Connor Brogdon
P
Cleveland Guardians
+0.1
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'6" / 205 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.95
FIP4.94
xFIP4.04
SIERA3.53
K%23.9%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%15.5%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL4545
CMD5050
K†6060
FB Velo
p6495.5
Whiff%
p7629.3%
K%
p6324.6%
xwOBA vs
p570.305
CT (9%)
CH (39%)
CU (3%)
FB-2.6 (48%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 31 | 7 | 69 | 278 | 79 | 16 | 3 | 21.0% | 6.8% | 1.4% | 2.47 | 2.98 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 51 | 0 | 76 | 296 | 106 | 24 | 9 | 29.7% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 2.61 | 3.60 | +1.3 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 9 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 17 | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | 3.97 | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 57 | 2 | 59 | 238 | 52 | 16 | 6 | 21.3% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 3.38 | 3.53 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 57 | 1 | 53 | 231 | 67 | 17 | 6 | 26.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 3.21 | 3.30 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 53 | 3 | 57 | 251 | 60 | 28 | 9 | 22.3% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 18 | 0 | 17 | 80 | 24 | 11 | 6 | 29.9% | 9.4% | 4.4% | 6.88 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 60 | 1 | 69 | 317 | 79 | 24 | 18 | 23.8% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.91 | 5.41 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 7 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.43 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | CLE | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 43 | 15 | 7 | 25.4% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 4.87 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 47 | 200 | 49 | 17 | 8 | 24.7% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 5.10 | 4.08 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 46 | — | 46 | 192 | 46 | 16 | 8 | 24.2% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 4.90 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 43 | 16 | 8 | 23.5% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 4.98 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 40 | 16 | 8 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 4.6% | 5.10 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 36 | 15 | 8 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 5.24 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 33 | 14 | 7 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 4.8% | 5.39 | 5.50 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 343 | 14 | 419 | 1764 | 437 | 141 | 63 | 24.8% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 4.04 | 3.99 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 7 | 200 | 843 | 209 | 67 | 30 | 24.8% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 4.04 | 3.99 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Brogdon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 25.4% | 8.5% | 4.3% | — | 5.04 | 23.5% | 14.8% | 130 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 88 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 82 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 81 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2028 · 5.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.50 | 23.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | .353 | 5.51 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 120 | +0.01 | 4.34 | 138 | 79 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 79 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 78 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.5% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 281 | 78 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.09 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .278 | 3.53 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.56 | 2.31 | 403 | 78 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 77 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 77 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 77 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 76 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.19 | 26.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | .216 | 5.00 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 66 | +0.81 | 1.85 | 238 | 76 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.30 | 27.9% | 7.4% | 4.8% | .248 | 4.70 | 24.8% | 18.8% | 66 | +0.40 | 2.67 | 279 | 76 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 75 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.16 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .301 | 7.43 | 14.7% | -1.9% | 23 | +3.27 | 2.91 | 334 | 74 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 73 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 73 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .266 | 3.49 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 29 | -0.20 | 3.46 | 295 | 73 |
| Fernando Salas R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.17 | 21.8% | 6.1% | 3.9% | .256 | 3.82 | 20.1% | 14.5% | 151 | -0.35 | 2.65 | 288 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.