Connor Brogdon

P Cleveland Guardians

Age 32 RHP 6'6" / 205 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX3 levels	18	0	17	6.88	6.81	30.0%	13.8%	-0.4	K 29.2% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.06
2025	30	MIX2 levels	60	1	69	6.91	5.24	24.9%	7.6%	-0.6	K 23.6% · BB 7.3% · FIP 5.24
2026	31	MIX2 levels	28	0	27	5.60	5.11	23.5%	9.2%	-0.2	K 21.4% · BB 4.3% · FIP 5.76
2027PROJ	32	MLBCLE	53	0	56	4.61	4.69	24.1%	6.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBCLE	37	0	39	4.82	4.97	23.3%	7.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ90% MLB	34	MLBCLE	26	0	27	5.09	5.27	22.4%	7.7%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo51

K%45

xwOBA vs22

CompsSergio Santos (age 32) · Adrian Ramirez (age 31) · Mike Broadway (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.61

FIP4.69

K%24.1%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%17.4%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p5526.1%

p4521.4%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	23	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	31	7	69	278	79	16	3	23%	2.2	21.0%	6.8%	14.2%	1.5%	2.47	2.98	—
2018	23	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	31	7	69	278	79	16	3	23%	2.2	28.4%	5.8%	22.7%	1.1%	2.47	2.08	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	0	76	296	106	24	9	0%	1.5	29.7%	8.8%	20.9%	3.5%	2.61	3.64	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	51	0	76	296	106	24	9	0%	1.5	35.8%	8.1%	27.7%	3.0%	2.61	2.80	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	9	0	11	44	17	4	3	0%	1.3	38.6%	9.1%	29.5%	6.8%	3.97	4.73	-0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	9	0	11	44	17	4	3	0%	1.3	38.6%	9.1%	29.5%	6.8%	3.97	4.60	-0.0
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	2	59	238	52	16	6	4%	1.0	21.3%	6.8%	14.5%	2.4%	3.38	3.47	+0.8
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	2	59	238	52	16	6	4%	1.0	21.8%	6.7%	15.1%	2.5%	3.38	3.48	+0.7
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	1	53	231	67	17	6	2%	0.9	26.6%	5.9%	20.7%	3.0%	3.21	3.23	+0.8
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	1	53	231	67	17	6	2%	0.9	29.0%	7.4%	21.6%	2.6%	3.21	3.01	+1.0
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	3	57	251	60	28	9	6%	1.1	22.0%	10.6%	11.5%	3.6%	4.74	4.53	+0.0
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	3	57	251	60	28	9	6%	1.1	23.9%	11.2%	12.7%	3.6%	4.74	4.52	+0.0
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	17	80	24	11	6	0%	0.9	29.2%	8.0%	21.1%	4.4%	6.88	4.06	+0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	17	80	24	11	6	0%	0.9	29.2%	8.0%	21.1%	4.4%	6.88	4.06	+0.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	0	17	80	24	11	6	0%	0.9	30.0%	13.8%	16.2%	7.5%	6.88	6.81	-0.4
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	1	69	317	79	24	18	2%	1.1	23.6%	7.3%	16.3%	5.9%	6.91	5.24	-0.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	1	69	317	79	24	18	2%	1.1	23.6%	7.3%	16.3%	5.9%	6.91	5.24	-0.6
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	1	69	317	79	24	18	2%	1.1	24.9%	7.6%	17.4%	5.7%	6.91	5.24	-0.6
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	27	119	28	11	6	0%	1.0	21.4%	4.3%	17.1%	7.2%	5.60	5.76	-0.4
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	27	119	28	11	6	0%	1.0	21.4%	4.3%	17.1%	7.2%	5.60	5.76	-0.4
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	27	119	28	11	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.2%	14.3%	5.0%	5.60	5.11	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			202	2	208	882	210	67	40	1%	1.0	23.8%	7.6%	16.2%	4.5%	4.41	4.55	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	CLE	53	0	56	236	57	16	10	0%	1.1	24.1%	6.8%	17.4%	4.4%	4.61	4.69	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	CLE	39	0	41	175	41	13	8	0%	1.1	23.3%	7.2%	16.1%	4.6%	4.82	4.97	-0.2
2029	34	MLB MLE	CLE	28	0	29	124	28	10	6	0%	1.1	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	4.9%	5.09	5.27	-0.2
2030	35	MLB MLE	CLE	18	0	19	81	17	7	4	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.2%	13.2%	5.3%	5.40	5.61	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	CLE	37	0	39	165	38	12	8	0%	1.1	23.3%	7.2%	16.1%	4.6%	4.82	4.97	-0.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	CLE	26	0	27	114	26	9	6	0%	1.0	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	4.9%	5.09	5.27	-0.2
2030	35	MLB CTX	CLE	15	0	16	68	14	6	4	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.2%	13.2%	5.3%	5.40	5.61	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		280	2	290	1230	289	93	57	1%	1.0	23.5%	7.6%	15.9%	4.6%	4.59	4.62	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		193	1	200	847	199	64	39	1%	1.0	23.5%	7.6%	15.9%	4.6%	4.59	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		364	14	439	1854	454	140	70	4%	1.2	24.5%	7.5%	17.0%	3.8%	4.10	4.04	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		166	6	200	845	207	64	32	4%	1.2	24.5%	7.5%	17.0%	3.8%	4.10	4.04	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAColumbus Clippers · 11 IPFIP 4.05 → 4.27 (+0.22)K% 26.5% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.53%	—	×0.860	22.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.33%	—	×0.900	14.69%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.05 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 22 IPFIP 5.28 → 5.84 (+0.56)K% 25.4% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.42%	—	×0.860	21.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.47%	—	×0.900	7.63%
HR / BF /BF	5.93%	÷0.989	×1.100	6.60%

