×1.400	2.50%

Result: FIP 2.27 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Montero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.64	13.6%	13.3%	3.0%	—	5.26	16.2%	4.3%	187	-0.38	—	—	—
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	87
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	86
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	85
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	85
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	85
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	84
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	84
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	83
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	82
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	82
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	82
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	81
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	80
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	80
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	80
Logan Shore R 2019 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	11.5%	10.5%	1.8%	.274	4.87	16.7%	6.3%	125	+0.41	3.09	386	80
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	79
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	79
Jorge Sosa R 2002 · 5.77 FIP	25	SW	5.77	11.1%	12.4%	3.7%	.228	4.55	15.7%	5.5%	362	-1.22	4.06	773	79
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	59	15.9%	12.2%	1.19	5.37
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*