Colson Montgomery

SS Chicago White Sox

Age 25 L/R 6'3" / 230 lbs MLB HR +4% Svc 1.506 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	22	AAA/INTL2 orgs	618	.221/.343/.398	21	12	70	—	.178/.268/.302
2025	23	AAA/ROKCWS	261	.215/.296/.416	11	4	41	—	.163/.231/.289
2025	23	MLBCWS	284	.239/.311/.529	21	0	128	2.8
2026	24	MLBCWS	638	.197/.283/.403	31	1	89	1.6
2027PROJ	25	MLBCWS	597	.207/.287/.428	31	3	97	2.3
2028PROJ	26	MLBCWS	597	.207/.287/.428	31	2	97	2.3
2029PROJ	27	MLBCWS	589	.206/.287/.425	31	2	96	2.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 6.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.506First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$6M2030Arb-2$8M2031Arb-3$11M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025-2026

Bat Spd90

Barrel%81

xwOBA50

Avg EV46

Speed32

Form.177/.267/.367 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .205/.284/.423

CompsNolan Gorman (age 24) · Will Smith (age 25) · Pedro Álvarez (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8997vR 99

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .287 / .428

PA597

HR31

K%32

BB%8

BABIP253

ISO218

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$59M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.209

POWER60

Barrel%

8112.8

Avg EV

4688.8

Bat Spd

9076.2

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

3226.6

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%39%▼▼42% over 106 PA (60d) · proj 33%

BB%9%▲10% over 106 PA (60d) · proj 8%

ISO.191▼.143 over 91 AB (60d) · proj .218

HR/BB8.3%▼6.5% over 46 BBE (60d) · proj 9.0%

BABIP.248▼.163 over 43 BIP (60d) · proj .252

SLASH.177/.267/.367▼▼proj .205/.284/.423

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 394 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

