Randy Rodríguez
P
San Francisco Giants
Age 26
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.9 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 71 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8172vR 62
ERA3.12
FIP3.15
K%31.2%
BB%6.6%
K-BB%24.6%
ROS IP71
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.4
Whiff%
p8731.1%
K%
p9033.8%
xwOBA vs
p900.251
FB+6.2 (55%)
SL+5.5 (45%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants | 10 | 2 | 27 | 116 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 20% | 2.7 | 19.9% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 1.2% | 4.28 | 3.31 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants | 10 | 2 | 27 | 116 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 20% | 2.7 | 29.3% | 7.8% | 21.6% | 0.9% | 4.28 | 2.08 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Giants Black | 16 | 0 | 25 | 116 | 29 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.0% | 17.2% | -0.2% | 1.2% | 5.40 | 4.51 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Giants Black | 16 | 0 | 25 | 116 | 29 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.0% | 13.8% | 11.2% | 0.9% | 5.40 | 3.22 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | San Jose Giants | 32 | 0 | 62 | 258 | 101 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 29.0% | 10.5% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 1.74 | 1.99 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | San Jose Giants | 32 | 0 | 62 | 258 | 101 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 39.1% | 8.9% | 30.2% | 0.0% | 1.74 | 0.95 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 13 | 67 | 297 | 97 | 43 | 7 | 48% | 2.5 | 25.3% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 2.3% | 4.46 | 3.86 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 13 | 67 | 297 | 97 | 43 | 7 | 48% | 2.5 | 32.7% | 14.5% | 18.2% | 2.4% | 4.46 | 3.49 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 2 | 70 | 318 | 84 | 56 | 4 | 4% | 1.6 | 22.2% | 18.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 4.37 | 4.38 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 2 | 70 | 318 | 84 | 56 | 4 | 4% | 1.6 | 26.4% | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.3% | 4.37 | 3.84 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 63 | 263 | 63 | 22 | 4 | 2% | 1.4 | 24.0% | 8.1% | 15.8% | 2.0% | 3.86 | 3.19 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 63 | 263 | 63 | 22 | 4 | 2% | 1.4 | 24.0% | 8.4% | 15.6% | 1.5% | 3.86 | 2.97 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 50 | 0 | 51 | 198 | 67 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.8% | 5.6% | 28.3% | 2.2% | 1.78 | 2.15 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 50 | 0 | 51 | 198 | 67 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.8% | 5.6% | 28.3% | 2.0% | 1.78 | 2.13 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | SF | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 66 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.2% | 6.6% | 24.6% | 2.7% | 3.12 | 3.15 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SF | 70 | 0 | 73 | 309 | 96 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.2% | 6.7% | 24.5% | 2.7% | 3.16 | 3.19 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SF | 68 | 0 | 71 | 299 | 93 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.1% | 6.8% | 24.2% | 2.8% | 3.23 | 3.27 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SF | 64 | 0 | 68 | 286 | 87 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.5% | 7.0% | 23.4% | 3.0% | 3.35 | 3.43 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SF | 61 | 0 | 64 | 269 | 80 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.8% | 7.3% | 22.4% | 3.2% | 3.52 | 3.64 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SF | 56 | 0 | 59 | 250 | 73 | 19 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.0% | 7.7% | 21.3% | 3.4% | 3.73 | 3.87 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | SF | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 65 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.2% | 8.1% | 20.1% | 3.7% | 3.97 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SF | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 91 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.2% | 6.7% | 24.5% | 2.6% | 3.10 | 3.13 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SF | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 88 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.1% | 6.8% | 24.2% | 2.7% | 3.17 | 3.21 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SF | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 82 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.5% | 7.0% | 23.4% | 2.9% | 3.28 | 3.36 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SF | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 75 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.8% | 7.3% | 22.4% | 3.0% | 3.45 | 3.57 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SF | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 69 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.0% | 7.7% | 21.3% | 3.3% | 3.66 | 3.80 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | SF | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 62 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 8.1% | 20.1% | 3.5% | 3.89 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 437 | 1 | 473 | 1981 | 589 | 142 | 54 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.8% | 7.2% | 22.6% | 2.7% | 3.32 | 3.00 | +13.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 185 | 0 | 200 | 838 | 249 | 60 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.8% | 7.2% | 22.6% | 2.7% | 3.32 | 3.00 | +5.6 | ||
