Connor Brogdon — OGILVIE

Connor Brogdon P Cleveland Guardians

Age 31 RHP 6'6" / 205 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.29

FIP4.45

K%23.6%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%16.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p4120.9%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

CT (9%)

CH (39%)

CU (3%)

FB-2.6 (48%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	23	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	31	7	69	278	79	16	3	23%	2.2	21.0%	6.8%	14.2%	1.5%	2.47	2.98	—
2018	23	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	31	7	69	278	79	16	3	23%	2.2	28.4%	5.8%	22.7%	1.1%	2.47	2.08	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	0	76	296	106	24	9	0%	1.5	29.7%	8.8%	20.9%	3.5%	2.61	3.64	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	51	0	76	296	106	24	9	0%	1.5	35.8%	8.1%	27.7%	3.0%	2.61	2.80	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	9	0	11	44	17	4	3	0%	1.3	38.6%	9.1%	29.5%	6.8%	3.97	4.73	-0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	9	0	11	44	17	4	3	0%	1.3	38.6%	9.1%	29.5%	6.8%	3.97	4.60	-0.0
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	2	59	238	52	16	6	4%	1.0	21.3%	6.8%	14.5%	2.4%	3.38	3.47	+0.8
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	2	59	238	52	16	6	4%	1.0	21.8%	6.7%	15.1%	2.5%	3.38	3.48	+0.7
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	1	53	231	67	17	6	2%	0.9	26.6%	5.9%	20.7%	3.0%	3.21	3.23	+0.8
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	1	53	231	67	17	6	2%	0.9	29.0%	7.4%	21.6%	2.6%	3.21	3.01	+1.0
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	3	57	251	60	28	9	6%	1.1	21.6%	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	4.74	4.57	-0.0
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	3	57	251	60	28	9	6%	1.1	21.6%	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	4.74	4.57	-0.0
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	3	57	251	60	28	9	6%	1.1	23.9%	11.2%	12.7%	3.6%	4.74	4.52	+0.0
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	17	80	24	11	6	0%	0.9	28.2%	8.0%	20.1%	4.4%	6.88	4.15	+0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	17	80	24	11	6	0%	0.9	28.2%	8.0%	20.1%	4.4%	6.88	4.15	+0.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	0	17	80	24	11	6	0%	0.9	30.0%	13.8%	16.2%	7.5%	6.88	6.81	-0.4
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	1	69	317	79	24	18	2%	1.1	23.3%	7.3%	16.1%	5.9%	6.91	5.27	-0.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	1	69	317	79	24	18	2%	1.1	23.3%	7.3%	16.1%	5.9%	6.91	5.27	-0.6
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	1	69	317	79	24	18	2%	1.1	24.9%	7.6%	17.4%	5.7%	6.91	5.24	-0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			201	2	207	879	209	67	40	1%	1.0	23.8%	7.6%	16.2%	4.6%	4.43	4.56	-0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	27	0	27	116	27	11	6	0%	1.0	20.9%	4.5%	16.4%	7.5%	5.74	6.01	-0.5
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	27	0	27	116	27	11	6	0%	1.0	20.9%	4.5%	16.4%	7.5%	5.74	6.01	-0.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	CLE	12	0	11	49	13	8	1	0%	0.9	26.5%	16.3%	10.2%	2.0%	6.35	4.05	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	CLE	15	0	15	67	14	3	5	0%	1.0	20.9%	4.5%	16.4%	7.5%	5.28	6.00	-0.3
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	CLE	15	0	15	67	14	3	5	0%	1.0	20.9%	4.5%	16.4%	7.5%	5.28	6.00	-0.3
ROS	31	MLB MLE	CLE	5	0	5	23	5	2	1	0%	1.1	23.6%	7.3%	16.3%	4.4%	4.29	4.45	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	CLE	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	23.6%	7.3%	16.3%	4.4%	4.29	4.45	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	32	139	32	13	7	—	—	23.3%	9.1%	14.2%	5.0%	5.49	5.75	-0.4
FULL	31	MLB A+C	CLE	—	—	21	88	32	13	7	—	—	37.0%	14.5%	22.5%	8.0%	8.50	6.20	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	CLE	56	0	59	250	58	19	12	0%	1.1	23.1%	7.7%	15.3%	4.9%	5.05	5.22	-0.4
2028	33	MLB MLE	CLE	52	0	54	229	51	19	12	0%	1.0	22.2%	8.2%	14.0%	5.2%	5.32	5.50	-0.6
2027	32	MLB CTX	CLE	53	0	56	236	55	18	12	0%	1.1	23.1%	7.7%	15.3%	4.9%	5.05	5.22	-0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	CLE	50	0	52	220	49	18	11	0%	1.0	22.2%	8.2%	14.0%	5.2%	5.32	5.50	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		309	2	321	1357	318	105	64	1%	1.0	23.4%	7.7%	15.7%	4.7%	4.68	4.69	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		193	1	200	847	198	66	40	1%	1.0	23.4%	7.7%	15.7%	4.7%	4.68	4.69	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		363	14	438	1851	450	140	70	4%	1.2	24.3%	7.6%	16.8%	3.8%	4.11	4.07	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		166	6	200	845	206	64	32	4%	1.2	24.3%	7.6%	16.8%	3.8%	4.11	4.07	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Brogdon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	24.5%	7.8%	4.3%	—	5.35	22.7%	14.7%	114	+0.58	—	—	—
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	88
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	82
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	81
Logan Ondrusek R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	33	SU	5.51	23.8%	7.4%	6.3%	.353	5.51	17.5%	9.2%	120	+0.00	4.34	138	80
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	80
Josh Fields R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	26.9%	6.3%	4.3%	.216	5.01	20.5%	12.9%	66	+1.03	1.90	238	80
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	79
Justin Miller R 2018 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	27.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.248	4.82	24.8%	18.8%	66	+0.58	2.63	279	79
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	79
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	78
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	77
Rubby De La Rosa R 2019 · 4.21 FIP	30	SU	4.21	27.7%	8.0%	4.4%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	281	77
Fernando Salas R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.8%	6.1%	4.1%	.256	3.90	20.1%	14.5%	151	-0.39	2.71	288	77
Gregory Infante R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	31	SU	4.07	22.0%	4.6%	4.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	230	77
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	77
Pedro Beato R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.1%	6.4%	2.9%	.266	3.49	16.8%	9.3%	29	-0.22	3.47	295	76
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	76
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	76
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	75
Matt Bush R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	31	SU	3.60	24.2%	7.9%	2.8%	.321	4.72	17.6%	4.6%	23	+1.12	2.87	249	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	23.3%	7.9%	1.86	4.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Elieser Hernández ('22)	1.4	58	22.2%	7.5%	2.13	5.04
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50