114

280

—

wRC+

140

128

◀L

wOBA

376

358

◀L

ISO

298

284

◀L

BABIP

266

270

—

22.8%

32.1%

◀◀L

BB%

5.3%

9.3%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.506 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.7	$23M	+$22M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.3	$17M	+$16M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+2.2	$15M	+$11M
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+1.9	$12M	+$6M
2031	Arb-3	$11M	+1.6	$9M	+$2M
Totals		$27M		$76M	+$57M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	19	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	111	94	27	7	0	0	13	22	4	0	1	287	396	362	758	74	375	20	12	352	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	52	48	7	1	0	2	2	15	1	0	0	146	196	292	488	146	156	29	4	215	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	164	132	34	4	1	5	26	26	3	1	0	258	389	417	806	159	282	16	16	361	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	205	170	55	12	1	4	26	42	6	0	1	324	431	476	907	153	402	20	13	401	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	167	131	32	8	2	4	25	36	9	0	1	244	395	427	823	183	308	22	15	372	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	82	58	20	3	0	3	20	15	4	0	2	345	537	552	1.088	207	425	18	24	484	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	45	34	12	3	1	1	11	5	0	2	0	353	511	588	1.099	235	393	11	24	479	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	90	82	20	1	2	3	6	27	1	0	0	244	303	415	718	171	321	30	7	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	573	485	104	21	3	18	69	164	15	8	2	214	330	381	711	167	281	29	12	322	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	45	32	10	2	0	3	10	6	3	4	0	312	511	656	1.167	344	304	13	22	500	225	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	284	255	61	9	1	21	25	83	2	0	0	239	311	529	840	290	263	29	9	362	128	+9	+0	+6	+6	+6	2.8
2025	23	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	242	216	47	10	2	11	19	82	6	2	1	218	299	435	734	218	290	34	8	324	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	19	17	3	0	0	0	2	4	0	2	0	176	263	176	440		231	21	11	216	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	638	568	112	24	0	31	54	227	14	1	1	197	283	403	686	206	260	36	8	305	89	-8	-0	+3	+7	+14	1.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	922	823	173	33	1	52	79	310	16	1	1	210	292	442	734	232	261	34	9	323	105	+5	-0	+9	+13	+20	4.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	111	99	21	5	0	0	8	32	4	0	1	212	297	263	560	51	310	29	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	52	49	7	1	0	2	1	19	1	0	0	143	176	286	462	143	150	37	2	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	164	143	33	3	1	5	16	36	3	1	0	231	321	371	692	140	265	22	10	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	205	178	48	10	1	3	18	59	6	0	1	270	356	388	744	118	363	29	9	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	167	140	30	8	2	3	18	47	9	0	1	214	341	364	706	150	294	28	11	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	82	67	20	3	0	3	11	21	4	0	2	299	427	478	904	179	365	26	13	391	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	45	39	9	2	1	0	6	7	0	2	0	231	333	333	667	103	300	16	13	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	573	507	90	18	3	13	48	199	15	8	2	178	268	302	570	124	253	35	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	284	257	61	9	1	21	24	83	2	0	0	237	307	525	833	288	263	29	8	357	128	+9	+0	+6	+6	+6	2.8
2025	23	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	242	221	37	8	2	6	14	99	6	2	1	167	237	303	540	136	258	41	6	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	19	18	2	0	0	0	1	6	0	2	0	111	158	111	269		186	32	5	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	638	571	111	24	0	30	51	227	14	1	1	194	277	394	671	200	260	36	8	300	89	-8	-0	+3	+7	+14	1.6
