Jonathan Hughes

P Columbus Clingstones

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 196 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	AAMississippi B…	34	50	3.58	2.98	21.2%	11.1%	—	K 17.1% · BB 12.2% · FIP 3.54
2025	28	AAATL	6	10	3.60	6.20	11.9%	11.9%	—	K 11.9% · BB 11.9% · FIP 6.22
2027PROJ	30	MLBATL	1	1	4.62	4.62	21.0%	10.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	31	MLBATL	8	8	4.71	4.79	20.8%	10.7%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJim Miller (age 30) · Dustin Molleken (age 30) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%21.0%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%10.5%

Proj IP34

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	24	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	23	13	73	341	57	37	5	57%	3.2	12.9%	12.5%	0.4%	1.8%	5.92	4.60	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	23	13	73	341	57	37	5	57%	3.2	16.7%	10.9%	5.9%	1.5%	5.92	3.95	—
2022	25	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	35	0	43	185	36	15	1	0%	1.2	15.0%	9.3%	5.7%	0.8%	3.59	3.44	—
2022	25	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	35	0	43	185	36	15	1	0%	1.2	19.5%	8.1%	11.4%	0.5%	3.59	2.77	—
2023	26	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	35	0	53	225	50	18	5	0%	1.5	17.1%	9.2%	7.9%	2.7%	3.08	4.31	—
2023	26	A+ RAW	Rome Braves	35	0	53	225	50	18	5	0%	1.5	22.2%	8.0%	14.2%	2.2%	3.08	3.46	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	34	0	50	208	44	23	1	0%	1.5	17.1%	12.2%	5.0%	0.6%	3.58	3.54	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	34	0	50	208	44	23	1	0%	1.5	17.1%	12.2%	5.0%	0.6%	3.58	3.54	—
2024	27	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	34	0	50	208	44	23	1	0%	1.5	21.2%	11.1%	10.1%	0.5%	3.58	2.98	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	6	0	10	42	5	5	2	0%	1.7	11.9%	11.9%	0.0%	4.8%	3.60	6.22	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	6	0	10	42	5	5	2	0%	1.7	11.9%	11.9%	0.0%	4.8%	3.60	6.22	—
2025	28	AA RAW	Columbus Clingstones	6	0	10	42	5	5	2	0%	1.7	11.9%	11.9%	0.0%	4.8%	3.60	6.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	ATL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.4%	10.5%	2.9%	4.62	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	ATL	25	0	27	112	23	12	4	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.71	4.79	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	ATL	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.71	4.79	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	35	7	4	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.71	4.41	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	96	24	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.71	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		133	13	229	1001	151	111	17	10%	1.7	15.1%	11.1%	4.0%	1.7%	4.21	4.17	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	11	200	876	132	97	15	10%	1.7	15.1%	11.1%	4.0%	1.7%	4.21	4.17	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 10 IPFIP 6.22 → 7.30 (+1.09)K% 11.9% → 9.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.90%	—	×0.810	9.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.90%	—	×1.100	13.10%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷0.934	×1.200	6.12%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 6.22 → 7.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMississippi Braves · 50 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.54 (+0.57)K% 21.2% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.15%	—	×0.810	17.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.06%	—	×1.100	12.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.48%	÷0.906	×1.200	0.64%

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Rome Braves · 53 IPFIP 3.46 → 4.31 (+0.86)K% 22.2% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.770	17.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.150	9.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.022	×1.250	2.72%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.46 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 43 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.44 (+0.66)K% 19.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.46%	—	×0.770	14.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.11%	—	×1.150	9.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.54%	÷0.881	×1.250	0.77%

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 73 IPFIP 3.87 → 4.60 (+0.73)K% 16.7% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.72%	—	×0.770	12.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.85%	—	×1.150	12.48%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷1.004	×1.250	1.83%

Result: FIP 3.87 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Hughes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	21.0%	10.4%	2.9%	—	4.79	20.8%	10.2%	27	+0.17	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	88
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	86
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	85
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	85
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	83
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	81
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	80
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	79
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	78
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	77
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	76
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	75
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	75
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	75
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	74
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	74
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	74
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	74
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	73
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	20.9%	10.5%	1.16	4.66
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*