Blake Mitchell — OGILVIE

Blake MitchellC Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 21 L/R 6'0" / 202 lbs A+ HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION335 act + 223 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†70

AVG/OBP/SLG.160 / .289 / .288

PA223

HR6

SB8

K%43

BB%14

BABIP278

ISO128

MLB%4%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 38 / POW 57

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT38

scouting grade only

POWER57

scouting grade only

EYE56

scouting grade only

SPEED34

scouting grade only

DEFENSE53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$12M	+$12M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$13M	+$13M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+2.3	$14M	+$11M
2031	Arb-2	$8M	+2.4	$13M	+$8M
2032	Arb-3	$11M	+2.4	$12M	+$6M
Totals		$27M		$74M	+$58M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	ACL Royals	—	52	40	4	1	0	0	11	20	0	1	0	100	294	125	419	25	190	38	21	222	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL Royals	—	52	34	5	1	0	0	17	14	0	1	0	147	431	176	608	29	238	27	33	322	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	2 teams	—	486	429	65	12	2	13	47	227	7	26	7	152	246	280	526	128	271	47	10	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	2 teams	—	486	396	92	16	3	18	80	149	7	26	7	232	371	424	795	192	319	31	16	357	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	3 teams	—	338	282	42	8	1	3	49	145	5	14	5	149	286	216	502	67	289	43	14	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	3 teams	—	338	258	57	11	1	4	73	103	5	14	5	221	402	318	720	97	349	30	22	343	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A+	KC	—	335	274	44	9	0	12	55	155	3	18	4	161	307	325	632	164	291	46	16	285	76	-9	+2	+0	+6	+9	0.9
YTD	21	A+	KC	—	335	251	57	12	0	16	78	115	3	18	4	227	416	466	882	239	333	34	23	393	159	+22	+2	+0	+6	+9	4.1
ROS	21	A+	KC	4%	223	187	30	6	0	6	32	96	2	8	2	160	289	288	577	128	282	43	14	277	70	-7	+1	+0	+4	+6	0.4
ROS	21	MLB	KC	4%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		278	40	10	267	63	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	21	A+	KC	—	345	283	45	9	0	12	56	159	3	18	4	159	304	318	622	159	287	46	16	284	76	-9	+2	+0	+6	+10	0.9
TOT	21	A+	KC	—	558	461	74	15	0	18	87	251	5	26	6	160	300	310	610	150	285	45	16	282	74	-16	+3	+0	+10	+16	1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	KC	36%	520	436	76	14	1	16	74	217	5	13	3	174	301	321	622	147	290	42	14	287	78	-13	+1	+1	+9	+15	1.3
2028	23	MLB	KC	49%	520	438	81	15	1	18	72	207	5	11	3	185	307	347	654	162	292	40	14	298	86	-8	+1	+1	+9	+15	1.8
2029	24	MLB	KC	53%	520	438	85	16	1	19	72	201	5	10	3	194	315	365	680	171	293	39	14	306	92	-5	+1	+1	+9	+15	2.1
2030	25	MLB	KC	55%	520	439	86	16	1	20	71	198	5	9	2	196	315	374	688	178	293	38	14	310	95	-3	+1	+1	+9	+15	2.3
2031	26	MLB	KC	56%	520	438	86	16	1	20	72	198	5	8	2	196	317	374	691	178	293	38	14	311	97	-2	+1	+1	+9	+15	2.4
2032	27	MLB	KC	55%	520	438	86	16	1	20	72	198	5	7	2	196	317	374	691	178	293	38	14	312	97	-2	+1	+1	+9	+15	2.4
2033	28	MLB	KC	55%	520	437	85	15	1	20	73	199	5	7	2	195	317	371	687	176	292	38	14	310	96	-2	+1	+0	+9	+15	2.3
2034	29	MLB	KC	53%	520	437	84	15	1	20	73	200	5	6	2	192	315	368	683	176	291	38	14	309	94	-3	+0	-1	+9	+15	2.1
2035	30	MLB	KC	53%	520	437	83	15	1	19	73	201	5	5	1	190	313	359	672	169	289	39	14	306	92	-5	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.9
2036	31	MLB	KC	52%	504	423	79	14	1	18	71	196	5	5	1	187	311	352	663	165	286	39	14	302	89	-6	+1	-2	+9	+14	1.6
2037	32	MLB	KC	52%	489	413	75	13	1	17	69	192	4	4	1	182	305	341	646	160	282	39	14	297	85	-8	+0	-3	+9	+14	1.2
2038	33	MLB	KC	56%	428	361	65	11	1	15	60	171	4	3	1	180	304	341	644	161	276	40	14	290	80	-10	+0	-4	+8	+12	0.7