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	111	99	21	5	0	0	8	32	4	0	1	212	297	263	560	51	313	29	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	—	111	94	27	7	0	0	13	22	4	0	1	287	396	362	758	74	375	20	12	352	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	421	370	88	15	2	9	35	113	10	1	1	238	320	362	683	124	311	27	8	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A RAW	3 teams	—	421	350	96	17	2	11	54	83	10	1	1	274	386	429	814	154	324	20	13	363	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA MLE	4 teams	—	384	323	77	17	3	9	46	98	14	2	3	238	358	393	751	155	313	26	12	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA RAW	4 teams	—	384	305	84	15	5	11	62	83	14	2	3	275	418	466	883	190	344	22	16	395	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	618	545	96	19	3	14	52	214	18	12	2	176	270	299	569	123	256	35	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	618	517	114	23	3	21	79	170	18	12	2	221	343	398	742	178	283	28	13	335	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	545	496	99	17	3	26	39	188	8	4	1	200	269	403	672	204	257	34	7	295	86	-9	+0	+6	+6	+12	1.6
2025	23	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	545	488	111	19	3	32	46	169	8	4	1	227	304	475	779	248	273	31	8	340	86	-9	+0	+6	+6	+12	1.6
2026	24	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	638	571	111	24	0	30	51	227	14	1	1	194	277	394	671	200	256	36	8	300	89	-8	-0	+3	+7	+14	1.6
2026	24	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	—	638	568	112	24	0	31	54	227	14	1	1	197	283	403	686	206	260	36	8	305	89	-8	-0	+3	+7	+14	1.6
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	111	98	21	5	0	0	8	32	4	0	1	214	297	265	563	51	310	29	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	421	373	88	15	2	9	35	113	10	1	1	236	320	359	680	123	299	27	8	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA MLE	4 teams	—	384	321	77	17	3	9	46	98	14	2	3	240	358	396	753	156	315	26	12	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	618	543	96	19	3	14	52	214	18	12	2	177	270	300	570	123	253	35	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	545	493	99	17	3	26	39	188	8	4	1	201	269	406	675	205	258	34	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	638	568	111	24	0	30	51	227	14	1	1	195	277	396	673	201	260	36	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	618	543	96	19	3	14	52	214	18	12	2	177	270	300	570	123	253	35	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	545	493	99	17	3	26	39	188	8	4	1	201	269	406	675	205	258	34	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	638	568	111	24	0	30	51	227	14	1	1	195	277	396	673	201	260	36	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CWS	100%	604	539	110	21	1	31	49	197	11	3	1	206	286	423	709	217	252	33	8	312	97	-2	+0	+5	+6	+13	2.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	CWS	100%	597	532	110	21	1	31	49	194	11	3	1	207	287	428	715	221	253	32	8	314	97	-2	+0	+5	+6	+13	2.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	100%	597	532	109	21	1	31	49	194	11	2	1	205	286	423	709	217	252	32	8	312	97	-2	+0	+5	+6	+13	2.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	100%	589	525	108	21	1	30	48	193	11	2	1	204	285	420	706	216	251	33	8	311	96	-3	+0	+5	+6	+13	2.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	100%	575	512	104	20	1	29	47	189	11	0	0	203	283	416	699	213	250	33	8	308	95	-4	+0	+4	+6	+12	1.9
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	100%	557	497	100	19	1	28	45	185	10	0	0	200	281	410	691	209	249	33	8	305	92	-5	+0	+3	+6	+12	1.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	CWS	100%	542	483	96	18	1	27	44	182	10	0	0	198	277	402	679	205	247	34	8	300	89	-7	+0	+2	+6	+12	1.3
2033	31	MLB MLE	CWS	100%	523	467	90	17	0	25	42	177	9	0	0	193	272	392	665	199	243	34	8	294	85	-9	+0	+1	+6	+11	0.9
2034	32	MLB MLE	CWS	100%	500	449	84	16	0	23	39	172	8	0	0	188	266	379	645	191	238	34	8	286	80	-12	+0	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2035	33	MLB MLE	CWS	100%	465	419	76	14	0	21	36	163	7	0	0	181	258	363	621	181	231	35	8	277	73	-15	+0	-1	+5	+10	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	100%	597	532	109	21	1	31	49	194	11	2	1	207	287	428	715	221	253	32	8	314	97	-2	+0	+5	+6	+13	2.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	100%	589	525	109	21	1	31	48	193	11	2	1	206	287	425	712	219	252	33	8	313	96	-3	+0	+5	+6	+13	2.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	100%	575	512	105	20	1	30	47	189	11	0	0	204	285	421	705	216	251	33	8	310	95	-4	+0	+4	+6	+12	1.9