Result: FIP 5.28 → 5.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 13 IPFIP 3.33 → 4.06 (+0.73)K% 33.9% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.93%	—	×0.860	29.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.93%	—	×0.900	8.04%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷0.896	×1.100	4.38%

Result: FIP 3.33 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 28 IPFIP 4.09 → 4.38 (+0.30)K% 27.4% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.42%	—	×0.860	23.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.10%	—	×0.900	10.89%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.028	×1.100	3.45%

Result: FIP 4.09 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 9 IPFIP 1.53 → 2.02 (+0.49)K% 39.5% → 34.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.53%	—	×0.880	34.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.95%	—	×1.050	14.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.039	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 1.53 → 2.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 32 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.94 (+0.84)K% 33.1% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.08%	—	×0.880	29.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.02%	—	×1.050	9.47%
HR / BF /BF	3.01%	÷0.866	×1.100	3.82%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAReading Fightin Phils · 24 IPFIP 2.86 → 3.71 (+0.85)K% 44.3% → 35.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.32%	—	×0.810	35.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.95%	—	×1.100	8.75%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.182	×1.200	4.61%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 136).

Result: FIP 2.86 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Clearwater Threshers · 20 IPFIP 2.09 → 3.04 (+0.95)K% 30.7% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.67%	—	×0.770	23.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.150	7.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷0.949	×1.250	1.76%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.09 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Brogdon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	24.1%	6.8%	4.4%	—	5.20	22.6%	15.0%	90	+0.51	—	—	—
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	82
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	78
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	76
Gregory Infante R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	31	SU	4.07	22.0%	4.6%	4.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	230	76
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	76
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	76
Frank Herrmann R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	32	SU	4.42	21.5%	4.8%	4.6%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	219	75
Chris Hatcher R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	32	SU	4.31	24.5%	7.4%	4.3%	.291	5.32	18.0%	8.4%	36	+1.01	2.51	246	75
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	75
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	74
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	74
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	72
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	71
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	71
Gerardo Sanchez R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	30	SU	3.58	20.5%	5.4%	2.8%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	137	71
Santiago Casilla R 2012 · 3.98 FIP	32	SU	3.98	20.2%	6.6%	3.2%	.246	3.23	21.6%	13.7%	166	-0.75	2.76	647	71
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	69
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	69
Jose Veras R 2013 · 3.51 FIP	32	SU	3.51	23.6%	8.3%	2.5%	.234	4.28	21.9%	10.2%	65	+0.77	3.37	422	69
Kerry Ligtenberg R 2003 · 4.06 FIP	32	SU	4.06	19.0%	4.5%	3.6%	.283	3.65	18.6%	11.8%	55	-0.41	2.94	381	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	44	23.5%	7.9%	1.78	4.60
Erik Swanson ('25)	1.3	53	25.7%	6.8%	1.66	4.20
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Heath Hembree ('23)	1.8	51	25.4%	9.4%	1.67	4.37
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*
Pete Ladd ('79-'86, 0 WAR*)	1.4	72	24.6%*	7.8%*	1.53*	4.42*
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*