Justin Slaten

P Boston Red Sox

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 222 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBRPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	45	0	56	3.07	2.45	26.0%	4.4%	1.4	K 25.9% · BB 4.0% · FIP 2.43
2025	27	MIX2 levels	39	0	37	3.89	3.26	20.1%	6.0%	0.6	K 18.2% · BB 5.8% · FIP 3.53
2026	28	MIX3 levels	38	2	33	4.32	2.89	29.5%	6.2%	0.7	K 28.5% · BB 5.8% · FIP 3.08
2027PROJ	29	MLBBOS	21	0	22	3.50	3.40	26.5%	5.1%	0.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBBOS	40	0	42	3.56	3.60	25.8%	5.4%	0.5
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBBOS	37	0	39	3.73	3.84	25.0%	5.7%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

K%84

FB Velo79

CompsDavid Carpenter (age 29) · Jumbo Diaz (age 30) · Kiko Calero (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9890vR 82

ERA3.50

FIP3.40

K%26.5%

BB%5.1%

K-BB%21.4%

Proj IP24

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6565

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7996.6

Whiff%

p5025.2%

p8428.5%

xwOBA vs

p900.266

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	20	19	82	366	110	31	17	95%	4.1	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	6.6%	6.01	6.00	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	20	19	82	366	110	31	17	95%	4.1	30.1%	8.5%	21.6%	4.6%	6.01	4.24	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	5	52	246	66	48	6	19%	2.0	21.3%	21.7%	-0.4%	3.2%	6.79	5.83	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	5	52	246	66	48	6	19%	2.0	26.8%	19.5%	7.3%	2.4%	6.79	4.84	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	60	235	86	20	10	2%	1.5	30.3%	8.7%	21.7%	5.5%	2.87	4.63	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	1	60	235	86	20	10	2%	1.5	36.6%	8.5%	28.1%	4.3%	2.87	3.40	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	56	227	59	10	4	0%	1.2	25.9%	4.0%	21.9%	1.8%	3.07	2.43	+1.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	56	227	59	10	4	0%	1.2	25.9%	4.0%	21.9%	1.8%	3.07	2.43	+1.4
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	56	227	59	10	4	0%	1.2	26.0%	4.4%	21.6%	1.8%	3.07	2.45	+1.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	37	149	30	9	3	0%	0.9	18.2%	5.8%	12.4%	2.2%	3.89	3.53	+0.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	37	149	30	9	3	0%	0.9	18.2%	5.8%	12.4%	2.2%	3.89	3.53	+0.4
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	37	149	30	9	3	0%	0.9	20.1%	6.0%	14.1%	2.0%	3.89	3.26	+0.6
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	2	33	146	43	9	4	5%	0.9	28.5%	5.8%	22.6%	3.0%	4.32	3.08	+0.6
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	2	33	146	43	9	4	5%	0.9	28.5%	5.8%	22.6%	3.0%	4.32	3.08	+0.6
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	2	33	146	43	9	4	5%	0.9	29.5%	6.2%	23.3%	2.7%	4.32	2.89	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			116	0	121	498	122	25	11	0%	1.0	24.5%	5.0%	19.5%	2.2%	3.73	2.88	+2.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	BOS	21	0	22	93	25	5	3	0%	1.0	26.5%	5.1%	21.4%	2.8%	3.50	3.40	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	BOS	43	0	45	189	49	10	6	0%	1.0	25.8%	5.4%	20.4%	3.0%	3.56	3.60	+0.5
2029	31	MLB MLE	BOS	39	0	41	173	43	10	5	0%	1.0	25.0%	5.7%	19.3%	3.2%	3.73	3.84	+0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	BOS	40	0	42	177	46	10	5	0%	1.1	25.8%	5.4%	20.4%	3.0%	3.56	3.60	+0.5
2029	31	MLB CTX	BOS	37	0	39	165	41	9	5	0%	1.1	25.0%	5.7%	19.3%	3.2%	3.73	3.84	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		193	0	202	841	209	44	22	0%	1.0	24.9%	5.2%	19.6%	2.6%	3.69	3.07	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	833	207	44	22	0%	1.0	24.9%	5.2%	19.6%	2.6%	3.69	3.07	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		209	27	321	1372	337	136	57	13%	1.5	24.6%	9.9%	14.7%	4.1%	4.60	4.55	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	17	200	856	210	85	35	13%	1.5	24.6%	9.9%	14.7%	4.1%	4.60	4.55	+3.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 51 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.63 (+1.26)K% 37.4% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.44%	—	×0.810	30.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.88%	—	×1.100	8.67%
HR / BF /BF	4.43%	÷0.974	×1.200	5.46%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARound Rock Express · 8 IPFIP 3.76 → 4.08 (+0.32)K% 31.2% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.25%	—	×0.860	26.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×0.900	11.25%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.035	×1.100	3.32%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.76 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 51 IPFIP 4.73 → 5.83 (+1.10)K% 26.3% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.34%	—	×0.810	21.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.75%	—	×1.100	21.73%
HR / BF /BF	2.47%	÷0.915	×1.200	3.24%

