Luke Jackson

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 35 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	32	MIX2 levels	54	55	4.91	4.05	24.8%	11.2%	0.3	K 25.1% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.02
2025	33	MIX2 levels	55	53	4.22	3.79	18.2%	10.0%	0.5	K 17.4% · BB 10.5% · FIP 3.99
2026	34	MIX2 levels	18	21	5.91	3.24	25.3%	13.2%	—	K 19.6% · BB 12.5% · FIP 3.80
2027PROJ	35	MLBKC	6	6	4.52	4.62	20.1%	11.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ	36	MLBKC	26	27	4.80	4.99	19.1%	11.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ	37	MLBKC	10	11	5.15	5.39	18.0%	12.3%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo45

xwOBA vs42

K%17

CompsBrendan Donnelly (age 35) · Keiichi Yabu (age 36) · Jean Machi (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 101

ERA4.52

FIP4.62

K%20.1%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%9.1%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p1717.4%

xwOBA vs

p420.321

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	5	73	321	85	37	4	11%	1.6	23.6%	12.5%	11.1%	0.9%	4.33	3.21	+1.2
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	5	73	321	85	37	4	11%	1.6	26.5%	11.5%	15.0%	1.2%	4.33	3.00	+1.3
2016	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	58	270	62	39	10	0%	1.3	19.5%	15.3%	4.2%	4.1%	5.12	5.62	-0.7
2016	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	58	270	62	39	10	0%	1.3	23.0%	14.4%	8.5%	3.7%	5.12	5.22	-0.5
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	4	75	336	56	31	6	8%	1.4	15.8%	9.5%	6.4%	1.9%	5.16	3.98	+0.5
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	4	75	336	56	31	6	8%	1.4	16.7%	9.2%	7.4%	1.8%	5.16	3.89	+0.6
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	62	266	80	28	3	2%	1.4	28.5%	10.7%	17.8%	1.1%	3.48	2.67	+1.4
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	62	266	80	28	3	2%	1.4	30.1%	10.5%	19.5%	1.1%	3.48	2.50	+1.5
2019	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	70	0	73	315	106	22	10	0%	1.0	33.7%	7.0%	26.7%	3.2%	3.84	2.89	+1.4
2019	27	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	70	0	73	315	106	22	10	0%	1.0	33.7%	7.0%	26.7%	3.2%	3.84	2.88	+1.5
2020	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	19	0	26	132	20	13	2	0%	1.4	15.2%	9.8%	5.3%	1.5%	6.84	3.90	+0.2
2020	28	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	19	0	26	132	20	13	2	0%	1.4	15.2%	9.8%	5.3%	1.5%	6.84	4.05	+0.2
2021	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	71	0	64	261	70	27	6	0%	0.9	26.8%	10.3%	16.5%	2.3%	1.98	3.41	+0.9
2021	29	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	71	0	64	261	70	27	6	0%	0.9	26.8%	10.3%	16.5%	2.3%	1.98	3.40	+0.9
2023	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	1	41	176	56	18	3	2%	1.0	30.1%	9.1%	21.0%	2.3%	3.32	2.96	+0.8
2023	31	MIX RAW	4 levels	41	1	41	176	56	18	3	2%	1.0	31.8%	10.2%	21.6%	1.7%	3.32	2.63	+0.9
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	55	242	60	27	7	0%	1.0	25.1%	11.1%	14.0%	3.0%	4.91	4.02	+0.3
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	55	242	60	27	7	0%	1.0	25.1%	11.1%	14.0%	3.0%	4.91	4.02	+0.3
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	55	242	60	27	7	0%	1.0	24.8%	11.2%	13.6%	2.9%	4.91	4.05	+0.3
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	53	231	42	23	4	0%	1.0	17.4%	10.5%	6.8%	1.9%	4.22	3.99	+0.4
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	53	231	42	23	4	0%	1.0	17.4%	10.5%	6.8%	1.9%	4.22	3.99	+0.4
2025	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	53	231	42	23	4	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.0%	8.2%	1.7%	4.22	3.79	+0.5
2026	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	21	91	23	12	1	0%	1.2	19.6%	12.5%	7.1%	1.4%	5.91	3.80	—
2026	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	21	91	23	12	1	0%	1.2	19.6%	12.5%	7.1%	1.4%	5.91	3.80	—
2026	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	21	91	23	12	1	0%	1.2	25.3%	13.2%	12.1%	1.1%	5.91	3.24	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			390	0	409	1802	424	167	44	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.3%	2.4%	4.22	3.65	+4.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	KC	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	11.0%	9.1%	2.6%	4.52	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	KC	26	0	27	116	22	13	3	0%	1.1	19.1%	11.6%	7.5%	3.0%	4.80	4.99	-0.1
2029	37	MLB MLE	KC	11	0	11	47	9	6	2	0%	1.0	18.0%	12.3%	5.8%	3.4%	5.15	5.39	-0.1
2030	38	MLB MLE	KC	4	0	4	19	3	2	1	0%	1.1	16.9%	13.0%	3.9%	3.9%	5.55	5.82	-0.1
2028	36	MLB CTX	KC	26	0	27	114	22	13	3	0%	1.0	19.1%	11.6%	7.5%	3.0%	4.80	4.99	-0.1
2029	37	MLB CTX	KC	10	0	11	46	8	6	2	0%	1.1	18.0%	12.3%	5.8%	3.4%	5.15	5.39	-0.1
2030	38	MLB CTX	KC	4	0	4	17	3	2	1	0%	1.0	16.9%	13.0%	3.9%	3.9%	5.55	5.82	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		431	0	452	1984	458	189	50	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	2.5%	4.29	3.73	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	877	202	84	22	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	2.5%	4.29	3.73	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		515	11	601	2641	625	282	58	2%	1.2	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	2.2%	4.26	3.66	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		171	4	200	879	208	94	19	2%	1.2	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	2.2%	4.26	3.66	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 18 IPFIP 3.63 → 3.80 (+0.16)K% 22.8% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.78%	—	×0.860	19.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.92%	—	×0.900	12.53%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.39%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.63 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 4 IPFIP 2.33 → 2.53 (+0.20)K% 36.4% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.36%	—	×0.860	31.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×0.900	16.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.057	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.33 → 2.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 21 IPFIP 1.14 → 1.64 (+0.50)K% 41.5% → 36.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.46%	—	×0.880	36.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.20%	—	×1.050	12.80%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.970	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 1.14 → 1.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAGwinnett Braves · 24 IPFIP 4.16 → 4.58 (+0.43)K% 20.5% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.54%	—	×0.880	18.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.050	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.972	×1.100	2.02%

