Randy Rodríguez

Randy Rodríguez P San Francisco Giants

+0.3 WAR

INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.9 · 2027

ERA3.34

FIP3.49

xFIP2.90

SIERA2.33

K%27.9%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%19.8%

IP51

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2027

K†6565

FB Velo

p9097.4

Whiff%

p8731.1%

p9033.8%

xwOBA vs

p900.251

FB+6.2 (55%)

SL+5.5 (45%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	DSL Giants	10	2	27	116	34	9	1	19.9%	9.7%	1.2%	4.28	3.31	+0.5
2019	19	ROK	AZL Giants Black	16	0	25	116	29	16	1	17.0%	17.2%	1.2%	5.40	4.51	+0.1
2021	21	A	San Jose Giants	32	0	62	258	101	23	0	29.0%	10.5%	0.0%	1.74	1.99	+2.1
2022	22	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	27	13	67	297	97	43	7	25.3%	12.8%	2.5%	4.46	3.98	+0.8
2023	23	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	45	2	70	318	84	56	4	22.2%	18.7%	1.4%	4.37	4.39	+0.5
2024	24	MLB	San Francisco Giants	45	1	63	263	63	22	4	24.0%	8.1%	2.0%	3.86	3.21	+1.3
2025	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	50	0	51	198	67	11	4	33.8%	5.6%	2.0%	1.78	2.06	+1.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	SF	15	—	15	65	19	5	2	29.8%	8.1%	2.6%	3.21	3.44	+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	SF	51	—	51	214	64	17	6	29.8%	8.1%	2.7%	3.35	3.45	+0.9
2028	28	MLB	SF	50	—	50	211	63	17	6	29.8%	8.1%	2.7%	3.42	3.47	+0.8
2029	29	MLB	SF	49	—	49	206	60	17	6	29.3%	8.2%	2.7%	3.50	3.55	+0.8
2030	30	MLB	SF	47	—	47	200	58	17	6	28.7%	8.3%	2.8%	3.58	3.64	+0.7
2031	31	MLB	SF	46	—	46	193	54	16	6	28.2%	8.4%	2.9%	3.68	3.74	+0.6
2032	32	MLB	SF	44	—	44	185	51	16	5	27.5%	8.6%	2.9%	3.79	3.86	+0.5
2033	33	MLB	SF	42	—	42	177	48	16	5	26.9%	8.8%	3.0%	3.91	3.99	+0.5
2034	34	MLB	SF	40	—	40	168	44	15	5	26.2%	9.0%	3.1%	4.04	4.13	+0.4
2035	35	MLB	SF	38	—	38	158	40	15	5	25.4%	9.2%	3.2%	4.18	4.28	+0.3
2036	36	MLB	SF	35	—	35	148	37	14	5	24.7%	9.4%	3.4%	4.34	4.44	+0.2
2037	37	MLB	SF	33	—	33	138	33	13	5	23.9%	9.7%	3.5%	4.51	4.62	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			225	18	365	1566	394	188	24	25.1%	12.0%	1.6%	3.55	3.35	+8.1
/ 200 IP	—			123	10	200	859	216	103	13	25.1%	12.0%	1.6%	3.55	3.35	+4.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Randy Rodríguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.44	29.8%	8.1%	2.6%	—	3.49	29.6%	21.5%	150	+0.05	—	—	—
Ken Giles R 2026 · 2.23 FIP	26	SW	2.23	33.6%	8.5%	1.6%	.288	2.43	32.6%	27.1%	103	+0.20	1.95	368	78
Kelvin Herrera R 2026 · 2.35 FIP	26	SW	2.35	30.4%	4.2%	2.3%	.285	3.98	21.7%	15.1%	155	+1.63	2.35	297	77
Craig Kimbrel R 2027 · 2.46 FIP	27	SW	2.46	36.4%	8.8%	2.4%	.272	2.16	42.6%	32.3%	184	-0.30	1.10	556	76
Jaden Hill R 2025 · 2.56 FIP	25	SU	2.56	28.4%	7.7%	1.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	129	76
Zach McAllister R 2027 · 2.83 FIP	27	SW	2.83	28.1%	6.4%	2.4%	.333	3.89	23.5%	16.0%	159	+1.06	2.83	363	74
Ben Heller R 2025 · 2.93 FIP	25	SW	2.93	32.4%	9.4%	2.5%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	74
Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.36 FIP	26	SU	3.36	26.6%	8.0%	2.7%	.291	2.98	24.1%	13.3%	63	-0.38	2.67	178	74
Daniel Robert R 2026 · 2.28 FIP	26	SU	2.28	37.5%	4.9%	3.1%	.290	3.60	25.0%	12.8%	125	+1.32	2.28	186	74
Pedro Báez R 2027 · 2.29 FIP	27	SW	2.29	28.8%	4.8%	1.9%	.321	3.69	25.8%	17.2%	194	+1.40	2.29	332	73
Drew Storen R 2027 · 2.26 FIP	27	SW	2.26	29.4%	6.1%	1.6%	.287	3.79	20.3%	13.9%	106	+1.53	2.26	172	72
Trevor Brigden R 2026 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	27.6%	4.2%	4.0%	.303	4.32	25.2%	13.6%	113	+0.82	3.50	196	72
Jeremiah Estrada R 2026 · 3.06 FIP	26	SW	3.06	35.5%	8.2%	3.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	1.85	239	71
Hunter Bigge R 2026 · 3.43 FIP	26	SU	3.43	37.1%	9.6%	4.1%	.271	6.03	20.0%	11.7%	15	+2.60	3.43	180	71
Trevor May R 2026 · 3.64 FIP	26	SU	3.64	32.1%	8.6%	3.9%	.308	3.54	28.1%	18.5%	117	-0.10	3.04	432	71
Tucker Healy R 2026 · 2.83 FIP	26	SW	2.83	30.4%	10.5%	1.8%	.294	4.61	16.9%	5.8%	67	+1.78	2.83	174	71
Alex Powers R 2026 · 2.95 FIP	26	SU	2.95	25.8%	6.4%	2.2%	.257	3.54	26.5%	16.8%	98	+0.59	2.81	264	70
Justin Slaten R 2026 · 2.46 FIP	26	SW	2.46	25.9%	4.0%	1.9%	.281	3.47	18.2%	12.4%	34	+1.01	2.46	274	70
Justin Grimm R 2026 · 2.87 FIP	26	SU	2.87	32.8%	12.3%	1.8%	.250	4.09	26.1%	15.2%	157	+1.22	2.87	335	70
Ryan Brasier R 2028 · 3.68 FIP	28	SW	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.07	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.61	2.31	403	70
Silvino Bracho R 2026 · 2.56 FIP	26	SW	2.56	29.0%	6.7%	1.9%	.355	4.60	25.5%	18.0%	50	+2.04	2.48	395	70

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.860 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2028	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.4M
2029	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$6M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$11M		$15M	+$4M