2039	34	MLB	KC	51%	352	297	50	8	0	11	49	143	3	2	1	168	292	306	599	138	269	41	14	282	74	-10	+0	-4	+6	+10	0.2
2040	35	MLB	KC	47%	294	249	40	6	0	9	41	121	2	2	0	161	284	293	577	133	262	41	14	273	67	-11	+0	-5	+5	+8	-0.2
2027	22	MLB	KC	36%	188	157	27	5	0	6	27	78	2	5	1	172	301	318	620	146	286	41	14	277	70	-6	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2028	23	MLB	KC	49%	256	216	39	7	1	8	36	102	2	6	1	181	303	333	636	153	287	40	14	288	78	-6	+1	+0	+5	+7	0.7
2029	24	MLB	KC	53%	276	233	45	8	1	10	38	107	3	5	1	193	314	365	679	172	288	39	14	295	84	-5	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.9
2030	25	MLB	KC	55%	285	241	46	8	1	10	39	108	3	5	1	191	311	357	668	166	289	38	14	299	87	-4	+1	+0	+5	+8	1.0
2031	26	MLB	KC	56%	290	245	48	9	1	11	40	110	3	5	1	196	316	376	691	180	289	38	14	300	88	-4	+1	+0	+5	+8	1.1
2032	27	MLB	KC	55%	286	241	47	8	1	11	40	109	3	4	1	195	317	373	690	178	288	38	14	300	88	-4	+0	+0	+5	+8	1.0
2033	28	MLB	KC	55%	284	239	45	8	1	10	40	108	3	4	1	188	312	356	668	167	288	38	14	299	87	-4	+0	+0	+5	+8	1.0
2034	29	MLB	KC	53%	277	233	45	8	1	10	39	106	3	3	1	193	316	365	681	172	286	38	14	298	86	-4	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.8
2035	30	MLB	KC	53%	273	231	44	8	1	10	38	106	2	3	1	190	310	364	674	173	285	39	14	295	84	-5	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.7
2036	31	MLB	KC	52%	263	222	40	7	0	9	37	102	2	2	1	180	303	333	636	153	282	39	14	291	81	-6	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.6
2037	32	MLB	KC	52%	254	214	39	7	0	9	36	100	2	2	1	182	306	341	647	159	277	39	14	286	77	-7	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.4
2038	33	MLB	KC	56%	240	202	35	6	0	8	34	96	2	2	0	173	298	322	620	149	272	40	14	280	72	-7	+0	-2	+4	+7	0.2
2039	34	MLB	KC	51%	181	153	26	4	0	6	25	73	1	1	0	170	291	314	604	144	266	40	14	272	67	-7	+0	-2	+3	+5	-0.1
2040	35	MLB	KC	47%	138	117	19	3	0	4	19	57	1	1	0	162	285	291	575	128	258	41	14	264	60	-6	+0	-2	+2	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3501	2953	546	96	8	122	489	1366	32	48	11	185	307	347	654	162	287	39	14	291	81	-77	+5	-8	+63	+99	8.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	548	101	18	1	23	91	254	6	9	2	184	307	347	654	162	285	39	14	291	81	-14	+1	-1	+12	+18	1.6
Career	—			—	7846	6619	1202	217	15	264	1081	3130	77	141	38	182	303	339	642	157	287	40	14	293	82	-155	+13	-14	+140	+222	21.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	548	99	18	1	22	90	259	6	12	3	181	303	338	640	157	284	40	14	293	82	-13	+1	-1	+12	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	ACL Royals	—	52	34	5	1	0	0	17	14	0	1	0	147	431	176	608	29	238	27	33	322	105	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	19	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	20	18	2	0	0	0	1	7	1	1	0	111	200	111	311		182	35	5	162	-18	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	19	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	466	378	90	16	3	18	79	142	6	25	7	238	378	439	817	201	326	30	17	366	138	+20	+2	—	—	+13	3.6
2025	20	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	216	169	35	7	1	2	45	71	0	9	4	207	374	296	670	89	340	33	21	318	102	+0	+0	—	—	+6	0.7
2025	20	ROK	ACL Royals	—	39	28	8	2	0	1	8	10	3	3	1	286	487	464	951	179	412	26	21	435	191	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2025	20	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	83	61	14	2	0	1	20	22	2	2	0	230	434	311	745	82	342	27	24	362	135	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#3Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,506	126	47	188	307	355	+58	+10	11.7	10.0
	/162	664	24	9	188	307	355	+10.9	+1.9	2.2	pk7: 8