Result: FIP 4.16 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 24 IPFIP 4.39 → 5.23 (+0.84)K% 27.1% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.12%	—	×0.810	21.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.56%	—	×1.100	14.92%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷1.065	×1.200	3.82%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 4.39 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAARound Rock Express · 22 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.69 (+0.79)K% 30.0% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.880	26.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×1.050	17.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷0.839	×1.100	2.91%

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAARound Rock Express · 66 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.21 (+0.31)K% 26.9% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.87%	—	×0.880	23.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.90%	—	×1.050	12.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.02%	÷1.184	×1.100	0.95%

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Jackson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	20.1%	11.0%	2.6%	—	5.11	18.8%	7.0%	39	+0.49	—	—	—
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	85
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	81
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	78
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	76
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	300	75
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	75
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	74
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	74
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	73
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	35	SU	4.33	18.9%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	73
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	71
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	71
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	69
Toby Borland R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	35	SU	4.28	20.9%	8.1%	3.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	248	68
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	67
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	66
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	65
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	65
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	62
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	335	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	43	22.7%	10.6%	0.98	4.32
Jason Grilli ('17)	3.4	53	23.4%	9.8%	1.00	4.22
Rudy Seanez ('08)	2.8	43	23.1%	11.4%	0.93	4.11
Boone Logan ('18)	2.2	44	24.3%	10.1%	1.12	4.50
Tony Fossas ('88-'99, 2 WAR*)	2.1	42	21.9%*	9.3%*	0.99*	3.88*
Mike Fetters ('89-'04, 6 WAR*)	3.6	55	20.3%*	10.4%*	0.83*	3.70*
Ray Searage ('81-'90, 4 WAR*)	1.4	41	21.0%*	10.8%*	0.84*	3.70*