| Career | — | 225 | 18 | 365 | 1566 | 394 | 188 | 24 | 8% | 1.6 | 25.1% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 1.5% | 3.55 | 3.34 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 123 | 10 | 200 | 859 | 216 | 103 | 13 | 8% | 1.6 | 25.1% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 1.5% | 3.55 | 3.34 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Randy Rodríguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.15 | 31.2% | 6.6% | 2.7% | — | 3.29 | 30.9% | 24.1% | 212 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Kelvin Herrera R 2026 · 2.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.32 | 30.4% | 4.2% | 2.3% | .285 | 4.00 | 21.7% | 15.1% | 155 | +1.68 | 2.32 | 297 | 79 |
| Ken Giles R 2026 · 2.18 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.18 | 33.6% | 8.5% | 1.5% | .288 | 2.48 | 32.6% | 27.1% | 103 | +0.30 | 1.97 | 368 | 78 |
| Zach McAllister R 2027 · 2.82 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.82 | 28.1% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.91 | 23.5% | 16.0% | 159 | +1.09 | 2.82 | 363 | 76 |
| Pedro Báez R 2027 · 2.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.39 | 28.8% | 4.8% | 2.0% | .321 | 3.73 | 25.8% | 17.2% | 194 | +1.34 | 2.39 | 332 | 75 |
| Ben Heller R 2025 · 2.65 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.65 | 32.4% | 9.4% | 2.0% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 246 | 74 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 2.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.16 | 37.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | .290 | 3.62 | 25.0% | 12.8% | 125 | +1.46 | 2.16 | 186 | 74 |
| Craig Kimbrel R 2027 · 2.62 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.62 | 36.4% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 2.09 | 42.6% | 32.3% | 184 | -0.53 | 0.89 | 599 | 74 |
| Drew Storen R 2027 · 2.36 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.36 | 29.4% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .287 | 3.81 | 20.3% | 13.9% | 106 | +1.45 | 2.36 | 172 | 73 |
| Justin Slaten R 2026 · 2.39 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.39 | 25.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% | .281 | 3.47 | 23.2% | 17.3% | 56 | +1.08 | 2.39 | 296 | 73 |
| Trevor Brigden R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.57 | 27.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | .303 | 4.18 | 25.2% | 13.6% | 113 | +0.61 | 3.57 | 196 | 72 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.27 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.07 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.20 | 2.74 | 178 | 72 |
| Craig Yoho R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.24 | 30.7% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .150 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.54 | 141 | 72 |
| Tucker Healy R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.02 | 30.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.85 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 67 | +1.83 | 2.85 | 174 | 72 |
| Grant Taylor R 2024 · 2.44 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.44 | 33.8% | 8.6% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.63 | 128 | 71 |
| Silvino Bracho R 2026 · 2.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.49 | 29.0% | 6.7% | 1.8% | .355 | 4.62 | 25.5% | 18.0% | 50 | +2.13 | 2.49 | 395 | 71 |
| Dellin Betances R 2027 · 2.14 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.14 | 39.5% | 11.4% | 1.7% | .248 | 2.01 | 41.0% | 29.6% | 199 | -0.13 | 1.58 | 308 | 70 |
| Luke Bard R 2026 · 2.90 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.90 | 28.7% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .362 | 4.73 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 128 | +1.83 | 2.90 | 388 | 70 |
| Jeremiah Estrada R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.47 | 35.5% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .289 | 3.61 | 28.0% | 15.8% | 21 | +0.14 | 1.99 | 259 | 70 |
| Carlos Alvarado R 2026 · 2.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.72 | 27.8% | 0.0% | 3.6% | .250 | 5.06 | 23.1% | 10.5% | 59 | +2.34 | 2.72 | 102 | 70 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 63 | 30.2% | 7.2% | 1.18 | 3.43 |
| Giovanny Gallegos ('24) | 6 | 52 | 29.4% | 6.6% | 1.19 | 3.46 |
| Sean Doolittle ('21) | 5 | 49 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 1.18 | 3.31 |
| Sergio Romo ('21) | 7 | 50 | 26.3% | 7.0% | 1.20 | 3.70 |
| Will Smith ('24) | 8 | 56 | 29.2% | 8.8% | 1.07 | 3.60 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Chris Devenski ('24) | 6 | 62 | 26.0% | 6.9% | 1.25 | 3.61 |