Luke Jackson — OGILVIE

Luke Jackson P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 34 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.48

K%21.2%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP58

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p1717.4%

xwOBA vs

p420.321

SL+2.5 (49%)

FB+1.3 (34%)

CU (15%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	5	73	321	85	37	4	11%	1.6	23.6%	12.5%	11.1%	0.9%	4.33	3.21	+1.2
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	5	73	321	85	37	4	11%	1.6	26.5%	11.5%	15.0%	1.2%	4.33	3.00	+1.3
2016	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	58	270	62	39	10	0%	1.3	19.5%	15.3%	4.2%	4.1%	5.12	5.62	-0.7
2016	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	58	270	62	39	10	0%	1.3	23.0%	14.4%	8.5%	3.7%	5.12	5.22	-0.5
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	4	75	336	56	31	6	8%	1.4	15.8%	9.5%	6.4%	1.9%	5.16	3.98	+0.5
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	4	75	336	56	31	6	8%	1.4	16.7%	9.2%	7.4%	1.8%	5.16	3.89	+0.6
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	62	266	80	28	3	2%	1.4	28.5%	10.7%	17.8%	1.1%	3.48	2.67	+1.4
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	62	266	80	28	3	2%	1.4	30.1%	10.5%	19.5%	1.1%	3.48	2.50	+1.5
2019	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	70	0	73	315	106	22	10	0%	1.0	33.7%	7.0%	26.7%	3.2%	3.84	2.89	+1.4
2019	27	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	70	0	73	315	106	22	10	0%	1.0	33.7%	7.0%	26.7%	3.2%	3.84	2.88	+1.5
2020	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	19	0	26	132	20	13	2	0%	1.4	15.2%	9.8%	5.3%	1.5%	6.84	3.90	+0.2
2020	28	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	19	0	26	132	20	13	2	0%	1.4	15.2%	9.8%	5.3%	1.5%	6.84	4.05	+0.2
2021	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	71	0	64	261	70	27	6	0%	0.9	26.8%	10.3%	16.5%	2.3%	1.98	3.41	+0.9
2021	29	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	71	0	64	261	70	27	6	0%	0.9	26.8%	10.3%	16.5%	2.3%	1.98	3.40	+0.9
2023	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	1	41	176	56	18	3	2%	1.0	30.1%	9.1%	21.0%	2.3%	3.32	2.96	+0.8
2023	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	1	41	176	56	18	3	2%	1.0	30.1%	9.1%	21.0%	2.3%	3.32	2.96	+0.8
2023	31	MIX RAW	4 levels	41	1	41	176	56	18	3	2%	1.0	31.8%	10.2%	21.6%	1.7%	3.32	2.63	+0.9
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	55	242	60	27	7	0%	1.0	25.1%	11.1%	14.0%	3.0%	4.91	4.02	+0.3
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	55	242	60	27	7	0%	1.0	25.1%	11.1%	14.0%	3.0%	4.91	4.02	+0.3
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	55	242	60	27	7	0%	1.0	24.8%	11.2%	13.6%	2.9%	4.91	4.05	+0.3
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	53	231	42	23	4	0%	1.0	17.4%	10.5%	6.8%	1.9%	4.22	3.99	+0.4
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	53	231	42	23	4	0%	1.0	17.4%	10.5%	6.8%	1.9%	4.22	3.99	+0.4
2025	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	53	231	42	23	4	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.0%	8.2%	1.7%	4.22	3.79	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			390	0	409	1802	424	167	44	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.3%	2.4%	4.22	3.65	+4.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	34	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	18	0	21	91	23	12	1	0%	1.2	18.9%	12.5%	6.4%	1.4%	5.91	3.85	—
YTD	34	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	18	0	21	91	23	12	1	0%	1.2	18.9%	12.5%	6.4%	1.4%	5.91	3.85	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	34	A RAW	KC	3	0	3	12	5	1	0	0%	1.0	41.7%	8.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.64	—
2026	34	AAA RAW	KC	15	0	18	79	18	11	1	0%	1.2	22.8%	13.9%	8.9%	1.3%	6.87	3.63	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	KC	50	0	52	220	44	24	7	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.1%	9.1%	3.0%	4.63	4.81	-0.2
2028	36	MLB MLE	KC	44	0	46	195	37	23	7	0%	1.0	19.2%	11.7%	7.5%	3.4%	4.96	5.18	-0.3
2029	37	MLB MLE	KC	38	0	40	170	31	21	6	0%	1.1	18.1%	12.3%	5.7%	3.8%	5.33	5.58	-0.5
2027	35	MLB CTX	KC	50	0	52	220	44	24	7	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.1%	9.1%	3.0%	4.63	4.81	-0.2
2028	36	MLB CTX	KC	44	0	46	194	37	23	7	0%	1.0	19.2%	11.7%	7.5%	3.4%	4.96	5.18	-0.3
2029	37	MLB CTX	KC	38	0	40	169	31	21	6	0%	1.1	18.1%	12.3%	5.7%	3.8%	5.33	5.58	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		522	0	548	2386	536	235	63	0%	1.0	22.5%	9.9%	12.6%	2.7%	4.40	3.91	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	871	196	86	23	0%	1.0	22.5%	9.9%	12.6%	2.7%	4.40	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		515	11	601	2641	625	282	58	2%	1.2	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	2.2%	4.26	3.66	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		171	4	200	879	208	94	19	2%	1.2	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	2.2%	4.26	3.66	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Jackson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	21.2%	10.5%	2.6%	—	5.16	19.2%	7.6%	138	+0.68	—	—	—
Jim Johnson R 2017 · 3.89 FIP	34	SU	3.89	23.8%	8.6%	3.1%	.309	4.48	16.8%	9.0%	63	+0.59	2.56	251	82
Carlos Torres R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	34	SU	4.51	17.4%	9.9%	3.0%	.304	3.66	19.8%	11.6%	113	-0.85	2.89	326	82
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	81
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	80
Dustin McGowan R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	22.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.230	4.58	19.4%	12.7%	78	+0.76	3.82	208	80
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	4.12	186	78
Brad Peacock R 2022 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	23.9%	10.6%	2.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	533	77
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	76
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	76
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	76
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	76
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	75
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	147	75
Ramon E Ramirez R 2016 · 3.60 FIP	34	SU	3.60	18.4%	6.0%	2.4%	.262	3.49	14.0%	8.2%	40	-0.11	2.37	140	75
Francisco Rodríguez R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SU	3.77	22.1%	8.5%	2.7%	.248	6.90	19.5%	11.0%	25	+3.13	2.71	141	74
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	74
Chris Hatcher R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	18.0%	9.6%	4.6%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	176	73
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	33	SU	5.42	14.3%	10.4%	4.0%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	148	73
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	73
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	19.8%	11.3%	1.21	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19