Result: FIP 4.73 → 5.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hickory Crawdads · 82 IPFIP 4.18 → 6.00 (+1.81)K% 30.1% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.05%	—	×0.770	23.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.47%	—	×1.150	9.74%
HR / BF /BF	4.64%	÷0.881	×1.250	6.59%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 4.18 → 6.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Slaten (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.40	26.5%	5.1%	2.8%	—	3.71	25.4%	19.9%	86	+0.31	—	—	—
David Carpenter R 2014 · 2.84 FIP	29	SU	2.84	25.9%	6.2%	2.1%	.327	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	50	+2.14	2.66	275	77
Jumbo Diaz R 2014 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	26.1%	7.0%	2.0%	.283	3.64	23.0%	15.0%	186	+0.77	2.80	319	77
Kiko Calero R 2004 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	28.0%	5.4%	3.0%	.206	3.33	23.1%	14.6%	154	+0.28	2.27	298	76
Matt Bush R 2016 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.94	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.07	2.87	249	73
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	73
Jeff Zimmerman R 2001 · 3.58 FIP	28	SU	3.58	26.4%	5.5%	3.7%	.216	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	229	73
Jake Sanchez R 2019 · 2.83 FIP	29	SU	2.83	23.8%	4.7%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	361	72
Daniel Robert R 2024 · 2.90 FIP	29	SU	2.90	26.6%	7.0%	2.1%	.190	3.14	24.1%	14.6%	43	+0.24	2.32	186	72
Akinori Otsuka R 2004 · 2.61 FIP	32	SU	2.61	27.9%	6.4%	1.9%	.251	2.78	20.3%	13.4%	155	+0.17	2.39	232	72
Kaleb Fleck R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.6%	5.9%	3.1%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	177	72
Cory Wade R 2012 · 4.15 FIP	29	SU	4.15	22.2%	4.1%	4.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	178	71
Mike Fyhrie R 2000 · 3.08 FIP	30	SU	3.08	19.5%	5.0%	1.8%	.309	3.87	13.7%	4.4%	69	+0.79	3.08	173	70
John Brebbia R 2019 · 2.89 FIP	29	SU	2.89	28.6%	8.2%	2.1%	.285	3.34	22.8%	17.4%	102	+0.45	2.89	576	70
Ryan Boyer R 2024 · 2.95 FIP	27	SU	2.95	24.1%	3.6%	2.6%	.218	4.78	21.2%	13.8%	53	+1.83	1.92	132	70
Wilton Lopez R 2012 · 2.51 FIP	29	SU	2.51	20.8%	2.3%	1.6%	.291	3.30	15.0%	10.6%	75	+0.79	2.51	299	70
Jason Motte R 2011 · 2.22 FIP	29	SU	2.22	23.5%	5.2%	0.8%	.249	4.02	26.9%	20.5%	97	+1.80	2.22	387	70
Austin Adams R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	29	SU	3.40	21.1%	6.1%	2.4%	.376	5.80	20.8%	10.2%	60	+2.40	3.40	162	70
Frank Francisco R 2009 · 3.22 FIP	29	SU	3.22	28.1%	6.9%	3.0%	.270	3.45	25.2%	17.1%	146	+0.23	2.92	369	69
Jaye Chapman R 2016 · 3.25 FIP	29	SU	3.25	24.6%	6.4%	2.6%	.274	5.51	13.0%	-0.4%	31	+2.26	3.10	162	69
Jon Edwards R 2018 · 2.40 FIP	30	SU	2.40	30.3%	7.7%	1.6%	.304	4.43	25.1%	13.5%	49	+2.03	2.40	132	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	39	25.1%	5.4%	1.00	3.67
Nick Vincent ('21)	2.1	46	24.1%	6.2%	0.94	3.30
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Héctor Rondón ('20)	2.2	54	24.2%	7.4%	1.03	3.49
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*