Andrew Thurman

P San Antonio Missions

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2016	24	MIX2 levels	25	18	87	7.55	6.09	18.0%	15.1%	—	K 14.4% · BB 16.9% · FIP 6.31
2017	25	MIX2 levels	17	4	33	1.91	2.62	19.3%	8.9%	—	K 16.8% · BB 7.2% · FIP 2.59
2026	34	MIX2 levels	30	8	71	6.85	4.56	20.1%	14.7%	—	K 16.4% · BB 15.3% · FIP 4.98
2027PROJ	35	MLBSD	1	0	1	5.50	5.50	16.7%	14.5%	-0.0
2028PROJMLE	36	MLBSD	—	—	0	5.58	5.72	16.7%	14.6%	—

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsIvan Maldonado (age 35) · Esmerling Vasquez (age 35) · Jesse Estrada (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 121

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%16.7%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%2.2%

Proj IP43

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	90	385	66	27	3	95%	4.7	12.5%	8.2%	4.3%	0.7%	4.12	3.45	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	18	90	385	66	27	3	95%	4.7	17.1%	7.0%	10.1%	0.8%	4.12	2.97	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	87	416	75	63	17	72%	3.5	14.4%	16.9%	-2.5%	4.2%	7.55	6.31	—
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	18	87	416	75	63	17	72%	3.5	18.0%	15.1%	2.9%	4.1%	7.55	6.09	—
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	4	33	135	26	12	0	24%	1.9	16.8%	7.2%	9.7%	0.0%	1.91	2.59	—
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	4	33	135	26	12	0	24%	1.9	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	0.0%	1.91	2.62	—
2026	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	8	71	333	67	49	7	27%	2.4	16.4%	15.3%	1.1%	2.4%	6.85	4.98	—
2026	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	8	71	333	67	49	7	27%	2.4	16.4%	15.3%	1.1%	2.4%	6.85	4.98	—
2026	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	8	71	333	67	49	7	27%	2.4	20.1%	14.7%	5.4%	2.1%	6.85	4.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	SD	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	14.5%	2.2%	2.9%	5.50	5.50	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	SD	28	0	30	126	21	18	4	0%	1.1	16.7%	14.6%	2.1%	3.3%	5.58	5.72	-0.4
2028	36	MLB CTX	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.7%	14.6%	2.1%	3.3%	5.58	5.72	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	MLE		91	48	281	1269	185	162	28	53%	3.1	14.6%	12.8%	1.8%	2.2%	5.61	4.70	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	34	200	904	132	116	20	53%	3.1	14.6%	12.8%	1.8%	2.2%	5.61	4.70	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 58 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.38 (+0.70)K% 22.6% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.61%	—	×0.810	18.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.03%	—	×1.100	14.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.53%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.84%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 13 IPFIP 7.09 → 7.18 (+0.10)K% 11.1% → 9.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.11%	—	×0.860	9.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.83%	—	×0.900	18.75%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.58%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 7.09 → 7.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 25 IPFIP 2.04 → 2.59 (+0.54)K% 21.9% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.88%	—	×0.770	16.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.150	7.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.085	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 2.04 → 2.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AATulsa Drillers · 8 IPFIP 3.97 → 4.37 (+0.40)K% 12.8% → 10.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.82%	—	×0.810	10.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.38%	—	×1.100	16.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.295	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.97 → 4.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAMississippi Braves · 63 IPFIP 5.22 → 5.87 (+0.65)K% 17.6% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.63%	—	×0.810	14.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.25%	—	×1.100	16.78%
HR / BF /BF	3.05%	÷1.084	×1.200	3.38%

Result: FIP 5.22 → 5.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Carolina Mudcats · 24 IPFIP 7.01 → 7.36 (+0.35)K% 19.0% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.01%	—	×0.770	14.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.88%	—	×1.150	17.11%
HR / BF /BF	6.61%	÷1.362	×1.250	6.07%

Result: FIP 7.01 → 7.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Carolina Mudcats · 57 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.15 (+0.53)K% 17.9% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.92%	—	×0.770	13.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.58%	—	×1.150	5.27%
HR / BF /BF	0.83%	÷1.039	×1.250	1.00%

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAMississippi Braves · 24 IPFIP 3.72 → 4.08 (+0.36)K% 12.2% → 9.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.17%	—	×0.810	9.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×1.100	14.35%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.784	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.72 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Thurman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	16.7%	14.5%	2.9%	—	5.72	16.7%	2.1%	30	+0.22	—	—	—
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	66
Esmerling Vasquez R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	35	SP-	5.15	8.7%	16.8%	1.2%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	204	64
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	62
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	61
Pete Walker R 2003 · 5.73 FIP	34	SW	5.73	12.0%	9.1%	4.5%	.267	4.70	14.0%	5.1%	114	-1.03	4.45	327	57
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	300	56
Ramon Ramirez R 2016 · 5.25 FIP	33	SW	5.25	9.2%	14.1%	2.1%	.343	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	56
Cesar Carrillo R 2019 · 6.22 FIP	35	SP-	6.22	11.0%	9.2%	5.3%	.392	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	336	52
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	50
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	50
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	50
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	49
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	335	48
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	47
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	47
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2019 · 6.14 FIP	34	SU	6.14	17.9%	14.2%	5.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	170	47
Yohan Pino R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	33	SP-	5.33	15.2%	3.6%	5.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	193	42
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	35	SU	4.33	18.9%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	42
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	41
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	41

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	16.7%	14.5%	1.18	5.53
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*