Justin Slaten — OGILVIE

Justin Slaten P Boston Red Sox

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 222 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.5 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9082vR 74

ERA3.08

FIP3.01

K%26.0%

BB%5.1%

K-BB%21.0%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6565

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7996.6

Whiff%

p5025.2%

p8428.5%

xwOBA vs

p900.266

FB+0.8 (38%)

CT (42%)

SI (13%)

CU (3%)

SL (17%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.2M
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.8M
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	20	19	82	366	110	31	17	95%	4.1	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	6.6%	6.01	6.00	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	20	19	82	366	110	31	17	95%	4.1	30.1%	8.5%	21.6%	4.6%	6.01	4.24	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	5	52	246	66	48	6	19%	2.0	21.3%	21.7%	-0.4%	3.2%	6.79	5.83	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	5	52	246	66	48	6	19%	2.0	26.8%	19.5%	7.3%	2.4%	6.79	4.84	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	60	235	86	20	10	2%	1.5	30.3%	8.7%	21.7%	5.5%	2.87	4.63	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	60	235	86	20	10	2%	1.5	30.3%	8.7%	21.7%	5.5%	2.87	4.63	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	1	60	235	86	20	10	2%	1.5	36.6%	8.5%	28.1%	4.3%	2.87	3.40	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	56	227	59	10	4	0%	1.2	25.9%	4.0%	21.9%	1.8%	3.07	2.43	+1.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	56	227	59	10	4	0%	1.2	25.9%	4.0%	21.9%	1.8%	3.07	2.43	+1.4
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	56	227	59	10	4	0%	1.2	26.0%	4.4%	21.6%	1.8%	3.07	2.45	+1.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	37	149	30	9	3	0%	0.9	18.2%	5.8%	12.4%	2.2%	3.89	3.53	+0.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	37	149	30	9	3	0%	0.9	18.2%	5.8%	12.4%	2.2%	3.89	3.53	+0.4
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	37	149	30	9	3	0%	0.9	20.1%	6.0%	14.1%	2.0%	3.89	3.26	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			116	0	121	498	122	25	11	0%	1.0	24.5%	5.0%	19.5%	2.2%	3.73	2.88	+2.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	38	2	33	146	43	9	4	5%	0.9	28.5%	5.8%	22.6%	3.0%	4.32	3.08	+0.6
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	38	2	33	146	43	9	4	5%	0.9	28.5%	5.8%	22.6%	3.0%	4.32	3.08	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	BOS	1	1	1	4	2	0	0	100%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	BOS	1	1	1	5	2	1	0	100%	1.0	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.26	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	BOS	36	0	31	137	39	8	4	0%	0.9	28.5%	5.8%	22.6%	2.9%	4.60	3.04	+0.6
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	BOS	36	0	31	137	39	8	4	0%	0.9	28.5%	5.8%	22.6%	2.9%	4.60	3.04	+0.6
ROS	28	MLB MLE	BOS	3	0	4	15	4	1	0	0%	1.2	26.0%	5.1%	21.0%	2.7%	3.08	3.01	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	BOS	4	0	4	17	4	1	0	0%	1.0	26.0%	5.1%	21.0%	2.6%	3.04	2.97	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	37	161	47	10	4	—	—	29.1%	6.1%	23.1%	2.7%	4.20	3.07	+0.7
FULL	28	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	35	148	47	10	4	—	—	31.8%	6.6%	25.2%	3.0%	4.43	2.89	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	BOS	60	0	62	264	66	14	8	0%	1.0	25.1%	5.3%	19.8%	2.9%	3.56	3.60	+0.7
2028	30	MLB MLE	BOS	56	0	59	248	61	14	8	0%	1.1	24.4%	5.6%	18.8%	3.1%	3.71	3.81	+0.5
2027	29	MLB CTX	BOS	56	0	59	249	63	13	7	0%	1.1	25.1%	5.3%	19.8%	2.8%	3.52	3.56	+0.7
2028	30	MLB CTX	BOS	53	0	56	236	58	13	7	0%	1.1	24.4%	5.6%	18.8%	3.0%	3.67	3.77	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		229	0	240	1000	246	52	25	0%	1.0	24.6%	5.2%	19.4%	2.5%	3.65	3.08	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	835	205	43	21	0%	1.0	24.6%	5.2%	19.4%	2.5%	3.65	3.08	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		209	27	321	1372	337	136	57	13%	1.5	24.6%	9.9%	14.7%	4.1%	4.60	4.55	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	17	200	856	210	85	35	13%	1.5	24.6%	9.9%	14.7%	4.1%	4.60	4.55	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Slaten (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.48	24.4%	4.8%	2.6%	—	3.70	24.8%	19.3%	121	+0.22	—	—	—
Chris Hatcher R 2015 · 2.92 FIP	30	SU	2.92	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.67	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.75	2.92	176	79
Jumbo Diaz R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	31	SU	3.16	25.2%	6.0%	2.6%	.286	3.65	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.49	2.80	284	77
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	76
Ryan Pressly R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	28	SU	3.93	24.2%	5.6%	4.0%	.251	2.39	34.0%	27.5%	146	-1.54	1.88	586	75
Matt Bush R 2016 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.94	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.07	2.87	249	75
Simon Castro R 2016 · 3.01 FIP	28	SU	3.01	22.7%	5.6%	2.0%	.313	3.99	28.3%	18.0%	75	+0.98	3.01	185	75
Daniel Hudson R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	24.5%	7.9%	2.4%	.302	3.78	22.8%	13.6%	168	+0.43	1.68	468	75
John Brebbia R 2018 · 3.20 FIP	28	SU	3.20	30.0%	6.4%	3.3%	.317	3.09	29.3%	22.2%	106	-0.11	2.89	575	75
Josh Lueke R 2015 · 2.29 FIP	30	SU	2.29	30.0%	4.1%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	74
Scott Oberg R 2018 · 2.54 FIP	28	SU	2.54	24.4%	5.0%	1.6%	.278	3.19	26.0%	16.6%	56	+0.65	2.54	302	74
Junichi Tazawa R 2015 · 2.94 FIP	29	SU	2.94	22.7%	4.9%	2.1%	.345	4.62	20.6%	12.8%	147	+1.68	2.94	227	74
Liam Hendriks R 2017 · 3.30 FIP	28	SU	3.30	28.6%	8.4%	2.8%	.303	1.71	35.2%	30.1%	160	-1.59	0.63	495	73
Drew Storen R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	28	SU	3.72	21.1%	5.3%	3.1%	.304	3.91	19.5%	11.6%	65	+0.19	2.36	172	73
C.C. Lee R 2015 · 2.59 FIP	28	SU	2.59	23.9%	7.0%	1.1%	.323	3.10	30.9%	21.5%	63	+0.51	2.59	121	73
Hansel Robles R 2019 · 2.67 FIP	28	SU	2.67	26.5%	5.3%	2.1%	.278	4.57	23.3%	10.8%	128	+1.90	2.67	469	72
Anthony Swarzak R 2015 · 2.83 FIP	29	SU	2.83	21.3%	4.9%	1.6%	.386	3.60	26.1%	19.8%	181	+0.77	2.35	260	72
Jason Stoffel R 2016 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	27.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	103	72
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	72
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	71
Addison Reed R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	28	SU	3.52	24.8%	3.9%	3.7%	.261	4.68	18.2%	13.2%	56	+1.16	1.67	266	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	24.6%	5.2%	1.10	3.61
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Seunghwan Oh ('18)	1.0	69	27.7%	5.9%	1.00	2.78
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36