Justin Slaten
P
Boston Red Sox
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 222 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA3.68
FIP3.85
xFIP3.18
SIERA3.00
K%22.6%
BB%6.5%
K-BB%16.0%
IP35
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†6060
FB Velo
p8196.7
Whiff%
p6727.9%
K%
p2318.2%
xwOBA vs
p710.292
FB+0.8 (25%)
CT (52%)
CU (1%)
SL (21%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 20 | 19 | 82 | 366 | 110 | 31 | 17 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 6.01 | 6.08 | -0.9 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 26 | 5 | 52 | 246 | 66 | 48 | 6 | 21.3% | 21.7% | 3.3% | 6.79 | 5.84 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 40 | 1 | 60 | 235 | 86 | 20 | 10 | 30.3% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 2.87 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 45 | 0 | 56 | 227 | 59 | 10 | 4 | 25.9% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 3.07 | 2.46 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 39 | 0 | 37 | 149 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 18.2% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 3.89 | 3.47 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | BOS | 14 | — | 14 | 59 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 24.7% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 3.59 | 3.66 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 17 | 73 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 26.8% | 8.0% | 2.1% | 2.90 | 2.95 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 34 | 10 | 4 | 24.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 3.75 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 33 | 10 | 4 | 23.5% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 3.88 | 3.93 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 31 | 10 | 4 | 22.9% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 4.00 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 29 | 10 | 4 | 22.3% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 27 | 10 | 4 | 21.7% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 175 | 25 | 291 | 1240 | 300 | 129 | 53 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 4.3% | 4.58 | 4.72 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 120 | 17 | 200 | 853 | 206 | 89 | 36 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 4.3% | 4.58 | 4.72 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Slaten (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.66 | 24.7% | 6.5% | 2.6% | — | 3.93 | 23.5% | 16.4% | 98 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Chris Hatcher R 2028 · 2.93 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.93 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.62 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.69 | 2.93 | 176 | 83 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 77 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2029 · 3.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.21 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.66 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.45 | 2.80 | 284 | 77 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 77 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 76 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.07 | 22.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.78 | 28.3% | 18.0% | 75 | +0.71 | 3.07 | 185 | 76 |
| Matt Bush R 2028 · 2.88 FIP | 30 | SW | 2.88 | 24.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .232 | 3.96 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 75 | +1.08 | 2.88 | 249 | 75 |
| Kelvin Herrera R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.88 | 20.7% | 5.4% | 3.3% | .285 | 3.90 | 22.6% | 15.4% | 51 | +0.02 | 2.35 | 297 | 75 |
| Cody Mincey R 2027 · 2.48 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.48 | 21.8% | 6.0% | 0.9% | .239 | 5.59 | 13.9% | 5.5% | 114 | +3.11 | 2.48 | 147 | 74 |
| Anthony Swarzak R 2027 · 2.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.83 | 21.3% | 4.9% | 1.7% | .386 | 3.47 | 26.1% | 19.8% | 181 | +0.64 | 2.35 | 260 | 74 |
| Ryan Pressly R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.77 | 24.2% | 5.6% | 3.7% | .251 | 2.32 | 34.0% | 27.5% | 146 | -1.45 | 1.82 | 586 | 74 |
| C.C. Lee R 2026 · 2.58 FIP | 28 | SW | 2.58 | 23.9% | 7.0% | 1.1% | .323 | 3.07 | 30.9% | 21.5% | 63 | +0.49 | 2.58 | 121 | 74 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 73 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2027 · 2.99 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.99 | 22.7% | 4.9% | 2.2% | .345 | 4.56 | 20.6% | 12.8% | 147 | +1.57 | 2.99 | 227 | 73 |
| Liam Hendriks R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.09 | 28.6% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .303 | 1.71 | 35.2% | 30.1% | 160 | -1.38 | 0.60 | 495 | 73 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.51 | 27.2% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 103 | 72 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.77 | 21.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.89 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 65 | +0.12 | 2.26 | 172 | 72 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 2.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 2.59 | 24.4% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .278 | 3.17 | 26.0% | 16.6% | 56 | +0.58 | 2.59 | 302 | 72 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.54 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .277 | 3.88 | 21.1% | 12.7% | 203 | +0.34 | 2.86 | 596 | 72 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 72 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2030
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2027 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2028 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2029 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $6M | +$1M | ||