Justin Slaten
P
Boston Red Sox
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 222 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 43 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9081vR 72
ERA3.13
FIP3.06
K%26.5%
BB%5.0%
K-BB%21.4%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7996.6
Whiff%
p5325.7%
K%
p9030.7%
xwOBA vs
p860.277
FB+0.8 (37%)
CT (44%)
SI (10%)
CU (2%)
SL (16%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.29 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 20 | 19 | 82 | 366 | 110 | 31 | 17 | 95% | 4.1 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 7.6% | 6.01 | 6.56 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 20 | 19 | 82 | 366 | 110 | 31 | 17 | 95% | 4.1 | 30.1% | 8.5% | 21.6% | 4.6% | 6.01 | 4.24 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 5 | 52 | 246 | 66 | 48 | 6 | 19% | 2.0 | 21.3% | 21.7% | -0.4% | 3.6% | 6.79 | 6.01 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 5 | 52 | 246 | 66 | 48 | 6 | 19% | 2.0 | 26.8% | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 6.79 | 4.84 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 1 | 60 | 235 | 86 | 20 | 10 | 2% | 1.5 | 30.3% | 8.7% | 21.7% | 5.6% | 2.87 | 4.72 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 1 | 60 | 235 | 86 | 20 | 10 | 2% | 1.5 | 36.6% | 8.5% | 28.1% | 4.3% | 2.87 | 3.40 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 56 | 227 | 59 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.9% | 4.0% | 21.9% | 1.8% | 3.07 | 2.39 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 56 | 227 | 59 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.0% | 4.4% | 21.6% | 1.8% | 3.07 | 2.45 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 37 | 149 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.2% | 5.8% | 12.4% | 2.2% | 3.89 | 3.49 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 37 | 149 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 14.1% | 2.0% | 3.89 | 3.26 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 28 | 2 | 24 | 110 | 35 | 7 | 4 | 7% | 0.9 | 30.7% | 5.9% | 24.8% | 4.0% | 5.18 | 3.43 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | BOS | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 48 | 9 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 5.0% | 21.4% | 2.8% | 3.13 | 3.06 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | BOS | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 48 | 9 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 5.0% | 21.4% | 2.8% | 3.13 | 3.06 | +0.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 67 | 292 | 83 | 16 | 9 | — | — | 28.5% | 5.5% | 23.0% | 3.1% | 3.87 | 3.19 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 65 | 276 | 83 | 16 | 9 | — | — | 30.1% | 5.8% | 24.3% | 3.3% | 3.99 | 3.12 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 60 | 0 | 62 | 264 | 67 | 14 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 5.2% | 20.2% | 3.0% | 3.60 | 3.64 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 56 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 61 | 14 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 5.5% | 19.2% | 3.2% | 3.75 | 3.85 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 63 | 13 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 5.2% | 20.2% | 3.0% | 3.61 | 3.65 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 58 | 13 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 5.5% | 19.2% | 3.2% | 3.76 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 257 | 0 | 270 | 1130 | 284 | 58 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 5.2% | 20.0% | 2.8% | 3.67 | 3.15 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 837 | 210 | 43 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 5.2% | 20.0% | 2.8% | 3.67 | 3.15 | +5.3 | ||
| Career | — | 199 | 27 | 312 | 1336 | 329 | 134 | 61 | 14% | 1.6 | 24.6% | 10.0% | 14.6% | 4.6% | 4.68 | 4.81 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 128 | 17 | 200 | 857 | 211 | 86 | 39 | 14% | 1.6 | 24.6% | 10.0% | 14.6% | 4.6% | 4.68 | 4.81 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Slaten (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.46 | 24.4% | 4.8% | 2.6% | — | 3.74 | 25.1% | 19.7% | 121 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Chris Hatcher R 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.66 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.61 | 3.05 | 176 | 78 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2029 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 76 |
| Josh Lueke R 2028 · 2.50 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.50 | 30.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 75 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 74 |
| Matt Bush R 2028 · 2.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.86 | 24.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .232 | 3.96 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 75 | +1.10 | 2.86 | 249 | 74 |
| John Brebbia R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.21 | 30.0% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .317 | 3.04 | 29.3% | 22.2% | 106 | -0.17 | 2.81 | 574 | 74 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .302 | 3.78 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.47 | 1.74 | 468 | 73 |
| Ryan Pressly R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.92 | 24.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | .251 | 2.28 | 34.0% | 27.5% | 146 | -1.64 | 1.80 | 586 | 73 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 2.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.85 | 22.7% | 5.6% | 1.7% | .313 | 4.04 | 28.3% | 18.0% | 75 | +1.19 | 2.85 | 185 | 73 |
| Hansel Robles R 2026 · 2.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.74 | 26.5% | 5.3% | 2.2% | .278 | 4.54 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 128 | +1.80 | 2.74 | 469 | 72 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2027 · 2.90 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.90 | 22.7% | 4.9% | 2.0% | .345 | 4.63 | 20.6% | 12.8% | 147 | +1.73 | 2.90 | 227 | 72 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 2.42 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.42 | 24.4% | 5.0% | 1.4% | .278 | 3.04 | 26.0% | 16.6% | 56 | +0.62 | 2.42 | 302 | 71 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.92 | 26.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 213 | 71 |
| Liam Hendriks R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.23 | 28.6% | 8.4% | 2.7% | .303 | 1.67 | 35.2% | 30.1% | 160 | -1.56 | 0.60 | 495 | 71 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.70 | 27.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 103 | 71 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2028 · 2.35 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.35 | 32.7% | 6.5% | 2.1% | .242 | 2.94 | 31.7% | 19.3% | 197 | +0.59 | 1.99 | 488 | 71 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 70 |
| C.C. Lee R 2026 · 2.50 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.50 | 23.9% | 7.0% | 1.0% | .323 | 2.98 | 30.9% | 21.5% | 63 | +0.48 | 2.50 | 121 | 70 |
| Anthony Swarzak R 2027 · 2.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.83 | 21.3% | 4.9% | 1.7% | .386 | 3.64 | 26.1% | 19.8% | 181 | +0.81 | 2.45 | 260 | 70 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 21.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.96 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 65 | +0.20 | 2.36 | 172 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 62 | 24.9% | 5.2% | 1.13 | 3.62 |
| Joe Blanton ('17) | 3 | 67 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 1.08 | 3.32 |
| Addison Reed ('18) | 4 | 66 | 24.0% | 5.7% | 0.98 | 3.05 |
| Richard Rodríguez ('21) | 4 | 56 | 25.0% | 6.3% | 1.21 | 3.00 |
| Craig Stammen ('22) | 6 | 66 | 23.0% | 5.4% | 1.19 | 3.36 |
| Ryan Madson ('18) | 4 | 60 | 23.6% | 6.1% | 0.79 | 3.19 |
| Sean Doolittle ('21) | 5 | 49 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 1.18 | 3.31 |