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	100%	557	497	100	19	1	28	45	185	10	0	0	202	282	415	697	213	250	33	8	307	92	-5	+0	+3	+6	+12	1.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	CWS	100%	542	483	96	18	1	27	44	182	10	0	0	199	278	407	685	208	248	34	8	302	89	-7	+0	+2	+6	+12	1.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	CWS	100%	523	467	90	17	0	25	42	177	9	0	0	195	274	397	670	202	244	34	8	296	85	-9	+0	+1	+6	+11	0.9
2034	32	MLB CTX	CWS	100%	500	449	85	16	0	24	39	172	8	0	0	189	267	383	651	194	239	34	8	288	80	-12	+0	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2035	33	MLB CTX	CWS	100%	465	419	76	14	0	21	36	163	7	0	0	182	259	367	626	184	232	35	8	279	73	-15	+0	-1	+5	+10	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5270	4707	943	179	6	269	429	1765	93	5	3	200	280	412	692	212	250	33	8	306	88	-51	-0	+29	+59	+114	15.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	116	22	1	33	53	218	11	1	0	200	279	411	690	212	249	34	8	306	88	-6	-0	+4	+7	+14	1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	7662	6820	1369	264	17	333	630	2521	156	27	12	201	283	391	674	190	259	33	8	298	88	-52	+0	+34	+66	+127	17.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	115	22	1	28	53	214	13	2	1	199	280	385	665	187	256	33	8	298	88	-6	+0	+4	+7	+14	2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 242 PAwOBA .316 → .234 (−82)K% 33.9% → 40.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.88%	÷0.996	×1.200	—	—	40.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.85%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.78%
HBP% /PA	2.48%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	2.45%
Singles /BIP	17.91%	÷1.002	×0.930	×0.969	×1.050	16.91%
Doubles /BIP	7.46%	÷0.980	×0.830	×0.969	×1.050	6.43%
Triples /BIP	1.49%	÷0.961	×0.970	×0.969	×1.050	1.53%
Home runs /BIP	8.21%	÷1.320	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.57%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .316 → .234; ISO .218 → .132; BABIP .290 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL White Sox · 19 PAwOBA .212 → .147 (−64)K% 21.1% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.05%	÷0.998	×1.440	—	—	30.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷0.994	×0.620	—	×0.965	6.34%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.965	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷0.980	×0.820	—	×0.965	18.63%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.039	×0.720	—	×0.965	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.720	—	×0.965	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.128	×0.780	—	×0.965	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 96, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 100, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .212 → .147; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .231 → .186. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 573 PAwOBA .315 → .254 (−61)K% 28.6% → 34.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.62%	÷0.991	×1.200	—	—	34.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.87%	÷1.025	×0.690	—	×1.050	8.39%
HBP% /PA	2.62%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	2.58%
Singles /BIP	19.31%	÷1.033	×0.930	×0.985	×1.050	17.98%
Doubles /BIP	6.54%	÷0.994	×0.830	×0.985	×1.050	5.65%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷1.049	×0.970	×0.985	×1.050	0.89%
Home runs /BIP	5.61%	÷1.016	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.06%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 110, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .315 → .254; ISO .167 → .126; BABIP .281 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABirmingham Barons · 167 PAwOBA .363 → .315 (−48)K% 21.6% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.56%	÷0.938	×1.220	—	—	28.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.97%	÷0.995	×0.680	—	×1.050	10.74%
HBP% /PA	5.39%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	4.75%
Singles /BIP	18.95%	÷1.069	×0.920	×1.033	×1.050	17.69%
