Connor Brogdon
P
Cleveland Guardians
Age 31
RHP
6'6" / 205 lbs
MLB
2026 ROS PROJECTION15 act + 49 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 106
ERA4.48
FIP4.67
K%23.9%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%16.2%
ROS IP49
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5094.5
Whiff%
p5926.7%
K%
p4120.9%
xwOBA vs
p220.345
CT (9%)
CH (39%)
CU (3%)
FB-2.6 (48%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 31 | 7 | 69 | 278 | 79 | 16 | 3 | 23% | 2.2 | 21.0% | 6.8% | 14.2% | 1.5% | 2.47 | 3.01 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 31 | 7 | 69 | 278 | 79 | 16 | 3 | 23% | 2.2 | 28.4% | 5.8% | 22.7% | 1.1% | 2.47 | 2.08 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 0 | 76 | 296 | 106 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.7% | 8.8% | 20.9% | 3.7% | 2.61 | 3.73 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 0 | 76 | 296 | 106 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.5 | 35.8% | 8.1% | 27.7% | 3.0% | 2.61 | 2.80 | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 9 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 38.6% | 9.1% | 29.5% | 6.8% | 3.97 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 9 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 38.6% | 9.1% | 29.5% | 6.8% | 3.97 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 2 | 59 | 238 | 52 | 16 | 6 | 4% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 6.8% | 14.5% | 2.5% | 3.38 | 3.52 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 2 | 59 | 238 | 52 | 16 | 6 | 4% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 15.1% | 2.5% | 3.38 | 3.48 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 1 | 53 | 231 | 67 | 17 | 6 | 2% | 0.9 | 26.6% | 5.9% | 20.7% | 3.1% | 3.21 | 3.29 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 1 | 53 | 231 | 67 | 17 | 6 | 2% | 0.9 | 29.0% | 7.4% | 21.6% | 2.6% | 3.21 | 3.01 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 3 | 57 | 251 | 60 | 28 | 9 | 6% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.74 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 3 | 57 | 251 | 60 | 28 | 9 | 6% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.74 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 0 | 17 | 80 | 24 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.9% | 9.4% | 20.5% | 5.0% | 6.88 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 0 | 17 | 80 | 24 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.0% | 13.8% | 16.2% | 7.5% | 6.88 | 6.81 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 1 | 69 | 317 | 79 | 24 | 18 | 2% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 7.7% | 16.1% | 6.1% | 6.91 | 5.41 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 1 | 69 | 317 | 79 | 24 | 18 | 2% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 7.6% | 17.4% | 5.7% | 6.91 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 15 | 0 | 15 | 67 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 4.5% | 16.4% | 7.5% | 5.28 | 6.00 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | CLE | 46 | 0 | 49 | 205 | 49 | 16 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 7.7% | 16.2% | 4.8% | 4.48 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | CLE | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 50 | 16 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 7.7% | 16.2% | 4.8% | 4.48 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 64 | 272 | 63 | 19 | 15 | — | — | 23.2% | 6.9% | 16.3% | 5.4% | 4.67 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 64 | 270 | 63 | 19 | 15 | — | — | 23.4% | 7.0% | 16.4% | 5.5% | 4.67 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 56 | 0 | 59 | 250 | 58 | 20 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 8.1% | 15.3% | 5.0% | 5.11 | 5.29 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 52 | 0 | 54 | 229 | 52 | 20 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 14.0% | 5.3% | 5.39 | 5.57 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 55 | 19 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 8.1% | 15.3% | 5.0% | 5.11 | 5.29 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 49 | 19 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 14.0% | 5.3% | 5.39 | 5.57 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 350 | 2 | 364 | 1540 | 363 | 121 | 73 | 1% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 7.8% | 15.7% | 4.8% | 4.68 | 4.72 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 192 | 1 | 200 | 846 | 200 | 67 | 40 | 1% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 7.8% | 15.7% | 4.8% | 4.68 | 4.72 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 351 | 14 | 427 | 1802 | 445 | 142 | 68 | 4% | 1.2 | 24.7% | 7.9% | 16.8% | 3.8% | 4.05 | 4.10 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 7 | 200 | 844 | 208 | 67 | 32 | 4% | 1.2 | 24.7% | 7.9% | 16.8% | 3.8% | 4.05 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Brogdon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.85 | 24.9% | 8.3% | 4.4% | — | 5.42 | 23.0% | 14.7% | 114 | +0.57 | — | — | — |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 87 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2028 · 5.45 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.45 | 23.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | .353 | 5.61 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 120 | +0.16 | 4.35 | 138 | 81 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 80 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .278 | 3.50 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.27 | 426 | 79 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 26.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | .216 | 5.10 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 66 | +0.87 | 1.86 | 238 | 79 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 78 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 78 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 77 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 77 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.24 | 27.9% | 7.4% | 4.7% | .248 | 4.79 | 24.8% | 18.8% | 66 | +0.55 | 2.54 | 279 | 77 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | .266 | 3.41 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 29 | -0.38 | 3.40 | 295 | 76 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.04 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 281 | 76 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 76 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 76 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 75 |
| Fernando Salas R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 21.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | .256 | 4.04 | 20.1% | 14.5% | 151 | -0.25 | 2.80 | 288 | 75 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 3.76 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.32 | 1.74 | 468 | 73 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 73 |
| Alex Wilson R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.25 | 17.6% | 5.3% | 3.6% | .232 | 5.01 | 19.4% | 13.4% | 62 | +0.76 | 3.40 | 326 | 71 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.88 | 24.8% | 8.4% | 3.3% | .324 | 3.04 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 162 | -0.84 | 2.56 | 268 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 23.7% | 8.3% | 1.90 | 5.03 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Elieser Hernández ('22) | 5 | 58 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 2.13 | 5.04 |
| Chris Young ('17) | 3 | 81 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 1.90 | 4.76 |