Luke Jackson
P
Seattle Mariners
+0.3
WAR
Age 34
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.31
FIP4.39
xFIP4.92
SIERA4.86
K%21.4%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%11.1%
IP44
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL3535
CMD4040
K†5050
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p3222.7%
K%
p1717.4%
xwOBA vs
p420.321
SL+2.5 (49%)
FB+1.3 (34%)
CU (15%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 46 | 5 | 73 | 321 | 85 | 37 | 4 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 1.0% | 4.33 | 3.23 | +1.5 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 44 | 0 | 58 | 270 | 62 | 39 | 10 | 19.5% | 15.3% | 4.1% | 5.12 | 5.65 | -0.5 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 52 | 4 | 75 | 336 | 56 | 31 | 6 | 15.8% | 9.5% | 1.9% | 5.16 | 4.01 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 45 | 1 | 62 | 266 | 80 | 28 | 3 | 28.5% | 10.7% | 1.2% | 3.48 | 2.73 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 70 | 0 | 73 | 315 | 106 | 22 | 10 | 33.7% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 3.84 | 2.79 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 19 | 0 | 26 | 132 | 20 | 13 | 2 | 15.2% | 9.8% | 1.5% | 6.84 | 3.87 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 71 | 0 | 64 | 261 | 70 | 27 | 6 | 26.8% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 1.98 | 3.42 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 41 | 1 | 41 | 176 | 56 | 18 | 3 | 30.1% | 9.1% | 2.0% | 3.32 | 2.83 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 54 | 0 | 55 | 242 | 60 | 27 | 7 | 25.1% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.91 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 55 | 0 | 53 | 231 | 42 | 23 | 4 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 1.8% | 4.22 | 3.94 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 41 | 19 | 5 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 2.6% | 4.30 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 37 | 18 | 5 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 33 | 18 | 5 | 20.3% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 497 | 11 | 579 | 2550 | 608 | 271 | 57 | 23.8% | 10.6% | 2.2% | 4.19 | 3.66 | +10.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 172 | 4 | 200 | 880 | 210 | 94 | 20 | 23.8% | 10.6% | 2.2% | 4.19 | 3.66 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Jackson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.61 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 80 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 77 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.81 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.45 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.64 | 3.81 | 208 | 76 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.96 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 4.52 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.56 | 2.57 | 251 | 75 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 75 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 75 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.75 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.7% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.31 | 187 | 75 |
| Josh Lueke R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 74 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 3.37 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.37 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.52 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +1.15 | 3.37 | 144 | 74 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.94 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 74 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.51 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .304 | 3.66 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -0.85 | 2.89 | 326 | 73 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.39 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.11 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.28 | 4.11 | 186 | 73 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 73 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.63 | 18.4% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 3.50 | 14.0% | 8.2% | 40 | -0.13 | 2.37 | 140 | 73 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2024 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 72 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 72 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 72 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 71 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.77 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 533 | 71 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.18 | 23.7% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .253 | 5.14 | 25.0% | 13.8% | 32 | +0.96 | 3.38 | 212 | 71 |
| Francisco Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.72 | 22.1% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .248 | 6.54 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 25 | +2.82 | 2.87 | 141 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.