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Blake Mitchell (OGILVIE)	21	32→38	47→57	41→34	56	160/300/310	150	285	18	26	45%	16%	74	+1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Randy Florentino 2021 · A	21	43	40→50	42→45	47	204/282/302	97	297	7	6	32%	10%	63	-0.8	179/241/260	81	267	8	5	34%	7%	35	-2.8	183/233/258	75	242	8	4	27%	6%	29	-0.9
●Nolan Gorman 2021 · A	21	39→43	47→60	44→45	36	197/253/335	139	301	15	4	38%	6%	60	-1.0	224/278/404	180	300	26	6	33%	7%	89	+0.9	213/287/426	213	282	31	7	35%	9%	96	+1.2
✕Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	35→45	42→55	45→50	44	176/254/278	102	265	9	7	35%	9%	46	-2.0	196/287/331	135	277	14	9	32%	11%	73	-0.1	224/298/396	172	291	21	8	29%	9%	92	+0.9
●Parker Meadows 2022 · A	22	36→46	43→60	43→55	40	186/246/294	108	264	11	9	33%	6%	46	-2.0	220/283/392	172	278	20	17	28%	8%	87	+0.8	226/293/417	190	275	23	21	26%	8%	95	+1.4
✕Isan Díaz 2018 · A	22	39→42	46→55	45	43	196/268/326	129	288	14	8	35%	8%	64	-0.8	209/275/354	145	294	16	8	32%	8%	74	-0.1	208/287/373	164	275	21	5	31%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Zack Collins 2018 · AA	23	35→43	46→50	41→40	45	175/265/301	125	286	14	2	41%	11%	57	-1.2	193/291/339	146	301	16	3	37%	12%	78	+0.2	188/297/338	150	281	16	2	36%	13%	78	+0.2
✕Omar Martinez 2022 · A	21	39→38	42→45	40	45	189/279/290	101	291	10	4	36%	10%	60	-1.0	197/279/315	118	293	13	5	34%	9%	66	-0.6	177/257/291	114	276	14	3	39%	9%	48	-1.3
✕Max Stassi 2012 · A	21	38→43	43→55	43→40	40	192/254/302	109	285	11	5	35%	7%	51	-1.7	220/270/362	142	293	16	4	30%	5%	74	-0.1	218/304/386	168	282	22	0	30%	10%	93	+0.6
✕Agustín Ramírez 2022 · A	20	37→45	44→55	43→55	39	188/247/306	118	283	11	4	36%	7%	50	-1.8	225/286/368	143	285	16	12	26%	7%	82	+0.5	232/295/411	179	268	22	16	22%	7%	94	+1.3
✕Drew Robinson 2013 · A	21	44→40	42→55	46→50	46	204/291/308	104	315	9	8	35%	10%	69	-0.4	191/267/322	131	285	13	9	35%	9%	63	-0.9	213/286/393	179	309	20	12	36%	9%	85	+0.5
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2009 · A	20	39	43→45	42→50	48	193/294/300	106	278	11	10	32%	10%	69	-0.4	183/263/286	103	286	10	6	37%	8%	52	-1.6	153/236/254	101	237	11	2	38%	9%	32	-0.9
✕Owen Caissie 2023 · A	21	44→53	44→55	44→45	42	206/282/323	117	335	12	8	39%	9%	69	-0.4	229/303/378	149	357	16	8	37%	9%	92	+1.2	232/309/392	160	353	18	7	36%	9%	94	+1.1
●Ryan McMahon 2015 · A	20	41→51	44→55	43→45	39	200/259/321	121	300	10	6	36%	7%	58	-1.2	234/286/391	157	337	16	7	33%	6%	88	+0.9	247/298/412	164	344	17	8	31%	6%	96	+1.3
✕Joe Mack 2023 · A	20	42→40	43→55	46→45	50	196/301/303	107	321	12	4	38%	13%	72	-0.2	203/267/326	123	282	15	3	32%	7%	63	-0.8	212/278/383	171	271	23	5	30%	7%	80	+0.3
✕Michael Pérez 2015 · A	22	36	44→50	41→40	40	179/247/294	116	287	11	3	40%	8%	46	-2.0	191/249/286	95	267	8	4	30%	7%	45	-2.1	221/281/340	119	284	13	0	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Kevin Padlo 2017 · A	21	37→40	46→55	46→50	47	187/275/320	133	269	13	9	34%	10%	66	-0.6	187/271/328	141	273	14	8	34%	9%	66	-0.6	195/265/371	176	262	22	12	34%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Abimelec Ortiz 2023 · A	21	36→40	51→60	43→40	40	194/264/345	150	272	20	7	35%	7%	68	-0.5	213/273/397	184	285	25	4	33%	7%	85	+0.7	210/275/403	192	267	26	2	31%	7%	85	+0.6
●Eric Haase 2015 · A	22	37→44	48→65	42→40	37	194/247/339	144	286	16	3	37%	6%	58	-1.2	192/249/357	165	293	19	4	39%	6%	64	-0.8	226/282/450	225	294	33	2	35%	7%	100	+1.1
✕Dylan Johnston 2009 · A	22	42	46→55	42→50	34	202/254/330	128	327	14	9	41%	6%	59	-1.1	195/250/308	113	354	12	8	45%	6%	51	-1.7	129/190/200	71	267	9	6	52%	7%	-4	-1.8
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	39→45	47→45	45	181/267/268	87	282	7	6	36%	9%	49	-1.8	190/265/267	77	299	5	6	35%	9%	47	-1.9	170/253/254	84	253	7	2	33%	9%	37	-1.0