Doubles /BIP	8.42%	÷0.961	×0.910	×1.033	×1.050	8.65%
Triples /BIP	2.11%	÷0.967	×0.880	×1.033	×1.050	2.08%
Home runs /BIP	4.21%	÷1.013	×0.800	—	×1.050	3.49%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 114, 2B 92, 3B 93, K 88, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .363 → .315; ISO .183 → .168; BABIP .308 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 82 PAwOBA .464 → .391 (−74)K% 18.3% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.29%	÷0.948	×1.310	—	—	25.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.73%	÷0.943	×0.600	—	×1.027	13.55%
HBP% /PA	4.88%	—	×0.770	—	×1.027	3.86%
Singles /BIP	32.56%	÷1.011	×0.870	—	×1.027	28.79%
Doubles /BIP	6.98%	÷1.030	×0.780	—	×1.027	5.43%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.008	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.98%	÷1.017	×0.880	—	×1.027	6.20%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 106, 3B 102, K 90, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .464 → .391; ISO .207 → .195; BABIP .425 → .365. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL White Sox · 45 PAwOBA .463 → .335 (−128)K% 11.1% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.11%	÷0.994	×1.440	—	—	16.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.22%	÷0.951	×0.620	—	×0.985	14.28%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.985	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.14%	÷0.991	×0.820	—	×0.985	19.66%
Doubles /BIP	10.34%	÷0.942	×0.720	—	×0.985	7.79%
Triples /BIP	3.45%	÷1.099	×0.720	—	×0.985	2.23%
Home runs /BIP	3.45%	÷2.194	×0.780	—	×0.985	1.21%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 339, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 120, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .463 → .335; ISO .235 → .146; BABIP .393 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 205 PAwOBA .397 → .323 (−74)K% 20.5% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.49%	÷0.972	×1.360	—	—	28.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.68%	÷1.021	×0.690	—	×1.030	8.83%
HBP% /PA	2.93%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	2.35%
Singles /BIP	29.69%	÷1.050	×0.920	×1.021	×1.030	27.38%
Doubles /BIP	9.38%	÷0.976	×0.830	×1.021	×1.030	8.38%
Triples /BIP	0.78%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.021	×1.030	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	3.12%	÷1.172	×0.800	—	×1.030	2.20%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 110, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 94, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .397 → .323; ISO .153 → .118; BABIP .402 → .363. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 164 PAwOBA .357 → .305 (−52)K% 15.9% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.85%	÷0.953	×1.310	—	—	21.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.85%	÷1.037	×0.600	—	×1.042	9.56%
HBP% /PA	1.83%	—	×0.770	—	×1.042	1.47%
Singles /BIP	22.64%	÷0.956	×0.870	×1.028	×1.042	22.07%
Doubles /BIP	3.77%	÷1.056	×0.780	×1.028	×1.042	2.99%
Triples /BIP	0.94%	÷1.150	×0.850	×1.028	×1.042	0.75%
Home runs /BIP	4.72%	÷0.955	×0.880	—	×1.042	4.53%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 91, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 91, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .357 → .305; ISO .159 → .151; BABIP .282 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jose Valentin'92-'07 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,317 PA	9.5	6,317	249	136	233*	309*	433*	+53	+78	31.1	27.3
/162	664	26	14	+5.6	+8.2	3.3	pk7: 24
#2Tony Batista'96-'07 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,959 PA	7.5	4,959	221	47	240*	288*	438*	+17	+34	16.1	16.1
/162	664	30	6	+2.3	+4.5	2.2	pk7: 16
#3Paul DeJonglast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,500 PA	5.3	3,500	146	29	229	294	416	+36	+35	16.1	16.0
/162	664	28	6	+6.8	+6.6	3.1	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	8.8	5,867	296	9	201	278	413	+63	+59	16.9	15.5
/162	664	34	1	+7.1	+6.7	1.9	pk7: 14
#4Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	6.7	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
