Liam Hendriks

P Iowa Cubs

Age 38 RHP 6'0" / 235 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	35	MIX2 levels	6	0	5	0.00	3.10	14.3%	9.5%	—	K 14.3% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.10
2025	36	MIX3 levels	17	2	17	5.40	4.24	23.9%	12.7%	0.1	K 20.3% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.79
2026	37	MIX2 levels	5	1	5	0.00	0.90	41.2%	5.9%	—	K 41.2% · BB 5.9% · FIP 0.37
2027PROJ	38	MLBCHC	5	0	5	4.24	4.32	24.5%	9.7%	0.0
2028PROJ	39	MLBCHC	30	0	31	4.55	4.76	23.4%	10.4%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo55

K%37

xwOBA vs10

CompsJuan Sandoval (age 38) · Rudy Gonzalez (age 36) · Keiichi Yabu (age 39)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.24

FIP4.32

K%24.5%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%14.9%

Proj IP47

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p7729.6%

p3720.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.375

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2011	22	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	4	4	23	100	16	6	3	100%	5.8	16.0%	6.0%	10.0%	3.0%	6.17	4.15	+0.3
2011	22	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	4	4	23	100	16	6	3	100%	5.8	16.0%	6.0%	10.0%	3.0%	6.17	4.17	+0.3
2012	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	16	16	85	381	50	23	17	100%	5.3	13.1%	6.0%	7.1%	4.4%	5.59	5.19	+0.2
2012	23	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	16	16	85	381	50	23	17	100%	5.3	13.1%	6.0%	7.1%	4.5%	5.59	5.33	+0.1
2013	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	10	8	47	224	34	13	10	80%	4.7	15.2%	5.8%	9.4%	4.4%	6.85	4.99	+0.2
2013	24	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	10	8	47	224	34	13	10	80%	4.7	15.2%	5.8%	9.4%	4.5%	6.85	5.23	+0.1
2014	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	9	6	33	143	23	7	3	67%	3.6	16.1%	4.9%	11.2%	2.3%	5.23	3.61	+0.7
2014	25	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	9	6	33	143	23	7	3	67%	3.6	16.1%	4.9%	11.2%	2.1%	5.23	3.53	+0.7
2015	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	58	0	65	261	71	10	3	0%	1.1	27.2%	3.8%	23.4%	1.1%	2.92	1.92	+2.1
2015	26	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	58	0	65	261	71	10	3	0%	1.1	27.2%	3.8%	23.4%	1.1%	2.92	1.97	+2.0
2016	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	57	0	70	298	75	13	6	0%	1.2	25.8%	4.0%	21.8%	2.4%	3.71	2.74	+1.5
2016	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	57	0	70	298	75	13	6	0%	1.2	25.2%	4.4%	20.8%	2.0%	3.71	2.63	+1.6
2017	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	70	0	64	273	78	23	7	0%	0.9	28.6%	8.4%	20.1%	2.8%	4.22	3.30	+1.0
2017	28	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	70	0	64	273	78	23	7	0%	0.9	28.6%	8.4%	20.1%	2.6%	4.22	3.16	+1.1
2018	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	9	49	207	65	14	4	19%	1.0	28.9%	6.9%	22.0%	2.1%	3.47	2.70	+1.1
2018	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	9	49	207	65	14	4	19%	1.0	31.4%	6.8%	24.6%	1.9%	3.47	2.37	+1.3
2019	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	75	2	85	332	124	16	5	3%	1.1	37.3%	4.8%	32.5%	1.7%	1.80	1.46	+3.2
2019	30	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	75	2	85	332	124	16	5	3%	1.1	37.3%	4.8%	32.5%	1.5%	1.80	1.51	+3.1
2020	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	24	0	25	92	37	2	1	0%	1.1	40.2%	2.2%	38.0%	1.2%	1.78	0.63	+1.2
2020	31	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	24	0	25	92	37	2	1	0%	1.1	40.2%	2.2%	38.0%	1.1%	1.78	0.93	+1.1
2021	32	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	69	0	71	267	113	6	11	0%	1.0	42.3%	2.2%	40.1%	4.0%	2.54	2.03	+2.2
2021	32	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	69	0	71	267	113	6	11	0%	1.0	42.3%	2.2%	40.1%	4.1%	2.54	2.18	+2.0
2022	33	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	58	0	58	235	85	15	7	0%	1.0	36.2%	6.4%	29.8%	2.9%	2.81	2.46	+1.4
2022	33	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	58	0	58	235	85	15	7	0%	1.0	36.2%	6.4%	29.8%	3.0%	2.81	2.51	+1.4
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	10	42	8	2	4	0%	0.9	19.0%	4.8%	14.3%	9.5%	8.10	7.32	-0.3
2023	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	10	42	8	2	4	0%	0.9	19.0%	4.8%	14.3%	9.5%	8.10	7.30	-0.3
2024	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	5	21	3	2	0	0%	0.8	14.3%	9.5%	4.8%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2024	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	5	21	3	2	0	0%	0.8	14.3%	9.5%	4.8%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2024	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	5	21	3	2	0	0%	0.8	14.3%	9.5%	4.8%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2025	36	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	2	17	71	17	9	2	12%	1.0	20.3%	11.9%	8.5%	3.5%	5.40	4.79	-0.0
2025	36	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	2	17	71	17	9	2	12%	1.0	20.3%	11.9%	8.5%	3.5%	5.40	4.79	-0.0
2025	36	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	2	17	71	17	9	2	12%	1.0	23.9%	12.7%	11.3%	2.8%	5.40	4.24	+0.1
2026	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	1	5	17	7	1	0	20%	1.0	41.2%	5.9%	35.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.37	—
2026	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	1	5	17	7	1	0	20%	1.0	41.2%	5.9%	35.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.37	—
2026	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	1	5	17	7	1	0	20%	1.0	41.2%	5.9%	35.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.90	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			490	44	664	2766	739	150	79	9%	1.4	26.7%	5.4%	21.3%	2.9%	3.88	3.10	+11.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	CHC	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	24.5%	9.7%	14.9%	3.1%	4.24	4.32	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	CHC	30	0	31	131	31	14	5	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.4%	13.0%	3.5%	4.55	4.76	-0.1
2028	39	MLB CTX	CHC	30	0	31	131	31	14	5	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.4%	13.0%	3.5%	4.55	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		520	44	695	2897	770	164	84	8%	1.3	26.6%	5.6%	20.9%	2.9%	3.91	3.16	+11.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		150	13	200	834	222	47	24	8%	1.3	26.6%	5.6%	20.9%	2.9%	3.91	3.16	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		537	48	713	2964	800	161	86	9%	1.3	27.0%	5.4%	21.6%	2.9%	3.81	3.10	+11.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	13	200	832	225	45	24	9%	1.3	27.0%	5.4%	21.6%	2.9%	3.81	3.10	+3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAACharlotte Knights · 5 IPFIP 9.24 → 9.11 (−0.13)K% 22.7% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.860	19.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×0.900	4.09%
HR / BF /BF	13.64%	÷1.152	×1.100	13.02%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 130).

Result: FIP 9.24 → 9.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANashville Sounds · 25 IPFIP 0.60 → 1.11 (+0.51)K% 41.7% → 36.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.75%	—	×0.880	36.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.88%	—	×1.050	4.08%
HR / BF /BF	0.97%	÷0.988	×1.100	1.08%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 0.60 → 1.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAANashville Sounds · 5 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.32 (+0.22)K% 15.0% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.00%	—	×0.880	13.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.050	10.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.856	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Liam Hendriks (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.76	23.4%	13.0%	31	+0.44	—	—	—
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	65
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	63
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	63
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	62
Billy Taylor R 2000 · 4.53 FIP	38	SU	4.53	21.0%	11.3%	3.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	323	61
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	59
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	53
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	51
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	48
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	46
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	45
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	36
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	35
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	34

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	53	26.4%	6.4%	1.12	3.93
Jake McGee ('22)	2.9	48	26.0%	6.6%	1.10	3.71
Joel Peralta ('16)	3.2	54	23.0%	7.0%	1.32	4.03
Joe Sambito ('76-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.1	70	26.8%*	7.5%*	1.06*	3.65*
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*
Sergio Romo ('22)	3.6	52	27.0%	6.1%	1.06	3.21
Steve Hamilton ('61-'72, 10 WAR*)	3.3	66	25.2%*	7.7%*	0.92*	3.71*