/162	664	27	11	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#6Shane Andrews'95-'02 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,924 PA	2.9	1,924	86	7	210*	285*	411*	+3	+36	6.3	6.3
/162	664	30	2	+0.9	+12.4	2.2	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colson Montgomery (OGILVIE)	25	45	60	50	45	204/284/419	216	252	31	3	33%	8%	97	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nolan Gorman 2024 · MLB	24	43→46	61→60	48→45	45	235/305/449	214	302	31	8	33%	9%	110	+2.1	208/285/399	191	281	27	6	35%	10%	92	+0.7	186/269/358	172	251	25	3	36%	10%	77	-0.2
●Will Smith 2020 · MLB	25	37→47	60→65	50→45	47	213/294/425	211	253	29	6	29%	9%	101	+1.4	249/339/473	224	277	28	4	21%	10%	128	+3.4	256/352/455	198	279	24	3	18%	10%	131	+3.3
●Pedro Álvarez 2014 · MLB	27	42→48	62→65	48→45	44	236/297/461	225	287	32	3	30%	8%	111	+2.1	239/304/458	219	281	31	6	27%	8%	112	+2.2	237/305/452	216	273	31	5	26%	9%	112	+1.6
✕Michael Chavis 2020 · MLB	24	46	58→60	46→45	41	244/302/441	198	318	28	5	32%	7%	107	+1.9	231/281/403	172	308	23	6	32%	5%	91	+0.6	221/263/383	162	291	21	4	31%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Will Middlebrooks 2014 · MLB	25	45→48	57→60	48→45	40	244/284/430	186	286	27	7	26%	5%	98	+1.2	211/251/346	135	266	17	5	27%	5%	66	-1.1	193/230/337	144	242	19	2	29%	4%	55	-1.2
●Hunter Goodman 2024 · MLB	24	39→49	57→65	45→40	39	214/270/414	200	272	26	4	32%	6%	90	+0.6	228/281/441	213	278	28	4	29%	6%	100	+1.3	232/286/458	227	274	32	3	28%	6%	107	+1.6
●Jack Suwinski 2023 · MLB	25	40→43	56→60	45→50	46	215/296/406	191	289	25	8	34%	10%	97	+1.1	209/298/399	190	280	25	13	33%	10%	97	+1.1	198/293/382	184	263	24	15	33%	11%	91	+0.5
✕J.P. Arencibia 2011 · MLB	25	40→49	57→65	43→30	40	223/266/419	196	262	26	2	27%	5%	89	+0.5	220/268/419	199	264	27	3	28%	6%	90	+0.6	211/256/405	194	251	27	1	29%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Bobby Bradley 2021 · MLB	25	41→44	61→65	47→40	39	223/281/441	218	308	30	3	37%	7%	100	+1.3	199/271/384	185	286	26	4	38%	7%	83	+0.1	171/249/353	182	233	27	0	39%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Andrew Lambo 2014 · MLB	25	44→51	57→60	47→45	40	235/286/431	196	301	25	6	31%	6%	99	+1.3	238/285/414	176	296	21	6	26%	6%	95	+0.9	241/287/398	157	290	16	4	23%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Aristides Aquino 2020 · MLB	26	39→41	62→65	49→50	38	224/270/443	219	267	32	10	30%	5%	97	+1.1	221/290/430	209	285	29	9	32%	8%	101	+1.4	194/272/374	181	273	23	6	37%	9%	80	-0.1
●Kelly Shoppach 2006 · MLB	26	40→50	58→60	46→30	42	221/295/415	194	284	27	4	32%	7%	99	+1.3	241/306/436	195	332	24	3	33%	7%	107	+1.9	240/330/457	217	321	26	0	32%	8%	123	+1.5
✕Lewin Díaz 2022 · MLB	25	39→46	59→60	48→30	41	221/269/426	206	245	28	4	24%	5%	92	+0.7	210/272/365	155	254	20	4	26%	7%	79	-0.2	199/267/338	139	243	18	2	26%	7%	69	-0.8
●Jo Adell 2024 · MLB	25	42→47	58→65	50	39	224/285/429	205	300	26	11	34%	6%	99	+1.2	226/289/430	204	271	28	11	28%	7%	101	+1.4	228/290/425	197	264	28	9	26%	6%	101	+1.3
✕Adam Keim 2006 · AA	25	43→41	60→65	44→40	38	240/270/444	204	271	30	4	25%	4%	97	+1.1	220/253/345	125	252	14	6	19%	4%	65	-1.2	198/220/268	70	222	4	4	13%	2%	32	-1.5
✕Ian Stewart 2010 · MLB	25	46→55	58→60	48→45	48	240/317/448	208	299	25	9	28%	9%	115	+2.4	221/294/392	171	278	21	7	28%	9%	93	+0.8	208/281/359	151	260	19	5	27%	8%	81	-0.0
✕AJ Reed 2018 · MLB	25	43→53	57→60	46→30	46	229/301/423	193	298	26	2	32%	9%	103	+1.5	205/274/379	174	280	23	3	34%	8%	83	+0.1	186/257/356	170	248	23	0	34%	8%	71	-0.6
✕Renato Núñez 2018 · MLB	24	37→47	57→60	46→30	39	210/259/398	188	255	26	3	30%	5%	82	-0.0	238/298/415	177	294	23	3	27%	7%	100	+1.3	246/311/421	175	298	23	1	25%	7%	106	+1.3
★Matt Chapman 2018 · MLB	25	36→46	61→65	42→50	43	208/278/431	223	268	29	6	34%	8%	97	+1.1	254/332/503	249	303	30	3	26%	9%	132	+3.7	262/344/526	264	302	32	1	24%	10%	143	+3.6
●Karim Garcia 2002 · MLB	26	46→49	60	49→50	44	250/307/466	215	292	29	8	26%	6%	115	+2.4	264/300/475	211	285	32	4	20%	5%	115	+2.4	267/312/437	170	304	19	10	19%	6%	108	+1.0

Colson Montgomery

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps